Ukraine Today

[TimIZ]

Russia might be preparing a retreat to the eastern regions.
Claiming "first phase of the war is over". The endgame could be fighting for Donbas.
But anything but a conquest with regime change in Ukraine will be a defeat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60856533

Sergej Rudskoj

They might stop their advances on Kiyv (which haven`t been that serious anyway). It`s only about 30.000 men that went in from Belarus on Kiyv and Chernihiv. That doesn`t mean a retreat, just changing over to defense in the north untill they reached objectives elsewhere.

Strongest force of the Russians (1st Guards Tank Army) seemed to be in Sumy and Northern Poltava region and I have absolutely no clue, what the heck has been going on there for the last two weeks.

@MadVader:

Leak or hack, that`s the question..

I don`t doubt that the Russians have insane losses but so far I haven`t seen the consequences on the wider scale. Only area, where they seem to have been pushed back a further bit is after they lost the battle of Voznesensk on 2nd/3rd March.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-voznesensk-town-battle-11647444734
(You can read the article after logging in with Google and creating a limited access account)

This pretty much sums up about what I still understand of this war after the Ukrainians allegedly attacked Kherson airport 7 or 8 times:

 

[Mad Vader]

Russia might be preparing a retreat to the eastern regions.
Claiming "first phase of the war is over". The endgame could be fighting for Donbas.
But anything but a conquest with regime change in Ukraine will be a defeat.

The only realistic war aim is (and always was) to simply capture the rest of the separatist regions and take a pound of flesh for Ukraine going West.
Regime change was always a fantasy in a nation that hates your guts. You would have to keep it under military occupation and take losses from insurgents while gaining nothing, and ultimately withdrawing to cut your losses, which looks suspiciously like an Afghanistan-style defeat.

A Realistic Putin would capture the rest of the Luhansk and Donetsk territories, possibly remove hostile population then sit to negotiate for real, from a superior position. What would Ukraine accept? Their country is suffering and there is a strain on the population and politicians to compromise for peace.
They will not outright accept territorial losses (at least not formally), but agree to a ceasefire based on Putin's new borders. Putin would hold referendums and the republics would become more legitimate for the Russian allies and the neutrals.

Would Ukraine ever get back Crimea? We know it won't, the formal recognition of its loss is mainly a Ukrainian negotiating leverage.
But there's a much stronger case not to recognize the separatist republics and even with the new ceasefire, there will be skirmishes there in the following years and a potential flashpoint.
At least there will be peace and Ukrainians would be able to start rebuilding.
You've read it here first!

 

[Adorno]

The Ukrainian Army Has More Tanks Now Than When The War Began—Because It Keeps Capturing Them From Russia

Ukraine uses many of the same models of tanks that Russia does. There's evidence that at least some of the Russian armor the Ukrainians have captured has been put back into use ... shooting at Russians.

www.forbes.com

The tank stealing farmers have been busy

But Ukraine has captured at least 117 Russian tanks, according to open-source-intelligence analysts who scrutinize photos and videos on social media.

Those 117 tanks Ukraine has captured are just the ones analysts visually can confirm. The actual total almost certainly is much higher.

Not sure how reliable the info is.

 

[Arvenski]

That puts a new twist on the saying "drive like you stole it."

 

[TimIZ]

Report from somebody who lives outside Mariupol and went in to rescue relatives:

„Dann kam Kruglyakov zurück, um seine Mutter abzuholen. Deren Wohnblock war als einziger in der Straße vom russischen Beschuss verschont geblieben. Kruglyakov fuhr mit ihnen hinaus aus der Stadt. Dann kehrte er ein weiteres Mal zurück, um die andere Patin zu holen, die ein zwei Monate altes Baby hatte. Aber ihr Mann war zu verängstigt, um die Wohnung zu verlassen. „So wie ich es verstanden habe, waren sie, die so viel durchgemacht hatten, einfach zu eingeschüchtert, um die Wohnung überhaupt zu verlassen.“ Also warfen sie eine Münze, um zu entscheiden, ob sie bleiben oder gehen sollen.

