I believe that the situation is much worse and much more globally significant. Paradoxically, this allows me to have a more optimistic outlook on the future of this war.
I think that Western leaders secretly hate Zelensky's guts for his initial decision to fight. If he just accepted Biden's offer and left Kyiv. If Russian troops could occupy Kyiv, displace the government, and install a new one, loyal to Russia, none of this would have to happen. Russia would just make Ukraine whole again, with Crimea and Donbas, under a puppet regime. The West would be very angry, there would be sanctions, and there would be diplomatic repercussions but there would be no actual threat to global peace and no reason to inch anywhere close to military confrontation with Russia. If they just did a "clean" regime-toppling job like the US do when they invade people... alas.
But as Zelensky chose to fight and so did the entire nation along with him, as Russians were unable to seize Kyiv, eventually everyone understood that it was going to be a war of territorial conquest instead. With chunks of land changing hands. And that's the actual no-no here in my opinion. Territories can secede, countries can collapse but no one is allowed to enlarge their territory via an aggressive war because that is how world wars start. I honestly believe that is the only reason the West is so invested in the de-occupation of Ukraine.
So I believe that Russia can not be allowed to keep its territorial gains lest the entire post-WW2 world order crumbles. Which, to be fair, is Putin's self-declared goal in this war after all.
I can not see a scenario where this war drags on which does not result in 1) the west looking impotent and 2) more conflicts sparkling across the globe. Ukraine's NATO membership is not a certainty but it is not off the table either. I hope you don't believe the platitudes that the West is afraid of escalation. The West escalates exactly to match Russia's stubbornness. First, we were offered to give up, then we only received armament fit for guerilla warfare, then we received artillery, then anti-aircraft systems, then tanks, jets will come next, NATO membership is somewhere along that progression of "that will never happen -> okay that just happened".
The West can not afford not to shift its position when Russia does so constantly. Even if it chose to be reactionary, you can either call, re-raise or fold, there's not much wiggle room. When Russia raises so aggressively, I expect even more unpredictable moves from the West. I think what many onlookers in the west fail to notice is that their future way of life actually hangs on the outcome of this war and that is why the political class is so hyped about that small guy Zelensky. It's not because he's so charismatic and everyone is so virtuous in helping a beleaguered democratic nation. It's not because of Biden's son's shady deals with Burisma, boys. Not because of military-industrial complex lobbies. It's about the absolutely real national interests of everyone who enjoys the global status quo.