[Werewolf] Werewolf: Black Death - Daybreak Day 6 - Crypto-flagellants win!

Moss said:

Because it seems like everyone is rushing to grab a room I'll get in on that:

Room: Church

Call me rusty, but what exactly are the rules for rooms/houses? I haven't watched any games that included them. As far as I can tell from what people are saying specials can only use their powers on people in the same room? Or is it that if they use their powers on someone in another room the person who's on watch might see them if the watch player chose them?

As for the Watch, is the watch protected from wolf attacks somehow (which is why they can only be on watch once in a row)?

I guess these are actually questions best answered by the good Lord Hamm himself: Rooms and the Watch, what's the dealio?

Also, devil's advocate here, but why is a no lynch a bad choice? The chances of us killing a wolf by random chance are probably 1/10 or so. Isn't the most likely situation that we just kill an innocent and gain nothing from it because day 1 votes are a crap shoot anyway? Wouldn't it be better to just all vote no lynch and then lynch on day 2 based on what happens during the night?

On a side note, have to run out to the hospital and then set up for a game of D&D I'm hosting, so I'll likely be AWOL for at least the next seven hours or so.

Also, good to be back.

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Moss said:

Jesus Christ on a Crumpet. Dat post count.

Compulsory explanation for non-posting: D&D game ran until late last night, alarm clock didn't go off this morning, just got home from Hospital>Pharmacy>Doctor>Pharmacy. Also there was snow, which as an Australian is still some kind of weird unnatural phenomenon that fills my heart with dread and terror. Coincidentally I've also just learned that the whole 'you can't get chicken pox again if you had it as a kid' thing isn't precisely 100% true. Looking forward to seeing how the 'will this new medication **** with my anti-convulsants' game turns out this time.

I'm going to be perfectly honest here, I read every post, but I don't think half of it managed to actually lodge into my head.

That being said, replies to those who I noticed mentioning me:

Eternal said:

Moss should know by now why we don't no-lynch.

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I'd call this comment suspicious if it didn't seem like a misunderstanding that a few other people are under as well. I'm not a werewolf player. IIRC In the 9 years I've been active on this forum I've been in three games. One was cancelled before it started, one was cancelled on the first day and the last was cancelled on day 3. I did read a whole werewolf game once, but that was years ago. On top of that I've been largely absent from the forum, and off topic in particular for around two or three years at least. One of the largest reasons for that is the diagnosis, treatment and re-diagnosis and re-treatment of a neurological condition that, amongst other things, causes some pretty bad memory issues. As does the medication used to treat it.

So, TL;DR:
Nope, there's no reason I should know that, or really even that there was a consensus amongst all players. Even if it wasn't for the memory issues I don't really have much in the way of experience. Yep, that's me pulling the newbie card I guess.

SootShade said:

Moss's didn't actually include a joke vote, I suppose, but his post was still rather strange to me. A lot of empty talk that might have been the result of him feeling the pressure to say something more concrete than a joke at the point he was entering.

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Just actual questions. It seems like some people actually know how the rooms, etc, work from Whoopin's game or other previous games. I wanted to get caught up to speed.

For what it's worth I'm still not actually convinced by the argument that a day 1 lynch can be more than just a pointless blind shot that's almost certainly going to kill an innocent for no gain whatsoever.

The only way I can see us getting information from a day 1 lynch is if the wolves make an obvious newbie mistake (bandwagoning a vote, overly defending a pack mate that ends up lynched anyway, etc). And I'm under the impression we're not going to see things like that happen because this is an 'all-star' game without any first timers or notoriously bad players. The only way I see it really helping is if we manage to nab a wolf, which would be really great, but just doesn't seem likely. I'm not much of a gambler I guess.

That being said I don't think any of the games I played before were experienced player games, so if there's arguments in favor going over my head then I would actually really like to hear them.

Till then, I guess:
Vote: No Lynch

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Moss said:

Oh right, I meant to comment on the Velpus/Velmu thing as well, seeing as it's the only discussion I'm having any luck following/comprehending.

From what I remember games dragging on and on and on and on and people essentially giving up and losing interest (i.e. morale) was pretty much what killed (I think) two of the games I played in before. And the longer the game goes on for the easier it becomes for people to lurk and for a few people to dominate the discussion as interest slacks. I agree with everything he's saying and the overly flowery prose doesn't really strike me as being all that odd or suspicious. Pretty sure I posted super dramatic posts like that in my earlier games too.

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Moss said:

ejnomad said:

Stopping by for just a second to say...

Moss said:

IIRC In the 9 years I've been active on this forum I've been in three games. One was cancelled before it started, one was cancelled on the first day and the last was cancelled on day 3.

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http://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php/topic,128007.msg3086100.html#msg3086100

You were Prince Humperdinck in the Princess Bride game and almost won it. So he lied everyone. String him up because of course he wants you to forget about the one game he did really well as mafia! 

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Well ****. I can't say this is even close to the most embarrassing thing I've forgotten in the last couple of years, but still. Guess that explains why I was invited to play.

Phonemelter said:

10. Moss - If you do some metagameing, you will find Day 1 yields a lot of information and that night kills will not hand you who the wolves are; analyzing the behavior of other players does that. People are able to accurately “guess” wolves on Day 1 all the time (I use the word “guess” loosely since most of WW is based off educated guesses). It is true in a game like this that there will likely be more information linked to a night kill based off rooms and such, but looking at reasons why people vote for others and the alignment of the lynched players is (generally) better (in my opinion) for finding wolves than via night kill analysis.

