Ukraine Today
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Except Wagner now has a new internal divide among Prigozhin's loyalists, will lose manpower to MoD contracts, and may fracture to the point of collapse. Unsurprisingly, if you look at it like it's an internal conflict in organized crime then it makes more sense. A faction coalesces around a particular grievance, openly rebels against the top leadership and causes a little damage, but ultimately they're only there out of self-interest and when a good deal is offered then the leaders of the rebelling group take it. They lose the trust of the people following them who get nothing out of the deal, and those people will get pressured out or fall in with another group. What looks like a power struggle at first is nothing more than selfish opportunism.
See? It's already happening.
It's kind of a meme to say the Russian government is basically just the Russian mob, but it's not really wrong.
Just waiting to hear that Wagnerites have been “encouraged” to join penal battalions with cattle prods and will be used up (along with supporting Storm Z units) as cannon fodder to spot Ukrainian firing positions. It would be an ironic Mafia outcome given the fate of bus loads of prisoners recruited by Prigozhin. Posthumous medals all around. (PS just speculation).EDIT
Latest from General Viktor Zolotov - Rosgvardia will receive heavy weapons and tanks (presumably ex-Wagner). Also, the mercenary rebellion "was inspired by the West and overlapped with Prigozhin's ambitions"
So, it’s all a CIA plot, no wonder, Biden claimed it had no US involvement
Girkin - As one of the bloggers rightly noted: "Now the question arises of rewarding the uninvolved and punishing the innocent."
At least the Kremlin’s accountants will be happy saving $1b p.a.:
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Progress around Bakhmut.
Great for Ukraine that Putin's giving medals to his inept Generals rather than replacing them.
Also seems as though Wagner's still operational in Russia:
No wonder Surovikin looked so scared when he made or was forced to make his video appeal to the Mutineers to give up.
Seems that Surovikin and 30 other Generals are honorary members of Wagner - might be a brown bag list.
US support for arming Ukraine rises from 46% in May to 65% in June:
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/VJYEGTBGVFNSHPW63FQGKD5TEE.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Great for Ukraine that Putin's giving medals to his inept Generals rather than replacing them.
Also seems as though Wagner's still operational in Russia:
No wonder Surovikin looked so scared when he made or was forced to make his video appeal to the Mutineers to give up.
Seems that Surovikin and 30 other Generals are honorary members of Wagner - might be a brown bag list.
Dossier Center: General Surovikin has been an honorary member of PMC Wagner since 2017
General Sergei Surovikin became an honorary member of PMC Wagner back in 2017. This is reported by the “Dossier” Center with reference to the documents availabl
ground.news
US support for arming Ukraine rises from 46% in May to 65% in June:
Most Americans support US arming Ukraine, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows
Solid majorities of Americans support providing weaponry to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia and believe that such aid demonstrates to China and other U.S. rivals a will to protect U.S. interests and allies, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey.
www.reuters.com
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In June we had a slew of massive rocket strikes on our cities and lots of murdered civilians. There was a picture that struck me the most. A grandfather sitting over the body of his 9 y.o. granddaughter right on the street. It was truly heartbreaking. Weeks later our writer Victoria Amelina wrote a poem about this that made my eyes water a little.
Yesterday I found out that Victoria, who was a volunteer, was also killed in a recent rocket strike on Kramatorsk. Just a month after that little girl. Victoria wrote her poems so that we would remember everyone they killed. I've translated her poem and will just leave it here.
Every day is a heartache.
Yesterday I found out that Victoria, who was a volunteer, was also killed in a recent rocket strike on Kramatorsk. Just a month after that little girl. Victoria wrote her poems so that we would remember everyone they killed. I've translated her poem and will just leave it here.
Every day is a heartache.
I remember how I kept myself safe when I was a kid
Because if something would have happened to me
My grandpa would cry so painfully
Like on that day when grandma died in the hospital
But my grandpa is with her now
So I am not afraid of war and death
And when a shell kills a neighbour's girl
I confront the heavens, where they all reside
I say: look, it is I who no longer has a grandpa
And even my grandpa would agree with me:
"Yes, would be better if it were you, for you no longer have a grandpa
And hers, look how he sits and sits over her body
He is not even able to cry so painfully
And frankly, I wouldn't be able either"
Because if something would have happened to me
My grandpa would cry so painfully
Like on that day when grandma died in the hospital
But my grandpa is with her now
So I am not afraid of war and death
And when a shell kills a neighbour's girl
I confront the heavens, where they all reside
I say: look, it is I who no longer has a grandpa
And even my grandpa would agree with me:
"Yes, would be better if it were you, for you no longer have a grandpa
And hers, look how he sits and sits over her body
He is not even able to cry so painfully
And frankly, I wouldn't be able either"
Indiscriminate targeting of civilians is evil.
