Ukraine Today

[Pentagathoos]

Weaver do you not think there's a chance that some amongst the Russian leadership have realised that there is no real victory in Ukraine? Even if they managed to soundly defeat the Ukrainian army in a war of attrition, they'd still have to expend vast military resources on trying to control a population that hates them. I'm not really sure what the gain is, and asides from the cost of manpower and resources they've also lost so much influence. Their sphere of influence in the caucus and in central asia seems to mean nothing at the moment, continuing their invasion of Ukraine seems like am almost guaranteed way to weaken their empire rather than strengthen it. Putin can't back out without losing too much face to survive, but if he's removed it seems like a good way to reset the agenda.

 

[Weaver]

We don't want to be dragged into joining your ongoing war and send soldiers to die there. If you think this is somehow hypocritical, you simply don't care about us.

Your words, not mine.
I think that hypocrisy is something that happens on an interpersonal level. When nations are involved we usually use different vocabulary. Like engaging in realpolitik or prioritising the national interest.

The US could always go with a Coalition of the Willing, at least Truss is willing if not able, but that's not quite NATO anymore and Russia is not Iraq.

More like Iran.
But that’s beyond the point. Military goals here are completely different and actually attainable. Secure a third country’s border and that’s it.

Weaver do you not think there's a chance that some amongst the Russian leadership have realised that there is no real victory in Ukraine? Even if they managed to soundly defeat the Ukrainian army in a war of attrition, they'd still have to expend vast military resources on trying to control a population that hates them. I'm not really sure what the gain is, and asides from the cost of manpower and resources they've also lost so much influence. Their sphere of influence in the caucus and in central asia seems to mean nothing at the moment, continuing their invasion of Ukraine seems like am almost guaranteed way to weaken their empire rather than strengthen it. Putin can't back out without losing too much face to survive, but if he's removed it seems like a good way to reset the agenda.

I think that Russian establishment does not look at it like that.
I think the victory they seek in Ukraine is truly not conquered territory or population even though it too is very important.

If you ever listened to Putin's addresses you would have noticed that he pays much more attention to NATO, the collective West, and the notorious anglo-saxons (it's always a "kenning", if you will, for the US of A) than to Ukraine. He openly says that his ultimate goal is not as much to conquer Ukraine but to dismantle the post WW2 "world order" where USA is the guarantor of global stability or status quo. His goal is to show that USA was a very bad guarantor of peace (which he is not too wrong about) and that they are now completely impotent in that role. He wants to herald in the multi-polar world (a free-for-all era) where the USA will isolate itself and go back to a regional power while all around the world a geopolitical redistribution of spheres of influence will commence.

If they annex a swath of land and USA does very little, that would not be good enough. I think they're really thrilled about a nuclear scenario where USA does not respond in a sufficiently decisive way. They don't need to conquer Ukraine to win, they need to show the world that USA has no balls. To create a climate where China can try playing its hand and seize Taiwan. And very quickly the whole global security system goes to ****. When the dust settles down, a new system will form where Russia hopes to play a much more prominent role.

When I say this war can bring terrible things to the whole world I'm often brushed off as an alarmist or as a desperate guy trying to drag other countries into a business that should not worry them. But I really think there's a big picture here. The response to such threats in the past that held the world together was "if you use the nukes, then we use the nukes". The response "if you use the nukes, we will announce more sanctions" means the end of a relatively stable post-ww2 era. Seeing such a response every non-nuclear country suddenly realizes that the rules have changed and they no longer can exist remaining neutral, not having a huge modern army, suspending their nuclear program, etc. I can't at this point fathom the kind of a world this would be.

 

[Vermillion_Hawk]

I definitely agree with the latter part about Putin trying to call the West's collective bluff, but I think it's a very bad gamble in that even absent nuclear war, the Russian state has weakened itself so significantly at this point that if China were to start a war, it would most likely be against Russia for its resource-rich hinterlands as opposed to a political target with little material value.

 

[Weaver]

I definitely agree with the latter part about Putin trying to call the West's collective bluff, but I think it's a very bad gamble in that even absent nuclear war, the Russian state has weakened itself so significantly at this point that if China were to start a war, it would most likely be against Russia for its resource-rich hinterlands as opposed to a political target with little material value.