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I get that, my concern is that if the wolves here are experienced players then the value of that Day 1 lynch is reduced.
As far as I can tell the benefits of it are:
[list type=decimal]
[*]Wolves get overly nervous if they're being put under pressure by being voted for, acting suspiciously and erratically.
[*]The same as above, but for their pack mates.
[*]Inexperienced wolves won't vote for their pack mates.
[*]Inexperienced wolves might pile on a bandwagon unnecessarily to secure a lynch.
[/list]

With experienced players the chances of the above are reduced, if they're good enough to pretty much nill. If the likelihood of a wolf making mistakes is reduced then the likelihood of the Day 1 lynch being based on anything but luck is reduced and the amount we're liable to learn from that lynch is also reduced. What makes sense as a gospel truth in a standard game may not apply here. Night actions and how people react to them is (in my apparently experienced opinion) going to be of significantly more value. To the point where I'm questioning the value of throwing the wolves a freebie with a luck based day 1 vote.

There have been "all star" games in the past right? How did they go as far as wolves screwing up Day 1 and giving off obvious tells? Am I overestimating the skill of the players?

Shatari said:

@Moss: Even if you're not willing to partake in a lynch, it's highly unlikely that you'll be able to convince 11 of us to waste Day 1's sole chance at getting info. Wasting your vote on something no one else will back is not a pro-town thing to do.

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Don't worry, I'm stupid, but probably not that stupid. No Lynch vote was mostly to promote some discussion. In the unlikely case that my stunning rhetoric and resounding logic aren't enough to convince everyone else of the righteousness of my ways I'll bow to peer pressure and actively vote for someone. No idea who yet, because I've got zilch to go on, but I guess we'll see.

That being said, you can argue just as much that anyone who votes against the majority in any way "I think X is a wolf even though the Village is mostly voting for Y" is wasting their vote and thus not being 'pro-town'. Unless your single vote can swing a tie it's done no harm to the town by you not agreeing with the majority.

Shatari said:

Actually, we have a less than 20-30% chance. The wolves aren't likely to vote for a packy, and they control 20-30% of the vote. However, this gives us some data for Day 2 and beyond since we can analyze who did and didn't vote for whom as roles are revealed.

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How will it help us for future analysis? Unless we get that lucky day 1 wolf lynch any wolf worth their salt will have cast their vote perfectly naturally and no differently than any of the villagers. And as mentioned before, shouldn't we be assuming that the wolves are half way decent? The only two things I can think of that might draw an experienced wolf out are if their pack mate is in danger of lynching or if there's the danger of a no lynch (and thus no free innocent kill for them). By your own argument we've a worse than random chance of hitting a wolf, the most likely scenario is that we end up with nothing at all and throw a free kill to the wolves for our trouble.

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Moss said:

Morning folks. Guess I should work backwards from most recent.

SootShade said:

Xardob said:

Moss is a wolf because he isn't doing anything to find the wolves. I don't have much against his no lynch argument, even though I think it's a bad idea. But the fact that he keeps pushing that idea while ignoring everything else that is happening is very worrying. It's a classic wolf strategy, keep discussing game mechanics without discussing suspects.

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Yeah, that's what I'm also leaning towards, having already caught him based on exactly that in the Princess Bride game. Especially with how he seems to be straight up scared of actual discussion, apparently because of how experienced the other players.

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I've made two posts in the game, that's hardly 'keeps pushing' anything and both of my posts were before any conversation that seemed interesting to me had happened so there wasn't any suspects to discuss. In addition don't forget that not every player in the game isn't in your timezone. I made a post last night and now I'm making another now that I'm awake. Unless you're expecting me to never sleep finding me suspicious based on me not getting involved in conversations that happened whilst I was asleep isn't the best argument. Timezones suck, I'll rarely be able to post when the actual action is happening, please try to keep that in mind. Jumping on me for that would be suspicious if it wasn't for the fact that it's happened every single game that I've played in.

Now onto the meat:

No Lynch Stuff:
I'm officially giving up on the No Lynch concept. Good arguments from Shatari and... someone else? I'm sure there was a second person, but it's not in my notes. I won't further clutter the thread by replying to said convincing arguments with why they're convincing as it seems like everyone but me was already on that page. Clincher was Adaham though, providing concrete evidence that I'm way overestimating the flawless skill of the more experienced players pretty much sinks any argument I had.


The forgetful Elephant in the room:

Moose! said:


Moss - Conveniently forgets about a game and then votes No Lynch. I think he is Wolfy.

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The No Lynch thing is fine, but I feel like it's going to be an issue if I don't address the first part.

Please don't feel like I'm singling you out, this is addressed at everyone.

My mind is full of holes. My boss calls me an hour before each of my work shifts to make sure I haven't forgotten. I regularly forget the names of my friends of known for years half way through conversations. Hell I regularly forget what is being discussed halfway through a conversation. Last week I forgot I'd gotten married. My wife sends me messages throughout the day to remind me to eat and drink because often when she comes home and asks me what I ate for lunch the answer is going to be 'I don't know'.

I'm not asking for pity or any of that ****, but it does need to be put out there. Not only is expecting me to remember something I did four years ago completely unrealistic but throughout the course of this game I will forget things which should seem obvious to everyone else. This is apparently because my brain-stem was apparently wired by genetics most ****ty half-qualified electrician. I know inconsistent behavior is one of the things people hunt for in the game, and I'm not asking for a free pass, but do try to keep this in mind.