Victoria worked as a war crimes researcher for Truth Hounds on field missions to Kherson, Kharkiv and Dnipro regions, documenting indiscriminate shellings, willful killings and attacks on civilian targets.
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Despite its lack of geographical value, Bakhmut continues to be of tactical and morale significance to both sides. Hopefully, the high ground at Klishchiivka overlooking the city’s ruins will help turn Bakhmut into a trap similar to that experienced by Germany at Stalingrad in WW2.
www.kyivpost.com
The Russian media hatchet job on Prigozhin gathers momentum
Ukraine Makes Further Gains Amid Heavy Fighting Around Bakhmut
Russia lost more than 20,000 men over six months to secure its prestige victory of capturing the city of Bakhmut. Now Ukrainian troops are reversing the loss in tough, close-quarter fighting.
www.kyivpost.com
The Russian media hatchet job on Prigozhin gathers momentum
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If this is a Wagner convoy heading into Belarus, it seems to have retained a few tanks, despite promises to hand over heavy equipment.
An interesting article on Ukrainian strategy:
Thermobaric weapons are evil whoever is firing them:
Russian spokesman confirmed Putin met Prigozhin and Wagner commanders at the Kremlin on June 29th for 3 hours:
Russian politics is a roller coaster. Fact is stranger than fiction.
An interesting article on Ukrainian strategy:
Russian spokesman confirmed Putin met Prigozhin and Wagner commanders at the Kremlin on June 29th for 3 hours:
Russian politics is a roller coaster. Fact is stranger than fiction.
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June 26: Putin brands Prigozhin as guilty of high treason and vows to punish Wagner accordingly.
June 29: Peskov tells journos he has no info concerning Prigozhin’s whereabouts.
July 10: Peskov says Putin and Prigozhin had a long meeting on June 29.
I love this. I told you they don’t have a state any more. Now it’s too evident. There will be another mutiny soon enough, apparently. Unless regime hard resets before that.
June 29: Peskov tells journos he has no info concerning Prigozhin’s whereabouts.
July 10: Peskov says Putin and Prigozhin had a long meeting on June 29.
I love this. I told you they don’t have a state any more. Now it’s too evident. There will be another mutiny soon enough, apparently. Unless regime hard resets before that.
Also, reports that Prigozhin is (was) in St. Petersburg recently.
Seems the rumours that Wagner went for Voronezh-45 (Borisoglebsk Nuclear Storage Facility) on 24th June have more substance than I assumed at the time. The prospect of Wagner war criminals armed with backpack nukes is scary.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/HYEQSQFIVFOW5DFJMB34ZMAOZQ.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Alternative view suggests Ukrainian Intelligence disinformation:
interesting speculation:
Wagner fighters neared Russian nuclear base during revolt
As rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents.
www.reuters.com
interesting speculation:
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No, I don't buy this at all.
For one, Kovalchuk is on the record saying the most conspiratorial, chauvinistic, and insane things about Ukraine and the "anglo-saxons", probably superseding those of Patrushev himself. He was one of the main influences on Putin for this war to be started in the first place.
People like to speculate about the "towers of Kremlin" which vie for power behind Putin's back. I think there are really just two towers that hold real power - the "siloviki" (led by Patrushev and FSB) and Putin's personal friends and family (Rotenbergs, Kovalchuk, etc.). Just like the two groups Girkin outlined in his post.
The main difference between these groups is that siloviki are independently powerful and Putin's friends absolutely hang on Putin remaining in power. Once he's out, they will have no protection and no military or political resource to keep what they currently control.
It was said that Prigozhin was originally affiliated with Kiriyenko (Kovalchuk's group). But for the reasons mentioned above, I do not believe the latter group would ever try anything that undermines Putin's power. So I am convinced that Prigozhin's coup was either staged by an FSB-affiliated group (him being a double agent) or that Prigozhin actually went rogue and acted against Kovalchuk's interest, probably still aligning with the siloviki as the result. So him still being alive means a win for siloviki and Putin's buddies being weakened.