I actually don't think China is at all interested in Russian territory.
Chinese government is way more progressive than Russian and I don't think they would consider some territory gains a proper geopolitical prize. I believe that while wars of conquest were waged for material gains in the past, now they are strictly a net loss economically. They want Taiwan because they believe its existence to be an affront to their sovereignty. They want more influence in the Pacific because it's their security. But some rural undeveloped land with sparsely settled white trash? Why? It's cheaper just to buy stuff from Russians, given they're so desperate they've built the infrastructure using their own money and sell to China at a discount. No, they're really good at just manifesting their soft power. Russian hinterlands are safe.

The only plausible scenario of a collapse that I see is a further partition of the empire into a slew of nation-states. But that's also unlikely because the "national republics" are kept in such abject poverty and ignorance, while their ruling class is so integrated into the federal cleptocracy, that they likely won't be able to form a national consciousness.

 

[NPC99]

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Adorno]

Incredibly Stalin! I always wondered whether Putin really believes that the Russian society of today is the same society Stalin commanded ... but for the time being, the difference doesn't seem to be all too great.

Russia smuggling Ukrainian grain to help pay for Putin's war

BEIRUT (AP) — When the bulk cargo ship Laodicea docked in Lebanon last summer, Ukrainian diplomats said the vessel was carrying grain stolen by Russia and urged Lebanese officials to impound the ship.

apnews.com

Occupiers dismantle monument to victims of Holodomor in Mariupol

IRYNA BALACHUK — WEDNESDAY, 19 OCTOBER 2022, 12:41

www.pravda.com.ua

- Putin acting like Stalin
- Russia stealing grain from Ukraine
- Removes monument for victims of Holodomor

 

[NPC99]

Occupiers dismantle monument to victims of Holodomor in Mariupol

IRYNA BALACHUK — WEDNESDAY, 19 OCTOBER 2022, 12:41

www.pravda.com.ua

- Putin acting like Stalin
- Russia stealing grain from Ukraine
- Removes monument for victims of Holodomor

Stalin's still the better movie critic:
"Stalin thought the actor John Wayne (1907-1979) was a threat to Communism and should be assassinated. Assassins were supposedly sent to LA, but they failed to kill Wayne before Stalin’s death. When Stalin’s successor Khrushchev met “the Duke” later, he told Wayne that he had rescinded the order." https://www.factretriever.com/joseph-stalin-facts

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

Well, a lot of interesting developments these last couple of days.

Russian troops appear to be publicly retreating from the city of Kherson, however the Ukrainian Army is justifiable wary that it could be a setup.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian Army keeps getting more and more armored vehicles, weaponry and winter supplies while the Russian Army keeps getting more and more conscripts send to the front who have to divide the few resources they have among a growing number of people.

I am still wondering and asking myself the same question I asked myself a couple of months into the war. What would have to happen for Putin to end it? Would he let himself get pushed out of UA entirely? Crimea included? Would he concede before that? Would he escalate the situation before it could happen?

@Weaver Considering you're our "man on the ground", what'd you think that the most likely scenario is?

 

[NPC99]

Withdrawal to the East bank of the Dnieper seems sensible, either to hunker down during winter or to free troops for Russian offensives elsewhere. However, all previous troop reports indicated more Russian conscripts arriving on the West bank and entrenching deeper lines of defence. The only reports I've seen of troop withdrawals related to worn down regular units. Tricky to extract everyone in the face of resistance. If they truly intend to withdraw, will some conscripts be abandoned to secure everyone else's exit? https://odessa-journal.com/arestovich-the-situation-in-kherson-bad-and-good-news/
Difficult to know what will happen to the dam, which is critical to Crimea's water supply, but mined by Russia - bursting it caused widespread devastation during WW2. https://uatv.ua/en/78-years-ago-soviets-blown-dnieper-hydroelectric-station-dam/
Putin will survive and will expect to renew his assault on Ukraine at a later date. Reports of inadequate winter clothing for Russian conscripts beggar belief. If they are more than propaganda, who knows what impact a hard winter will have on future morale and effectiveness.

