When I wrote that people need to think ahead, I was thinking about what they should spend their money on, I should've been more clear regarding this. An example is that when you've just invested in a caravan and two workshops, and you're sitting at 10k denars, and you see a piece of very attractive equipment that costs 9k denars, while your party upkeep is around 500 a day. Do you purchase that piece of equipment or not? I'm willing to bet the vast majority of players prior to the patch, would purchase that piece of equipment because there were no risks whatsoever.
Now, however, after the patch, there's alot of risk involved in making the same decision. It could still pay off, your caravan might not be attacked, but the odds of it being attacked and defeated is bigger now.