Girkin is affiliated with FSB likewise. So this post by Girkin has to be an elaborate ruse, a psyops. To convince the rising Russian fascist public core that Prigozhin is still a Kovalchuk's guy and Kovalchuk and Co want to end the war. When in truth, it has to be vice versa. Putin's life and career depend on how this war goes now. So "friends and family" absolutely are in till the last soldier. While siloviki have not much to gain from prolonging the war or escalating it. I think siloviki are the ones working toward ending the war, but they want to blame Putin's friends for this so that they can keep the support of the rising Russian fascist irredentist core.
Seems it’s going better for Ukraine than the Russian MOD want to admit.
A former General and current Russian lawmaker Andrei Gurulyov, posted this audio message from Major General Ivan Popov, who was removed from command of the 58th Combined Arms Army following a report to General Valery Gerasimov:
“A difficult situation with the leadership emerged. It was a choice between remaining silent and afraid and saying what they wanted to hear, or calling things for what they are. In your name, in the name of all perished comrades-in-arms, I didn’t have the right to lie. Hence I named all the problems that exist today in the army regarding operations, supply. I pointed the attention to the most important tragedy of the modern war - the lack of counter-battery fire, lack of artillery reconnaissance stations, and mass casualties and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery.
I also raised a number of other issues, expressed them to the highest levels, did it openly and very brutally. Due to this, the seniors likely felt some danger in me and instantly, in one day, put together an order to the Minister of Defence and got rid of me.
As many commanders of regiments and divisions said today, our army was not broken through the front, but our most senior commander hit us in the back, thus treacherously beheading the army in the most difficult period."
Unfortunately, you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.
Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses
Seventeen months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces are winning a key battle—the counterbattery battle.
www.forbes.com
EDIT - full speech:
EDIT - UK MoD:
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Unfortunately, I don't fully believe that either. It's a Russian general for crying out loud. You couldn't be a general in Shoigu's army if you were not a part of the corruption machine. An honest man would have been ousted many years ago.
What probably happened was the guy got sacked as a result of post-Prigozhin purges or whatnot and kitbashed a pretty story to look heroic. All units on all theatres experience some sort of ammo shortage and inadequate coverage by artillery. On both sides. It's bad. Everyone knows that. And nothing can be done either.
He's just like Prigozhin screaming "where is the ammo, Shoigu?" When the answer is - there's objectively not enough ammo for intense daily shelling of the entire front's length, you clown.
What probably happened was the guy got sacked as a result of post-Prigozhin purges or whatnot and kitbashed a pretty story to look heroic. All units on all theatres experience some sort of ammo shortage and inadequate coverage by artillery. On both sides. It's bad. Everyone knows that. And nothing can be done either.
He's just like Prigozhin screaming "where is the ammo, Shoigu?" When the answer is - there's objectively not enough ammo for intense daily shelling of the entire front's length, you clown.
I’ve seen the reports that soldiers have to buy their leave entitlement with a months salary from their commanders etc. Corruption is embedded, but that doesn’t mean every Russian General is incompetent and uncaring. Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reported that Popov had been relieved of command for requesting the rotation of units out of the frontline. All reports suggest he was well respected and effective unlike Gerasimov.
He seemed a high-value target to the UAF
He claims he went crazy.
Prigozhin’s Explanation for Violent Mutiny: ‘I Went Crazy’
A new report details the cutthroat Wagner boss’ violent rages, his treatment for cancer, and the deranged method he had for punishing subordinates.
www.thedailybeast.com
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Bit of selective quoting, but major players are still shedding "undesirables." It's just not Wagner doing it.
It seems Wagner had all the ammunition, despite Prigozhin’s rants:
And all the modern equipment:
Fortunately they’re promised to Rosgvardiya rather than front-line service:
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/06/2...nry-and-tanks-blames-wagner-rebellion-on-west
By comparison the front-lines are getting Thompson SMGs and other obsolete weapons:
I guess night vision’s out of the question
And all the modern equipment:
Fortunately they’re promised to Rosgvardiya rather than front-line service:
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/06/2...nry-and-tanks-blames-wagner-rebellion-on-west
By comparison the front-lines are getting Thompson SMGs and other obsolete weapons:
I guess night vision’s out of the question
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Andrey Kolesnikov (kremlin pocket journo) released a short article based on his recent interview/conversation with Putin. There was a story about it in the rag, but I can't see it fully translated into English anywhere, so will share some insights that I find hilarious.
