[Werewolf] Crusade on Castle Mengelberg, (Werewolves Win!)
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ComingWinter
Baron
Well, this is certainly not good news. Not only do the wolves know who each other are, they have now talked and formed a plan for Day 2. However as we have lost the battle, we have not lost the war.
The dead have their stories to say as well. And I think Sootshade's story is pretty intriguing.
It starts here.
This in my opinion, is where things start to get interesting. Basically, Sootshade calls Xardob out:
Man, such a hard job keeping every single possible avenue of attack open without actually offending anyone enough for them to question you.
If I was a wolf, I'd munch Sootshade as well. He basically built a very convincing case against Xardob and tied Sheep to it as well. The fact that he had voted for Sheep but heavily suspected Xardob before his death is interesting as well. He never did suspect Tuckles;
Suspicious throws in a half-arsed attack here. It doesn't seem like he argues with him anywhere else, at least not that I could find.
Adaham's LoS on Sootshade:
Although Sootshade was hesitant to vote Tuckles, I don't think his main point was because Xardob was for lynching Tuckles, and he didn't trust Xardob - I think it was he had a much better case against Sheep and it also heavily implicated Xardob. The first part confuses me the most, because Xardob's LoS was very noncommittal and Sootshade built an excellent case against him.
This parts really waves a red flag:
Because that's the last thing Soot had been doing, especially when he went through the Face/Calodine mess and turned it into something somewhat logical.
I honestly have no words for this. This is the biggest pile of bull**** I've ever come across. The case against Sheep is air tight and Adaham basically sits here and plays oblivious.
I think Tuckles was a distraction. Being the fact the Tuckles played rather poorly and the wolves used it to their advantage to get a lynch on an innocent and a Night. Not only that, they wanted to use it as a smokescreen to hide who they really want to go after. I think the real threat was Sootshade, basically because he tied Xardob and Sheep together. Adaham is heavily implicated with
I have a feeling that Tuckles' lynch holds more clues as well. Especially since Xardob, Adaham and Sheep all had a hand in it.
Unvote; Vote: Venerable Sheep
The dead have their stories to say as well. And I think Sootshade's story is pretty intriguing.
It starts here.
SootShade said:
SootShade said:
This in my opinion, is where things start to get interesting. Basically, Sootshade calls Xardob out:
Man, such a hard job keeping every single possible avenue of attack open without actually offending anyone enough for them to question you.
SootShade said:
If I was a wolf, I'd munch Sootshade as well. He basically built a very convincing case against Xardob and tied Sheep to it as well. The fact that he had voted for Sheep but heavily suspected Xardob before his death is interesting as well. He never did suspect Tuckles;
SootShade said:
Suspicious throws in a half-arsed attack here. It doesn't seem like he argues with him anywhere else, at least not that I could find.
Adaham's LoS on Sootshade:
Adaham said:
Although Sootshade was hesitant to vote Tuckles, I don't think his main point was because Xardob was for lynching Tuckles, and he didn't trust Xardob - I think it was he had a much better case against Sheep and it also heavily implicated Xardob. The first part confuses me the most, because Xardob's LoS was very noncommittal and Sootshade built an excellent case against him.
This parts really waves a red flag:
Adaham said:
Because that's the last thing Soot had been doing, especially when he went through the Face/Calodine mess and turned it into something somewhat logical.
Adaham said:
I honestly have no words for this. This is the biggest pile of bull**** I've ever come across. The case against Sheep is air tight and Adaham basically sits here and plays oblivious.
I think Tuckles was a distraction. Being the fact the Tuckles played rather poorly and the wolves used it to their advantage to get a lynch on an innocent and a Night. Not only that, they wanted to use it as a smokescreen to hide who they really want to go after. I think the real threat was Sootshade, basically because he tied Xardob and Sheep together. Adaham is heavily implicated with
Adaham said:
I have a feeling that Tuckles' lynch holds more clues as well. Especially since Xardob, Adaham and Sheep all had a hand in it.
Unvote; Vote: Venerable Sheep
I do not have much time right now to make a post, but I will quickly respond to two things:
I knew this was going to come up. I was just narrowing it down to two because I was hoping more people would follow suit because there were about 12 hours left and we needed to get rolling on talking about who to vote off the island; it wasn't a hard "I'm only going to vote for these two guys," because obviously I had previously stated my suspicions on Tuckles, but we needed to start moving.
