People may rightfully mock Russian military ineptness, but at the end of the day, they are still winning, at least in a military way. We are now entering the siege of Kiev phase which will be long and bloody, but would only slow them down (by a lot). I just can't see how the military situation can change in favor of Ukraine, because dictators can press on even with substantial attritional losses.
If Russia was a democracy, public opinion back at home may have forced Putin to accept he can't reach his war goals and negotiate a compromise from a strong position. But Russia is not a democracy and its citizens are brainwashed daily by government-friendly media, so there's not much internal pressure (yet?) to stop the war.
They have extended land supply lines and rasputitsa-the mud season-will start soon. The troops trying to besiege Kiyv, Mikolaiv, Mariupol and Kharkov will start running out of food, potentially forcing them to attempt to storm the cities.That would be desperate, bloody move that will most likely result in tens of thousands of casualties. That might be enough for some real mass protests, and even though the people have much less influence on government than in civilized countries, the socioeconomic impact can still be significant.
But all this is aimed mostly on those who could remove Putin from power.
What I don't see is what benefit can he gain from the war now. Even if he manages some kind of military victory, there's no way Russia can maintain an occupation force even on part of the Ukrainian territory, where they'll face significant civilian resistance. And even if he manages to somehow hold on to the south Ukraine, the damage to the infrastructure and state of Russia's economy will make them only economic liability for decades.
By now, the war is just driven by one old man's tantrum, "if I can't have Ukraine, nobody can."