[Werewolf] Werewolf: Black Death - Daybreak Day 6 - Crypto-flagellants win!
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Spreadsheet of vote/room tracking now updated, see Day 2 tab: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jpHy_8oadtuzT8RG2eZm3HIk3JIF9V6TVZB5MybTho0/edit?usp=sharing
Eternal also had votes on Seff and Wolf, on Day 1. Does Eternal voting for Wolf change your opinion about him?
@Eternal
You've recently voted for Wolf, yet here is the last thing I can see that you say about him?
Before that you immediately park your vote on Wolf, but then straight after switch back to ejnomad following this post:
And as Seff points out, and you clarify in the following post, you've been making cases against Seff quite a bit during Day 1:
Why have you suddenly dropped Seff for Wolf? Even if you think wolves can only kill in their own rooms (which I recall you saying several times, you do think that) that still leaves Seff and Wolf in there, and reading back on your posts it sounds like you've found Seff more suspicious all game, and were much more ambiguous on lynching Wolf.
Why?
In hindsight, you must admit that it's a very good thing nobody was jumping on your ejnomad cases, for example this and this and particularly here in which you switch targets from Seff to ejnomad, complete with expletives and all.
Do you think Seff is now innocent just because he's gotherpes plague? What do you think about Leprechaun's suggestion that Seff is scum and may have been intentionally infected to flush out a healer?
I expect the word "Xardob" will crop up a lot.
I'm also kinda hoping that Moss appears and makes some genuine posts.
Reverend L. Lamb said:
Eternal also had votes on Seff and Wolf, on Day 1. Does Eternal voting for Wolf change your opinion about him?
Reverend L. Lamb said:
@Eternal
You've recently voted for Wolf, yet here is the last thing I can see that you say about him?
Eternal said:
Before that you immediately park your vote on Wolf, but then straight after switch back to ejnomad following this post:
Eternal said:
And as Seff points out, and you clarify in the following post, you've been making cases against Seff quite a bit during Day 1:
Eternal said:
Why have you suddenly dropped Seff for Wolf? Even if you think wolves can only kill in their own rooms (which I recall you saying several times, you do think that) that still leaves Seff and Wolf in there, and reading back on your posts it sounds like you've found Seff more suspicious all game, and were much more ambiguous on lynching Wolf.
Why?
In hindsight, you must admit that it's a very good thing nobody was jumping on your ejnomad cases, for example this and this and particularly here in which you switch targets from Seff to ejnomad, complete with expletives and all.
Do you think Seff is now innocent just because he's got
Seff said:
I expect the word "Xardob" will crop up a lot.
I'm also kinda hoping that Moss appears and makes some genuine posts.
Pharaoh X Llandy said:
Oh, I thought I had answered that - must have not copied and pasted it from my doc into the post.
Anyways:
If you had a good theory that required you to be in the watch position, then that might make for a better option than Ej. Yes, Ej nabbed a wolf, but players do not read everyone equally as well and most are just as prone to error as the next. Being correct about Moose is a huge plus, but it doesn't guarantee being correct about anyone else. He is still my first choice for watch today, followed by you and Snoopy (since the only two people I am most confident about being innocent are lovers and would not make for a good watch choice), but if you had some theory that would allow for you to have a higher chance of catching a wolf, then that could end up being more useful.
But that doesn't matter anymore since I was mistaken about your Watch position theory.
Phonemelter said:
Nope, no theory that gives me a higher chance of catching a wolf. Nothing of the sort. I know ejnomad isn't automatically going to be correct about everyone else just because he was right about Moose, but my chances of nailing scum if I was on Watch would probably be no different.
Just out of curiosity... do you think we have a Converter in play?
Pharaoh X Llandy said:
Verily. In a game this big with room mechanics, I can't see why Adaham wouldn't include one - he even included the "Alignmentmelter Rule" saying to not break the game if your alignment has changed.
Phonemelter said:Verily. In a game this big with room mechanics, I can't see why Adaham wouldn't include one - he even included the "Alignmentmelter Rule" saying to not break the game if your alignment has changed.
Good point.
