Ukraine Today

[Untitled.]

Combined with your avatar that comment sounds hilariously racist.

 

[Trueten]

Hey Europe. Won't you help us take Crimea and make it part of Turkey?

I'm afraid you'll have to stand in line with this folks.

 

[Adorno]

The EU and NATO need to acknowledge the situation for what it is:
an invasion by Russia on territory of the sovereign state of Ukraine.
The entire diplomatic apparatus must be used, and sanctions an option.
I realise most 'Crimeans' favour Russia, but disputes over territory must be handled diplomatically and democratically.

 

[The Bowman]

And here is the press conference.
http://www.publika.md/primele-declaratii-ale-lui-ianukovici--sunt-in-continuare-presedintele-ucrainei-live-video-text_1825881.html
Oh, yes...and he bought a 52 million $ palace in the Moscow suburbs. The bastard wants to live even better. (source is from the same news channel)
More news about the siege of those airports. (russian language)
http://www.publika.md/tensiune-in-crimeea--doua-aeroporturi-au-fost-asediate-de-oameni-inarmati--iar-kievul-acuza-rusia-de-invazie-si-ocupatie-live-text_1825661.html

 

[Chechen!]

Question. What would it take for Ukraine to be able to deploy UN forces? And why couldn't/didn't  Georgia?

 

[Mage246]

It would take a Security Council Resolution authorizing the use of force. Which would never happen, since Russia would veto.

 

[Chechen!]

Right, thanks. I thought so.

 

[Trueten]

I realise most 'Crimeans' favour Russia, but disputes over territory must be handled diplomatically and democratically.

Umm, yeah, but the question is - how come Crimea isn't russian yet? The answer - because among russians and ukranians living in Crimea, there's also a lot of Crimean Tartars (muslims, close to the turks natives). They hate russians and will never agree to join Russia. If Russia decides to take Crimea, then it'll receive another Chechnya (Crimea has a lot of mountains - a perfect place for partisan guerilla activity), not to mention how much ukranians and muslims from all of the world would go to fight there.

But one russian expert states that Putin simply wants to provoke a civil war in Ukraine. That means not only in Crimea, but in the rest - the whole eastern and southern parts. May be central. So, this weekend is expected to see a lot of provocative stuff in regions.
In case of a real civil war a-la Syria, local populace and even UNO will agree that somebody should send some troops to stabilize the situation. Though, I really can't see how can Putler make it all real, but that's the plan as I understood. I guess, it is needed for him to show russians that the desire to fight against your Master ends up like this.

 

[Beny]

Just looking at the facts here, superpowers have gone to war for less.

 

[Anthropoid]

Just looking at the facts here, superpowers have gone to war for less.

True. But none of them are really "super" anymore. More like "appeciably-effective despite each of their own particular Achille's heels."

This is just like one of my Victoria II games, crisis' are a pain. -.-
What is Russia getting out of this... aren't they pumping fuel to the Ukraine on a 33% cost subsidy already? It's not as if Ukraine will be indebted to the Russians for a long time anyway.

Geopolitical **** waving is sort of like the state level equivalent of viagra for decrepit, dirty, rotten old regimes.

ADDIT stuff  . . .

 

[Mage246]

US conventional forces are stronger now and have a much larger lead on any potential rivals than at any other point in history, at least when it comes to quickly defeating an opponent's conventional forces. The only thing that has changed in that regard is our understanding of the limits of conventional military force. True, the economy is weaker, and war weariness is a major factor, but when people talk about superpowers they are generally speaking of raw military capability.

 

[ancalimon]

Question. What would it take for Ukraine to be able to deploy UN forces? And why couldn't/didn't  Georgia?

They are all afraid of Russia a lot. Georgia could not do anything. Azerbaijan could not do anything when Armenia invaded its lands. The situation is the same with Ukraine.

The only two countries that could do anything were Greece and Turkey and that was with the help of America.

 

[Anthropoid]

US conventional forces are stronger now and have a much larger lead on any potential rivals than at any other point in history, at least when it comes to quickly defeating an opponent's conventional forces. The only thing that has changed in that regard is our understanding of the limits of conventional military force. True, the economy is weaker, and war weariness is a major factor, but when people talk about superpowers they are generally speaking of raw military capability.

Yes. But I would argue quite simply that the term "superpower" and all it represents in terms of post-WWII geopolitical process is obsolete. The realities of present day Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrate that most clearly. An ultra-expensive, highly-professional, high-tech, big bang military has not insured that the U.S. has accomplished its foreign policy goals these past 10 years. Likewise, Russia has hardly got its way 100% in all of its foreign policy goals either.