Tragischerweise fiel die Münze auf jene Seite, die sagte, dass sie in Mariupol bleiben sollten. Kruglyakov gab ihnen zwei Minuten Bedenkzeit. Denn allzu lang könne er sein Auto nicht vor der Tür stehen lassen: Die Reifen werden dieser Tage oft gestohlen. „Dann stellte sich auch noch heraus, dass die Granatsplitter fast alle meine Reifen durchlöchert hatten.“ Die Patin und ihr Mann waren davon so verängstigt, dass sie sich endgültig entschieden, in ihrer Wohnung in Mariupol zu bleiben.

Also begab sich Kruglyakov zu einem Unterschlupf in einer örtlichen Schule und holte auf Bitten anderer Verwandter, die außerhalb von Mariupol leben, eine Familie mit Kindern ab.

"Ich wollte die Menschen aus den Kellern holen, aber sie wollten nicht gehen, weil sie es so gewohnt waren, dort zu sitzen. Sie hatten Angst vor dem, was sie außerhalb der Betonmauern erwartete. Ich musste Gewalt anwenden, um sie herauszuholen.“"

Translation:
Then Kruglyakov came back to get his mother out. Their appartment complex was the only one in the street that got spared from russian shelling. Kruglyakov took them out of the city. Then he went back a second time to pick up another godparent who had a two month old baby. But her husband was too afraid of leaving the appartment. "As far as I understood, they have gone through too much to be able to leave the appartment." So they threw a coin to decide if they should stay or go.

Unfortunately, the coin fell to the side which said they should stay in Mariupol. Kruglyakov gave them two minutes to think about it because he couldn`t let the car stay outside for too long. The tyres often get stolen these days. "Then it also became clear that grenade shrapnel perforated almost all the tyres." The godmother and her husband got so afraid of that that they finally decided to stay in their appartment in Mariupol.

So Kruglyakov went to another shelter in a local school to pick up another family with children at request of other relatives.

"I wanted to get the guys out of the cellars, but they didn`t want to go because they got accustomed to sit there. They were too afraid of what would await them outside of the walls. I had to use force to get them out."

https://www.freitag.de/autoren/the-...ariupol?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-de-DE

Yesterday I also read about shell shocked (graphic warning) civilians and a 96-year-old granny who said this time was worse than Holodomor and the Second World War.

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

Russia might be preparing a retreat to the eastern regions.
Claiming "first phase of the war is over". The endgame could be fighting for Donbas.
But anything but a conquest with regime change in Ukraine will be a defeat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60856533

Sergej Rudskoj

That's, to be fair, the only smart thing Russia(Putin) has done internally. They never stated that it was a war. For all we know, the vast majority of Russians still see it as a mission to "denazify" and protecting Russian values in UA. So even if they lose the war and retreat, they can still use the media to call it a mission succes as UA has now been denazified. Which ofcourse would've been an easy claim either way.

But for UA and the West it is an encouraging message that Russia is willing to minimize it's victory. It means that the "at all cost" scenario is now a bit further away than it was before and that there is now some negotiation going on.

Report from somebody who lives outside Mariupol and went in to rescue relatives:

Then Kruglyakov came back to get his mother out. Their appartment complex was the only one in the street that got spared from russian shelling. Kruglyakov took them out of the city. Then he went back a second time to pick up another godparent who had a two month old baby. But her husband was too afraid of leaving the appartment. "As far as I understood, they have gone through too much to be able to leave the appartment." So they threw a coin to decide if they should stay or go.

Unfortunately, the coin fell to the side which said they should stay in Mariupol. Kruglyakov gave them two minutes to think about it because he couldn`t let the car stay outside for too long. The tyres often get stolen these days. "Then it also became clear that grenade shrapnel perforated almost all the tyres." The godmother and her husband got so afraid of that that they finally decided to stay in their appartment in Mariupol.

So Kruglyakov went to another shelter in a local school to pick up another family with children at request of other relatives.

"I wanted to get the guys out of the cellars, but they didn`t want to go because they got accustomed to sit there. They were too afraid of what would await them outside of the walls. I had to use force to get them out."

https://www.freitag.de/autoren/the-...ariupol?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-de-DE

Yesterday I also read about shell shocked (graphic warning) civilians and a 96-year-old granny who said this time was worse than Holodomor and the Second World War.