On the home front, it seems that 'suicides' such as these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_businessmen_mystery_deaths aren't enough as Prigozhin is now urging "Stalinist repressions" for Russian tycoons who are unsupportive of war efforts.

 

[Weaver]

@Weaver Considering you're our "man on the ground", what'd you think that the most likely scenario is?

Unfortunately, my geographic situation does not really make me a more astute analyst. But alright.
As far as I understand Putin's MO at this point, he's the kind of a "make a move and see what happens" guy. Active first, then reactive. Make noise, see the response, act accordingly to the situation. Opportunities are his key resource, he always wants to be able to move forward (if the response is weak), backward (if the response is strong) or tangentially (if he's not sure where he stands). Starting this war was very uncharacteristic of him, he was too sure of the whole endeavour, the move was too blunt and he did not have many opportunities when things went awry. As he couldn't backpaddle from his failures he was a bit confused and lost. But as the war progresses he is steadily building his opportunity base by creating narratives, most of them misleading or just false.

The narratives just off the top of my head are:
"Ukraine is not a real state, Ukrainians are Russians who speak funny, so we need to purge the entire country of nationalists and make it a part of Russia."
"Wherever people speak Russian, it's Russia, so we will conquer and annex only those territories."
"This war was started to protect DNR and LNR and enforce our claim on Crimea. All other territories can go back to Ukraine, we never wanted them."
"We never wanted to fight Ukraine, Ukrainians are our brothers. Our hand was forced by the collective West. If anglo-saxons show that they respect us and guarantee our geopolitical security, we can withdraw our troops from Ukraine but maybe keep Crimea."

And so on. Depending on how Ukraine and allied leaders act, any of these narratives may dominate in Putin's rhetoric and planning. What's important, Putin is now once again reacting. And I'm not sure who benefits from this, given how politically weak many of his adversaries are.

All I know is the more help we get, the less Putin will be able to achieve.

Now that he destroyed half of our civilian infrastructure and we're entering a winter when many homes will have no heating or electricity (my house has electricity only half of the day, for example. Imagine how people live closer to the front), there's nothing else he can scare us with. So we're not giving up and as long as we keep fighting and get support, he can't win.

 

[Adorno]

Very apt analysis. Well put.

... So we're not giving up and as long as we keep fighting and get support, he can't win.

Nice to hear. I assume all the raids on infrastructure is mostly to affect the morale of the civilian population.
The casualties are few and it doesn't affect the actual war effort by the front.

Overall it looks like Russia's tactic is to make Ukraine run out of "bullets" before Russsia runs out of troops.
But with continued military aid from the West (including training of troops) it's going to be a large bloodbath before Russia can recapture just smaller parts of the territories they've retreated from.

I'm a little nervous about this retreat from Kherson. Russia has been open about it, which is suspicious.
I hope they haven't mined the whole area or some other trickery.

 

[NPC99]

or some other trickery

Who knows? After publicly showing their concern for the lives of west bank conscripts and reporting their suspicions about a Ukranian dirty bomb, they might nuke the dam and blame Zelensky. Back home no one would believe Russia would use a nuke on a dam they'd already mined and any Western doubts would undermine foreign support for the war. Might even stiffen the desire of surviving Russian conscripts to fight for revenge in a pointless war they have no other stake in.

Edit - seems beyond all that now https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...rs-putin-nuclear-weapons-latest-b2222794.html Abandoning their wounded is no orderly withdrawal.

 

[Weaver]

Very apt analysis. Well put.

Thank you!

Nice to hear. I assume all the raids on infrastructure is mostly to affect the morale of the civilian population.
The casualties are few and it doesn't affect the actual war effort by the front.

Right. The casualties are there albeit not severe, but more casualties are indirect. Blacked out hospitals and cold homes mostly, afaik.
That said, I comfort myself with the thought that all those rockets and drones were "wasted" on us, civilians. The army is not hindered by that.

Overall it looks like Russia's tactic is to make Ukraine run out of "bullets" before Russsia runs out of troops.
But with continued military aid from the West (including training of troops) it's going to be a large bloodbath before Russia can recapture just smaller parts of the territories they've retreated from.

