ComingWinter
Baron
Nipplemelter said:
Do you care to explain this? I voted for Sheep on the start of Day 2, with a LoS to back it up. If you want bandwagoning, start with Llandy, yourself and Vieira.
[Werewolf] Crusade on Castle Mengelberg, (Werewolves Win!)
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Baron
Do you care to explain this? I voted for Sheep on the start of Day 2, with a LoS to back it up. If you want bandwagoning, start with Llandy, yourself and Vieira.
ComingWinter
Baron
Adaham said:
What if this is the other away around? What it if was actually Xardob who was deceived?
Pharaoh Llandy said:
No possibility of a no-lynch with your vote on Sheep because I was going to change my vote (as I did and as I said I would) so that wouldn't happen. And it was not guaranteed that Cado would have been lynched had you not changed your vote; Vieira could have deemed Cado too innocent to lynch and not done it. By effectively making it so that there were equal votes on each person, you were pretty much preventing the chance of a no-lynch.
Speaking of which, how suspicious did you think Sheep actually was? You talked about him in the beginning of the day, but from what I recall, you never seemed too on-board the rest of the day for lynching him.
Yes, leveling the playing field somehow gave me the opportunity to change my mind even though I was nowhere near convinced as Cado's innocent as you were. However, you seemed totally fine on letting Tuckles get lynched despite not seeming to think he was wolfy; why not give Cado the same treatment?
I thought Sheep was a wolf, but then played with the idea that it was too obvious and changed my mind. I was willing to lynch either Avian or Adaham because I wasn't exactly sure of either one, but figured if one is a wolf, then the other would be innocent. I voted for Xardob to try and pressure him into actually doing something other than say "yeah, this guy is a wolf." I voted for Cado because I thought he was a wolf.
Point is, I am never 100% sure of everybody, so I like to keep an open mind so I don't get fixated on believing one scenario all game. I've even been playing with the idea that you are a wolf. Actually, come to think of it, the only person I never thought about as a wolf was Soot, but he could have possibly made it into that camp if he lived longer.
Was never implied.
You talk about me mincing your words.
I thought it was pretty clear that means "I'm going to stop the ****storm so that we can got on with more important topics." Soot's analysis summed it up well enough, so I wasn't going to continue arguing with Cado to make it any more confusing for people to follow. At that point continuing the debacle wasn't going to help anyone out, so there was no reason for it to continue and if anyone wanted to make an opinion of it they could refer to the summary.
ComingWinter said:
Your LoS mainly implicated Adaham (who was your biggest target on Day 1) and Xardob, talked mostly about those two, but then went for Sheep instead.
@CW:
To briefly continue my reply to make one thing clear: I realize you mentioned Sheep with Adaham and Xardob too, but it didn't seem to me like you were as sure of him than Adaham.
To briefly continue my reply to make one thing clear: I realize you mentioned Sheep with Adaham and Xardob too, but it didn't seem to me like you were as sure of him than Adaham.
Also, I won't be able to make the post I promised tonight because I have to go somewhere right now, but I will be rereading the thread tomorrow morning and update my thoughts.
ComingWinter
Baron
Nipplemelter said:
Nipplemelter said:
I honestly wasn't 100% sure of Sheep until Adaham's post here. I had a pretty good hunch that Sheep was a wolf after writing my LoS, and yes, I still consider/considered Adaham a wolf. Given his post above, he just helped me along. After that, Sheep's last laughable LoS pretty much sealed my vote.
So then my next question is: Why vote Sheep so early when you weren't sure until after the fact?
ComingWinter
Baron
Why not? His posts didn't make sense and he basically dropped out of the sky when Sootshade started pressing him.
But if you weren't really sure until Adaham posted, why make the vote so early in the day? He clearly wasn't going to magically appear by pressuring him with the third vote (which almost runs the risk of ending the day early)
ComingWinter
Baron
I wasn't sure of Sheep until he was lynched and his role revealed. I had a strong suspicion when I was putting my LoS together on Day 2 and I went with it. Adaham did nothing but convince me more.
Nipplemelter said:
Nipplemelter said:
So, this sounds to you like the words of a man who's ready to switch his vote? Despite the fact that he, only pages earlier, made a case for lynching one of the main proponents of the wolf-vote, and was currently voting one of the other main proponents of the wolf vote? Despite the fact that the last player to vote was actively posting in the thread and had stated he would vote before deadline?
You should request a name-change to Captain Obvious. I'm serious.
Pharaoh Llandy said:
As stated, I was aware of the chances and voted as I thought best to increase our chances of not lynching an innocent.
I may be a new player, but I'm not an idiot. Please don't try to make out that I am.
No, there was still a chance of a no-lynch if Vieira had failed to vote. Because, as stated by the Sheep voters, there was no chance of them changing their votes. And as stated by the Cal voters, there was no chance of them changing their v—oh ****, one of them did. And that person did it in such a way that even the main guy voting for Cal saw fit to comment on it.
Sure, I will state my opinion for the record once more.