That is terrible.. An entire city being under constant bombardement. The nonsense and absurdity of it all is baffling. The lives of so many people turned completely upside down for no reason at all. Being destroyed by the whims of a lunatic.
My company has it's office space in what used to be a hotel. A dozen former offices have been retrofitted to hotel rooms again to facilitate Ukrainian refugees. There are about 6 small families living here now, all mothers and children. And the way the kids clamp their mothers coats when they're walking down the hall is saddening. The journey they must've endured.
I hope that, when the war is over, UA will keep on receiving the support needed to rebuild.

 

[Trueten]

The only realistic war aim is (and always was) to simply capture the rest of the separatist regions and take a pound of flesh for Ukraine going West.
Regime change was always a fantasy in a nation that hates your guts.

That would work if not the Putin's speech inb4 the attack. That speech was colossal. The aim was whole Ukraine. And that is when it was obvious there will be a total invasion and I started packing bagpack two days before the invasion.

Even though Putin could sell Donbass-expansion-only to the mass, he will not be able to sell it to his elites. 'Our Alpha male is no longer an Alpha'.

Also note that during 2021 Russia have been pressing on to the thought that 'there is no Ukrainian state. Its a vassal of an American overlord'.
Its a minor detail not every body to see - Putin cannot sign a peace agreement with Zelenskyi. Only with Biden. How can he achieve that? It doesnt look likely to happen at the current state. Unless NATO is involved. And how to achieve that? Do some air strikes on Poland I assume.

Eh, it looks like all authoritarian regimes suffer of 'alpha-dog positioning'.

 

[Swadius 2.0]

That would work if not the Putin's speech inb4 the attack. That speech was colossal. The aim was whole Ukraine. And that is when it was obvious there will be a total invasion and I started packing bagpack two days before the invasion.

Even though Putin could sell Donbass-expansion-only to the mass, he will not be able to sell it to his elites. 'Our Alpha male is no longer an Alpha'.

Maybe he'll pull a Yeltsin and find himself another Putin to protect him after a resignation. Going to need a lot more bodyguards than Yeltsin though.

 

[Mad Vader]

That would work if not the Putin's speech inb4 the attack. That speech was colossal. The aim was whole Ukraine. And that is when it was obvious there will be a total invasion and I started packing bagpack two days before the invasion.

Even though Putin could sell Donbass-expansion-only to the mass, he will not be able to sell it to his elites. 'Our Alpha male is no longer an Alpha'.

Things change, people change, hairstyles change, interest rates fluctuate and war aims change too. You are right he will lose some prestige, but would it be enough for him to be toppled? [I think yes, but mostly because of the sanctions hitting hard]
All dictators must play strongmen when they are developing a cult of personality. The more backward and traditional society is, the more they have to play this muscular and virile, mentally tough macho man. It's ridiculous if you from a more civilized country, but people in Japan bought his shirtless calendars.

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

Even though Putin could sell Donbass-expansion-only to the mass, he will not be able to sell it to his elites. 'Our Alpha male is no longer an Alpha'.

Well, that ship has sailed, hasn't it. Putin's already lost the oligarchs, sanctions made sure of that. He's about to lose the people as well, sanctions will make sure of that. All he has left then is the military. And rumor has it that he's disappearing many high ranked officials.

He has cracked down so hard on the people with the new legislature, the banning of free press, the inflation rates. Sanctions are now just finishing it off, making sure that closed businesses, empty shelves in supermarkets and online restrictions drive home the point that something bad is going on, no matter what the press tells them.

If he loses the people as well he will only have the military. And how long can that go on?

 

[kurczak]

Things change, people change, hairstyles change, interest rates fluctuate and war aims change too. You are right he will lose some prestige, but would it be enough for him to be toppled? [I think yes, but mostly because of the sanctions hitting hard]
All dictators must play strongmen when they are developing a cult of personality. The more backward and traditional society is, the more they have to play this muscular and virile, mentally tough macho man. It's ridiculous if you from a more civilized country, but people in Japan bought his shirtless calendars.

I never understood the Putin is a tough macho man thing. In those shirtless pics from like 10 years ago, yeah it's a good body for a 60 year old, like statistically speaking, but I don't believe there is a woman (not previously brainwashed by his cult of personality) who is turned on by it. He has low cheekbones, no upper lip, tbh he gives off a gay/asexual vibe. Not saying he is ugly, but he's not some chad alpha or whatever either.

