Ukraine Today

[NPC99]

Dreadful that disowning the use of a preemptive nuclear attack on the West represents only a dissenting minority view on Russia’s Foreign and Defence Policy Council

Google translated:
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ON CALLS FOR NUCLEAR WAR
13.07.2023 – 21:58One Comment
Evgeny Savostyanov and other members of the SWOP

SWOP website

Statement by members of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy
At the request of a number of members of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, we are publishing a statement sent by them. It is not the position of the Council, but reflects the views of the signatories.

Recently, speeches and statements have appeared, including by a number of members of the SWOP, in which, albeit with numerous reservations, the idea of a preventive nuclear strike by Russia is spreading in the event of a negative scenario for the development of military operations in Ukraine and adjacent territories. Moreover, the authors do not limit themselves to the flight of fantasy about the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine, but also propose to strike at the main NATO countries.

We are well aware of the results of ancient and modern studies of the possible damage resulting from such a war. Hoping that a limited nuclear conflict can be managed and prevented from escalating into a global nuclear war is the height of irresponsibility. This means that at stake is the destruction of tens and perhaps even hundreds of millions of people in Russia, Europe, China, the USA, and other countries. This is a direct threat to humanity in general.

For our country, destroyed in the course of such a catastrophe, for our people, disorganized by such a war, this would also mean the prospect of losing sovereignty under the pressure of the surviving peoples of the South.

Unacceptable pseudo-theoretical reasoning and emotional statements in the style of the so-called. "talk shows" to form such moods in society that can push for the adoption of disastrous decisions.

These are no longer theoretical concepts. This is not only a direct threat to all mankind, but also a very specific proposal to kill everyone who is dear to us and whom we love.

We, the members of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, consider such proposals absolutely unacceptable and unreservedly condemn them.

No one should ever blackmail humanity with the threat of using nuclear weapons and, moreover, give the command to use them in combat.

We invite all SWOP members to join this Statement.


After Russian media claims that 72nd brigade "inadequately" defended Kleshcheyivka, units of the 106th Airborne Division were thrown in to shore up Bakhmut’s Southern flank. Now they’ve lost their leader, Major General Vladimir Selivestrov. With Major General Ivan Popov that’s two generals sacked at two of the three major points of attack by Ukraine. Who’s next?


Hopefully, General Teplinsky's next as his paratroops have threatened to mutiny if he's removed from command.

Well, seems it‘s already planned:

 

[Weaver]

In the meantime, I'm toying with chatgpt to gauge its actual involvement in the current "blogosphere".
It's pretty great. https://chat.openai.com/share/82f0ab24-378e-4815-ad46-338449de6b5e

 

[NPC99]

I suspect someone's in trouble. Putin demanded increased security after last year's truck bomb damaged the Kerch Bridge. Now it's damaged again. One span of the road bridge down near the 145th pillar. Seems like an attack by sea drones this time. Unfortunately, the rail bridge was unaffected and is already back in operation. Russian military logistics depend on the rail bridge rather the road one. However, its another blow to Putin's prestige.

 

[Weaver]

Today Putin has to make a decision whether grain deal will be prolonged. Peskov recently mentioned that the deal is over.
I guess this strike sends a message "no grain deal = no kerch bridge".

On a different note, I have now had the two worst nights of my life. The number of rockets and drones in the sky was insane. The crescendo of explosions and trembling walls felt like I was in a frontline city.
They are trying to completely destroy our trade port and all grain facilities in the region. Partially they were successful, judging by what I see. Grain terminals are all blown up, together with thousands of tons of grain. I guess the logic here is to destroy our livelihood for years to come. Which is sort of good at least in a way that they apparently no longer expect to conquer my city and now just want to make us suffer and destroy whatever value they can destroy.

 

[NPC99]

On a different note, I have now had the two worst nights of my life. The number of rockets and drones in the sky was insane. The crescendo of explosions and trembling walls felt like I was in a frontline city.
They are trying to completely destroy our trade port and all grain facilities in the region. Partially they were successful, judging by what I see. Grain terminals are all blown up, together with thousands of tons of grain. I guess the logic here is to destroy our livelihood for years to come. Which is sort of good at least in a way that they apparently no longer expect to conquer my city and now just want to make us suffer and destroy whatever value they can destroy.

Hopefully such heavy attacks intended as a political demonstration of Putin’s power will end soon. They lack any military logic, whatever grain and port infrastructure are destroyed. I’m sorry you’re suffering from his temper tantrum following the Kerch bridge attack.

