[Werewolf] – Werewolf: The Bareboning – Day 3 – Nom, nom, nom...
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Mag's attack on Vieira feels contrived. I don't feel like that would evoke such a strong gut response. Eternal, why do you (more or less) agree with Magorian? Xardob, why do you think it proves Vieira innocent?
I doubt it. I get that it's supposed to be random, but I really doubt they are both wolves, since they were both wolves last game.
Orgasmo said:
I doubt it. I get that it's supposed to be random, but I really doubt they are both wolves, since they were both wolves last game.
It does, doesn't it? It feels like he just saw that Vieira's post fitted into a template and rolled with it.Moose! said:
It doesn't, but my first reaction upon reading that post was innocent.
I take a very different view from Mag in this instance. Unless you're dealing with a very specific type of wolf (me, for example) wolves don't go out of their way to draw attention to themselves. It creates an unnecessary WIFOM scenario with them at the suspicious end. Wolves usually like WIFOM the other way around.
Gambler's fallacy. Must I teach you guys basic statistics every other game?
Gut feeling. I liked his post. Seemed spontaneous.Jock said:
I think you're innocent, so I should take you at your word, which means you're telling the truth about being a wolf. But then you're a wolf and I can't trust you and so I should trust my initial read that you're innocent. And this leads me to believe you again about being a wolf. And so on.The Doge of Benis said:
Xardob said:Since guessing the wolves would be no fun to you in this game, you're going for guessing what we'll all do?Magorian Aximand said:Woo! Good to see the old Hammy account active again. Also nice to be playing in a game with an All-Star roster.
Day one prediction: Vieira turtles, Eternal goes after Xardob for playstyle reasons, and we end up lynching Jock for making a mistake. Do notice that these game predictions work regardless of allegiance of any of the participants.
Going for a similar first post strategy to Kronic's Forum Affair. Predictions that contain some kind of pressure. I just couldn't finish with anything as provocative as, "So Koenig and Pachinko, which of you should we lynch today?" because there isn't anything quite so easy.
Moose! said:
Contrived? I attacked the only questionable post in the game at the time. That's called pressure. What's important from there is how Vieira responds. More on that later.
Moose! said:
You're too smart to make this kind of mistake. What's up with this?
Xardob said:
Isn't that how I usually identify wolves? "Fits the profile" is a phrase I've used quite a lot. Don't get me started on wolf tells again... When something matches the kind of behavior I look for, I jump on it and read reactions. The process isn't contrived in the slightest. However, the approach can be. Because that's how pressure is created. "Well, this is kinda suspicious, but it really might not mean that much" won't get Vieira to do anything, and won't get reactions from anyone else either. Provocation is discussion. Discussion is a village's lifeblood.
Xardob said:
I'm admittedly bad at reading day one joke posts, at least prior to the information we have to work with on day two, but we can't deny that this particular joke from Vieira matches the behavior of previous wolves. Not exclusively, as I pointed out, but it's worth noticing.
Jock said:
Is this in reference to Vieira? Do you think it was actually wolfy?
That's it for direct replies, now for some hunting:
Vieira: Vieira's response to pressure is perplexing. The positive side of it is that he didn't turtle in the slightest. I like that a lot. The problem is his persistence with the joke. It isn't as though he brushed it off and began hunting. In fact, it represents the majority of his content. The only post he has that isn't in regards to the joke is a vote on Orgasmo (is that Facemelter?) that is devoid of explanation.
Xardob: When I think of innocent Xardob I usually think of a player who lashes out with seemingly random pressures, and lays traps for wolves to bite. This Xardob seems eager to do the opposite. He's participating plenty, but it feels as though he's buddying up more than hunting. To be clear, I won't consider him for a day one lynch. But I find this behavior odd.
Moose: Moose is asking questions, but not doing much else. The only opinion he's offered is in regards to my pressure on Vieira, and that's a low impact post in which he also asks for opinions on the matter. This feels like active lurking; being present without actually participating much. He's tied with Vieira for my current top spot.