Honestly I probably should have discussed this with @Adagod before agreeing to play, as it is pretty unfair on other players. In my defense I often forget that there's anything wrong with me. If people are feeling like it's causing issues for the balance or fairness of the game please feel free to PM me about it. I won't take it personally and I'd rather bow out than throw a wet blanket on what should be a fun event.


Questions for/about me:

Phonemelter said:

A note about Moss - I find it hard to believe he did not read the rules on the first page, which would have explained his questions about them in his first post. Sounds like a wolf "playing dumb" about rules to come off as innocent. Thoughts?

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First post doesn't answer any of my questions about how rooms work. All it states is that you can vote to move around them, not what that means.

Phonemelter said:

@Moss:

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Skipping a response to the first part as it's not a question and as previously stated, I won't fill up the thread any more than I have to by agreeing with people's arguments for No No Lynch. Hope that's okay.

Phonemelter said:

What makes sense as a gospel truth in a standard game may not apply here. Night actions and how people react to them is (in my apparently experienced opinion) going to be of significantly more value. To the point where I'm questioning the value of throwing the wolves a freebie with a luck based day 1 vote.

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Why would "throwing the wolves a freebie" change anything about how people react on the next day? Wouldn't seeing people's reactions to who was lynched during the day also be useful too?

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Not really seeing that being useful. Not like the wolves are going to post "We killed an innocent? GREAT." The obvious reaction to lynching an innocent day 1 is unsurprised disappointment, probably not that hard to fake. Just doesn't seem like a huge boon as far as evidence gathering goes.

Moot point however as that was based on my belief that there was no way the wolves would slip up day 1 with no pressure. As was aptly demonstrated to me though, no matter how experienced the players, that's not the case at all.

Phonemelter said:

Don't worry, I'm stupid, but probably not that stupid. No Lynch vote was mostly to promote some discussion.

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Mostly to prompt discussion, only somewhat because you believe in it? Making discussion over game mechanics rather than players is a very easy, safe way to go about playing and does not help us too much.

What are you thought on people so far?

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The post was because I believed it. The vote was to try to prompt people into replying to me.

Thoughts are coming right up.


WHAT THE HECK IS WITH ALL THIS DAY 1 ROLE CLAIMING?!:

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

Thanks to those who've offered to support my bid for Town Watch 2015 so far, but I no longer want that role. I have some interesting theories to test, and I can't do it if I'm "out" of the action.

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How is this supposed to be read other than "I'm implying I'm an innocent special and being watch means I wouldn't be able to use the power I want to test"? Comes off as a clumsy attempt to deflect heat to me.

Xardob said:

Not yet, Adaham gave me a different goal this time, and spilling my suspicions so early might spoil things a bit.

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How is this supposed to be read other than "I'm implying Adaham gave me a specific role/special role"? No heat to deflect, I have no idea why he said this. Did I miss a change in the meta where everyone just claims to be an innocent special Day 1 or something?

AWdeV said:

I have a knife. SO GIVE ME YOUR MONEY I can use it to stab someone or I can give it to someone else. They may presumably stab someone as well but it can also be used as a defensive stabbing device.

Seeing as I have neither the confidence nor the ego to wade into the village and to whoop someone I suspect of being a villain, I figured I'd bring it up here and now so that we might come up with a plan on how to use it.

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Okay, at least this one is up front. Seems legit, but this also seems like a good move for a villain. Earn yourself major trust points by letting the village pick your victim for you. If AWdeV could confirm that it's a day kill, rather than a night action I'd feel pretty reassured that he's up front though.

Finger of Suspicion:

I don't feel up to doing a LoS at this stage. Notes so far is that their activity and upfront discussion makes Phonemelter and Wolf seem innocent-ish to me. If not innocent their at least doing things that are helpful to the village.

First and only suspect at this point is Llandy.

Reasons:
[list type=decimal]
[*]Day 1 role claim, and a suspiciously vague and unnecessary one at that.
[*]

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

I feel speculating on pack set-ups so early is detrimental to the discussion and to scum-hunting in general.

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No reasoning given and I personally feel like speculating on the game mechanics is always useful. Seems like the kind of thing a Vampire/Non-Wolf evil would say to try to dissuade conversation that might get people thinking about their existence. Don't find her eventual explanation to be convincing, there's a big difference between discussing the possibility and acting based on that discussion to the extent where it helps the villains.
[*]

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

Sounds like you've made a pretty serious slip here and aren't covering it too well. Since you've clearly given this some thought, how many night-kills do you think there SHOULD be?

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Yet another piece of discussion that implies dissuading people from talking about how many villains there are (if there's more than just wolves then of course there's likely to be more than 1 kil la night). Also trying to make the argument that thinking that there will be more than 1 kill a night in a 20 player game is somehow odd or suspicious is silly.
[*]General "I don't have to give an explanation for my odd behaviour" whackery that comes off as "I have no explanation for my odd behaviour".
[/list]

So, with that said:
Vote: Pharoah Llandy

Please note:
Somehow catching up with the thread and writing this post took almost two hours. Have a lot to do today, will post again in an hour or two.

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Moss said:

Warning - while you were typing 7 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

FFS.

Phonemelter said:

I have not read the whole post yet, but I like to promptly reply to things about myself so I can hopefully get a quick response from people before they disappear. I'm also in the process of rereading the thread, saw that after I replied to Twinkie, and figured I'd reply to it ASAP before responding to everything else.

