Alright, sorry for not posting yesterday, I received bad news early in the day and that ruined my whole day...to say the least.
I'll try to be concise (uh-oh...last time I said that, I posted a WoT).
The death of Soot is something very speculative to talk about. It involves a lot of WIFOM (Wine In Front Of Me - go watch "The Princess Bride" if you don't know the expression). Meaning you can just as eagerly claim Xardob and I wanted Soot out of the way, as well as saying the wolves knew that would come up, hence they did it to frame others. It's a game of endless speculation and doesn't lead anywhere. I think the only people profiting from it are the wolves themselves. Some thoughts:
1) Some of you guys are inconsistent. On one hand you hold Xardob and me to the highest of standards, on the other hand you expect us to play really dumb as wolves. Granted - the last bit could be part of an incredibly elaborate double-bluff - but that's again a lot of WIFOM. Fact is, a whole mob seems to be willing to lynch either Xardob or me today and that would mean that we did a really bad job at being wolves so far. Not that this is to be excluded, but I think it's far-fetched. Would it really be the smartest thing for Xardob as a wolf to shout "Lynch Tuckles, he's 100% wolf" only to be scrutinized today? Same for me. If people like CW know so much about past games, then she'd know also, that as a wolf I usually show far less doubt and my logic is usually far more elaborate than as a villager. Simple, because I can just make **** up and don't have to think twice. Just construct whatever I can from a person's posts.
So if you still think that it's suspicious because I don't know what so many see in Venerable (or because I haven't devoured the Nipple/Calo-quote war), think again. Or don't. It's really up to you.
2) When the day started, Calo and Llandy were very quick to point fingers. It confirmed my assumption, that the wolves killed Soot because he was a) unlynchable and b) as a side-effect, they could be trying to frame me or Xardob for it. While I might have understood if Llandy does so - since she's rather new, she might not have pondered the WIFOM question so much yet - I was quite surprised how unreflected Calodine acted in this:
Calodine said:
Well I ain't gonna say much right now because it's way too damn early for that, but before I forget, that's pretty damn ****ty, Adaham. Tuckles being innocent after all that, AND Soot being murdered...Doesn't change your stance on anything? Well, beyond framing the kill as being intended to make you and Xardob look worse. And not even considering that Soot was offed for any reason beyond being unlynchable. Like, say, who he was gunning for.
First off, it's funny how people are waiting for me to post, but seem entirely content with Calodine posting only this so far (except where he explains his jumping on the bandwagon in a one-liner and votes Sheep again).
He blames me right off the bat for the death of Tuckles AND Soot. Doesn't change my stance on anything? Well, I don't know, but it's not like my entire world has been turned upside down. Also, it didn't change much for Calo, seemingly, as he's still content voting Sheep and putting the blame for everything that went wrong on me. Calo was the one saying he won't budge. I said, me too. He budged. Turned out bad. My fault. It's a rather simplistic view of things and if Calo's intentions are good, I'm seriously surprised how he could subscribe to such logic.
His last sentence about "who he was gunning for" seems like the entrance call for Llandy, who admittedly prepared big parts of her rant over the last days (not that this in itself is a bad thing, no no).
But imagine the following scenario. Let's say, I stepped on a wolf's tail yesterday when pointing out Llandy's interaction with Calodine. Of course, they're not going to admit it, but they'll be well aware that their game might have been slightly too obvious. So at night they confer and draw up a plan for the next day. The more experienced wolves advise the newcomer: "Be more active, don't play the funny-noob too much, it'll draw attention." And instead of eating the guy who stepped on their tail (me), they rather decide to eat another dangerous guy (Soot) and frame me for it. Not very difficult, as Xardob and I have been isolated from the group's opinion already on day 1. Two innocents down, now let's go after the hunters.
So a long story short: Llandy's post reeks of wolfish advice to me. Her packies tipped her off to be active (which is for her an easy way to defend herself against all criticism) and less jokey. Interestingly enough, despite her promise to "keep on joking" because it's "who she is", her attitude towards Calodine has become far less jokey since then, at least I don't recall any Yorkshire-comment since I called her out on it. And the content of her long WoT basically is a long attempt to frame her usual suspects (mostly me) for what went wrong.
It's funny, that even though Calodine was so shocked the result of the night didn't change my view on things, that almost nobody has really changed his/her view of things. The only one to at least try was Xardob when going after Nipple. Also Xardob's analysis of the votes yesterday was the only thing of remotely analytical value of the lynch-result. Rather than indulging in WIFOM-speculation and emotional appeals (Oh Noes Adaham, two innocents down, your fault!), he looked at the cold, hard facts. Doesn't mean I agree that Nipplemelters vote was the most suspicious of the bunch, but I understand where he's coming from and it was worthwhile to prod Nipple about it.
3) There's at least one dumb guy around. Yeah, could be me, true dat. But the problem I'm having is, that while Ativan also followed in similar tracks (albeit more subtle) as Cal and Llandy, so did CW, too (albeit far less subtle). There's no pack of 4 people, so at least one of you guys is a confused villager. Based on experience, I would naturally exclude Calodine and Ativan from that, which would leave either Llandy or CW just being willing helpers. But there's no guarantee for that. And I'm having real trouble seeing CW as anything else than a badly camouflaged wolf that is just staying alive by not posting too much to get attention.
CW: Her post starts off with an almost unbearable appeal to emotion. Then she starts constructing a case out of Soot's comments of the 1st day. The core of it is, that any disagreement between Soot & Xardob and Soot & me was a reason for Xardob and me to eat Soot tonight. CW says "if she was a wolf, she'd eat Soot, too". Well, either you're trying to be witty again by admitting what you did last night, or you're really less experienced than I thought. In my time, I've almost never seen that the wolves eat their enemies at night, it's far too obvious. They usually go for somebody who can't be traced back at all, or they go for their friends and try to blame their enemies for it. Yes, I know...WIFOM...could be the ultimate double-bluff, but that's not even what you're implying. You're just saying, "if I was a wolf, I'd eat my enemy". Well, no, you wouldn't.
CW is - considering the fact she hasn't contributed jack**** to the discussion prior to her long post - awfully sure of what she's saying, which is suspicious to me. She goes on for the whole post to talk about Xardob and me and finally...votes Sheep? Man, voting Sheep has really become the scapegoat of choice for wolves that don't want to risk putting up the first vote. Remember who did the same thing (albeit with less words)?. Right, Calo.
And since Sheep is turning into the Tuckles of day 2 (activity-wise), there's not much to fear from that vote. But at the same time, the wolves are waiting carefully for somebody to break the ice and vote Xardob or me, so a bandwagon can get rolling. Their road is laid out. If Xardob or me can be lynched, they'll gladly take it. The next day they can still go for Sheep (finally). And if they manage to lynch three innocents in three days, they will have won. This also works the other way around (though less conveniently). Lynch Sheep today - be disappointed (everyone can make a mistake) and go for Xardob or me tomorrow - same result.
So for me it boils down to the following group:
Calo
CW
Llandy
Ativan
This is unchanged from yesterday, but I still haven't gotten any really bad vibes from Facemelter. I'd be happy to read more from Suspicious Pilgrim (maybe with less cynism) and to read from Sheep at all.
Currently, Ativan - though the potentially most dangerous - is maybe the least likely member of the pack to me. Calo, CW and Llandy appear to me as the likeliest of combinations. CW has been the outright scummiest, followed by Llandy and Calo himself...and yet I feel almost most sure about Calo than about the other two. For now I'll keep my vote and will decide later who is most deserving.