My new LoS, in order of suspiciousness. To avoid sounding like a broken record, I’ll try to sum up the pertinent points.
• Adaham
I will admit that my initial suspicion of Adaham was based off a post he made that I interpreted as a veiled threat. One or two people have pointed out this was an OMGUS reaction on my behalf, but since then, every post of Adaham’s that I’ve read has made me more and more suspicious of him and has given me no reason to alter my suspicion.
Here he makes several claims which simply don’t make sense. For example, playing the “everyone suspects me” card, as he’s also doing right now. CW makes his gut tingle but Sheep doesn’t. People only thought Soot was innocent because he posted a lot. Uh, okay. It had nothing to do with the impartial tone of Soot’s posts and the actual content of his discussion. It was simply because he posted a lot. :\
In his LoS he completely fails to see anything suspicious in 2 of the most suspicious players of the game at that stage (Sheep & Pilgrim) despite some very solid arguments for lynching sheep and some pretty dodgy behaviour from Pilgrim, and he’s the only one who thinks Xardob’s LoS wasn’t lackadaisical. He also claimed Soot’s contributions were vague and lacking substance despite Soot being the strongest wolf-hunter of Day 1.
There are many other posts of his which I find suspicious, but I think I’ve addressed the rest in general discussion and I’m trying to keep this succinct. In short, I get the feeling that I’m on Adaham’s list because he’s on mine. I like to think that this is because I’ve managed to find the wolf in him, because I’m struggling to entertain the notion that he’s innocent.
•
Suspicious Pilgrim
I think it should be pretty obvious why Pilgrim’s a wolf. He has outright ignored almost every accusation of suspicious behaviour, instead trying to shift the focus to other players (I was one, and IIRC Cal or Nipple was the other). His activity towards the end of the game was downright suspicious compared to his activity earlier on in the game, and his reluctance in lynching Tuckles was faker than Gwyneth Paltrow’s Oscar acceptance tears. Despite being now four days in to Day 2, he has yet to make an appearance. I like to give people the benefit of the doubt where interweb absence is concerned because sometimes **** happens IRL and the forums should not take precedence over that.
But seriously. We’re four days in. Several people considered Pilgrim a strong suspect in Day 1, but by being absent he’s completely flying under the radar of most people who are instead concentrating on accusing each other.
(In-post edit: between writing this LoS and posting it, Pilgrim has posted, but I’ll address that in a separate general discussion post as it doesn’t change my opinion of him one bit)
When he does posts, his arguments are paper-thin, and at times even insulting. It seems like he’s trying to goad his victims into losing their temper. He dismisses accusations with one-liners and turns them into accusations about his accuser. For an example of this, click
here
If I had to put money on it, I’d say he and Adaham got together pre-game and agreed that Pilgrim should play obvious/dumb wolf, and Adaham would play sneaky wolf. This would explain why Adaham doesn’t find anything suspicious in Pilgrim’s post, and why he (earlier in the game) felt that Pilgrim and Sheep were blending into one person in his mind.
The reason Adaham’s my #1 lynch despite me feeling that Pilgrim is more obvious, is because I feel like I can deal with obvious better than sneaky. And if this whole ‘absent for most of the game’ strategy is indicative of how Pilgrim’s going to play, it should make it easy to get rid of him after we’ve dealt with the other two.
•
Venerable Sheep
Actually, my third place is tied between Sheep and Xardob, but as with the whole Adaham/Tuckles situation, I think Sheep is more obvious about it.
Much like Pilgrim (but to a greater extent), Sheep was around earlier in the game then absent almost entirely until the end, when he showed up just long enough to switch his vote and contribute towards the lynching of an innocent. His attempt to frame Calodine seems quite obvious; he quotes Cal’s stuff out of context and tries to misdirect people into believing Cal said something he didn’t. He’s kinda indirectly responsible for the Cal/Nipple ****storm.
Because Sheep hasn’t posted as much as most other people, it’s been hard for me to get a personal feel for him, but his recent post (which I haven’t had time to address in discussion yet) just feels completely wrong. He barely attempts to defend himself, tries to direct attention (again) onto Cal and this time throws CW into the mix, and apologises for his ‘activity.’ More like lack of activity.