But we only had one kill last night. That was Soot, and Adaham's narration pretty much categorically confirms that he was killed by wolves.
It follows that since we had only 1 death, we have no idea whether the Converter scored a hit or was blocked.
I can understand why you thought I was innocent on Day 1, and why you were happy to vote me for Watch. That's fine. But if you accept that we have a Converter, and we don't know what happened last night beyond Soot being killed by wolves and Locke and Orj hooking up for some late night townie-aligned orgie (if you do indeed believe their claim) then you should also consider that the lack of a second kill may possibly indicate that a Converter was successful, and that any of the people you believed potentially innocent yesterday may now be scum, including me.
This is why I believe ejnomad is the only genuine choice for Watch tonight. Yes, it could be argued that there's a possibility he was packmates with Moose and chose to abandon his packie early to win the favour of the village... but pretty much nobody is ascribing to that theory, and I also think it very unlikely. Since ejnomad was in the pillory last night, we assume that he was protected because, like the Watch person, he was outside of a room. Therefore, if it's true that the pillory provides protection against attack and conversion, and if he was indeed innocent yesterday when he started the bandwagon on Moose, then he's the only one whose innocence we can be certain of today.
Apart from yours, of course. But you can't be on Watch 2 nights in a row.
Pharaoh X Llandy said:
That is assuming we have one pack with only one kill ability. Could be two packs and the second pack missed, or another wolf was blocked, or there was some % chance that failed, but it is true there would be no way of knowing if a converter was successful or not. I think you are of the belief that if the converter was not successful then there would be a kill, but that isn't always the case - usually they do not have a kill aspect. Reason why I bring this up is because, if you want to speculate on set-ups, it could be like Adaham's previous iteration (or the one before that, forget which) where there were two packs plus a converter, meaning something went wrong for one of the groups.
Hmm, I didn't really think of it that way. Can't be sure that AW or Whoopin are not converters, but part of me feels that Moss might be the guy because he made a weird case about you being a converter and that its method of working is via the plague, which seems like a stretch unless he had some extra knowledge that we didn't have. So I guess that is why I was particularly worried about thinking you would be one, since Moss was in another room and the plague was in the Tavern.
After today's fiasco, I don't think anyone would want that anyways.
I love seeing Eternal reading and then disappearing.
Phonemelter said:
He's not the only one who does it. He's just the one you see doing it most often because he's not 1) using Invisible mode, or 2) logged out of his account and following along as a 'Guest'. Whilst it's not exactly helpful of him to read but not post, especially since there are so many questions for him to answer recently, it's not necessarily indicative of furriness. Remember CW and Fishy.
Not saying he is wolfy for that reason - I'm just trying to actually get a response. Maybe I'm just being too critical of his lurkiness because he usually isn't this way and generally thorough with answering questions - ignoring question from the previous day is not his style.
Phonemelter said:
Try making your font bigger to get his attention
See? Just comainjnh in Ryder to summon him \o/
Whoopin
Grandmaster Knight
Yeah Im busted, been reading on my phone and catching up today during my sons naptime, and now hes asleep.
Was about to really dive into this but Ive lost all motivation due to working too much and now I just decided to buy a six pack for tonight.
So yeah, I got hired by the testing company after passing my exam on Dec 30th. Now Im an Instructor for their MCSE and CCNA classes. Been studying every night to provide a decent class for my students so havent even played any games let alone read Werewolf. Since I just started this job and it wasnt a consideration when accepting the WW invitation I feel like an ass for not following through this week but it has been unavoidable when combined with a 2 year old son.
What Ive been wanting to say is that I do not agree with the Wagon riders possible alignment due to when they joined because I think it has to do more with first 3 voters (ejnomad, Xardob, Llandy) because at that time it wasnt a sure thing and it backfired. Specifically Xardob because he was one of the users in the Tavern overnight which had a death.
For example when I voted for Moose! I was torn to decide to make a competing wagon vs an apparent avalanche, no lynch, or ride the wave and help provide for a lynch result... Facemelter did put it nicely by saying that everyone was kinda undecided and ejnomad happened to provide a middleground.