We are in 'uncharted waters' as far as international relations theory and we should be cautious about developing arguments that are founded on mid-20th century models.

ADDIT: also, U.S. conventional forces are effectively 'no threat at all' to Russia. The prospect of U.S. and Russian soldiers shooting at each other is anathema to both sides, but Russia is the one more willing to bluff .the U.S., especially since Crimea is perceived by Russian leadership to be of vital interest to Russia.

If we were talking about the U.S. sending troops into Cuba the bluster might well be on the other side of the world, but the basic lingering principle of MAD would remain. Unless they wanted to risk nuclear armaggedon, Russia would never initiate actions that would likely lead to Russians shooting at Americans.

 

[Hengwulf]

Is it possible that those hired thugs also consist of "normal"  civilian Yanukovych supporters. Like the protesters but for the other side, coming to Kiev to fight for their side of the argument, and therefore protected by the government forces? Surely there must be people willing to fight for the other side?

I asked this question some days ago. Can we now confirm any of this? Were some / most of those unidentified troops Russia supporters?

 

[Mage246]

I was thinking about this earlier, and I think a false flag operation by unmarked Russian troops would be a bit too risky right now. It might have worked if it had been executed quickly, but if that's the case these guys have been far too visible for far too long. I suspect that, while they may be Russian military, they are under strict orders to avoid any provocations and are simply to prevent any damage to militarily significant infrastructure.

 

[Hengwulf]

Well I never meant foreign troops. Rather Ukranian nationalists, fascist, communists, seperatists whatever. We had a lot of maydan observation with strange snipers, thugs etc fracking about. I don't think that the president nor the oposition had any control over these radical groups whose best interest was to light the country up and hope for support in the following mayhem.

edit, this was before the Crimean stuff but during the euromaydan revolt. So a bit back

 

[Untitled.]

It's definitely possible, considering there are civilians that apparently support either side. Maybe western media is portraying it in such a light that it seems implausible. It's difficult to take anything for granted at the moment though.

 

[Trueten]

Is it possible that those hired thugs also consist of "normal"  civilian Yanukovych supporters. Like the protesters but for the other side, coming to Kiev to fight for their side of the argument, and therefore protected by the government forces? Surely there must be people willing to fight for the other side?

I asked this question some days ago. Can we now confirm any of this? Were some / most of those unidentified troops Russia supporters?

I've answered already here - http://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php/topic,295688.msg7060410.html#msg7060410

But lemme put it the other way. Imagine Yanukovich as Obama and his target audience of Eastern Ukraine - as black people of U.S. Imagine that black U.S. citizens vote for Obama just because he's black. Imagine that blackeastern ukranian people vote for Obama Yanukovich just because he's black from eastern Ukraine. Eastern Ukraine during the Soviet times grew up as Detroit Industrial Centre and was colonized by citizens throughout the whole Africa Soviet Union. After the collapse of Soviet Union this regions began to loose its industrial centre powers, became poorer and poorer. Some cities were formed around one plant. When the plant stops working the whole city goes down like Detroit. The wellfare is gone, but the populace is not. This people continue to simpathise Africa Russia as a simbol of Soviet Union which gave them prosperity. But half of them realize that it won't solve their problems. And now they are stuck - since you cannot travel back in time, this won't get back Detroit The East to its industrial glory, but Obama Yanukovich is kind of a man that represents them, and knows their feelings. They thinks he'll manage to get the 'time back'. He broke his promises - a better life and reborn of Detroit their facilities didn't happen, they're disappointed with him but they still continue to vote and support him since he's black from their own region. He's one of them.

Regarding the thugs. Imagine Obama hiring poor people from the getto's with it's gangs. They are poor, they need some money and they are brainwashed that they are send to fight the white Ku-Kluks-Klan Nazi Maidan folks. So, to sum up - the most fighting force - getto's thugs are fighting simply for money and support Yanukovich just because he's from their regions. This is an irrational belief. But they are far away from politics, cannot understand the reasons why Maidan arose and will doubtfully fight for Yanukovich with guns and not for money. Again, as I've posted before, there was a fight between Maidan and Thugs - 1:0, the thugs run away in a first clash. It wasn't even a battle.

Oh, funny thing. Today Yanukovich had his press-conference in Russia. With russian journalists. Right now I'm reading russian's reaction: "Gee Gods, I've heard rumours that he's stupid, but didn't realize he's that stupid. Now I understand why Maidan arose".

 

[Mage246]

Uh.... Your example is really bad. Black people in the US feel very little connection to Africa at all. But it's ok, I wouldn't expect you to know that.

 

[Untitled.]

I feel it's wrong to call them brainwashed. They'd probably call the Maidan activists brainwashed. Everything's relative.