Ukraine Today

[Mad Vader]

NATO membership won't happen and you should really lay off the conspiratorial thinking Weaver. As long as Ukraine is at war and has disputed territories, no one would let it in and let drag everyone into a formal Article 5 war.
The Western interests are very public and transparent, and if they are not, there's always a leak.

 

[Weaver]

That's inconsistent with years of pre-war military training assistance provided post 2014.

Dude, there was no assistance worth writing home about. Merkel lied when she said Minsk deal happened to buy Ukraine more time. We were not prepared at all and it is demonstrably true. Neither did our western allies expect us to hold out for more than a week. Surviving the first months I can only attribute to our resilience, Russian leadership’s corruption and ineptitude and sheer luck. If we did have real support earlier, if years ago we were given 20% of what we were given since the invasion, invasion would not have happened.

NATO membership won't happen and you should really lay off the conspiratorial thinking Weaver. As long as Ukraine is at war and has disputed territories, no one would let it in and let drag everyone into a formal Article 5 war.
The Western interests are very public and transparent, and if they are not, there's always a leak.

I don't think I sounded conspirational because for one I was not suggesting anyone was actually conspiring.
I also do not suggest Ukraine will get NATO membership in the middle of a war, which is indeed a strange idea.
But after the war - very likely. Note, that Ukraine has no disputed territories. Only occupied territories. Crimea is recognized as Russian by Russia, North Korea and whichever Syrian government is controlled by Russia. Also poor Armenia, which also is kaput without Russia. That's not a premise for a real legal dispute. This war can not end with territories remaining occupied, I think the West is clear on that.
Although I concede that the war may turn out to go badly for us. You never know, anything can happen. And we will not be able to deoccupy all the territories. Then we might be pushed into a deal and recognize certain Russian gains. But then, once again, there would be no dispute, just a new legal reality. And Ukraine will never agree to cede land without getting NATO membership because that's just suicide.

Main takeaway - if Ukraine manages to deoccupy all the territories, it may afford to remain neutral. If it is forced to cede territories that can only come with bulletproof security guarantees, of which I can right now only imagine the eventual association with NATO.

 

[Mad Vader]

I don't think any Ukrainian leader wants to go down in history as someone who ceded land to Russia and Russia would want a lot of what it already has occupied. Instead they will seek some kind of a truce that doesn't include formal recognition of annexed territory, and that's - disputed territories, and no NATO membership. NATO doesn't need Ukraine to be a member at all, because this brings a whole lot of downsides and risks. That's why special treaties would do and pressure on Ukraine is possible without having NATO membership on the table, simply by leveraging military aid.

 

[Kentucky 『 ＨＥＩＧＵＩ 』 James]

The Western interests are very public and transparent, and if they are not, there's always a leak.

lol

Territories can secede, countries can collapse but no one is allowed to enlarge their territory via an aggressive war because that is how world wars start. I honestly believe that is the only reason the West is so invested in the de-occupation of Ukraine.

I think this is a bit too idealist and is half the reason we're at this point. The reason we haven't seen any sizeable wars of conquest since the 1940s is because fascism is basically dead. I find it hard to believe that the US wouldn't support a war of territorial aggression just out of principle if it were in their interests. They've done so countless times with Israel, pretty much the only continually expansionist state of the postwar, and with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war.

I think there's such a thing as taking international law and even geopolitical convention too seriously.

 

[NPC99]

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Assessing a Year of Military Aid to Ukraine

How has the Western effort to train and equip Ukrainian forces fared in year one – and what might we expect from additional military assistance in the future?

www.rusi.org

 

[BenKenobi]

As long as Ukraine is at war and has disputed territories, no one would let it in and let drag everyone into a formal Article 5 war.

 

[Weaver]

That's why special treaties would do and pressure on Ukraine is possible without having NATO membership on the table, simply by leveraging military aid.

This is only acceptable if such treaties will include guarantees akin to Article 5 or stronger. Otherwise, it's just waiting a few years until Russia regroups and swallows the rest of Ukraine. This time for sure.
This route seems unlikely to me because it makes western efforts up to this point completely meaningless. If they actually considered this, they would just cut the aid right now.

I think this is a bit too idealist and is half the reason we're at this point. The reason we haven't seen any sizeable wars of conquest since the 1940s is because fascism is basically dead. I find it hard to believe that the US wouldn't support a war of territorial aggression just out of principle if it were in their interests. They've done so countless times with Israel, pretty much the only continually expansionist state of the postwar, and with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war.

I think there's such a thing as taking international law and even geopolitical convention too seriously.

Remember, the USSR was just as happy to redraw the map as the nazis before WW2 happened. The reason we haven't seen sizeable wars of conquest since the 1940s is that people were terrified to death of a new big war between post-industrial superpowers.
It took three generations to forget that fear. I think that's the reason the next world war is a possibility. There's no chance things could unfold like this if my grandparents' generation was in charge.

Now, I don't believe your analysis pertaining to the seriousness of the current geopolitical convention is correct. Yes, there can be grey area. Like Israel is de facto still at war with half the middle east and while its gains are not internationally recognized there's no enforcement perhaps out of fear the history will immediately repeat itself. And when Russia annexed Crimea the West's first reaction was very moderate, no recognition but no meaningful action either. Western politician's first reaction is always "I hope it doesn't get worse during my term". It's when they start seeing a scary long-term trend that they are forced to finally respond. I mean, after Crimea Putin didn't say that "Russia doesn't end anywhere" yet. But now things are actually on track for another big war and endlessly backing down before Putin is not the right strategy to avoid it in the long run.

 

[Mad Vader]

Poland no! Bad Poland!

 

[Weaver]

I believe that this finally is a firm signal that there will be no war-related deals with Russia while Putin is in power.
Either a bid on a prolonged war, or on Putin's mortality.