Elsewhere, Prigozhin’s resurfaced in Belarus to rally his remaining adherents:

‘Welcome to hell’ Prigozhin reappears in Belarus, rallying Wagner Group mercenaries for future work in Africa (but not yet in Ukraine) — Meduza

Two Telegram channels associated with the Wagner Group mercenary organization published a video on Wednesday apparently showing Yevgeny Prigozhin addressing his men at their new training camp in Belarus. Prigozhin continues to call Russia’s military conduct in Ukraine a “disgrace” and vowed to...

meduza.io

 

[Weaver]

Hopefully such heavy attacks intended as a political demonstration of Putin’s power will end soon. They lack any military logic, whatever grain and port infrastructure are destroyed. I’m sorry you’re suffering from his temper tantrum following the Kerch bridge attack.

Please don't buy into this "revenge strikes" hogwash. All of their strikes are pre-planned. You can not plan and execute such a massive cross-country strike in 12 hours.
They knew the grain deal was expiring. They announced they will not be renewing it. There were some speculations that Ukraine could keep transporting grain even with Russia pulling out of the deal. So they planned to make that physically impossible by destroying all infrastructure they could target.
Of course, these strikes are not guided by strictly military logic. But it's not a demonstration either. It's an attack on the country's civilian economy and long-term ability to provide for itself and to trade with other countries.

 

[NPC99]

Prigozhin's channel disputed claims that 33,000 Wagnerites had joined the Russian Army:
“Here’s the real math,” the statement said. “A total of 78,000 PMC Wagner fighters participated in the Ukrainian mission. Of these, 49,000 were prisoners from the camps. At the time of the capture of Bakhmut (20 May), 22,000 fighters were killed, 40,000 wounded. 25,000 [are currently] alive and healthy, plus the wounded in treatment. Of those, up to 10,000 have left and are leaving for Belarus. 15,000 have already gone on leave. I don’t know where the 33,000 who left for the military came from. If all those who were killed and are on leave have signed contracts, then it’s possible.”

Those stats suggest a 79% casualty rate, a bad wounded vs killed ratio of 1.82 (a more normal ratio would be 4) and only 23% of wounded returned to duty.

Over 20,000 Wagner troops killed, 40,000 wounded in Ukraine: Prigozhin-linked channel

Earlier, Yevgeny Prigozhin had said Wagner’s troops would not go back to fighting in Ukraine.

www.politico.eu

Of course, these strikes are not guided by strictly military logic. But it's not a demonstration either. It's an attack on the country's civilian economy and long-term ability to provide for itself and to trade with other countries.

Sadly and I accept they were pre-planned.

Unbelievable lies on Russian TV:

No doubt Russian will claim NATO rockets damaged the building of the consulate general of the People's Republic of China in Odesa.

 

[Weaver]

Unbelievable lies on Russian TV:

No doubt Russian will claim NATO rockets damaged the building of the consulate general of the People's Republic of China in Odesa.

The Chinese consulate was not hit. It is just situated within a block of the target building. Just like my mom's house, by the way. I only found out where rockets struck in the morning and when mom didn't pick up the phone I freaked out a bit.
Thankfully, she just slept very tightly. We now have to sleep during the day because nights are when rockets and drones are falling. And those who live downtown like my mom... it's the worst.
There was some minor damage to the apartment. Insect-proof nets got carried away by the blast. Some cracks in the ceiling. Some fallen objects, broken vases. I did not inspect the roof yet, could be bad. I expect it's the same with the consulate, nothing huge.
That building that was hit was an office building by the way. No storage spaces there, no soldiers or vehicles anywhere around. I guess they were aiming at a certain building that is in the vicinity but missed it. Probably the same with the other hits tonight.

As to this clown talking about my city, you have to understand that this is internal propaganda. Utesov is a name that maybe means anything to my parents' generation but is mostly remembered by my grandparents' generation. And I am not a young man.
So what's happening there is this bustard lulling the old women in Russia who still remember Utesov's songs about Odessa and their summertime adulteries here. The old women (without higher education, poor and TV-trained) constitute the majority group of the Russian population, and coincidentally Putin's core electorate.

 

[NPC99]

The old women (without higher education, poor and TV-trained) constitute the majority group of the Russian population, and coincidentally Putin's core electorate.

Putin certainly appears to have a vocal fan club. Apparently he’s ’…a genetic leader. A genius…’ whatever that means.

Igor Girkin who was given a life sentence in absentia for downing flight MH17, has finally been arrested. However, only for making disparaging comments about Putin’s competence.

 

[Weaver]

Last year Girkin said, that if he is allowed to fight, this will be a good sign for Ru military. But if he is imprisoned - the Ru military is doomed. Here's hoping he was right.

 

[NPC99]

Interesting podcast interview with a defender of last year’s siege of Mariupol.

