mexxico said:
After this change game is runned hundreds of days for testing and still I am testing, I requested some player's save files who complained about their destroyed caravans. What I see is everyday 1 caravan is destroyed in all Calradia in average, in some days this number is 0 in some days it is 2. In total there are about 100 caravans. This means that average days your caravan survives is about 100 days.
To see your caravan 100th day is : 0.99^100 = 0.37 (37%)
In 100 days one caravan brings you 60K profit in average. In total you invested 18K and return is 60K in 100 days. This is average situation. However we cannot guarentee your caravan will not be destroyed at initial days. I know if this happens you become disapointed.
Of course there can be several problems. I see that caravans are not selling their prisoners and this probably slows them down after some point also they gain you relationship with notables after their battles with looters. These will be fixed. There can be some other problems too we will deeply examine it and make it better in next patches.