[Werewolf] Werewolf High - Wolf Victory!
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A few more thoughts:
I still think Bowser is a bad lynch choice. I counted 10 out of the 12 players who have checked-in as having complained about his posting and expressed suspicions about it (i.e. everyone expect Bowser himself and me), and most of them seem to be willing to vote for him. "8 to lynch" with only 12 active players should be hard to reach, but we hit that waaaay too easily with Bowser, which I think should give everyone pause. For Bowser to be a wolf, his packies would either have to be the three players who have not checked-in yet, players completely willing to bus him early on - both of which I find highly unlikely.
One of the things that stuck out to me the most about Archer was his flip on Bowser-
Which I find hilarious, because he started to get the votes rolling on Bowser with this. At the time, Bowser's vote on Untitled was only the second - hardly what I would call "trying to get a bandwagon-lynch going," especially since Untitled was not suspected much and chances are nobody was going to follow him, given he lost all credibility within the first page. If anything, Archer's post here is more guilty of what he accuses Bowser of than Bowser is.
Vote: Arch3r
Rocketsheep, in the little that he has talked (which I am not knocking you on - just stating a fact), has only commented on Bowser, but despite seemingly hinting that he thinks his actions are suspicious, basically claims that he doesn't actually have an opinion on him:
If he has no opinion on him, why solely dedicate posts talking about him? In Rocket's own words, "he is just moving his mouth to create activity."
There has also been some interesting banter between a few players in ways that I see as suspicious, but I doubt anyone is willing to hear my MIFOM.
I still think Bowser is a bad lynch choice. I counted 10 out of the 12 players who have checked-in as having complained about his posting and expressed suspicions about it (i.e. everyone expect Bowser himself and me), and most of them seem to be willing to vote for him. "8 to lynch" with only 12 active players should be hard to reach, but we hit that waaaay too easily with Bowser, which I think should give everyone pause. For Bowser to be a wolf, his packies would either have to be the three players who have not checked-in yet, players completely willing to bus him early on - both of which I find highly unlikely.
One of the things that stuck out to me the most about Archer was his flip on Bowser-
Which I find hilarious, because he started to get the votes rolling on Bowser with this. At the time, Bowser's vote on Untitled was only the second - hardly what I would call "trying to get a bandwagon-lynch going," especially since Untitled was not suspected much and chances are nobody was going to follow him, given he lost all credibility within the first page. If anything, Archer's post here is more guilty of what he accuses Bowser of than Bowser is.
Vote: Arch3r
Rocketsheep, in the little that he has talked (which I am not knocking you on - just stating a fact), has only commented on Bowser, but despite seemingly hinting that he thinks his actions are suspicious, basically claims that he doesn't actually have an opinion on him:
Rocketsheep said:
If he has no opinion on him, why solely dedicate posts talking about him? In Rocket's own words, "he is just moving his mouth to create activity."
There has also been some interesting banter between a few players in ways that I see as suspicious, but I doubt anyone is willing to hear my MIFOM.
True. But I reckon his packmates, if he were to have such, might also be unwilling to stick their necks out to contradict the current flow of events and risk either exposure or later suspicion this early.
Do you think his packmates would have been all over him from the start of the day, instead of ignoring him or saying "meh, he's annoying, but not suspicious at the moment?"
So why are you voting for him? You never gave an explanation after the joke vote.
Fair point.Orgasmo said:
Have you considered any of my arguments? You could even apply Bodrax's belief of "wolves are concerned with survival" to Bowser's play - does it look like he is concerned with surviving?
Orgasmo said:
Who are your other suspects?
Bodrax
Regular
Fair point, but how many of those are actually players who are pushing for a Bowser lynch? A negative comment at the beginning of the game doesn't mean much, specially when the target of your comment is trying to commit suicide from his very first post. Take Zhou, for example. He was voting with Bowser before and just moved his vote against him after it got clearer that Bowser was the primary lynch candidate. Or Rocketsheep, who made a post against Bowser with the caveat that he didn't find him suspicious.Orgasmo said:
Never underestimate the wolves need to belong to the majority. This possibility is pretty high.Teofish said:
It was a good opportunity to create some distance. I doubt any of us thought the situation would evolve this way back then. There was plenty of time for someone to naturally take the spotlight,Orgasmo said:
if Bowser had toned down his behavior a bit.
