Analysts suggest that the key trigger was the Russian MOD demand, backed by Putin, for Wagner to sign contracts. If so, this wasn’t a coup to replace Putin, but a spat for Wagner to retain its independence. AFAIK only those Wagner members who refused to join the march on Moscow will be joining the MOD. IDK how that leaves regular units who supported Wagner. I doubt that will be forgotten/forgiven.
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I just assume Prigozhin will be assassinated soon, and the Wagner troops brought under (formal) Russian command.
I'm also curious how much money Prigozhin was given, and perhaps other perks...
I'm also curious how much money Prigozhin was given, and perhaps other perks...
Have you been paying any attention to the Russian army over the last 30 years?
Seems that Dyumin, not Lukashenko, brokered the deal and is now tipped to replace Shoigu at the MOD.
Strelkov Igor Ivanovich on Telegram:
“- About the military mutiny: as a result of the mutiny, there was a serious redistribution of centers of power, in fact, a coup d'état;
- Shoigu and Gerasimov will lose their power, even if they formally retain their posts;
- The rear was not ready for war, the 10,000th rebel group was able to easily move in the rear; “
english.ahram.org.eg
Strelkov Igor Ivanovich on Telegram:
“- About the military mutiny: as a result of the mutiny, there was a serious redistribution of centers of power, in fact, a coup d'état;
- Shoigu and Gerasimov will lose their power, even if they formally retain their posts;
- The rear was not ready for war, the 10,000th rebel group was able to easily move in the rear; “
Future of Putin pal Shoigu on line after Wagner revolt - War in Ukraine - World
They have sun-bathed bare-chested together in remote Siberia, shared fishing holidays and played on the same ice hockey team.
english.ahram.org.eg
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I thought blood money died out with the vikings, but seems to live on in Russia:
Nice to know Russia’s a liberal society where every armed mercenary is free to chose their own fate
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Dude. It’s not a screw up. It’s a mercenary company gone rogue killing a score of high ranking officers in the course of the mutiny. And as a result it’s leader basically pays a fine.
Russia is literally not a real state after this.
This sounds like the kind of state Russia has been for the better part of a century, so I don't see how it fundamentally changes their legitimacy.
I disagree. The state up to this point has been very careful to always maintain the monopoly on violence or at least the optics.
It is not as much about legitimacy as about control and cohesion. There is no real sanction for a mutiny if it gets big enough and that’s an important realisation.
It is not as much about legitimacy as about control and cohesion. There is no real sanction for a mutiny if it gets big enough and that’s an important realisation.
I'm inclined to agree with Weaver here, it does seem like the pitbulls were allowed to bite each other for as long as the owner was deciding who to side with. It's a bit different than the usual, when they glare and sometimes lift a leg into a bowl of one they don't like. If slap on a wrist is all they get now (and that remains to be seen), the internal Russian Corruption Olympics may enter a new stage.
Whatever comes out of this, though, I don't think it will have much impact on the current conflict, I'm afraid.
Whatever comes out of this, though, I don't think it will have much impact on the current conflict, I'm afraid.
It all helps. The British MOD seem quite hopeful:
Suggests any eventual break through will break the camel’s back.
Au contraire. The whole kerfaffle started after Putin tried to pressure wagners, who were just withdrawing from Bakhmut, to sign contracts with MoD. Likely to throw them into meat grinder again.
As per the “lukashenko deal” wagners are supposedly off the hook now. Which means MoD lost their best storm troops. Even if some Wagners do sign the contract, they will become a part of other MoD units, which already means decreased efficiency.
And that’s not even analysing the hit on morale or possible crackdown on MoD regiments who officially joined mutiny.
I think the impact will be profound.
I think the deal was a move to regain control of a situation that could have revealed the ineptitude of Russia's military domestically. Internally, they do what any state does while at war and churn out propaganda about their invincible armies, but Prigozhin very visibly challenged that narrative. If they didn't cut a deal, then he could have kept shooting down helicopters, seizing military administration buildings, and likely finished his little convoy to Moscow before significant resistance was mounted against him. That's absolutely losing monopoly on the optics, even if he was resolutely squished shortly after with overwhelming force to reassert the state's monopoly on violence (which I doubt they could do without a protracted fight). This way, the state regains their monopoly on the optics without having to play the rest of their hand and show how ineffective they are in the face of a bunch of dissidents who just a little while ago were complaining about having no ammunition. So really, we don't disagree.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Russian state media started pushing reports from "investigations" of the downed helicopters and claimed they were taken out by Ukrainian border raiders, to shift the spotlight off of Wagner and back to Ukraine. There will certainly be some shift in the narrative as the incident is downplayed, and it could go back to business as usual. The only PMC large enough to make a scene like this is Wagner, and they're being moved to Belarus. Whether some state asset like the FSB or military recognizes the significance and decides to capitalize remains to be seen, but remember that we have the luxury of being on the outside looking in. The people with real knowledge of the situation and power in the state are loyalists and appointees, and that's been the case since the monarchy was abolished. The rest get information that is filtered to support the state's narrative.
Their morale is already at rock bottom, and Wagner's been pulling thousands of inmates out of prisons to feed to the meatgrinder. So, it's more of the same and more meat for the grinder. Russia also has a history of sending their undesirables to die on the front lines.