NBs by Kolesnikov. I love how petty and peeved Putin sounds and this is supposed to be a PR piece.
NBs by Kolesnikov. I love how petty and peeved Putin sounds and this is supposed to be a PR piece.
— What actually happened during that meeting on June 29?
— On the on hand, I assessed their battle achievements, on the other hand, I assessed their actions during the June 24. Finally, I outlined possible venues for their further service. Including using them in battle again. That was it.
!And it took them 3 hours.
— So can we assume,— I said,— that PMC Wagner will be preserved as a combat unit?
— Well, PMC Wagner does not exist! — Exclaimed Vladimir Putin.— We do not have any legislation pertaining to private military organizations! It simply does not exist!
!So, if there is no legislation, there is no PMC.
!Well, what was that all about though?
— Such legal entity does not exist,— underlined Vladimir Putin.
!Apparently, he was speaking as a professional lawyer here. Understandable.
— The group is there, but legally it does not exist! — repeated the president.— This is a separate issue, related to actual legalization. But this issue should be discussed at the State Duma, the government. It's a tough one.
!Later Vladimir Putin shared a story from that meeting, where he offered Wagner commanders (35 were present, as he confirmed) several options for further employment. Including continuing working under their current combat leader (Sedoy) who they served with for the last 16 months.
— They all could be gathered in one place and continue their service,— said Vladimir Putin. — Nothing would change for them. They would be led by the same person, who led them all this time.
— And what came out of it?
— Many of them nodded a lot while I talked,— continued Vladimir Putin.— But Prigozhin, who sat at the front and didn't see his men nodding, replied "No, guys will not accept such a proposition".
— On the on hand, I assessed their battle achievements, on the other hand, I assessed their actions during the June 24. Finally, I outlined possible venues for their further service. Including using them in battle again. That was it.
!And it took them 3 hours.
— So can we assume,— I said,— that PMC Wagner will be preserved as a combat unit?
— Well, PMC Wagner does not exist! — Exclaimed Vladimir Putin.— We do not have any legislation pertaining to private military organizations! It simply does not exist!
!So, if there is no legislation, there is no PMC.
!Well, what was that all about though?
— Such legal entity does not exist,— underlined Vladimir Putin.
!Apparently, he was speaking as a professional lawyer here. Understandable.
— The group is there, but legally it does not exist! — repeated the president.— This is a separate issue, related to actual legalization. But this issue should be discussed at the State Duma, the government. It's a tough one.
!Later Vladimir Putin shared a story from that meeting, where he offered Wagner commanders (35 were present, as he confirmed) several options for further employment. Including continuing working under their current combat leader (Sedoy) who they served with for the last 16 months.
— They all could be gathered in one place and continue their service,— said Vladimir Putin. — Nothing would change for them. They would be led by the same person, who led them all this time.
— And what came out of it?
— Many of them nodded a lot while I talked,— continued Vladimir Putin.— But Prigozhin, who sat at the front and didn't see his men nodding, replied "No, guys will not accept such a proposition".
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Girkin was very dismissive of Putin's efforts to appeal to Wagner patriotism "...Call mercenaries to conscience? - this is from the category of a joke about the search for innocent girls in a brothel... To put pressure on the fact that the front is cracking under enemy attacks and there is an acute shortage of reinforcements and reserves? What do mercenaries care about that? They are well fed in Africa, and the war there is both easier and safer..." Finally referring to Putin as "...the old fool..."
Still, we might all be mis-reading events. Putin chose to disclose the story. Why? On the surface it only does him harm. However, he may expect the last laugh:
"But Prigozhin, who sat at the front and didn't see his men nodding..."
I've seen claims that it was Prigozhin's double flying to St Petersburg etc., not the man himself. We have no definitive confirmation that he was released from Putin's clutches. It's clear the Wagner commanders would be more compliant without him.
More from Girkin:
Popov isn’t alone in complaining about the loss of Russian artillery supremacy:
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