Some koopas just want to see the world burn.Orgasmo said:
What does the first "M" in "MIFOM" stand for? "Mine" in front of me?Orgasmo said:
On voting, I was quite honestly considering voting Bowser close to the end of the deadline, perhaps to be the "tipping vote" and convince myself that I actually know how one is supposed to hunt... but the only thing I've got against him is the ugly green text, and hanging him won't solve that issue.
Is it okay to abstain from voting when you don't feel like doing it, or should you just vote anyway?
Count again, his vote was the third. First was Ah_Zhou, then was Bodrax and then it was him voting. So no, not the second. For me, three is a charm.Orgasmo said:
He was indeed innocent in my eyes, until that 3rd vote on Untitled. I'm not really sure he's the right choice, but I simply found his voting suspicious, which is a better reason for a vote than any of the people voting on Untitled have given.
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As for this:
True in a sense, but I actually took a long time typing that post due to being at work, see:
I hadn't read up on those 11 replies yet when I hit the post button. I could've revised the entire post again, but there would just come more replies to revise the post again.Arch3r said:
Oh wait, you were correct. He was only the 2nd one to vote for him. Oops.
You do make a fair point about wolves being concerned with their survival and Bowser does not fit that bill. Which is why I originally crossed him off as a wolf. Thing is, it's not a game with JUST new people, for all I know King Bowser could be an experienced player. (I don't actually know who all the dupe's are, I'll shamefully admit)
Unvote
I am aware today is the deadline, but Bowser is probably the wrong vote. Now to rethink stuff.
You do make a fair point about wolves being concerned with their survival and Bowser does not fit that bill. Which is why I originally crossed him off as a wolf. Thing is, it's not a game with JUST new people, for all I know King Bowser could be an experienced player. (I don't actually know who all the dupe's are, I'll shamefully admit)
Unvote
I am aware today is the deadline, but Bowser is probably the wrong vote. Now to rethink stuff.
[quote author=Bodrax]Fair point, but how many of those are actually players who are pushing for a Bowser lynch? [/quote]
Quite a few, but as you know, sometimes it is best to "test the waters" and see what the popular opinion is before voting as a wolf, as with a negative comment of little consequence.
Eh, maybe in games like this where 8 / 12 are needed for a vote. On Day 1, I have always found the wolves split in their votes (like 50-50 on-off).
Do you think newer players would be more willing to out their pakies by early distancing? Personally I feel as if they would not want to say much about them. In either case, I find arguments of "distancing" to be too difficult to evaluate most of the time. Sometimes you can tell how genuine a person is being, but you can say any argument made by any player could be a packie trying to distance themselves from another. Plus I don't think it is even a good tactic for wolves to try - you risk building suspicion on a packie, coming off as insincere, and even if the player is lynched, you rarely get cleared from suspecting them. It's also one of those things that has become so standard in wolf play that veteran players might try to avoid it.
Another point about Bowser is that few others have bothered to make arguments for other suspects. Normally if the wolves do not like the lynch target they will put other options on the table, but instead we have nearly everyone content with Bowser.
[quote author=Lumps]What does the first "M" in "MIFOM" stand for? "Mine" in front of me? [/quote]
"Meta in front of me."
Arch3r, are you going to vote for the player that placed the 3rd vote on Untitled then?
Quite a few, but as you know, sometimes it is best to "test the waters" and see what the popular opinion is before voting as a wolf, as with a negative comment of little consequence.
Eh, maybe in games like this where 8 / 12 are needed for a vote. On Day 1, I have always found the wolves split in their votes (like 50-50 on-off).
Do you think newer players would be more willing to out their pakies by early distancing? Personally I feel as if they would not want to say much about them. In either case, I find arguments of "distancing" to be too difficult to evaluate most of the time. Sometimes you can tell how genuine a person is being, but you can say any argument made by any player could be a packie trying to distance themselves from another. Plus I don't think it is even a good tactic for wolves to try - you risk building suspicion on a packie, coming off as insincere, and even if the player is lynched, you rarely get cleared from suspecting them. It's also one of those things that has become so standard in wolf play that veteran players might try to avoid it.
Another point about Bowser is that few others have bothered to make arguments for other suspects. Normally if the wolves do not like the lynch target they will put other options on the table, but instead we have nearly everyone content with Bowser.
[quote author=Lumps]What does the first "M" in "MIFOM" stand for? "Mine" in front of me? [/quote]
"Meta in front of me."