ICC judges issue arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes

Arrest warrants issued for Russian leader and his children’s rights commissioner for ‘unlawful deportation’ of Ukrainian children

www.theguardian.com

Also very passive-aggressively done on the verge of Xi’s visit. He will now have to shake a war criminal’s hand and pretend he doesn’t care.

NYT also reminds that Russia will be unable to lift sanctions unless ICC’s orders are respected. Didn’t know that. Makes this move even more eloquent. Now this war effectively can not be concluded until huilo is dead (or prosecuted, which is not happening).

 

[Mad Vader]

Let's not overestimate this warrant, it's for a relatively light charge compared to heavy war crimes, and it won't prevent the West dealing with Putin, especially the US, who also doesn't recognize the ICC. I see it as a general "be accountable" signal to Russian officials.

 

[Mad Vader]

By the way, anyone knowledgable on Ukrainian refugees integration problems in Poland? I've read the Deloitte's report from Oct 22.
Need to write a project about it, apparently the EU is putting the support for Ukraine as a priority in various programmes.

 

[Weaver]

Let's not overestimate this warrant, it's for a relatively light charge compared to heavy war crimes, and it won't prevent the West dealing with Putin, especially the US, who also doesn't recognize the ICC. I see it as a general "be accountable" signal to Russian officials.

Not really a light crime. A deliberate policy of moving children from one ethnic group to another is a crime of genocide by the book.
Let's not underestimate it either. I'm not saying Putin is getting arrested, I'm saying there are serious political ramifications, mostly putting extra pressure on countries who respect the ICC and are still on the fence or are hoping the situation will be resolved soon and they won't have to commence a fall out with Putin's regime. I really appreciate it as a Ukrainian.

By the way, anyone knowledgable on Ukrainian refugees integration problems in Poland? I've read the Deloitte's report from Oct 22.
Need to write a project about it, apparently the EU is putting the support for Ukraine as a priority in various programmes.

What are you back to school?

 

[Mad Vader]

What are you back to school?

NGO work for your refugees.

 

[Weaver]

With a job like that I now get why you're so cynical about Ukraine.

As to your question, I only have anecdotal data.

 

[Mad Vader]

With a job like that I now get why you're so cynical about Ukraine.

As to your question, I only have anecdotal data.

I'm not at all cynical about Ukraine and support it and its people fully. The NGO stuff is just something to do and maybe help someone (courtesy of EU funds).

 

[Weaver]

Anyway, from what I hear, housing is a huge problem for Ua refugees in Poland.
A friend who moved to Warsaw a while ago tells me rent jumped by 20% in some places since the war started. And it was already high for an average Ua salary.
So people who retained their jobs and work online struggle to find affordable apartments. And those who lost their jobs often can not find a job in Poland and rely on state-sponsored housing, which was free during the first year afaik but is no longer free. Those guys face a choice of ending up on the streets or returning to Ukraine. Maybe there needs to be some sort of prioritization, where people who fled Mariupol and Severodonetsk can still live for free while people who came from Odesa or Lviv don't need this help to the same extent because their homes in Ua are intact.
Moreover, according to my other friend, Polish landlords are growing reluctant to deal with Ukrainians due to fear of the latter not being able to reliably pay the rent. So that's another complication.

Another problem is the kids. The majority of Ukrainian refugee families consist of just mothers with children. There seem to be no overarching programs to take care of Ua kids while moms are trying to get their lives together in a foreign country.

 

[Mad Vader]

Those problems are all in Deloitte's report which has recommendations to the Polish government how to deal with them. Thanks for your real life info though.
The solutions are not easy, but it's generally to get childcare, both pre-school and school age, as refugees are mostly mothers with kids, and get their uni diplomas accepted faster (60% have them), so they could support themselves with work that hopefully suits their education (another problem, they are doing low-skill jobs for which they are over-qualified).
The idea is for the Polish labor market to absorb them, as they are actually needed in an aging Polish demographics, and many of them would stay even after the war, with their husbands likely rejoining them. That depends on the level of devastation to homes, they need something to return to.
This doesn't do much for Ukraine, but it's the reality of refugees from war. Government handouts and Polish goodwill get diminished and permanent integration is the best deal for those refugees and the Polish economy.

 

[Weaver]

Exactly, thanks for just saying it as it is.
EU is doing enough for the refugees. But when they start taking those extra steps to turn the refugees into immigrants instead of spending that money to facilitate their return home (give us more weapons asap, build cheap housing in Ua, etc.), then it's fair to say they're doing this for themselves, not for us.

 

[NPC99]

Friendship means telling hard truths about the endgame in Ukraine

The handwriting is on the wall. As extensively covered in these pages, the evolution of U.S. domestic politics — as indicated in critical commentary from prominent political figures by no means lim…

thehill.com

 

[Weaver]

I think the takeaway from this article is exactly as I previously said: if there is to be a settlement where Ukraine loses any territory, it has to come along with really strong security guarantees + eventual NATO membership.

To elaborate on this: I see two possible scenarios for the world depending on how this conflict is concluded.
1. China agrees to continue playing by the existing rules and respect the status quo and pressures Russia to follow suit. Ukraine is restored to its internationally-recognized borders. Ukraine remains neutral as a buffer state. China and the West get involved in peacekeeping and post-war stabilization on the beleaguered territories.
2. China supports and emboldens Russia to break the status quo. The world goes back to the Entente and Dreibund, Axises and Alliances ruleset. Ukraine is eventually partitioned and each part is engulfed by a respective side. There are many signs that the West is experiencing structural fatigue (moral more than resource-related) of being the force that keeps the world order together, so the second route is very probable. Ironically, this scenario is worse for the world but probably better for Ukraine (the part that gets lucky, at least).