Except Wagner now has a new internal divide among Prigozhin's loyalists, will lose manpower to MoD contracts, and may fracture to the point of collapse. Unsurprisingly, if you look at it like it's an internal conflict in organized crime then it makes more sense. A faction coalesces around a particular grievance, openly rebels against the top leadership and causes a little damage, but ultimately they're only there out of self-interest and when a good deal is offered then the leaders of the rebelling group take it. They lose the trust of the people following them who get nothing out of the deal, and those people will get pressured out or fall in with another group. What looks like a power struggle at first is nothing more than selfish opportunism.See, we do disagree here.
I don’t think that the way the situation was resolved even remotely shows that monopoly on violence was regained, that control was restored. If anything, it shows exactly the opposite, the mutiny being ended not by Putin and his circle, and the rebels not being punished but instead basically rewarded.
See? It's already happening.Seems Warner’s fangs will be drawn as it’s transferring its heavy military equipment to the Russian army. IDK how that plays out for Wagner operations overseas. It suggests any Wagnerites joining Prigozhin in Belarus will only have small arms.
Just waiting to hear that Wagnerites have been “encouraged” to join penal battalions with cattle prods and will be used up (along with supporting Storm Z units) as cannon fodder to spot Ukrainian firing positions. It would be an ironic Mafia outcome given the fate of bus loads of prisoners recruited by Prigozhin. Posthumous medals all around. (PS just speculation).It's kind of a meme to say the Russian government is basically just the Russian mob, but it's not really wrong.
Indiscriminate targeting of civilians is evil.In June we had a slew of massive rocket strikes on our cities and lots of murdered civilians. There was a picture that struck me the most. A grandfather sitting over the body of his 9 y.o. granddaughter right on the street. It was truly heartbreaking. Weeks later our writer Victoria Amelina wrote a poem about this that made my eyes water a little.
Yesterday I found out that Victoria, who was a volunteer, was also killed in a recent rocket strike on Kramatorsk. Just a month after that little girl. Victoria wrote her poems so that we would remember everyone they killed. I've translated her poem and will just leave it here.
Every day is a heartache.
I remember how I kept myself safe when I was a kid
Because if something would have happened to me
My grandpa would cry so painfully
Like on that day when grandma died in the hospital
But my grandpa is with her now
So I am not afraid of war and death
And when a shell kills a neighbour's girl
I confront the heavens, where they all reside
I say: look, it is I who no longer has a grandpa
And even my grandpa would agree with me:
"Yes, would be better if it were you, for you no longer have a grandpa
And hers, look how he sits and sits over her body
He is not even able to cry so painfully
And frankly, I wouldn't be able either"
Can you pick him out from this lineup?Also, reports that Prigozhin is (was) in St. Petersburg recently.
interesting speculation:
Seems it’s going better for Ukraine than the Russian MOD want to admit.Putin's life and career depend on how this war goes now.
I’ve seen the reports that soldiers have to buy their leave entitlement with a months salary from their commanders etc. Corruption is embedded, but that doesn’t mean every Russian General is incompetent and uncaring. Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reported that Popov had been relieved of command for requesting the rotation of units out of the frontline. All reports suggest he was well respected and effective unlike Gerasimov.It's a Russian general for crying out loud
He claims he went crazy.or that Prigozhin actually went rogue
What looks like a power struggle at first is nothing more than selfish opportunism.
It's kind of a meme to say the Russian government is basically just the Russian mob, but it's not really wrong.
Girkin was very dismissive of Putin's efforts to appeal to Wagner patriotism "...Call mercenaries to conscience? - this is from the category of a joke about the search for innocent girls in a brothel... To put pressure on the fact that the front is cracking under enemy attacks and there is an acute shortage of reinforcements and reserves? What do mercenaries care about that? They are well fed in Africa, and the war there is both easier and safer..." Finally referring to Putin as "...the old fool..."Andrey Kolesnikov (kremlin pocket journo) released a short article based on his recent interview/conversation with Putin. There was a story about it in the rag, but I can't see it fully translated into English anywhere, so will share some insights that I find hilarious.
NBs by Kolesnikov. I love how petty and peeved Putin sounds and this is supposed to be a PR piece.
— What actually happened during that meeting on June 29?
— On the on hand, I assessed their battle achievements, on the other hand, I assessed their actions during the June 24. Finally, I outlined possible venues for their further service. Including using them in battle again. That was it.
!And it took them 3 hours.
— So can we assume,— I said,— that PMC Wagner will be preserved as a combat unit?
— Well, PMC Wagner does not exist! — Exclaimed Vladimir Putin.— We do not have any legislation pertaining to private military organizations! It simply does not exist!
!So, if there is no legislation, there is no PMC.
!Well, what was that all about though?
— Such legal entity does not exist,— underlined Vladimir Putin.
!Apparently, he was speaking as a professional lawyer here. Understandable.
— The group is there, but legally it does not exist! — repeated the president.— This is a separate issue, related to actual legalization. But this issue should be discussed at the State Duma, the government. It's a tough one.
!Later Vladimir Putin shared a story from that meeting, where he offered Wagner commanders (35 were present, as he confirmed) several options for further employment. Including continuing working under their current combat leader (Sedoy) who they served with for the last 16 months.
— They all could be gathered in one place and continue their service,— said Vladimir Putin. — Nothing would change for them. They would be led by the same person, who led them all this time.
— And what came out of it?
— Many of them nodded a lot while I talked,— continued Vladimir Putin.— But Prigozhin, who sat at the front and didn't see his men nodding, replied "No, guys will not accept such a proposition".