How would my switching of a vote to Sheep "sealed the lynch?" Adaham wasn't going to switch his vote, you weren't going to switch your vote, and we were only going to get about 5 votes on Sheep otherwise because of people being inactive. I didn't immediately vote for Sheep because I wanted more discussion because end-of-day voting can help in trying to identify wolves. If anything, your insistence on Tuckles screwed over any chance for us to lynch Sheep.
Pharaoh Llandy said:
I knew this was going to come up. I was just narrowing it down to two because I was hoping more people would follow suit because there were about 12 hours left and we needed to get rolling on talking about who to vote off the island; it wasn't a hard "I'm only going to vote for these two guys," because obviously I had previously stated my suspicions on Tuckles, but we needed to start moving.
Xardob said:
How would my switching of a vote to Sheep "sealed the lynch?" Adaham wasn't going to switch his vote, you weren't going to switch your vote, and we were only going to get about 5 votes on Sheep otherwise because of people being inactive. I didn't immediately vote for Sheep because I wanted more discussion because end-of-day voting can help in trying to identify wolves. If anything, your insistence on Tuckles screwed over any chance for us to lynch Sheep.
I guess the problem is that was the last post you had against Sheep. You then spent quite a bit of time arguing with Adaham about other things. Maybe I'm having unrealistic expectations that everyone would be as insistent as me about their suspects. Maybe the fact that you weren't online during the final stages of the day is giving me the wrong impression about things.Ativan said:
If you had switched your vote at that point, Sheep would then have 4 votes and Tuckles only one. Really, in that scenario Tuckles lynch wouldn't have gone anywhere, no matter how much I pushed. The choice would've been between Sheep and a no lynch. Your argument that neither me or Adaham would switch our votes doesn't really hold. You could say the same thing about Cal, but he switched anyway, and Adaham hadn't even voted at the time. Same problem with your claim about the inactives. You couldn't possible know Pilgrim and Tuckles wouldn't join the Sheep wagon. Even Llandy still had to vote at that point.Nipplemelter said:
Xardob said:
Uh... feel like I'm stating the blatantly obvious here... and I know that this is aimed at Ativan but it's relevant for a few of us. 12am EST is 5, 6 or 7am in Europe. I would really struggle to stay up during the last 10 hours or so of the Day, even if the lynching deadlines fell on a weekend.
If all the last-minute voting action is going to take place during this time, then some of us are going to have the natural handicap of being in bed at that hour. If the deadline was, say 12pm GMT, the players in NA or other time zones (do we have any in other time zones?) would also be at a slightly unfair advantage.
Day 2: Vote Count 1
Venerable F. Sheep (3) - (Calodine, Ativan, ComingWinter)
Nipplemelter (1) - (Xardob)
Adaham (0) - ()
Suspicious Pilgrim (0) - ()
Calodine (0) - ()
ComingWinter (0) - ()
Ativan (0) - ()
Xardob (0) - ()
Pharaoh Llandy (0) - ()
Not Voting (5) (Pharaoh Llandy, Suspicious Pilgrim, Adaham, Venerable F. Sheep, Nipplemelter)
With 9 Alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
Day 2 Deadline is October 5th at 11:59PM EST.
I believe you guys (but neither gal) took care of that with the death of Tuckles.
Venerable F. Sheep (3) - (Calodine, Ativan, ComingWinter)
Nipplemelter (1) - (Xardob)
Adaham (0) - ()
Suspicious Pilgrim (0) - ()
Calodine (0) - ()
ComingWinter (0) - ()
Ativan (0) - ()
Xardob (0) - ()
Pharaoh Llandy (0) - ()
Not Voting (5) (Pharaoh Llandy, Suspicious Pilgrim, Adaham, Venerable F. Sheep, Nipplemelter)
With 9 Alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
Day 2 Deadline is October 5th at 11:59PM EST.
Pharaoh Llandy said:
I believe you guys (but neither gal) took care of that with the death of Tuckles.
Xardob said:
Okay. It sounded for a moment like you were. And I could see that blame being used against anybody else who wasn't around (or won't be around) for later stages of each Day.
ejnomad said:
Heh.
