Werewolf is a game of numbers:
Quite literally. You'll see me say often that Werewolf is a game of discussion, and that's true. That's how the game is played. But win conditions come down to simple math. How many players are there on any given team? Zero wolves? Game over. The game is dictated by discussion, for discovery and positioning, in the early and middle phases. But very often the endgame comes down to the numbers.
So what are our numbers? We have ten living players. Of those living players we likely have four wolves. Wolves win when they consist of 50% of the living players, so this wolf pack would win when there were eight players alive.
Frisian is playing the numbers game, and he has realized we're at lynch or lose. He's going straight for the win. If we mislynch today and the wolves get one kill at night, that's game over. The only way to prevent this is to actually kill a wolf today, and conveniently, we actually know who a wolf is. The best bet to continue the game is to kill the wolf we know, rather than risk the game by killing the unproven target. This is exactly why, sure as I am about Grimmend (and now Fris), my vote lies on Trevty.
Consider, for a moment, if we were at lynch or lose, why any wolf would be so eager to kill a packmate and extend the life of the village. What would that gain? Wouldn't it be better to give the village a reason to kill someone else? Think about that, and then take a look at what I'm doing and what Frisian is doing. How does it make sense for me to kill a wolf now, if I'm one myself? Even if I were the necromancer, wasting a day wouldn't do me any good. I would want less innocents, by a count of two, not consistent numbers.
So which plan kills two innocents, and which does not?
I'm sorry, but my actions don't make sense from the perspective of a wolf. And Frisian's make none from the perspective of an innocent. Not killing Trevty today is about the most wolfish thing you can do.
The problems with Frisian's claim:
The above should be reason enough for anyone to commit to voting for Trevty, but the holes in Frisian's claim bear mentioning. Firstly, he is claiming that we have two seers, which is pretty unusual. Not unprecedented, sure, but highly unusual. That counts against him. Secondly, he only made any kind of claim after our known seer was dead. It's always best to make up a fake role when the real version isn't around to protest. And he didn't comment hardly at all when Moose claimed. A real seer would have problems with someone else claiming to be another seer. Thirdly, he has given us no new information, beyond this one claim about me, conveniently scanning only a dead player and "being too distraught" to do anything the second night. Lastly, whether he realizes it or not, he did admit to being roleblocked last night. Of course he spun it as an attempt on his life (suffering an attack gains sympathy, increases credibility), but it's pretty clear what it is. "Holding me down until morning" is simple to understand. He was held put. How could he go and scan me if he was held down by a dream, even after waking, until morning? Whoopsie daisy. Not to mention, he's claiming this attempt happened, when the wolves have never demonstrated the ability to make multiple attacks at night, when the wolf attack has already been accounted for and one wolf is dead. That's the same kind of mistake Grimmend was making. Assigning too many abilities to too few people.
At least I know who we should lynch tomorrow.
Are you suggesting that the untold number of nondescript guards Moose randomly picked a fight with are played by one of us?
Because if you're sane, it's clear that they're non player characters.
Feragorn said:
We sure he wasn't compelled to be crazy?
That makes no sense. Compelling someone to go get themselves killed is no different, game wise, from just killing them. You're assigning a kill ability to a role that has never demonstrated the ability to kill. Forcing numbers of vote changes is a far cry from killing.