 

[TimIZ]

This guy has the most informative maps, I`ve seen so far.

 

[Sarin]

Well, that ship has sailed, hasn't it. Putin's already lost the oligarchs, sanctions made sure of that. He's about to lose the people as well, sanctions will make sure of that. All he has left then is the military. And rumor has it that he's disappearing many high ranked officials.

He has cracked down so hard on the people with the new legislature, the banning of free press, the inflation rates. Sanctions are now just finishing it off, making sure that closed businesses, empty shelves in supermarkets and online restrictions drive home the point that something bad is going on, no matter what the press tells them.

If he loses the people as well he will only have the military. And how long can that go on?

Unfortunately, the effect of sanctions on people is different than you think. Russian people are quite willing to endure the economic hardships if they're convinced they're for the good cause, and the failures of pro-Western Yeltsin administration and 20 years of Putin's propaganda feeding the narrative about "good old days of USSR" and "Russia vs. west" were quite successful in convincing people of that. Many of those who saw through that emigrated, and the rest doesn't have the will or power to resist.

Right now, the strategy is to cripple Russian recovery from war with sanctions, hope that the defeats in Ukraine will turn the military against Putin, and that eventually, Chinese economic exploitation of Russia's weakness (which is yet incoming) will make the people realize that their time as superpower is over.

 

[Antoine de Saint-Exupéry]

He has low cheekbones, no upper lip, tbh he gives off a gay/asexual vibe.

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

tbh he gives off a gay/asexual vibe.

Well, there have been some other rumors floating the web..

 

[Kentucky 『 ＨＥＩＧＵＩ 』 James]

The more backward and traditional society is, the more they have to play this muscular and virile, mentally tough macho man.

As bizzare as kurczak's comment is, I kind of agree with her. I really don't buy this idea that people like Trump or Putin or even Bolsonaro / Boris are macho strongmen. Trump was extremely effeminate and almost matriarchal, Putin is a softly spoken underhanded manlet who occasionally calls people names, and Boris Johnson's main schtick is that he is a clown. Margaret Thatcher was more of a "strongman" than all of them, and her support base was the ruling class of the percieved most "civilised" country on earth.

Even trump's own hardcore supporters treat him more like a passive spiritual leader than an actual affector of what they want. He's Mao, not Stalin.

 

[Antoine de Saint-Exupéry]

Well, there have been some other rumors floating the web..

associating homosexuality and pedophilia like this is literally just homophobia. consider this a warning to not.

As bizzare as kurczak's comment is, I kind of agree with her.

the bit before the insane bit is correct, yes.

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

associating homosexuality and pedophilia like this is literally just homophobia. consider this a warning to not.

Bite me, I clearly stated OTHER rumors. As in different. You're the one making the association, not me.

 

[Mad Vader]

As bizzare as kurczak's comment is, I kind of agree with her. I really don't buy this idea that people like Trump or Putin or even Bolsonaro / Boris are macho strongmen. Trump was extremely effeminate and almost matriarchal, Putin is a softly spoken underhanded manlet who occasionally calls people names, and Boris Johnson's main schtick is that he is a clown. Margaret Thatcher was more of a "strongman" than all of them, and her support base was the ruling class of the percieved most "civilised" country on earth.

Even trump's own hardcore supporters treat him more like a passive spiritual leader than an actual affector of what they want. He's Mao, not Stalin.

Spoiler: Explain this then, his supporters loved to post this

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

As bizzare as kurczak's comment is, I kind of agree with her. I really don't buy this idea that people like Trump or Putin or even Bolsonaro / Boris are macho strongmen. Trump was extremely effeminate and almost matriarchal, Putin is a softly spoken underhanded manlet who occasionally calls people names, and Boris Johnson's main schtick is that he is a clown. Margaret Thatcher was more of a "strongman" than all of them, and her support base was the ruling class of the percieved most "civilised" country on earth.

Even trump's own hardcore supporters treat him more like a passive spiritual leader than an actual affector of what they want. He's Mao, not Stalin.

Margaret Thatcher stood on a pedestal made out of concrete while Trumps was a cardboard box.
It's the difference between being an authority and acting authorative. One comes from true power, the other is perceived.