Xardob said:
Fair enough; hard to tell what would have happened. Either way, my point was to have discussion continue and see where votes fell instead of just having a bandwagon happen on Sheep to get a better idea of where everyone's' thoughts were sitting. In hindsight maybe a simple unvote would have been better for that, but no matter which way it was going to play out, someone I suspected was going to be lynched, which is why I wasn't pushy one way or the other between Tuckles or Sheep earlier (since it was hard for me to determine who I thought was more suspicious).
Before somebody jumps at me for not keeping my promise, I had some family business to attend to and didn't get around to posting. I have read, though, all those WoTs...some of them (I'm looking at you Llandy) sprung up so fast, it almost seemed as if they were prepared last night 
I'll be spending most of tomorrow working at my computer and I'll be sure to drop in a line or two.
In short, the only thing confusing me right now, is that there's more people directing this thing in the wrong direction than there is wolves...which worries me. Anyhow, no point in mention something short when I don't have time now to back it up.
I'll be spending most of tomorrow working at my computer and I'll be sure to drop in a line or two.
In short, the only thing confusing me right now, is that there's more people directing this thing in the wrong direction than there is wolves...which worries me. Anyhow, no point in mention something short when I don't have time now to back it up.
Ooh, I got mentioned!
I've spent the last 4 days or so preparing most of my thoughts about Tuckles being lynched, inside my head and by making some notes. I also re-read through the entire thread again (granted, I skipped the whole Nipple/Cal confusion and just went straight to the summary).
If that makes me suspicious to you, then fine. To me, it makes me dedicated. I did say, in one of my very last posts before deadline, that I was going to give this game my full effort. Fault me for being quick off the mark if you like, but I don't think you can fault me for effort.
For the record, I wouldn't expect anyone (except Pilgrim, who made yet another empty promise...) to post something as in-depth as I did so soon, quite simply because I've given up all of my writing time so that I can focus on this game. I sure as hell can't chip into work time (unless at lunch) or my hobby times, so I made the choice to stop writing so I could dedicate my time to playing.
And yes, I know, tongue in cheek winking smiley designed as a light-hearted prod towards my walls of text, with the intent of making me go all defensive again and possibly put some suspicion on me. I look suspicious if I do reply to what appears to be nothing more than a humourous goad, and suspicious if I don't. But at least whilst I'm replying I'm generating discussion instead of echoing Tuckles' mistake of barely reacting to any suspicion at all.
I look forward to hearing more from you tomorrow
Adaham said:Before somebody jumps at me for not keeping my promise, I had some family business to attend to and didn't get around to posting. I have read, though, all those WoTs...some of them (I'm looking at you Llandy) sprung up so fast, it almost seemed as if they were prepared last night
I've spent the last 4 days or so preparing most of my thoughts about Tuckles being lynched, inside my head and by making some notes. I also re-read through the entire thread again (granted, I skipped the whole Nipple/Cal confusion and just went straight to the summary).
If that makes me suspicious to you, then fine. To me, it makes me dedicated. I did say, in one of my very last posts before deadline, that I was going to give this game my full effort. Fault me for being quick off the mark if you like, but I don't think you can fault me for effort.
For the record, I wouldn't expect anyone (except Pilgrim, who made yet another empty promise...) to post something as in-depth as I did so soon, quite simply because I've given up all of my writing time so that I can focus on this game. I sure as hell can't chip into work time (unless at lunch) or my hobby times, so I made the choice to stop writing so I could dedicate my time to playing.
And yes, I know, tongue in cheek winking smiley designed as a light-hearted prod towards my walls of text, with the intent of making me go all defensive again and possibly put some suspicion on me. I look suspicious if I do reply to what appears to be nothing more than a humourous goad, and suspicious if I don't. But at least whilst I'm replying I'm generating discussion instead of echoing Tuckles' mistake of barely reacting to any suspicion at all.
I look forward to hearing more from you tomorrow
Slow day huh? Guys? GUYS?
I've been here for 3 hours. I tried talking to myself but I'm not a very good conversationalist 
You could try posting your monologues here, we'll try our best to make it work.