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Not sure if that's standard practice for you, but honestly seems a little overly defensive. Why do you need to defend yourself RIGHT NOW. Why can't their reply to your counter argument wait for a few minutes?

SootShade said:

Moss: Like Xardob said, Moss's inaction goes beyond just discussing no lynch (which I don't think is really suspicious in itself), and rather seems to stem from fear that actually doing something constructive could be harmful to himself or his team. The way he thinks is way too focused on just looking for slip ups rather than considering the whole of anyone's play, and I get the feeling he cares more about avoiding them himself.
  Edit: Still have to read his monster post, might change my view.

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I know I already covered this in the 'monster post', but like I said. Timezones. Can't post about constructive and interesting things if I'm asleep and at the time nothing seemed constructive and interesting. A lot changed whilst I was asleep with all the role claim and meta arguments as far as I'm concerned. Now there actually seems like there's a little meat to chew.

Also if we're going down that road, if I wanted to not be constructive in a wolfy-way I wouldn't have done it by taking a very unpopular stance and drawing attention to myself. I'd have just made half assey posts about other peoples posts and how it was too early to tell if anyone was suspicious, like most of the other players did.

SootShade said:

On another note, I feel like everything Moss brought up, about Llandy is some form of misunderstanding. Not yet sure about the rest that he said.

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Throw me a bone then. What am I misunderstanding? Her role claim seems pretty clear and there doesn't seem to be anything to her 'don't discuss the possible other villains' posts that I missed.

Phonemelter said:

It explains you question of "As far as I can tell from what people are saying specials can only use their powers on people in the same room?" here:

Spoiler

Adaham said:

• As your role PM's stated hopefully clearly (maybe I forgot in some instances), your abilities do only work within the room you're in.

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@Adagod, was that added in an edit? If not then my only defense is that I was rushing to catch up and make a first post before I had to prepare for guests to come over. Not sure why missing that would make me any more wolfy though, either I missed it and I asked about it because I was innocent and wanted to know, or I missed it and I asked about it because I was a villain and wanted to pretend that I wanted to know, doesn't really say much either way.

Phonemelter said:

So the only way you are going to vote for someone is if they "slip up" or the night "reveals" something about them? What if we do not learn anything useful from the night? What would you do then? I know it is a bit of a silly question since chances are that won't happen, but I'm curious as to how you are approaching the game.

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No, as is the grand tradition I'm also going to throw 'fake' votes at people to see how they react to being voted to.

As for legit, I 'think this person is scum and should definitely be hanged' votes. Maybe we have different definitions of slipping up? Slipping up means that as a villain you act in a way that you wouldn't as an innocent because of cracking under pressure or getting greedy and not thinking straight. The night reveals things by giving us who was killed and maybe other things on top of that, which we can then base our discussion on (why target that person, who had it in for them, does the room they were in reveal anything, etc). How else am I supposed to be hunting for villains than by using those? What other evidence is there?

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Moss said:

1. I'd generally consider being too eager to defend oneself a sign of being nervous. I guess other players with experience with you can vouch for whether you act the same as an innocent.

2. Like I said, even if it was there and I missed it it doesn't make a difference. Why would I pretend to not have seen something that obvious if I was a wolf. It's the first dot point on the list. I'd have picked something less obvious to poke at.

3. I'm not sure how this relates to my post at all. I never said that night kills are the only thing you can go on and even when I was arguing for No Lynch I wasn't saying that they're good evidence, just better than the nothing I thought we'd get from day 1 lynch.

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Moss said:

@Llandy

Okay, so that's an explanation at least. Not a great explanation, but hey, it's something.

No clue what the hell you're up to, but it's getting progressively harder to think of you as a wolf with the obvious drawing attention to yourself whacky grandstanding.

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

Fair enough if you don't find the reason "I HAVE DONE THIS AS SCUM MYSELF SO AM WARY OF OTHERS WHO DO IT" to be convincing at all. That's your prerogative.

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I don't. Thus the part of my post directly after the bit you quoted that stated as much.

It's a day 1 vote Llandy. On a day 1 that's likely going to take several weeks. Don't you think you're going a little over the top with your reactions to some mild pressure and suspicion? Or is that the point? Are we getting into WIFOM where you act so outrageously that no one could logically conclude you're a wolf because a wolf would never draw that much attention to themselves or...

Which brings me to my next point:

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

But whatever, vote me if you like. I'm not concerned about being lynched on Day 1, the wolves will want to keep CRAZY DISTRACTION LLANDY around while they try to murder someone who's been helpful and possibly try to steal the weapon that AW admitted to owning

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Just maybe if you're admitting yourself that your behavior is helping the wolves to hide by distracting people from actual wolf hunting, then maybe you should tone it down a notch?

@PhoneMelter

Phonemelter said:

1. I mean, if you thought you were being attacked for something that doesn't make much sense, would you respond to that as soon as you could? I actually have no idea what the meta on myself is, but I can give you an example (though it might not be a good one) of trying to respond to suspicions about myself as soon as I can.

2. *shrug* I've just seen the "whoops, silly me; I must have not read that rule" ruse before - it bother me when I see something that looks along those line.

3. But we do have things to go off of with Day 1 lynches: people's thoughts towards the person lynched, how they reacted when it was going down, potential bandwagon votes, etc.

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1. No, I'd finish reading the posts, then respond. Just seems pointless to leap to the defense before you're finished reading. Means you miss a lot of context and it's not like the game is that time sensitive. Guess it's just a matter of personality difference though.