Defending Mariupol - Modern War Institute

When Russian forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022, one of their first targets was Mariupol, an important port city on the Sea of Azov and vital to Russian plans to […]

mwi.westpoint.edu

Poland’s getting a lot of focus on Russian media these days:

 

[NPC99]

Interesting further data on Wagner casualties allowing a split between prisoner recruits and mercenaries, which shows high casualties for both. Previous reports suggested the mercs were busing in prisoners for meat attacks to identify firing points as artillery targets without exposing themselves to similar rates of attrition.

Over 20,000 Wagner troops killed, 40,000 wounded in Ukraine: Prigozhin-linked channel

Earlier, Yevgeny Prigozhin had said Wagner’s troops would not go back to fighting in Ukraine.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine appears to be making a second break-through attempt in the South. I hope this one goes better.

Ukraine steps up counteroffensive with new push south and around Bakhmut

Ukrainian official says every type of weapon in use, including US cluster munitions, as troops push forward

www.theguardian.com

Prigozhin at large in St Petersburg:

 

[NPC99]

Lunacy rules.

 

[NPC99]

Putin’s revenge? Russian air defences shoot down Prigozhin’s plane.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin presumed dead after Russia plane crash

The Russian private military company boss was on the passenger list of the jet which came down near Moscow.

www.bbc.co.uk

Utkin also listed amongst the plane’s passengers.

 

[Adorno]

About time. I gave Prigozhin 1-2 weeks after the "coup" attempt.

(It would be nice to see a body, though.)

 

[NPC99]

About time. I gave Prigozhin 1-2 weeks after the "coup" attempt.

(It would be nice to see a body, though.)

Apparently, Prigozhin was previously reported to have died in a plane crash on October 13, 2019 in the Congo.

Suspicious that it’s all on film as an object lesson to Putin’s detractors.

Wagner sources claim he’s dead, but they would if it was a con:


Wagner threatening a second march on Moscow despite having surrendered their heavy weapons.

Apparantly, there was a second Prigozhin plane that returned and landed safely. Some speculate Prigozhin might be on that one.

Reports suggest Prigozhin’s plane was shot down with a Pantsir missile system. The same system used by Wagner to down the Ilyushin-22 and helicopters in their mutiny. A clear message from Putin?
Air Authorities warned In advance? They were unusually quick confirming passengers etc.

 

[Mad Vader]

Ah, the muddle of conspiracy theories in secretive states. Who would want it different?
It's obviously a false flag op by Prigozhin himself and he has installed himself as the future leader of Niger with a blackface disguise.

 

[Shiroin]

Related Links: https://www.zhihu.com/question/618879909

 

[Adorno]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774

[Brig Gen] Patrick Ryder just said at the Pentagon briefing that there was no information to indicate a surface-to-air missile brought down Prigozhin's plane - contrary to earlier reports by some outlets.

But what exactly are the missiles under discussion?

Often abbreviated to SAM, a surface-to-air missile is designed to be launched from the ground to destroy aircraft, among other objects.

It can be fired from land or sea towards other missiles or even aircraft.

Russia plundering Ukraine's natural resources – DW – 08/28/2023

Ukraine is known as one of Europe's largest grain producers. But it also has valuable natural resources such as iron ore and coal that Russia is eager to exploit.

www.dw.com

Ukraine's highly coveted and strategically important natural resources are now being sent to Russia. Ukrainian, Slovak and Czech investors in the mining business have had their property seized by Russia.

Metallurgy ore exports fell by nearly 60% in 2022 from 2021, dropping to a total value of less than $3 billion (€2.8 billion) ...

In addition to the Kruta Balka site, Russia also occupies also [sic] three of Ukraine's rare earth deposits, according Kashchuk. The resource expert added that zirconium, uranium, but especially graphite and titanium will grow in demand.

 

[Weaver]

Some footage from Mariupol was edited into a short film "Our home is on fire" by a Ukrainian journalist on behalf of the family who lived in the city through the siege. They were able to survive and flee to Europe at some point afterward and took the footage with them. It is quite rare because journalists were intentionally sniped while civilians very quickly lost access to electricity and couldn't use phones for filming. This guy had solar panels and was apparently a local geek so he could capture some of this on camera. There are no Eng subtitles yet so it steals a lot of context. But the images at least are important to see and the overall atmosphere is important to feel.

My favourite moment is when the family tries to loot the hit Russian truck and realize that it had very strong armoured windows... but a very weak metal frame and a simple rifle apparently shot and killed the driver. So they laugh at Russian stupidity.
The most heartbreaking part is when they come to visit Kolya's family (the boy, who played a guitar) and find them all dead to a Russian aerial bomb. And they can't even bury anyone.