By the way, I always become sad when I see Sheep being active but absent from this thread
By the way, I always become sad when I see Sheep being active but absent from this thread
I've been in class all day and the forums were having issues last night when I wanted to post, so I haven't been able to add anything yet. I'm going to aim for something tonight.
My advice is to post whatever you're going to say into a text document first, because I have been getting Cloudflare/timeout errors whilst idling in the post-editor. It's already timed me out on three PMs, though I don't know if it will be the same for forum posts. Better to err on the side of caution though, there's no point risking everything that you write.
Ugh, turns out I have less time that I would like for making a proper post. Anyways, some thoughts after skimming the thread again to see if anything sticks out to me (unfortunately in not the detail I like to):
This week is going to be busy for me, but hopefully I will be able to make more specific remarks and have less tunnel-vision than I have here.
- Soot's death does not surprise me much, considering how vocal and active in the hunt he was. As Adaham says, he seemed unlynchable and therefore a good target to go for. I've been trying to think of potential suspects in this, but there seems to be no good way of doing so. On one hand, it would be beneficial for one of the more weighty players (i.e. Xardob, Adaham) to get rid of a player such as Soot who would pose a threat in "controlling the village," so to say, especially since he was at odds with them a few times. On the other hand, that would seem too obvious of a choice, making him a good target for framing those players (unless he was getting close to picking up a scent). While I think this is too up in the air, I'm leaning more towards the "obvious choice" theory because it wouldn't make sense for someone who was on Soot's "good side" or even neutral to get rid of him because he would be a powerful ally to have.
- I'm somewhat unsettled by the fact that Xardob and Adaham admitted to not bothering to read Cado and I's ****storm (or even Soot's summary of it). Yes, it was fruitless, but normally seasoned wolf-hunters such as them would at least give it a shot to see if there is anything they could find in it that is potentially wolfy, especially since Adaham said he thinks at least one of Cado or I is a wolf due to it. He even seemed to miss some questions I had for him in the LoS I posted at the time, making me think he is less concerned about paying as close attention as usual for whatever reason.
- More on Adaham: His LoS still is not sitting well with me. More often than not my thoughts on suspects lie closely to those of his, but something with it feels wrong to me. Probably because (as he admits) he hasn't been following people closely enough (regarding his thoughts on Sheep), causing him to get things wrong in his analysis (I never said I think Sheep is less scummy than Cado, unless you were talking about someone else in the blurb on me). Additionally, his "defense" of Xardob (in the sense that he feels Xardob is the person he trusts the most at the time) is not convincing to me. For you he showed that he was scumhunting, but it seems like you are the only one to feel that way. Granted, he did make a nice post on Tuckles, but that was after your thoughts on him. Otherwise, all he had at the time was a LoS and "lets lynch Tuckles." None of this is inherently wolfy, but the combination of it all bugs me. Either Adaham is a wolf trying to be careful, or his time off has made him rusty.
- Suspicious Pilgrim's post here and his recovery also makes me feel uneasy (though he has made me feel that way all game). His reluctance to vote for Tuckles could be that of an innocent who honestly doesn't feel like Tuckles was a wolf, but he did make an analysis of Tuckles earlier on that would suggest otherwise. Unwilling to put the nail in the coffin during crunch time and nearly causing a no-lynch (which Soot would have prevented, but that doesn't really matter) under those circumstances makes me think Pilgrim is a wolf who didn't want to have any blood on his hands knowing Tuckles would come out innocent.
- Even though I have been complaining about Xardob here a little bit, I think he'd have to be stupid to push for a lynch on Tuckles the way he did if he was a wolf. One potential scenario is that he did so in a desperate attempt to swing voting away from Sheep (a packie of his) to keep him alive for another day in hopes that he could convince people to go a different direction today. I hate speculating like that, and the chances of such a thing happening are probably low, so I am not going put much weight on it, but the tunnelvision on Tuckles strikes me as unusual behavior.
This week is going to be busy for me, but hopefully I will be able to make more specific remarks and have less tunnel-vision than I have here.
Alright, sorry for not posting yesterday, I received bad news early in the day and that ruined my whole day...to say the least.
I'll try to be concise (uh-oh...last time I said that, I posted a WoT).