2. Eh, I'd like to think I'd be more clever than that. I'm not above making mistakes, but if I'm playing as a wolf making a fake post I'd at least put the effort into checking that there wasn't any blindingly stupid mistakes in it.

3. And again, I never said those didn't exist just that they were of vastly reduced value because I was expecting the wolves to be too skilled to be discernible from villagers with such little pressure. And again I've conceded that after being shown that I was overestimating how well people play and how easy it is to hide as a wolf I no longer believe that. I mean you actually just responded to a post where I said this exact same thing "I never said that night kills are the only thing you can go on".

@****ari

Shatari said:

Moss said:

2. Like I said, even if it was there and I missed it it doesn't make a difference. Why would I pretend to not have seen something that obvious if I was a wolf. It's the first dot point on the list. I'd have picked something less obvious to poke at.

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My trouble with this is that the bulk of your discussions have been based around talking about a game mechanic. It comes across like you were preparing yet another game mechanic to discuss, instead of wolf hunting. I agree with your post on Llandy, but I don't see why it took so long for you to start playing.

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In response to bold:
I was making dinner/cooking with my wife (preparing for a Hanukkah dinner tonight, which I'm about to leave for), sleeping, eating breakfast and doing some morning chores/work. It took me so long to start playing because there was a 12 hour or so gap where I wasn't playing which happened to be when everyone else was active and actual interesting things worth discussing started to appear. Before I went to bed the only thing anyone was discussing that was even vaguely interested was Velmu/Velpu's overly flowery language. Can't say interesting things if there's nothing interesting to talk about.

I'm not in the same timezone as other players. I'm going to appear inactive whilst everyone else is discussing things because I'm asleep/at work/busy. That's just how it is.

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Moss said:

Shatari said:

I'm afraid you've completely missed what I was saying. I don't mind that you're late to the thread or that you've been busy. What I mind is that your hunt on Llandy is the first time you've actually played the game. Everything else was filler, and didn't move the game forward.

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I didn't really, I did pretty much cover that in my post:

Moss said:

Before I went to bed the only thing anyone was discussing that was even vaguely interested was Velmu/Velpu's overly flowery language. Can't say interesting things if there's nothing interesting to talk about.

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I know there's more to wolf hunting than sitting back and watching people. But the only things I know how to do other than watch and analyze are pressure votes and pot stirring. I couldn't pressure vote in the joke vote stage, and likely won't be able to till either the day deadline approaches or we lose a lot of players and a single vote actually means something. I mean it worked a bit on Llandy, but she was drugged off her head. And also was Llandy. As for pot stirring, if I'm being honest I have neither the courage nor energy it takes to do that. Besides, too many chefs ruin the broth and we've got pot-stirring specialists already working their magic on staff (Xardob, Wolf/Naradil, possibly Sootshade), hard to feel like I can contribute to that. And if everyone is stirring the pot the game becomes a I giant mess anyway.

Like I said in response to Xardob earlier, if there's others ways of playing the game that I'm not privy to I'd really like to be schooled on them. Because it seems like people are finding my repertoire of wolf hunting skills lacking at the moment.

snoopy-91 said:

Moss is participating during the game more and more. What I don`t like is the way you try to force action within the village. As a special innocent I could never imagine you, because I think that exactly this kind of behaviour could raise to much attention and would be in my eyes not really beneficial. It gives in my eyes to much options to attack you. For an innocent you are a little bit to lazy with your wolf hunting, but that`s just my opinion, but I will wait for it. Maybe with the time it will come. You are writing extensive and answer fluently and confident, but as an innocent I would wish me more distrust against everyone else. Well, that`s what got caught in my mind while overreading.

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Of course I'm participating in the game more and more. It's actually started.

It's a werewolf game, of course I'm distrusting everyone else. I'm just not pot stirring much because I'm not seeing anyone I'd like to agitate and other people are at it already.

Your comment about me being an innocent special strikes me as odd. I've never claimed to be anything other than a regular innocent and that line of thought is just silly WiFoM anyway.

An innocent special would never draw attention to themselves, they'd lurk to be safe. So to make sure they don't get attacked by the villains they'll obviously draw attention to themselves so that they don't appear to be an innocent special! But if that's what an innocent special would do then they should, etc, etc, etc. It's dead end logic. And also makes no sense because what 'role' DOES want to draw attention to themselves?

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Moss said:

Onto actual interesting discussion that people other than me and the people I'm responding to care about:

@Llandy:

You're claiming you want a room to yourself and don't want the watch position because you want to 'test' something. But in the post where you first asked for the watch position you claimed to be a regular, no abilities, innocent:

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

The Wolf said:

So why do you want to be the watchman, Llandy? Early push to prove you're not the werewolf, or is your power only activateable if you're the watchman?

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As for why I want to be a watchman, it's because this is only my 3rd game, I've never had any sort of special role, and this is the closest I've come to having a special role so far. Also, I'm the only person I can be sure of who is innocent, and if I do see something suspicious at Night it will give me something to think about/possibly share with others depending on what I find.

Plus it will mean I don't have to share a room with any of your perverts.

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If you have no special role and thus no special abilities then I simply cannot see what you could possibly be doing during the night, especially what you could be doing that would risk someone else's life from just being in the same room as you. The only grand experiment you can conduct as a no powers innocent is "What will happen if I sit here and do nothing because I have no abilities."

Therefore I see only two possibilities:
[list type=decimal]
[*]You lied about your reason for wanting to be the watch.
[*]You're lying about your reason for wanting to be in a room on your own.
[/list]
One or both of which must be true.