Your answer here is so serious that I don't know if you missed the obvious implication of my question. you've kind of unbalanced me here.Magorian Aximand said:Xardob said:Since guessing the wolves would be no fun to you in this game, you're going for guessing what we'll all do?Magorian Aximand said:Woo! Good to see the old Hammy account active again. Also nice to be playing in a game with an All-Star roster.
Day one prediction: Vieira turtles, Eternal goes after Xardob for playstyle reasons, and we end up lynching Jock for making a mistake. Do notice that these game predictions work regardless of allegiance of any of the participants.
Going for a similar first post strategy to Kronic's Forum Affair. Predictions that contain some kind of pressure. I just couldn't finish with anything as provocative as, "So Koenig and Pachinko, which of you should we lynch today?" because there isn't anything quite so easy.
Isn't that how you can easily lynch a villager, though? Find behaviors that fit a wolf profile and paint them in the light you want. There's a difference between looking for players being wolfish and wolfish behavior in other players.
You know, there's a really interesting discussion about werewolf meta somewhere down this line. Let me know if you're interested in having it.
I won't deny that wolves have made that joke before, but does it fit the player? I'm not sure. Is it the first joke a wolf would think of making? I see Jock's "don't bait me" as much more wolfish than this.
I'd expect a wolf to post something along these lines as a joke: "Right after you". It would imply he's innocent, throw the attention on me and also establish a connection between both of us. It's much more effective as wolf joke than what Vieira posted.
Yeah, that's Pinky alright.
You're giving me too much credit here. I'm just having fun talking with everyone. Finding wolves is just incidental at this point.
Also, I could do it with my eyes closed, so why put too much effort into it?
For what's worth it, I like your general assessment of Moose and Vieira.
Moose! said:
Something something gut. Seems off.
Vieira = Good. He don't play like this as wolf.
Mag = Wolf. Posts weird.
Eternal = Fence. Hasn't gotten into quote war with me.
Moose = Wolf lean. Boring questioning type wolf.
Xardob = Who knows.
Jock = Lean innocent. Wolf prob not knee-jerk vote like he did.
Still not as awesome as my LoS last gameXardob said:
As an aside, I kinda like we're going back to super-simple LoSes...it feels like the early middle-ages, we're relearning everything after the glorious civilization has come down crashing and burning and it's an exciting time where new things can grow. Things like absurd places such as the great kingdom of Austrasia under the rulership of Dagobert I.
I think I'll go back to CK2 and leave you guys be...
Xardob said:I think you're innocent, so I should take you at your word, which means you're telling the truth about being a wolf. But then you're a wolf and I can't trust you and so I should trust my initial read that you're innocent. And this leads me to believe you again about being a wolf. And so on.The Doge of Benis said:
It's the circle of life!
1. Xardob - Might be my packmate.
2. Jock - Not really enough to go on. Reading innocent right now.
3. Magorian - A bit weird but innocent.
4. Moose! - Probably innocent
5. Dildomelter - Might also be my packmate.
6. Dances with Vacuums - Definite vacuwolf
7. Marowit - Voting a little weird, but not enough to call foul of.
So Doge is still doing this weird joke-thing.
There's pretty much nothing to make of these early lists, I'm leaning innocent on Orgasmo so far, although his reads are kinda questionable. Not a fan of Moose's and Marowit's posts so far. Xardob, Mag and whoever I didn't mention are fairly neutral at this point.
Not much to say cuz not much has been said. I look forward to Xardob's LoS and Moose and Marowit posting more. (Marowit is Eternal, right???)
There's pretty much nothing to make of these early lists, I'm leaning innocent on Orgasmo so far, although his reads are kinda questionable. Not a fan of Moose's and Marowit's posts so far. Xardob, Mag and whoever I didn't mention are fairly neutral at this point.
Not much to say cuz not much has been said. I look forward to Xardob's LoS and Moose and Marowit posting more. (Marowit is Eternal, right???)