The spin according to Prigozhin:
So much for keeping his head down and offering a low profile.
The spin according to Putin:
www.sott.net
Fascinating to read the English transcript of his speech.
The view of Girkin:
Strelkov Igor Ivanovich #KRP
“I haven't seen anything more pitiful in the performance of a man remotely resembling the president. All are good fellows. Everyone did a great job, it's time to issue orders and make Shoigu, finally, just a marshal. The confusion continues.”
Putin’s scheduled to make a second speech after this Security Meeting. Maybe we’ll find out who THEY are - the ones behind it all. The betrayers who lied to those nice Wagnerite war criminals.
So much for keeping his head down and offering a low profile.
The spin according to Putin:
Putin speaks again to the nation: Mutiny organizers wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other, Kiev wanted the same
Russian President Vladimir Putin has chastised the organizers of the recent aborted mutiny perpetrated by forces of the PMC Wagner Group, stating that these people betrayed not only their country and their people but also the men whom they duped...
www.sott.net
The view of Girkin:
Strelkov Igor Ivanovich #KRP
“I haven't seen anything more pitiful in the performance of a man remotely resembling the president. All are good fellows. Everyone did a great job, it's time to issue orders and make Shoigu, finally, just a marshal. The confusion continues.”
Putin’s scheduled to make a second speech after this Security Meeting. Maybe we’ll find out who THEY are - the ones behind it all. The betrayers who lied to those nice Wagnerite war criminals.
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See, we do disagree here.
I don’t think that the way the situation was resolved even remotely shows that monopoly on violence was regained, that control was restored. If anything, it shows exactly the opposite, the mutiny being ended not by Putin and his circle, and the rebels not being punished but instead basically rewarded.
The outcome certainly seems to have emboldened critics as evidenced by Girkin’s recent Telegram post:
Strelkov Igor Ivanovich #KRP
“Imitation of Strugatsky. "It's hard to be black."
His Majesty Reba the First looked sadly at the members of the Privy Council, dejectedly huddled in their chairs... There were reasons for sadness and despondency
: great hopes, and instead of gratitude, he raised the Gray Companies and almost burst into Arkanar on the way from the Irukan front...
Everyone on whom His Majesty's gaze fell lowered their gaze and began to fidget nervously.
Here is the Supreme Constable sitting... With a face like a baked apple. Once offended by fate at birth, but by it (as if in compensation for a congenital lack of intelligence and incurable moral deformity) ascended to the very heights under the last King (Pitz the Sixth Forever Drunk) and even more ascended after the right choice made upon coming to power Slaves of the First.
He sits ... So modestly ... Instead of a brilliant uniform - a gray suit, he even took off his watch (costing half an Arkanara). During the rebellion of Vaga the Rotten One, he could not do anything at all. Either because the whole army unanimously hates him for the "alternative victories" on the East Irukan Plains, or simply because at the height of the rebellion he got cold feet, ran away and hid under the skirts of his numerous deputies.
And here is the Grand Inquisitor, the Storm of the Discontented, Don Borton the Inconspicuous. Erysipelas - sourer than lemon. It suddenly turned out that in the army of Vaga the Rotten, he did not have a single agent capable of warning about the impending conspiracy. Or maybe it turned out very well, but just decided not to report? Or was he involved in the conspiracy?
At Don Sir Medvedgold, a well-known liar, jester and balabol, who was kept in the Privy Council for the sake of entertainment from the eternal clerical boredom - Majesty did not look. There is nothing to look at. - This useless creature does not even know how to conspire. In suppression - even more so.
"Losers... only losers!" Reba sighed to himself. Where can you get others? Here is Don Ram-Zan the Bearded, the leader of the northern barbarians, promised a lot, but when it came to fulfillment, he was going for so long that his guards arrived at the place of the probable battle exactly when it was all over.
And the pitiful babble of the generals? Don Sur Vikinsky, the Victor at Kherson, when he called on the army to counter the rebellion, was shaking so much that literally no one listened to his words. The military gathered were mainly interested in whether Don Sur would stick the hilt of the sword, which he nervously twirled around the buttocks, up his ass, or not.
The great saboteur Don Al Lekseev, nicknamed "Stepanych" - was generally ready to cooperate with the cook. And the illustrious general Don Ev Kurov - forgot how to speak, as soon as he was deprived of swords and daggers, surrounded by the Gray Good Guys of the Cook.
But, all the same, it is gratifying, however, that none of THESE turned out to be capable of anything. Even when the King of the Reb the First himself fled in the carriage towards the Second Capital, no one dared to pick up the crown lying on the road and climb the throne ... Therefore, His Majesty the King of the
Reb the First, after a pause, took a breath of air into the frail senile lungs and said (addressing not as much to the Privy Council as to the eagerly listening crowd under the royal balcony):
"Well done everyone! You all did great!..."
(We will continue to watch). “
Seems Warner’s fangs will be drawn as it’s transferring its heavy military equipment to the Russian army. IDK how that plays out for Wagner operations overseas. It suggests any Wagnerites joining Prigozhin in Belarus will only have small arms.
Assuming few sign up with the regular army the loss of thousands of Russian veterans must be good for Ukraine.
Assuming few sign up with the regular army the loss of thousands of Russian veterans must be good for Ukraine.
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