So, for when you wake up, I'd appreciate an answer. Which of the above two is true, or do you have some kind of explanation for how you're going to conduct your grand experiment with no abilities?

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Moss said:

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

Moss said:

An innocent special would never draw attention to themselves, they'd lurk to be safe. So to make sure they don't get attacked by the villains they'll obviously draw attention to themselves so that they don't appear to be an innocent special!

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I was with your post until this bit. Innocent specials lurking is stupid (See also, Dwarfcraft (ComingWinter)) because lurking is inherently suspicious. As well, Adaham has given us a way to punish those pesky lurkers. So whilst they might get away with it in some games, if the majority of the village turn out not to be complete potatoes and actually use the lurker vote as it was intended, this will

1) Not only expose a lurker to cold/potential injury, but also
2) Remove that lurker's abilities from the Night phase, thus making them USELESS

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It was just an example of WIFOM logic Llandy, I don't actually think that. I was specifically referencing Twinkle's implication that innocent specials would be less active to protect themselves.

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

I'll let you know Tomorrow. Meanwhile, Snoopy can crash here, so I'm not entirely alone. I hear she has cookies. And hot chocolate!

Now, you can continue fishing for answers from me which you're not going to get until Day 2. Your lynch vote is already on me so whilst I do appreciate you trying to understand my motives (if you're innocent) and discover where crazy llandy is coming from, I simply can't justify exposing other innocents to danger.

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Sorry Llandy, that's where my lynch vote is going to stay until something more interesting comes along. From where I'm sitting the only things I can imagine your night experiment being are either terribly badly thought through or sinister. Consider it a mark of my respect for you that I'm leaning towards the later rather than the former. And if your plan is sinister rather than stupid I'd much rather it didn't get to happen.

Also you just said that you were lying about why you wanted a room all to your own, and then just went on to repeat the exact same excuse (I want a room to my own so that no innocents get hurt by my experiment) as if nothing had happened. I don't even know what to think about that.

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

PS those lists are very annoying, they break my quotes every time I quote you, though I managed to catch it this time. For the sake of readability, is there any chance I could ask you to just number your points in future instead of using the actual list function?

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Will do.

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Moss said:

@Everyone: This isn't a quote war post, you should probably read it. I'm calling Llandy out on being a villain and presenting my case. It's a big enough call that it should probably be discussed/pulled apart by the rest of the village.​

@Llandy:
So the reason you wanted a room to yourself was that you suspected that wolves could only kill people in the room they're in? And you being alone in a room was somehow going to prove something about this?

That's the least convincing, most incomprehensible excuse I've ever seen. That doesn't work or make sense in any way, shape or form. The complete lack of sense it makes makes it apparent to me that it's a hastily thought up excuse that has no bearing in reality and that you simply wanted to make something up to shake suspicion off yourself with a 'whoops I was mistaken no one pay me any mind'.

Or were you just plain lying completely about actually doing anything and you were just trying to survive to day two for your 'room list' (as if you were the only person who'd notice)? If so then none of your actions make sense, putting yourself in a room on your own doesn't improve your chances over staying in the tavern to an extent that justifies your layers of lies, grandstanding and attention that you drew to yourself to achieve. If you simply wanted to survive another night and nothing more just laying low would have been the obvious and natural course. Especially when taken in light of the fact that any wolf could have just followed you in there under the guise of 'She's up to something and I don't trust her'. Case in point, Shatari.

Which brings us to Snoopy. Your acceptance of Snoopy staying in the same room as you can only be interpreted in one of two ways.
a) You're convinced Snoopy can't be a villain because they arrived late to the game and Adaham probably wouldn't let a villain role potentially be unfulfilled (I don't personally buy into this, especially if they're a minion/lesser villain, but I can see the argument for it).
b) Snoopy being infected with the plague means that they won't effect your room ability.

My Meta sense suggests to me that we have a wolf pack and a separate villain type. Probably a converter (vampire/etc) because that's pretty standard. My assumption is that the converter has something to do with the black death because of Rathyr (a wolf) being killed by the plague (i.e. the villains packs are opposed). Also going off Adaham implying conversion in his OP as has previously been pointed out. Going ultra meta the first trailer features artwork that depicts the victims of the plague walking around murdering people with knives, swords, etc.

My conclusion: You're a villain converter, thematically enough your method of conversion is the plague. You convert from any room or randomly. Your conversions dying after a few days is a method of keeping your pack from growing too large (I'm sure I've seen a similar mechanic in a previous game to keep converters under control). For some reason you need an empty room, or having an empty room benefits you more than one with other people (maybe you do some kind of 'summoning of the plague' that has a chance of being discovered by witnesses).

Your actions don't make sense as an innocent, not the lies upon lies or the inconsistent excuses. You're either playing terribly as an innocent (in which case we lose little by making our day 1 lynch a player that's consistently created a smokescreen of suspicion and drama for the real villains to hide behind) or you're a villain who's giving their game away by trying to hard.

Either way, when the lynch comes I'm pretty convinced I want it coming for you.

Phonemelter said:

@Moss:

This sounds a lot like role-phishing. I understand why you would want to get a further explanation from Llandy, but trying to draw out more information is a bit fishy.

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Role-phishing isn't wrong if the role you suspect is a villain one.