The death of Soot is something very speculative to talk about. It involves a lot of WIFOM (Wine In Front Of Me - go watch "The Princess Bride" if you don't know the expression). Meaning you can just as eagerly claim Xardob and I wanted Soot out of the way, as well as saying the wolves knew that would come up, hence they did it to frame others. It's a game of endless speculation and doesn't lead anywhere. I think the only people profiting from it are the wolves themselves. Some thoughts:
1) Some of you guys are inconsistent. On one hand you hold Xardob and me to the highest of standards, on the other hand you expect us to play really dumb as wolves. Granted - the last bit could be part of an incredibly elaborate double-bluff - but that's again a lot of WIFOM. Fact is, a whole mob seems to be willing to lynch either Xardob or me today and that would mean that we did a really bad job at being wolves so far. Not that this is to be excluded, but I think it's far-fetched. Would it really be the smartest thing for Xardob as a wolf to shout "Lynch Tuckles, he's 100% wolf" only to be scrutinized today? Same for me. If people like CW know so much about past games, then she'd know also, that as a wolf I usually show far less doubt and my logic is usually far more elaborate than as a villager. Simple, because I can just make **** up and don't have to think twice. Just construct whatever I can from a person's posts.
So if you still think that it's suspicious because I don't know what so many see in Venerable (or because I haven't devoured the Nipple/Calo-quote war), think again. Or don't. It's really up to you.
2) When the day started, Calo and Llandy were very quick to point fingers. It confirmed my assumption, that the wolves killed Soot because he was a) unlynchable and b) as a side-effect, they could be trying to frame me or Xardob for it. While I might have understood if Llandy does so - since she's rather new, she might not have pondered the WIFOM question so much yet - I was quite surprised how unreflected Calodine acted in this:
First off, it's funny how people are waiting for me to post, but seem entirely content with Calodine posting only this so far (except where he explains his jumping on the bandwagon in a one-liner and votes Sheep again).
He blames me right off the bat for the death of Tuckles AND Soot. Doesn't change my stance on anything? Well, I don't know, but it's not like my entire world has been turned upside down. Also, it didn't change much for Calo, seemingly, as he's still content voting Sheep and putting the blame for everything that went wrong on me. Calo was the one saying he won't budge. I said, me too. He budged. Turned out bad. My fault. It's a rather simplistic view of things and if Calo's intentions are good, I'm seriously surprised how he could subscribe to such logic.
His last sentence about "who he was gunning for" seems like the entrance call for Llandy, who admittedly prepared big parts of her rant over the last days (not that this in itself is a bad thing, no no).
But imagine the following scenario. Let's say, I stepped on a wolf's tail yesterday when pointing out Llandy's interaction with Calodine. Of course, they're not going to admit it, but they'll be well aware that their game might have been slightly too obvious. So at night they confer and draw up a plan for the next day. The more experienced wolves advise the newcomer: "Be more active, don't play the funny-noob too much, it'll draw attention." And instead of eating the guy who stepped on their tail (me), they rather decide to eat another dangerous guy (Soot) and frame me for it. Not very difficult, as Xardob and I have been isolated from the group's opinion already on day 1. Two innocents down, now let's go after the hunters.
So a long story short: Llandy's post reeks of wolfish advice to me. Her packies tipped her off to be active (which is for her an easy way to defend herself against all criticism) and less jokey. Interestingly enough, despite her promise to "keep on joking" because it's "who she is", her attitude towards Calodine has become far less jokey since then, at least I don't recall any Yorkshire-comment since I called her out on it. And the content of her long WoT basically is a long attempt to frame her usual suspects (mostly me) for what went wrong.
It's funny, that even though Calodine was so shocked the result of the night didn't change my view on things, that almost nobody has really changed his/her view of things. The only one to at least try was Xardob when going after Nipple. Also Xardob's analysis of the votes yesterday was the only thing of remotely analytical value of the lynch-result. Rather than indulging in WIFOM-speculation and emotional appeals (Oh Noes Adaham, two innocents down, your fault!), he looked at the cold, hard facts. Doesn't mean I agree that Nipplemelters vote was the most suspicious of the bunch, but I understand where he's coming from and it was worthwhile to prod Nipple about it.