Arch3r, are you going to vote for the player that placed the 3rd vote on Untitled then?
2. Big McLarge-Huge - Somewhat suspicious to me. His accusation of Untitled was a bit of weird vote in my opinion. I originally held this against Bowser, thinking he was the third to vote, but maybe I should look at the source.
3. McConor - I don't think his reasoning on voting Bowser was off by much, as I leaned a bit in the same direction.
4. Bodrax - As the quote below says, I lean more towards innocent here. More of a gut feeling than actual solid reasoning I suppose, but his accusation to draw me out smells like innocence.
5. Lumos - Seems like he's still getting into the game, there's nothing to lynch him for right now, but nothing to clear him either.
7. Ah_Zhou - Some vote mistakes as well as just voting for whichever vote is popular at the time. Despite that, I actually think it's just because 'new to the game' and not really wolfish.
8. Orgasmo, Enchanted Dildo - Best innocent read for me so far. Not just saying that because he votes for me and I want him to drop suspicion, he fairly pointed me at my mistakes. His posts are just logical for me and fit the bill of innocent.
9. Teofish - I dunno. Seems a bit too early to judge. His posts don't stand out much. I don't think I've seen enough of him to vote for him, but he hasn't done much that would mark him innocent to me.
10. Leifr Eiriksson - Only one post: https://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php/topic,342967.msg8198638.html#msg8198638 with nothing much in it. Could easily be a wolf, I don't think anyone looked at him at all for this reason.
12. Untitled. - Got voted on for little/no reason, even if Bowser is innocent, which I'm reconsidering now, voting for him is nor wolfish or innocent. It's just trying to survive. I don't really see much of a wolf in him, nor have I seen anyone else give convincing arguments to him being a wolf.
13. King Bowser - Ugh. WIFOM: A wolf trying to get as much attention as possible. Or just an innocent, not concerned with survival at all? 50-50 for me.
14. Rocketsheep - Some banter with King Bowser happened, but other than that I couldn't get much out of his posts that makes him wolf or innocent.
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Some argumentation.
This quote-block contains some information about Bodrax and Big Mc-Adventurous. Bodrax just claims I am a wolf. Admittedly, probably to just draw me out (or someone else, if there were packmates to speak of. I don't think anyone really responded to this but me, though). Big Mc then just sort of does the same, but with Untitled. I am not sure what to think of it. I cannot really explain it much, but to me, the way Bodrax did it (trying to draw me out specifically) makes more sense than what Big Mc-Huge did (Bait out untitled, and me perhaps).Big McLarge-Huge said:I think Bowser is clean. Arch3r...dunno.Bodrax said:
Untitled, however...
I only am a sex-offender when somebody takes control of my actions who isn't responsible and/or obsessed with raping Goblins. And killing women who are anyway willing...uh, maybe I shouldn't be saying all this?
My theory can be somewhat confirmed with these posts:
Big McLarge-Huge said:
Anyways, on the topic of McConor and Bowser in a sense:
I think this is basically the direction I was thinking.McConor said:
I could, but Ah_Zhou seems more like a new player than a wolf to me. You disagree?Orgasmo said:
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I suppose right now my top three consists of (in no particular order)
- Big Mc-Adventurous, as I've tried to make clear above.
- King Bowser, simply because still 50-50 is still more than what I have on most others.
- Leifr, simply because not posting much at all, while still being active on the forum.
But, one or more of the three MIA people could also easily be a wolf. Which is something to consider. And would be bad for the game.
Ugh, I don't know who to vote for, but I don't think it will still be Bowser of those 3. Big Mc and Leifr might work for me, but I'll wait for what some of the others say.
[quote author=Bowser]I could, but Ah_Zhou seems more like a new player than a wolf to me. You disagree?[/quote]
You didn't express the same concern when voting for Bowser (i.e. not knowing if he is new or a vet) and despite previously thinking he was innocent, abandoned your first read due to thinking he had piled on the third vote. So why is Ah_Zhou treated differently, especially since you could argue that he has piled votes on twice now (once on Untitled, once on Bowser)?
You didn't express the same concern when voting for Bowser (i.e. not knowing if he is new or a vet) and despite previously thinking he was innocent, abandoned your first read due to thinking he had piled on the third vote. So why is Ah_Zhou treated differently, especially since you could argue that he has piled votes on twice now (once on Untitled, once on Bowser)?
