viocult
Regular
A. Natural Increase (skim to the hashtag/pound sign if you want to get past the math)
ten percent of women are infertile
infant mortality (children who die before reaching 16) for peasants is 30%
infant mortality for nobility is 20 % (better fed than peasants)
peasant women die during labor 2 % of the time (It is 1.6 % in Afghanistan, so that seemed like a good number)
noble women die during labor 1 % of the time (once again, better fed)
twins are 2 % of births
pregnancy for a 16 to 40 year old female has a 25 % chance per year
each pregnancy ends in miscarriage one out of three times
the death rate of 16 to 50 year-olds is 3 % (I am cutting pregnancy off at 40. While noble women are better taken care of, duels are a liability for them that peasants do not have to deal with).
It's arguable, but I am going with 50% of babies born are female
birth of female peasants each year = ((No. of women between 16 and 40) * .9 * (2/12)) * 1.02) * .7) * .5 = 5.355%
peasant female (16 to 40) death rate = ((No. of women between 16 and 40) * ((.03) + ((.9 * (2/12))*.02) = 3.4 %
the percentage of females (16 to 40) turning 41 = 1.218 %
population increase of peasant women between 16 and 40 = 0.737 %
Using the equation Population = Original Population times e (which is 2.718281828459) to the power of (rate increase * time), I can put -16 in for time to help see what the population was 16 years before. This gives me an adjusted population increase of females per year of 0.655 % for the current female population (16 to 40).
The noble numbers are Birth Rate = 6.12 %, Death Rate of females 16 to 40 = 3.2 %, women turning 41 as percentage of 16 to 40 year-olds = 1.205 %, which gives a rate of increase of 1.715 %, which means the noble females turning 16 is 1.303 % of the female noble population(16 to 40).
# The number of males turning 16 will the same number as females turning 16.
In Warband, Caravan Masters are the only middle class soldiers you can hire, so I did not bother calculating their increase. Blacksmiths and millers should have the 1.303 % female population turning 16 (Why not more? 1. Forges and Mills are dangerous places and children are not always wise where they stand 2. Merchants have bodyguards, nobles are their own bodyguards, and peasants have nothing worth guarding, so blacksmiths and millers are choice targets for robbery. Sometimes, the victim does not survive this encounter.). The middle class in cities should have the 0.655 % increase.
B. Refugees
1. Those who stay:
a. In the first episode of Marc Maron's show he has the following encounter: Dennis Leary: "What is that smell?" Marc Maron: "I think it is an opossum that crawled under the house and died." DL: "How long has it been like this?" MM: "About two weeks." DL: "It has stunk like this and you haven't done anything about it?" MM: "I thought I'd just ride it out."
b. 12 % of the female population and 6 % of the male population have depression. No matter how bad things get they will suffer through it (and maybe supply a morbid joke for the rest of us to enjoy). Including their spouses, this is around 17.1% of the population. These are not included in the percentage that leave.
2. Peasants will not leave until they have harvested their crops or the crops have been destroyed
3. Mills and Forges are tougher to convert to cash and are heavy to transport (Blacksmiths always have guard their valuables against jackals/coyotes who use the anvils to hunt roadrunners). Blacksmiths and Millers won't leave until at a -75 relations score. They have a 20 % chance of leaving after that for every -5 relation score below negative 75.
4. Since leaving your village is illegal, peasants will seek the closest village of a different nation. If a village on the border of a different nation, it simply has to get to the threshold of 5 % of the population wanting to flee. The next closest (twice the distance of the border villages) has to get to 10 % and the closest after that to 20 %, then 40 %, then 80 %.
5. A village at absolute poverty (the lowest economic level) will have 20 % of its population wanting to leave if the closest village it can go to is at the highest economic level, 10 % for the second highest, and 5 % for the third highest. If a village has a higher economic level than the nearest village it can go to, its desire to go will be - 10 % for each level higher in economic level.
6. Lords failing to protect a village will have a decline in relations with their village every time they fail to protect it with their negative relation being the percent of villagers that want to leave (plus economic consideration).
7. Fleeing villagers will join their first encounter whether it is the other nation, bandits, or their original lord. Unless their poor relation with their lord is corrected after he brings them back, they will only stay until their next harvest or if they get raided again.
8. The same rules apply to towns, but a garrison can force them to stay. Any time a town is attacked the lord's relation will be subtracted by the highest enemy's relation to the town. This is the maximum help in percentage the town will give to whatever side is favored. An untrained population will give half of the army's number it supports in number of peasants to assist. A militia level trained population will provide the side it supports with the same number of troops that are in that army. Failing to take a city in an attack will cause a - 10 in relations as well as whatever percentage the number of dead peasants/militia that were on your side represents.