3) There's at least one dumb guy around. Yeah, could be me, true dat. But the problem I'm having is, that while Ativan also followed in similar tracks (albeit more subtle) as Cal and Llandy, so did CW, too (albeit far less subtle). There's no pack of 4 people, so at least one of you guys is a confused villager. Based on experience, I would naturally exclude Calodine and Ativan from that, which would leave either Llandy or CW just being willing helpers. But there's no guarantee for that. And I'm having real trouble seeing CW as anything else than a badly camouflaged wolf that is just staying alive by not posting too much to get attention.
CW: Her post starts off with an almost unbearable appeal to emotion. Then she starts constructing a case out of Soot's comments of the 1st day. The core of it is, that any disagreement between Soot & Xardob and Soot & me was a reason for Xardob and me to eat Soot tonight. CW says "if she was a wolf, she'd eat Soot, too". Well, either you're trying to be witty again by admitting what you did last night, or you're really less experienced than I thought. In my time, I've almost never seen that the wolves eat their enemies at night, it's far too obvious. They usually go for somebody who can't be traced back at all, or they go for their friends and try to blame their enemies for it. Yes, I know...WIFOM...could be the ultimate double-bluff, but that's not even what you're implying. You're just saying, "if I was a wolf, I'd eat my enemy". Well, no, you wouldn't.
CW is - considering the fact she hasn't contributed jack**** to the discussion prior to her long post - awfully sure of what she's saying, which is suspicious to me. She goes on for the whole post to talk about Xardob and me and finally...votes Sheep? Man, voting Sheep has really become the scapegoat of choice for wolves that don't want to risk putting up the first vote. Remember who did the same thing (albeit with less words)?. Right, Calo.
And since Sheep is turning into the Tuckles of day 2 (activity-wise), there's not much to fear from that vote. But at the same time, the wolves are waiting carefully for somebody to break the ice and vote Xardob or me, so a bandwagon can get rolling. Their road is laid out. If Xardob or me can be lynched, they'll gladly take it. The next day they can still go for Sheep (finally). And if they manage to lynch three innocents in three days, they will have won. This also works the other way around (though less conveniently). Lynch Sheep today - be disappointed (everyone can make a mistake) and go for Xardob or me tomorrow - same result.
So for me it boils down to the following group:
Calo
CW
Llandy
Ativan
This is unchanged from yesterday, but I still haven't gotten any really bad vibes from Facemelter. I'd be happy to read more from Suspicious Pilgrim (maybe with less cynism) and to read from Sheep at all.
Currently, Ativan - though the potentially most dangerous - is maybe the least likely member of the pack to me. Calo, CW and Llandy appear to me as the likeliest of combinations. CW has been the outright scummiest, followed by Llandy and Calo himself...and yet I feel almost most sure about Calo than about the other two. For now I'll keep my vote and will decide later who is most deserving.
I'll try to be concise (uh-oh...last time I said that, I posted a WoT).
The death of Soot is something very speculative to talk about. It involves a lot of WIFOM (Wine In Front Of Me - go watch "The Princess Bride" if you don't know the expression). Meaning you can just as eagerly claim Xardob and I wanted Soot out of the way, as well as saying the wolves knew that would come up, hence they did it to frame others. It's a game of endless speculation and doesn't lead anywhere. I think the only people profiting from it are the wolves themselves. Some thoughts:
1) Some of you guys are inconsistent. On one hand you hold Xardob and me to the highest of standards, on the other hand you expect us to play really dumb as wolves. Granted - the last bit could be part of an incredibly elaborate double-bluff - but that's again a lot of WIFOM. Fact is, a whole mob seems to be willing to lynch either Xardob or me today and that would mean that we did a really bad job at being wolves so far. Not that this is to be excluded, but I think it's far-fetched. Would it really be the smartest thing for Xardob as a wolf to shout "Lynch Tuckles, he's 100% wolf" only to be scrutinized today? Same for me. If people like CW know so much about past games, then she'd know also, that as a wolf I usually show far less doubt and my logic is usually far more elaborate than as a villager. Simple, because I can just make **** up and don't have to think twice. Just construct whatever I can from a person's posts.
So if you still think that it's suspicious because I don't know what so many see in Venerable (or because I haven't devoured the Nipple/Calo-quote war), think again. Or don't. It's really up to you.