As for the meta discussion about wolves only being able to kill people they're in a room with, I don't think it's the case. With 8 rooms + the watch players will be spread too thin for them to be able to kill safely. Even if the plague wipes out a room a day (I'm assuming it will, thus the plague infested mill we can't stay in) it'll still be quite a while before things will get crowded enough for the wolves to be able to kill without making themselves obvious. That'd disadvantage the wolves too much for the game to be fair.

So, pretty much what ejnomad was saying.

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Moss said:

I disagree. If he passes it on he should definitely keep us all informed.

As Llandy has mentioned there's the threat of a thief, but we can't be sure that role is even in the game, and if they are it's likely a room only ability, so we can just pass it to someone who's bunking on their own or sharing a room with only AWdeV.

Other than that I see little benefit in hiding who the new owner is (it's also a defensive item after all, so it's not like you're putting them at risk of being night killed). And it also puts AWdeV at risk. If he passes it on secretly to a wolf then it's in the wolves best interest to kill him to keep the new owners identity a secret (they'll likely pass it amongst themselves until late game so they can use it to secure the last kill). If it's done out in the open then there's no motive to kill AWdeV and much less threat of the knife disappearing.

What I'd suggest is AWdeV picks one other player that he's confident about and those two bunk up together in the same room passing the knife back and forth each day. Keeps the knife visible, makes the most of its defensive abilities (as the one not currently holding the knife is a good target for a protector role to cover) and means that its use, if and when it is used for a day kill, remains a tool for the villagers.

Now that the knife is a know entity I think it's a good idea to keep it that way rather than having it vanish into a random players hands.

That being said, I'm a little concerned about AWdeV claiming that he's considering killing someone with it with no follow up. If there's someone he's so suspicious of he's considering killing them on day 1 without getting village consensus first, he should also be suspicious enough to be voicing those suspicions. Where's the wolf hunting?



Going to read back and reply to a few things now.

As a side note, for those unaware, this is likely my last day of play for probably a week or so. If anyone wants anything from me you've got a few hours to ask for it. Will try to get on to post as often as I can, but it's almost certain there will be several day long blocks of inactivity coming up.

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Moss said:

I'm sorry, but that makes absolutely 0 sense to me.

If the wolves know who has it they can't 'adapt to avoid being targeted' by doing anything other than sucking up to the knife owner, which would be an obvious tell. Likewise they can't convince them to kill an innocent without the rest of the player base seeing it happen. And it's not like they couldn't try to do that if the knife was secretly held either.

"And I mean really 'if AWdeV passes it to a villain, we'll eventually know?" Yeah. We'll know when it's near the end of the game and they use it to shank someone, pack vote and end the game. Not really going to help us at that point. And that's ignoring the added threat that by passing it between themselves for the whole game up to that point they gain some defense against any vigilante style players.

The room is so that if there's a thief character it can't be stolen without them revealing themselves by going into the same room as AWdeV and his knife buddy. Assumption being that there's a theif and that they can only steal from the room that they're in.

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Moss said:

If he gives away the knife and announces it he's in exactly the same boat as any other of the at least 15 innocent players. There's literally no reason that the wolves would choose to kill him over someone else once the knife is gone. :/

That and there's the extremely obvious risk of him giving it to a villain. If he does so in secret then they'll immediately kill him so that no one knows who has the knife and it'll be kept out of play till the end of the game. If he does so openly the worst the villain can do is use it against the consensus of the village to kill an innocent and then get lynched immediately.

I'm really not seeing this threat that you and Xardob are pulling out with the 'the villains will be able to manipulate it if they know where it is'. They can't do anything that the rest of the village can't do and there's more of us than them. If we treat it like a second lynch then there's absolutely nothing changed about how the game will be played except a potentially dangerous item will be kept out of the hands of the villains and we'll have a useful tool should we ever need it.

Xardob said:

You're thinking about this game in absolutes, and it doesn't really work that way. For example, if I'm a wolf and want to influence AWdeV's use of the knife, I don't need to suck up to him or make him trust me. I just need to point him in the right direction. If I don't like the direction he's going, I'd try to discredit him, or make him pass the knife on, preferably to an innocent I can better manipulate. Hell, the smarter decision would be to campaign for the use of the knife to be decided by a majority vote. Or maybe do as Shatari did and suggest the knife stays a harmless protection item. There are several pro village arguments I could use to convince this is a good idea. All of them flawed.

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And somehow no one is going to be paying any attention to players trying to manipulate the guy with the knife, because clearly it's something unimportant that people wouldn't be interested in. /sarcasm

Not only do nearly all of your arguments apply to a regular old lynch vote a villain can still 'point in the right direction' regardless of whether the villain knows who has the knife at the time. And I don't see how trying to discredit or force the knife wielder to pass it on is going to not be noticed by other players. The rest of your post just looks like blanket statements with no justifications for why they're so. "It's bad for the knife to be used as voted by the village, it's bad that the knife not be used arbitrarily on an individuals hunch. Just trust me, it's bad!" I'm not convinced.



And with that I'm dropping out.

Good luck with the game everyone, see you in a few days hopefully, if not sometime after the 25th.

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Moss said:

1. Get knife
2. Magically convince a majority of the players to let you use it on an innocent
3. Stab them and not be under any suspicion

Yes. This plan makes sense, sounds plausible and isn't in any way shape or form stupid. /dripping with blatant sarcasm

That and how is that any different at all than the daily lynch vote? If you're a bad ass enough wolf to convince the whole village to lynch an innocent (in a situation where a No Lynch/No Stab is not only permissible but the default) and then walk away from it unscathed with no suspicion on you then damn, we might as well pack up this game right now because these hypothetical wolves are some God Tier players.

