How does the AI Make Decisions?

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The AI isn't known for its genius strategic skill but in my most recent game I find it is making decisions that seem very counter-intuitive and self defeating. This has left me wondering how the AI chooses its war targets and what the rationale for those choices are.

In my Sturgia game we fended off Vlandia and then had a war with the Northern Empire. It was going well at first. We beat their invasions and went on the offensive. There is a perfectly vulnerable major city right on the Sturgian border with the Empire and I thought that would be the obvious choice.

Apparently the AI disagreed. Raganvad became fixated on taking Diathma which is deep inside enemy territory. He sent three separate armies after it and we took it twice only for it to be taken back immediately, and each time we took it the Northern Empire swept in and crushed our army. Meanwhile when they went on the offensive the Northern Empire made the sane, sensible choice of going after Omor which was easily accessible to them and wouldn't cut them off from reinforcements or retreat.

Eventually the Western Empire showed up and kicked us in the teeth, but that isn't relevant to the discussion.

What was making the AI so fixated on Diathma? Did it not factor in the lake when deciding what target was nearest? This seems most likely to me. But it could also just be bad luck on my end that the AI became obsessed with a city they could never keep and wasted all of Sturgia's manpower trying to take it.

I can't help but feel we could've won that war if the AI had made a more sensible decision and went after Epicrotea instead.
 
Raganvad is a potato in tactics xD

And back to being serious. Seems like currently the whole war mechanics/diplomacy/politics are in most basic form and I found that they try to target closest most profitable city. I may be mistaken didn't test it fully but is my observation based on two wars and siege decisions I saw.
 
There are alot of AI decisions that beg more questions. My battanians just went to war with the aseraians. Western and southern empires still in tact. Now I can assume that either side decided to start attacking caravans but, other then that, there is no reason.
Maybe when there are other features in place(ie. Trade embargo) my situation could be handled differently but the war targeting AI seems like it should be fixed a little sooner rather than later.
 
There are alot of AI decisions that beg more questions. My battanians just went to war with the aseraians. Western and southern empires still in tact. Now I can assume that either side decided to start attacking caravans but, other then that, there is no reason.
Maybe when there are other features in place(ie. Trade embargo) my situation could be handled differently but the war targeting AI seems like it should be fixed a little sooner rather than later.

Apart from which settlements they choose to attack (why not go for the closest first?). The AI faction leaders are also ridiculous in picking targets for war declarations. I was playing as a Sturgian vassal and didn't bother getting involved in the wars at all due to who the AI chose to declare wars on. Sturgia bordered the Khuzaits, Battania and the Northern Empire, yet the AI had the idea to declare war on the Southern Empire, the Western Empire and Vlandia (Battania had already cut Vlandia off from bordering Sturgia). The Khuzaits even held a Sturgian town from a previous war (not Tyal, one in the middle of Sturgian territory of course) but they were left alone.
 
I make the same suggestion. AI should target castles or towns near to his own fields. There is no point in taking a Castle deep inside enemy territory. Impossible to defend.
This is a thing in Warband too
 
Raganvad throws darts at a map of Calradia and picks a fight with whoever it lands on

I am now convinced Raganvad actively wants Sturgia to fail. His war making is already an issue, but in my playing today he did something truly bizarre.

We made some modest gains on Battania after I lead an army to re-take Omor and Varcheg. After taking some castles I ran out of influence and my army dissolved. We were stuck in a brutal stalemate with Battania for several in-game months after that where I was struggling just to keep the castles we've taken.

Then Vlandia jumped in on the now pathetically weak Battania. I thought this was it! We can now easily devour the remains of Battania and solidify our position as a major player on the map.

.... And then Raganvad sued for peace on the eve before I could take our first major city. We were literally mid-siege after having destroyed Caladog's army.

So after months of a stalemate and me hoping Raganvad would sue for peace so Sturgia could digest its winnings and recover power for the next war we finally get a perfect chance to make a massive land grab and Raganvad chooses THAT MOMENT to make peace.

Now Vlandia is eating Battania and just doubled their size with almost no effort at all as we did all the work for them.
 
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