We need to free as much of our land as possible during this stage of the conflict, we'll never have another chance.
Their strategy now is to veer the war into the diplomatic arena where they can stall until they can train troops and purchase weaponry. Then they will have the initiative and decide whether they want to continue the invasion or go for a ceasefire while keeping the constant tension.

I'm a little nervous about this retreat from Kherson. Russia has been open about it, which is suspicious.
I hope they haven't mined the whole area or some other trickery.

Their tactic when they retreat is always to wreak as much havoc and destruction as they possibly can. And of course to loot everything that's not cemented into the ground. There is no doubt the whole region is heavily mined, we've seen this after the withdrawal in the North and in Kharkov. What other tricks they may have we can only wonder.

Who knows? After publicly showing their concern for the lives of west bank conscripts and reporting their suspicions about a Ukranian dirty bomb, they might nuke the dam and blame Zelensky. Back home no one would believe Russia would use a nuke on a dam they'd already mined and any Western doubts would undermine foreign support for the war. Might even stiffen the desire of surviving Russian conscripts to fight for revenge in a pointless war they have no other stake in.

Don't expect anyone to buy that, given that if AFU considered blowing the dam, they'd blow it before Russians retreated. To hole them up in a trap. Now what's the use?
Blowing up the dam is rather detrimental to RAF in military logic. And useless politically. I think they won't do it. But of course, you never know with these shmucks.

 

[NPC99]

Russia's Wagner Mercenary Group Announces Border Militia Plan - The Moscow Times

The head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said on Friday that his organization had started training civilians in Russian regions bordering Ukraine to form a militia and build fortifications. “Wagner is helping and will keep helping the population in border areas to learn...

www.themoscowtimes.com

The Wagner Group training a border militia to defend Russia seems to be designed to promote Prigozhin's political standing, convince Russians of a non-existent threat from the West and potentially release garrison troops for active service in Ukraine.
Reports from Bakhmut suggest cynical use of conscripts as sacrificial goats by the Wagner Group to identify the location of Ukrainian artillery for counter-battery fire.
No doubt its safer for Prigozhin's mercenaries to train militias, operate as barrier battalions policing desertions or conduct war crimes against civilians or prisoners than risk their lives on the front lines.

 

[Weaver]

As expected after the Kherson retreat we're having another terror attack against the civilian population. Right now.
According to the reports another 70+ rockets are flying toward our big cities in the first two waves. More waves likely coming. I'm hearing explosions. Electricity died.

 

[Adorno]

This 'live reporting' from a war is really disturbing.
I hope you're safe and there's enough anti air missile systems to at least prevent total blackouts and mass murder.
What's the shelter/bunker situation? Are there any and are people using them?

 

[danEN]

RUSSIA JUST BOMBED POLAND WERE ALL GONNA FATALLY DIE THE END IS COMING

 

[NPC99]

RUSSIA JUST BOMBED POLAND WERE ALL GONNA FATALLY DIE THE END IS COMING

Depends what action NATO "deems necessary" under Article 5. I doubt the President of Lithuania's tweets will carry much weight.
Article 5 was only invoked re September 11 previously. A 1,000 Lithuanian troops served in Afganistan.
2,996 Americans died from the 9/11 attack and America was deliberately targeted. 2 Poles killed is horrible but these were stray missiles - Poland wasn't targeted.
Who knows what Biden will support. It would be nice if NATO takes out the launch site as a warning about piss poor aiming, but I doubt we'll be that aggressive.

There have been previous incidents without loss of life https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/poli...ntentional-conflict-russia-ukraine/index.html

 

[Mad Vader]

Poland needs to retaliate. Send the other Kaczynski to land a plane in Russia.

 

[NPC99]

Stupid response from Russian Defence minister on Telegram: "Statements by Polish media and officials about Russian missiles hitting Polish territory are a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation,"

Reports from France say NATO and Poland currently involved in a "removal of doubt" exercise. Presumably, forensic examination of the wreckage and radar records of flightpaths.

In any event, the impact on NATO is minimal compared to the 80 or so Russian missiles that rained down on civilian targets in Ukraine. A NATO missile defence in Eastern Europe also putting an umbrella over Ukrainian cities would be a great response.