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Moss said:

I'm really sorry for not getting in touch sooner everyone.

Things at home have been more hectic than expected. The airline lost both my wife's and my baggage. Because of that I had to endure a couple of days with my fantastic, wonderful and not at all crazy (why would you even suggest that?) in-laws and then spend another day traveling between cities by public transport because my family couldn't wait for my baggage to arrive and had to leave before me.

Last few days have been pretty exhausting. Grandfather got an infection from his heart surgery and isn't doing well with recovery and is in fairly constant need of care. As is my mum who is juggling taking care of him and my godmother who is terminally ill. On top of that a hobby programming project I was working on got up-sold to some people by a friend which means I've had to rush finishing it to a presentable level to show before I leave the country, could be a big break, foot in the door, etc.

Coming up, because of perfectly reasonable reasons that have nothing to do with my mother in law (why would you think a crazy thing like that?) I now have one more day here to get a hell of a lot of things done before I unexpectedly need to drive north for three days, where I will definitely not have internet.

And then after that I'm being invited to go into the mountains to observe wild horses (part of my programming project and something I've always wanted to do) and stay in some heritage listed cabins then go camping with old friends I've not seen for years. Again no internet. I could say no to both, but as much as I feel like I'm letting you guys down they're once in a life time opportunities and life < internet.

TL;DR:
Life. Life never changes. Also I'll likely not be playing until mid January, at which point I'll still need to catch up.

If @Adaham wants to replace me I'm perfectly fine with that, if not I'll try to read up when I can and keep everyone up to date on when I can start playing again. Sorry again folks.

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Moss said:

Nothing personal Llandy, it's just how I roll. As far as I'm concerned Werewolf is all about taking the jack all evidence that's given to you and making up the best explanation you can for what the hell is going on based on it. Personally I look at all the people who play werewolf and talk about 'gut feelings' and brag about lucky day one guesses of wolves and see nothing but people deluding themselves into mistaking luck for skill in a game where skill is minimized intentionally as a game mechanic past a fairly rudimentary level. No offense intended to any of the other players, though I suppose it'd be fair if some was taken.

I'll be the first to admit that my theory about why you were acting suspicious was pure speculation, that's how I believe the game is played, but that doesn't change the fact that I was speculating wildly based on the fact that I found you suspicious based on what you'd said and done.

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

The Wolf said:

Heads up, I might be without internet over Christmas. I'm also going to be busy today and tomorrow with getting home. Adaham knows, but I might as well let you know too. I'll be back first thing in January. Try not to kill me before I'm back.

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"I am busy today therefore unable to post further. Tomorrow I will be going home and when I get there I may have no internet, so I will be back the first thing in January."

Now, if Wolf-boy did manage to get to an internet to read up a bit on the thread, that's great, I'm glad he's staying informed. And if you want to use a lurker vote on him, then that's fine. I don't agree with it but how people use their lurker votes is their own prerogative.

The thing I find most suspicious is his "try not to kill me before I'm back" statement. Yet another pre-emptive defence, as if he knows how scummy he's been and is preparing himself of his potential fall so he can appear at the last minute and use the bucketload of defences he's trotted out over the course of the game as excellent reasons why we shouldn't lynch him (his name, his avatar, the way he's going to soak up blame if someone dies in his room (???) and now this).

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Speaking of works of speculative fiction, pot, kettle, black.

You just constructed an elaborate story where instead of being too busy to play an internet game in one of the busiest holiday periods of the year for most people he's actually secretly lurking, chose his forum name and avatar specifically so he could use it to deflect accusations and is making comments that although obviously meant as a joke (like he's the first person to ever say 'don't lynch me whilst I'm gone') as a crafty defense.

Not only is your post complete bunk, hypocritical and absurd it's also a clear push for a lynch on the person currently receiving suspicion, who's unable to defend himself as he's absent, a point you spend a great deal of your post trying to brush under the table as if it didn't matter.

As a side note:

Pharaoh X Llandy said:

I'm a wolf. AW gives me the knife. Instead of killing him I let him announce he's given it to me. I play dumb "hey guise I have a knife, who should I stab with it? ^_^" scum and let them "direct" me into stabbing an innocent. "Oops, well it was the group consensus, I'm not to blame " People blame each other even more for telling me to stab that innocent. All the while I'm clearly not scum because if I was scum, I would have killed AW right away instead of letting him live.

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So now that AWdev has done exactly what you said a wolf would do with the knife, why no jumping on him for it?


Last post before the internet-less journey begins. Sorry again for the hiatus. Will be sans internet for three days, maybe more depending on how my Grandfather's check up of his recovery goes. Or less if the whole trip ends up getting canceled because he's too sick to be left with only one carer for that time. Will let you know if things change. Will try to check in as soon as I can regardless.

Just as a short disclaimer, making this post without any context between page 35 and the last two. No idea if Velmu was actually somehow being suspicious in a fashion that actually warranted stabbing. Or any other things I may have missed.

Happy New Year if I don't catch you all before that.

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Moss said:

Quick expansion on my first bit, by 'what you'd said and done' I was specifically referring to the repeated lying, erratic behavior, and 'nothing suspicious here, just whacky Llandy being whacky' cop out when pressed for answers. Maybe you did it because you're scum, maybe because of other reasons, but it's still the most suspicious behaviour I've seen so far and you don't seem to have improved with your recent posts.

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