2) When the day started, Calo and Llandy were very quick to point fingers. It confirmed my assumption, that the wolves killed Soot because he was a) unlynchable and b) as a side-effect, they could be trying to frame me or Xardob for it. While I might have understood if Llandy does so - since she's rather new, she might not have pondered the WIFOM question so much yet - I was quite surprised how unreflected Calodine acted in this:
Calodine said:
First off, it's funny how people are waiting for me to post, but seem entirely content with Calodine posting only this so far (except where he explains his jumping on the bandwagon in a one-liner and votes Sheep again).
He blames me right off the bat for the death of Tuckles AND Soot. Doesn't change my stance on anything? Well, I don't know, but it's not like my entire world has been turned upside down. Also, it didn't change much for Calo, seemingly, as he's still content voting Sheep and putting the blame for everything that went wrong on me. Calo was the one saying he won't budge. I said, me too. He budged. Turned out bad. My fault. It's a rather simplistic view of things and if Calo's intentions are good, I'm seriously surprised how he could subscribe to such logic.
His last sentence about "who he was gunning for" seems like the entrance call for Llandy, who admittedly prepared big parts of her rant over the last days (not that this in itself is a bad thing, no no).
But imagine the following scenario. Let's say, I stepped on a wolf's tail yesterday when pointing out Llandy's interaction with Calodine. Of course, they're not going to admit it, but they'll be well aware that their game might have been slightly too obvious. So at night they confer and draw up a plan for the next day. The more experienced wolves advise the newcomer: "Be more active, don't play the funny-noob too much, it'll draw attention." And instead of eating the guy who stepped on their tail (me), they rather decide to eat another dangerous guy (Soot) and frame me for it. Not very difficult, as Xardob and I have been isolated from the group's opinion already on day 1. Two innocents down, now let's go after the hunters.
So a long story short: Llandy's post reeks of wolfish advice to me. Her packies tipped her off to be active (which is for her an easy way to defend herself against all criticism) and less jokey. Interestingly enough, despite her promise to "keep on joking" because it's "who she is", her attitude towards Calodine has become far less jokey since then, at least I don't recall any Yorkshire-comment since I called her out on it. And the content of her long WoT basically is a long attempt to frame her usual suspects (mostly me) for what went wrong.
It's funny, that even though Calodine was so shocked the result of the night didn't change my view on things, that almost nobody has really changed his/her view of things. The only one to at least try was Xardob when going after Nipple. Also Xardob's analysis of the votes yesterday was the only thing of remotely analytical value of the lynch-result. Rather than indulging in WIFOM-speculation and emotional appeals (Oh Noes Adaham, two innocents down, your fault!), he looked at the cold, hard facts. Doesn't mean I agree that Nipplemelters vote was the most suspicious of the bunch, but I understand where he's coming from and it was worthwhile to prod Nipple about it.
3) There's at least one dumb guy around. Yeah, could be me, true dat. But the problem I'm having is, that while Ativan also followed in similar tracks (albeit more subtle) as Cal and Llandy, so did CW, too (albeit far less subtle). There's no pack of 4 people, so at least one of you guys is a confused villager. Based on experience, I would naturally exclude Calodine and Ativan from that, which would leave either Llandy or CW just being willing helpers. But there's no guarantee for that. And I'm having real trouble seeing CW as anything else than a badly camouflaged wolf that is just staying alive by not posting too much to get attention.
CW: Her post starts off with an almost unbearable appeal to emotion. Then she starts constructing a case out of Soot's comments of the 1st day. The core of it is, that any disagreement between Soot & Xardob and Soot & me was a reason for Xardob and me to eat Soot tonight. CW says "if she was a wolf, she'd eat Soot, too". Well, either you're trying to be witty again by admitting what you did last night, or you're really less experienced than I thought. In my time, I've almost never seen that the wolves eat their enemies at night, it's far too obvious. They usually go for somebody who can't be traced back at all, or they go for their friends and try to blame their enemies for it. Yes, I know...WIFOM...could be the ultimate double-bluff, but that's not even what you're implying. You're just saying, "if I was a wolf, I'd eat my enemy". Well, no, you wouldn't.