9. A lord has the option to at any time the town is not being attacked to allow the malcontents in the town to leave. They will go to the nearest town of a different nation. Such refugees will cause the cost of food to go up and wages to decrease in the town that they go to. This will cause the new town's relation with its lord to decline.
C. Wages
1. Where the supply curve will start (just multiply by 1.5 if you don't want to use a supply/demand chart) : In a temperate climate, the minimum cost per week of a single male peasant mercenary is 1.1 (50 days of meals bag) grain or 2.2 bag vegetable (whichever is more).The cost of a single female peasant mercenary is 1.3 bags grain or 2.6 bags vegetable (women are able to sell more of the crops they grow since they eat less). A married peasant mercenary cost 1.2 grain or 2.4 vegetable.Northern climates with shorter growing seasons would cost 1.1 bag vegetable. Sub Tropical climate peasants would cost 1.1 bag grain plus 1.1 bag vegetable. Equatorial peasants single male peasants would cost 3.3 bags grain.
2. It cost twice as much to hire peasant (or noble) mercenaries from land you don't own (since they would have to fear attacking their home village).
3. Hiring mercenaries from a culture group that is not your own cost 20 % more (it is easier to negotiate in your native tongue).
4. Training (when you have a hammer everything looks like a nail): While there are a lot less peasants trained as militia, the trained ones are twice as likely to become mercenaries. Militia trained peasants are just 60% more expensive because of this. Being an even bigger hammer, a noble is only 300 % more expensive (what else is he going to do...work? He does need enough to afford his squire, horse, etc.).
5. A mercenary being hired by a different class cost twice as much. The peasants see the nobles and middle class as having the money to spend. A noble has to compensate for the worry of a leader that does not have 18 years of experience preparing for war. The middle class figures "If they are desperate enough to hire me at least I should die rich."
6. Equipment - some trained troops have lost their equipment due to neglect or misuse (or theft). Providing equipment can shift the supply curve to the left (to 2/3 start of the supply curve) and the cost of the equipment can be used as partial pay. History can repeat itself and their equipment is more likely to spoil than the average soldier.
7. A certain percentage of troops are doves that just want peaceful garrison duty, and hawks who want battle with the promise of very lucrative loot. The majority could go either way.
8. Attitude toward a recruiter: Villages on the map represent several villages and should recharge quicker for looting purposes (so you can bounce from villages on the map destroying as you go). There should be a raid option of just quickly torching a hamlet. Looting deals with the resistance of several hamlets (plus knights too old to assemble for the king's army) so it takes longer to grab supplies. Since he is at war, the attacker can't even recruit from these villages, so the 5 % increased cost of mercenaries don't phase him. For failing to protect the villages he liberally taxes, the owning lords cost go up 2 % to hire from the attitude of the people (too bad since the mercenary supply population went up by a bunch of people that just lost all they own). The bandit recruiters will be the big winner in these raids (maybe even enough to dress as the enemy and do their own hamlet burning).
9. Mercenaries outside of Calradia: 30 % are willing to leave the area they live in, but half of these will have obligations that cause them to stay. Still this means the area just outside Calradia can supply 120 % of the mercenaries Calradia can (minus about 2 % that die travelling to Calradia). They were paid by a merchant for guarding his caravan on the journey to Calradia, but still expect 10 % more than a local mercenary for the time spent journeying to Calradia. A little further out than these, there are 150 % of the Calradia mercenary population (with 4 % that die trying to reach Calradia). They expect 20 % more than their service would have been at home. Half of them are subtropical, so they would be 50 % even greater in price (they wouldn't bother leaving till the
mercenary price approached this adequate compensation). A sixth of them would from the North, so they would be half the price.
a. A small percentage of noble mercenaries will just be civilians in disguised. For the most part, this will be discovered by your other noble mercenaries that will not be happy some pretender is using their relative's heraldry device. The peasant mercenaries will be harder to catch (and be more abundant). Merchants can be used to recruit certified mercenaries from foreign nations outside of Calradia. They have the added price or 20 % to the king who rules the country that the mercenaries are from and a 12 % handling fee to the merchant just for the two weeks the merchant takes getting the mercenaries to the hiring country (The hiring nation has to pay the mercenaries for the two weeks of travel). A ruler has to have a relationship score of 30 with a town to use its merchants to hire foreign mercenaries.