However, a lot of my suspicion about Sheep comes from reading the posts other players have made about him. Soot was willing to lynch him, before he got conveniently killed. And yeah, Sheep claims that this would be stupid for him to do as it draws attention. But maybe the wolves decided to spread that attention around a little and implicate Adaham (or Xardob, who in this scenario would be innocent) by taking out Soot (who was also the best player at the time).
The fact that Ativan, Cal and CW (who feature along with me on Adaham’s LoS) also want Sheep lynched is also a strong case for his lynching. I do, however, still believe that Adaham is the greater threat because he’s clever and could possibly talk his way out of a lynching, whereas Sheep doesn’t really stand a chance.
•
Xardob
I’m finding Xardob the hardest person in this whole game to get a read on. On one hand he makes some salient points, but on the other hand he seems to completely misunderstand the reasoning of others or just fail to see things which seem obvious.
I think I need to go back and re-read all of Xardob’s post. Problem is, I can easily see him being a wolf playing a confident and aggressive game (based on his insistence on lynching Tuckles) but I can also see him as a villager who made a bad decision and got framed. Overall, I find his behaviour more suspicious than not, but if my first three guesses are correct then he’s an innocent having a bad game. Like I said though, I need to go back and read his posts more carefully.
•
ComingWinter
CW got off to a bit of a shaky start, but I think she recovered from it well enough. Her absence was most notable in the latter half of the game and I think that’s a pity, because I would have liked to have seen her opinions on Tuckles right before he got lynched, and it would have given me a chance to get a better grasp on her thoughts on the others too.
Overall, my opinions seem to run along the same lines as CW’s, though I think her first post on Day 2 was a bit OTT. I can see why she did it that way, but I don’t think this was the right game/crowd to try it with, as it sounded a little too much like narration.
Other than that, I can follow her logic and can’t find much to disagree about in her posts. I think CW is innocent, though she’s lowest on my innocents list because I haven’t see as much from her as I have the others.
•
Calodine
Cal’s anger/frustration during the whole Cal/Nipple thing, whilst a little heated, seemed genuine enough to me. That’s one of the main reasons I believe he’s innocent. One thing I like about Cal’s posts is that he doesn’t hold back, and seems to say what he thinks at the time even if it’s not the smartest thing to do.
There have been one or two things Cal has said/done which have made me a bit wary towards him (for example, trying to make it clear that Xardob was the one to organise the Tuckles lynch, because it wasn’t as if Cal was forced to change his vote under duress) and I don’t always agree with his reasoning, but as with CW, I find my thoughts mostly echoing his.
•
Ativan
Ativan’s first LoS was decent enough, and since then he’s made some good contributions. I agree with a lot of his assessments of people, though I’ve noticed that he does tend to speculate on certain things then fail to follow them through when nobody picks them up (such as
this post). On the whole, however, there’s not much he’s said that I disagree with. I’m reluctant to say that I trust him, because the last person I trusted the most got eaten (and besides, this is Ativan’s castle, so I imagine he’s sitting in a room high up in some tower drinking the blood of innocents, stroking his white cat and cackling maniacally, as all castle-owners do) but I haven’t seen him post anything that screams ‘wolf’ at me. Overall he’s been pretty thorough and logical and (IMO) relatively impartial compared to some other players (me included).
I’m slightly worried he might actually murder someone if Sheep doesn’t get lynched this round, so that will be interesting to see.
•
Nipplemelter
Having re-read the Day 1 discussions last week, I’ve noticed that Nipple’s suspicions and thoughts are almost aligned with my own. The only one I disagree with him on is Cal. I think those two just had a really big misunderstanding and went on a Ross & Rachel break. I think they would have accomplished much more if they hadn’t gotten involved in a poo-flinging contest, but that’s in the past and will hopefully never be repeated again.
But as I was saying, I think Nipplemelter is doing a very good job so far of picking apart other players' posts/arguments, backing his own suspicions up with quotes/evidence, and generally making his viewpoint understood. I was initially suspicious of him during parts of Day 1, but having seen him play and being able to easily follow his posts has pretty much allayed that suspicion. Nipple’s been the least wolfy person (IMO) overall, and I feel that his posts have been regular and consistent.
Apologies for yet another WoT, but you can blame Ativan for this one as he wanted folks to post more LoS’s. I hope all of this post makes sense, because you have no idea how dosed up I am on cold/flu medicine right now. I know if anything doesn’t make sense, somebody will be along to point it out.
Now damnit, Ativan, post your damn stuff!