Also Ive come to realize that anyone I vote for its practically psuedo-protected, and the 3 people Im suspicious of are the first 3 on the Moose! wagon. I will spend some time catching up tonight while I drink and will follow up tomorrow with a proper post and a new perspective.
Was about to really dive into this but Ive lost all motivation due to working too much and now I just decided to buy a six pack for tonight.
So yeah, I got hired by the testing company after passing my exam on Dec 30th. Now Im an Instructor for their MCSE and CCNA classes. Been studying every night to provide a decent class for my students so havent even played any games let alone read Werewolf. Since I just started this job and it wasnt a consideration when accepting the WW invitation I feel like an ass for not following through this week but it has been unavoidable when combined with a 2 year old son.
What Ive been wanting to say is that I do not agree with the Wagon riders possible alignment due to when they joined because I think it has to do more with first 3 voters (ejnomad, Xardob, Llandy) because at that time it wasnt a sure thing and it backfired. Specifically Xardob because he was one of the users in the Tavern overnight which had a death.
For example when I voted for Moose! I was torn to decide to make a competing wagon vs an apparent avalanche, no lynch, or ride the wave and help provide for a lynch result... Facemelter did put it nicely by saying that everyone was kinda undecided and ejnomad happened to provide a middleground.
Also Ive come to realize that anyone I vote for its practically psuedo-protected, and the 3 people Im suspicious of are the first 3 on the Moose! wagon. I will spend some time catching up tonight while I drink and will follow up tomorrow with a proper post and a new perspective.
Whoopin
Grandmaster Knight
Twinkle said:Why do I think he was nailed? -- he was a good contributor and wasn't receiving much heat, people seemed to think he was innocent, I myself found his ideas pretty blue. That seems like a good reason for the Wolves to want to nail him -- take out someone (who is innocent) that everyone thinks is innocent. If they took out someone like me, Llandy, or Whoopin, they wouldn't be doing themselves as big of a favor, because in that case they're taking out people who are already possible day lynch targets. By taking out Sootshade they get the most from their vote.Phonemelter said:@Twinkie
Why do you think he was killed? Any ideas on who did it? Anything weird happen to you last night? You didn't give us your thoughts on packies yesterday - care to do it now?
Xardob post
Any ideas as to who did it? -- As much as can gather is that I'm leaning towards Xardob or Wolf, can't say who really. As you can see in my LoS, I didn't like Xardob's Knife campaign, and for a good portion of the game he made himself scarce. Wolf I've been leaning towards being a wolf since very early on for his weak wagon on Llandy, and the fact that he went scarce for quite a while too. Since those are the only two I strongly suspect in that room, plus the fact that I haven't heard anything new from you, leaves me still rather in the dark.
Nothing weird last night, would have mentioned that if anything had happened.
Packies -- yes I did. But if you want more, I'll try and do so. So we know Moose is a wolf, and now we've got Soot dead, Seff infected, and Snoop cured. Let's say that Wolves can only nail in there room (which is what I suspect) that narrows down possible allies for that room to: Xardob, Velup, and Wolf.
This is what's currently really grinding me as suspicious -- Wolf + Locke, as I've said, I'm convinced Locke's a wolf, and the fact that he/she found Wolf's earlier argument against Llandy compelling, and his "fishing" to be useful, I'm thinking we might have a part team there. In all honesty though, for me to get a good read on a puppet team with Moose!, Locke, and Wolf I'd need to go back and look at Locke+Wolf+Moose! interaction with eachother. But correct me if I'm wrong -- hasn't Moose been ignored by Locke?
I know I've made a case against Locke before, but @Locke in your LoS you have Moose! down as blue, yet leave no reason as to why you have him as such, could you possibly elaborate for me? Actually, could you post a small blurb on why you feel certain ways about everyone, because just throwing up an LoS without elaborating on why everyone is the way they are kinda leaves us in the dark.
~Twinkle, who hath done his deed and is off to bed
Did anyone else notice this?
@Twinkle
Its obvious you conveniently ignored Shatari... do you have a reason to believe hes is not an ally of Moose!? Also since you ask for Lockes LoS on Moose! I now have to lookup your suspicions on Moose! too.
