Jadow said:
Well, first of all I'm gonna say that TDM forgot to say that the polish-lithuanian commonwealth managed to take and hold Moscow. Only for a few years, but still longer than anyone else.
As for how to invade Russia... I would try to limit their income, so they cant equip their armies well... (i.e. trade embargoes, buying oil from a different source). Then, I would mobilize a cyber attack on all Russian electronic infrastructure. Be it civilian, corporate, government or military, I'd fry it all. Before I mobilized the cyber attack though, I'd order all our cyber infrastructure to have a manual backup (i.e. non-electronic) so that, even if things were much slower, nothing would collapse completely. Then, I'd try for a 2-way conventional warfare invasion of Russia. One coalition/country attacking from the West (I'd say probably say a coalition of European nations and American allies) as well as from the East ( i.e. a coalition of the U.S. , Canada, maybe Australia and Japan).
However, even if I could feasibly do this in real life, I wouldn't. Why? Because once things looked unwinnable for the Russians, they'd just use their nukes. Which is when we'd have to use our nukes. Which is when everything falls apart and we're all ****ed.
Now remember, Im not here to fry anyone. So dont read this as if I'm writing it angst filled or anything.
Russia is an export economy, mainly raw materials. So they need the sales to survive, thankfully for them, the west needs their stuff. I assume were ignoring public opinion here, because most people don't like paying their weekly wage to afford to travel to work. On the plus side, it will be good for the environment!
Cyber infrastructure in Russia isn't quite as advanced as it is in the USA, so while it will hurt them, it won't hurt that much, and their military will be pretty much unaffected. So it would certainly have an effect on their economy, but not as major as it would be if performed in reverse. That is of course assuming that your hackers do the awesome and cut through them like butter. I do think though your trivialising how hard it is to transfer everything to a hard copy version, but seeing as were talking war with the bear, I will assume that it would be done...
Russia on the other hand would still have a higher percentage of their stuff hard copy.
Now, lets move to the invasion plans. Currently you have planned for oil supplies, so thats a non issue.
Eastern Invasion:
Japan currently has nothing in the way of offensive ability. They gave it away with the idea of a god emperor, currently their defence forces are precisely that only. However if you convince them into it, I guess they could make pretty good meat shields. Them crazy japanese
Canada and Australia, assuming they put themselves into a state of conscription and what not might be able to muster up, 200k troops between them? They both have standing armys of about 55 000. Sort of a sucky side the east. Maybe South Korea could help, assuming they are willing to divert troops from their own border.
Would America be entering conscription mode or not? If not I figure maybe a million, million and a half max deployment. If they conscripted? Lets say 5.
However that will actually be needed to fight in the west, so lets go halvsies.
I wont include South Korea, because if they deployed troops to Russia, NK might cause some problems.
Eastern Invasion force without conscription: 750 000
Eastern Invastion force with conscription: 2 700 000
Western Invasion:
The west however is where alot of the action is at. Russians industry is generally to the western side of the country (However the largest parts are still in central russia) So lets run some numbers.
Germany: Capable of deploying perhaps... 200 000 troops. Lets say a mill with conscription
United Kingdom: Due to distance chances are they would be less inclined to transport troops in as large a quantitys. Maybe deploy 100 000. Lets say 300 with conscription
Ukraine: A tentative 100 000. With conscription not alot more. Neighbouring Belarus would exert enough pressure to make them conservative.
America will probably deploy half of their forces here. Bringing the total to
4 Million troops. Nice. Without conscription it dwindles to a less respectable 1.15 million.
The issue here is Russia is fighting on home soild and can deploy 100% of forces, without needing to leave reserve at home. Using the same generous calculation they would pull up in the region of 5 or 6 million. However the defender is always gonna have an easier time in getting numbers, so the whole patriotism thing could easily jack it to 10.
Fighting an advanced enemy, on their own ground, which is rather hostile is a bad thing. On top of that, two fronts will generally favour the defender over the attacker, unless for some reason there must be two fronts, or the attackers have land borders. The reason being is simply logistics is much easier to handle inside the castle than out.
The Russian military doesn't have a reputation for incompetence, rather ruthlessness and efficiency. Their air defences are arguably more advanced than their american counterparts, and their ground forces have always been a step above most western militarys. The area I can see the west taking a bit of ground is the air, however the upgraded MiG-31 (If I have my numbers right) is capable of intercepting the F-22 relatively easy, and the russians took the time to invest in IR tracking, which is arguably worse for the F-22. The F-22 does posess BVR targeting, but if a MiG gets in close its all over, they invented supermanouverability. Even the MiG 25 flown by Iraqis has shot down american planes on occasion.
Anyway, Gotta go now. So even assuming all your plans work, your in for one hell of a fight.