CW is - considering the fact she hasn't contributed jack**** to the discussion prior to her long post - awfully sure of what she's saying, which is suspicious to me. She goes on for the whole post to talk about Xardob and me and finally...votes Sheep? Man, voting Sheep has really become the scapegoat of choice for wolves that don't want to risk putting up the first vote. Remember who did the same thing (albeit with less words)?. Right, Calo.
And since Sheep is turning into the Tuckles of day 2 (activity-wise), there's not much to fear from that vote. But at the same time, the wolves are waiting carefully for somebody to break the ice and vote Xardob or me, so a bandwagon can get rolling. Their road is laid out. If Xardob or me can be lynched, they'll gladly take it. The next day they can still go for Sheep (finally). And if they manage to lynch three innocents in three days, they will have won. This also works the other way around (though less conveniently). Lynch Sheep today - be disappointed (everyone can make a mistake) and go for Xardob or me tomorrow - same result.
So for me it boils down to the following group:
Calo
CW
Llandy
Ativan
This is unchanged from yesterday, but I still haven't gotten any really bad vibes from Facemelter. I'd be happy to read more from Suspicious Pilgrim (maybe with less cynism) and to read from Sheep at all.
Currently, Ativan - though the potentially most dangerous - is maybe the least likely member of the pack to me. Calo, CW and Llandy appear to me as the likeliest of combinations. CW has been the outright scummiest, followed by Llandy and Calo himself...and yet I feel almost most sure about Calo than about the other two. For now I'll keep my vote and will decide later who is most deserving.
Nipplemelter said:
As flattering as your memories of me might be, if you check the last games I played before I left, you'll see I couldn't be really arsed anymore to get into this kind of stuff. Years ago - when I did enjoy spending the time between 1 and 4 am on a forum - I would have indeed gone through that whole pile and constructed something out of it. The fact I'm seasoned means I don't do this anymore, not that I do this. Come on, I have 1 1/2 jobs now and I'm married...I'm actually rather happy with my overall level of contribution compared to my last games before I left (I dropped out in my last game). Also, think about it...there might have been a reason that I left. I just didn't feel the joy of wading through posts on the Internet anymore. That, and not being able to play the way I want to play without people expecting me to play the way I used to play.
So yeah, in a nutshell: I'm playing...I'm enjoying playing again...but I'm doing it on my own terms. From time to time I'll post more, but I'm not going into the effort of quoting like it's 2008 all over again. In general, I'm relying more on my gut now.
Yeah, I guess I'm not doing a great job of telling you what it is about Xardob that makes me trust him, but there are some "trains of thought" that I can honestly follow, so that I tend to think he's innocent. As a villain he has much more difficulty in creating those "moments" in which I feel like he just wrote what I thought.
- More on Adaham: His LoS still is not sitting well with me. More often than not my thoughts on suspects lie closely to those of his, but something with it feels wrong to me. Probably because (as he admits) he hasn't been following people closely enough (regarding his thoughts on Sheep), causing him to get things wrong in his analysis (I never said I think Sheep is less scummy than Cado, unless you were talking about someone else in the blurb on me). Additionally, his "defense" of Xardob (in the sense that he feels Xardob is the person he trusts the most at the time) is not convincing to me. For you he showed that he was scumhunting, but it seems like you are the only one to feel that way. Granted, he did make a nice post on Tuckles, but that was after your thoughts on him. Otherwise, all he had at the time was a LoS and "lets lynch Tuckles." None of this is inherently wolfy, but the combination of it all bugs me. Either Adaham is a wolf trying to be careful, or his time off has made him rusty.
And yes, I'm rusty, no doubt...I feel it every day in the morning when getting out of bed.
Unusual...maybe, even if I don't actually think so. But it's something rather uncommon for a wolf, unless Xardob would want to play a very aggressive out-in-the-open-wolf. But that again doesn't fit his playstyle in general and also not in this game. Also, would he do this in a game with Ativan and me? That would be a very gutsy move, and again I don't think so.
I'll be honest, I'm a little lost here. I'm still suspicious of everyone I was yesterday, but, and I'm a little embarrassed to admit this, I can also be convinced to vote anyone right now. I need to read back and organize my thoughts. While I do this, can someone go over again why Sheep is such a good target? Preferably without mentioning the out of context quote from Cal.