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I actually found my issue. Apparently in the past (year or so ago maybe), I had opted into a beta build, and it was still selected. I removed that, it downloaded a bunch of new content, and now it works.

I'm encountering the exact same issues as you.. I've tried reinstalling the entire app, verifying cache, launching via anything and everything. I can't even send log reports. It just says something like "failed to send try again". This is my first time trying to play the game for quite a few months. Has Taleworlds abandoned this thread? I don't see any comments from them lately.