ten percent of women are infertile
infant mortality (children who die before reaching 16) for peasants is 30%
infant mortality for nobility is 20 % (better fed than peasants)
peasant women die during labor 2 % of the time (It is 1.6 % in Afghanistan, so that seemed like a good number)
noble women die during labor 1 % of the time (once again, better fed)
twins are 2 % of births
pregnancy for a 16 to 40 year old female has a 25 % chance per year
each pregnancy ends in miscarriage one out of three times
the death rate of 16 to 50 year-olds is 3 % (I am cutting pregnancy off at 40. While noble women are better taken care of, duels are a liability for them that peasants do not have to deal with).
It's arguable, but I am going with 50% of babies born are female
birth of female peasants each year = ((No. of women between 16 and 40) * .9 * (2/12)) * 1.02) * .7) * .5 = 5.355%
peasant female (16 to 40) death rate = ((No. of women between 16 and 40) * ((.03) + ((.9 * (2/12))*.02) = 3.4 %
the percentage of females (16 to 40) turning 41 = 1.218 %
population increase of peasant women between 16 and 40 = 0.737 %
Using the equation Population = Original Population times e (which is 2.718281828459) to the power of (rate increase * time), I can put -16 in for time to help see what the population was 16 years before. This gives me an adjusted population increase of females per year of 0.655 % for the current female population (16 to 40).
The noble numbers are Birth Rate = 6.12 %, Death Rate of females 16 to 40 = 3.2 %, women turning 41 as percentage of 16 to 40 year-olds = 1.205 %, which gives a rate of increase of 1.715 %, which means the noble females turning 16 is 1.303 % of the female noble population(16 to 40).
# The number of males turning 16 will the same number as females turning 16.
In Warband, Caravan Masters are the only middle class soldiers you can hire, so I did not bother calculating their increase. Blacksmiths and millers should have the 1.303 % female population turning 16 (Why not more? 1. Forges and Mills are dangerous places and children are not always wise where they stand 2. Merchants have bodyguards, nobles are their own bodyguards, and peasants have nothing worth guarding, so blacksmiths and millers are choice targets for robbery. Sometimes, the victim does not survive this encounter.). The middle class in cities should have the 0.655 % increase.
B. Refugees
1. Those who stay:
a. In the first episode of Marc Maron's show he has the following encounter: Dennis Leary: "What is that smell?" Marc Maron: "I think it is an opossum that crawled under the house and died." DL: "How long has it been like this?" MM: "About two weeks." DL: "It has stunk like this and you haven't done anything about it?" MM: "I thought I'd just ride it out."
b. 12 % of the female population and 6 % of the male population have depression. No matter how bad things get they will suffer through it (and maybe supply a morbid joke for the rest of us to enjoy). Including their spouses, this is around 17.1% of the population. These are not included in the percentage that leave.
2. Peasants will not leave until they have harvested their crops or the crops have been destroyed
3. Mills and Forges are tougher to convert to cash and are heavy to transport (Blacksmiths always have guard their valuables against jackals/coyotes who use the anvils to hunt roadrunners). Blacksmiths and Millers won't leave until at a -75 relations score. They have a 20 % chance of leaving after that for every -5 relation score below negative 75.
4. Since leaving your village is illegal, peasants will seek the closest village of a different nation. If a village on the border of a different nation, it simply has to get to the threshold of 5 % of the population wanting to flee. The next closest (twice the distance of the border villages) has to get to 10 % and the closest after that to 20 %, then 40 %, then 80 %.
5. A village at absolute poverty (the lowest economic level) will have 20 % of its population wanting to leave if the closest village it can go to is at the highest economic level, 10 % for the second highest, and 5 % for the third highest. If a village has a higher economic level than the nearest village it can go to, its desire to go will be - 10 % for each level higher in economic level.
6. Lords failing to protect a village will have a decline in relations with their village every time they fail to protect it with their negative relation being the percent of villagers that want to leave (plus economic consideration).
7. Fleeing villagers will join their first encounter whether it is the other nation, bandits, or their original lord. Unless their poor relation with their lord is corrected after he brings them back, they will only stay until their next harvest or if they get raided again.
8. The same rules apply to towns, but a garrison can force them to stay. Any time a town is attacked the lord's relation will be subtracted by the highest enemy's relation to the town. This is the maximum help in percentage the town will give to whatever side is favored. An untrained population will give half of the army's number it supports in number of peasants to assist. A militia level trained population will provide the side it supports with the same number of troops that are in that army. Failing to take a city in an attack will cause a - 10 in relations as well as whatever percentage the number of dead peasants/militia that were on your side represents.
9. A lord has the option to at any time the town is not being attacked to allow the malcontents in the town to leave. They will go to the nearest town of a different nation. Such refugees will cause the cost of food to go up and wages to decrease in the town that they go to. This will cause the new town's relation with its lord to decline.
C. Wages
1. Where the supply curve will start (just multiply by 1.5 if you don't want to use a supply/demand chart) : In a temperate climate, the minimum cost per week of a single male peasant mercenary is 1.1 (50 days of meals bag) grain or 2.2 bag vegetable (whichever is more).The cost of a single female peasant mercenary is 1.3 bags grain or 2.6 bags vegetable (women are able to sell more of the crops they grow since they eat less). A married peasant mercenary cost 1.2 grain or 2.4 vegetable.Northern climates with shorter growing seasons would cost 1.1 bag vegetable. Sub Tropical climate peasants would cost 1.1 bag grain plus 1.1 bag vegetable. Equatorial peasants single male peasants would cost 3.3 bags grain.
2. It cost twice as much to hire peasant (or noble) mercenaries from land you don't own (since they would have to fear attacking their home village).
3. Hiring mercenaries from a culture group that is not your own cost 20 % more (it is easier to negotiate in your native tongue).
4. Training (when you have a hammer everything looks like a nail): While there are a lot less peasants trained as militia, the trained ones are twice as likely to become mercenaries. Militia trained peasants are just 60% more expensive because of this. Being an even bigger hammer, a noble is only 300 % more expensive (what else is he going to do...work? He does need enough to afford his squire, horse, etc.).
5. A mercenary being hired by a different class cost twice as much. The peasants see the nobles and middle class as having the money to spend. A noble has to compensate for the worry of a leader that does not have 18 years of experience preparing for war. The middle class figures "If they are desperate enough to hire me at least I should die rich."
6. Equipment - some trained troops have lost their equipment due to neglect or misuse (or theft). Providing equipment can shift the supply curve to the left (to 2/3 start of the supply curve) and the cost of the equipment can be used as partial pay. History can repeat itself and their equipment is more likely to spoil than the average soldier.
7. A certain percentage of troops are doves that just want peaceful garrison duty, and hawks who want battle with the promise of very lucrative loot. The majority could go either way.
8. Attitude toward a recruiter: Villages on the map represent several villages and should recharge quicker for looting purposes (so you can bounce from villages on the map destroying as you go). There should be a raid option of just quickly torching a hamlet. Looting deals with the resistance of several hamlets (plus knights too old to assemble for the king's army) so it takes longer to grab supplies. Since he is at war, the attacker can't even recruit from these villages, so the 5 % increased cost of mercenaries don't phase him. For failing to protect the villages he liberally taxes, the owning lords cost go up 2 % to hire from the attitude of the people (too bad since the mercenary supply population went up by a bunch of people that just lost all they own). The bandit recruiters will be the big winner in these raids (maybe even enough to dress as the enemy and do their own hamlet burning).
9. Mercenaries outside of Calradia: 30 % are willing to leave the area they live in, but half of these will have obligations that cause them to stay. Still this means the area just outside Calradia can supply 120 % of the mercenaries Calradia can (minus about 2 % that die travelling to Calradia). They were paid by a merchant for guarding his caravan on the journey to Calradia, but still expect 10 % more than a local mercenary for the time spent journeying to Calradia. A little further out than these, there are 150 % of the Calradia mercenary population (with 4 % that die trying to reach Calradia). They expect 20 % more than their service would have been at home. Half of them are subtropical, so they would be 50 % even greater in price (they wouldn't bother leaving till the
mercenary price approached this adequate compensation). A sixth of them would from the North, so they would be half the price.
a. A small percentage of noble mercenaries will just be civilians in disguised. For the most part, this will be discovered by your other noble mercenaries that will not be happy some pretender is using their relative's heraldry device. The peasant mercenaries will be harder to catch (and be more abundant). Merchants can be used to recruit certified mercenaries from foreign nations outside of Calradia. They have the added price or 20 % to the king who rules the country that the mercenaries are from and a 12 % handling fee to the merchant just for the two weeks the merchant takes getting the mercenaries to the hiring country (The hiring nation has to pay the mercenaries for the two weeks of travel). A ruler has to have a relationship score of 30 with a town to use its merchants to hire foreign mercenaries.