"1) Adaham. 2) Pilgrim. 3) Xardob or Sheep."
And as previously stated, the reason I was still voting Adaham was because 1) I hoped people might change their minds, 2) I consider Adaham-as-wolf a bigger threat than Sheep-as-wolf because Sheep was largely absent and because I can easily imagine Adaham being the type of guy to talk himself out of a tough situation, whereas Sheep didn't seem capable of talking himself out of a wet paper bag.
Because, as I told Xardob all of 5 minutes into Day 2, the majority of the action around the Tuckles vote happened within the last few hours before Deadline. A time when I was in bed. Asleep. Oblivious to Tuckles impending demise.
And even if I hadn't been in bed, asleep, what could I have done? At that stage I wasn't sure about Tuckles, to the extent where I wasn't willing to lynch him. Please see your bolded phrases above:
I was not "totally fine" with Tuckles being lynched. I physically was in bed asleep when it happened. And I'm really sorry that I haven't mastered the fine art of astral projection yet, and that my astral form wouldn't have been able to turn on my PC, type in my password and consciously object to Tuckles being lynched because, y'know, lack of corporeal body. All I could do was express my disappointment after the fact.
Why not give Calo the same treatment? Because the Deadline got shifted by 8 hours to a time frame in which I am actually conscious and don't have to rely on dodgy attempts at astral projection to be ubiquitous. And I was (am) much more convinced of Cal's innocence than I was of Tuckles'.
So, please accept my most humble apology for not being able to do anything about Tuckles because I was unconscious. I can only hope I am soon able to master the art of astral projection so that I can be here to play this game even when I am asleep.
Irrelevant tautology.
Time to get more sure. Why is everyone else able to be sure of things, but not you? Adaham was sure Sheep was innocent. Turns out he was wrong. And he was sure Xardob was innocent. Turns out he was right. But right now you're sitting on the fence and liable to fall into the first side that makes it clear there's going to be a viable lynch. You're basically doing what Xardob accused Pilgrim of doing in his mediocre LoS.
First things first:
I am having difficulties accessing the forum for a few hours now (it's on and off randomly) so this is gonna take a while
Adaham said:
I don't understand how Xardob turning out to be innocent changes Adaham's position. See below.Calodine said:
Even if Xardob had been the seer, it wouldn't have solved the equation involving Adaham, Xardob and Pilgrim (Vieira). He had one night to check the identity of a person: Xardob couldn't have checked both Adaham and Pilgrim (Vieira) to defend one and accuse the other one.
I am having difficulties accessing the forum for a few hours now (it's on and off randomly) so this is gonna take a while
Funny observation: Change all "Xardob"s to "Adaham above and you could almost believe undead Xardob is talking to us .Adaham said:
Why would the wolves kill Xardob instead of me? I asked myself the same question and there are several options to consider that I can think of (these are NOT MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE):
1. As you have said, the wolves thought that he was the seer and they tried to get rid of him. If we tie this option to the 'hunch', this is only valid if Pilgrim is a wolf.
2. Conversely, if Pilgrim (Vieira) is not a wolf, the wolves killed Xardob and they will probably try to cast suspicion on Pilgrim using this. Imagine this: You are a wolf. You notice that Xardob made a comment that can be interpreted as him being a seer. But you know that it's impossible because the person whom he accused is not a packmate of yours. Therefore you can kill Xardob, imply that "wolves killed him since they believed he was the seer when he correctly pointed out a wolf (Pilgrim)".
3. The wolves might have chosen a target unlikely to be defended by a potential GA.
4. Adaham is a wolf and he will try to defend himself by saying "why would I kill my only supporter?"
5. Adaham is a wolf and fears that Xardob's support will fade the next day after so many failures. Nobody wants to see his best buddy turning against himself.
6. Oh you have also said this:
Adaham said:
Sorry to paint an ugly picture for you. Feel free to add other options that I could have missed.
Wait... you didn't believe that Sheep was dead weight yesterday even though I pointed that out many times. Why would they think that Sheep was dead weight while you, an "innocent" was trying so hard to defend the wolf?
Also, wouldn't it be better to sacrifice Cal ("ordinary wolf") instead of the alpha? Since Cal was trying to get Sheep lynched since the first day, lynching Sheep's one of antagonists and pointing out that he was a wolf wouldn't be the worst thing.
Also "they probably decided to keep the better player" doesn't make sense because if there are two wolves on the line it only leaves one wolf to make the decision. Unless you are using the singular gender-neutral form of "they" of course. Granted, this is likely to be an honest mistake but my head hurts when I see this kind of thing.
Why? I mean I understand the scenarios but why do they make sense only if Cal is a wolf?
Right. My analysis of the previous evening and today’s revelations. Last time I split this up into two separate posts for ease of reading and my own sanity. This time I’m going to try to analyse both factors (Sheep Lynch and Xardob Death) in one post for each player, in the hopes it will form some links in my poor sleep-deprived brain.
List is in order of ease in which I’m able to to discern player motives/behaviour. I’ve tried to be as objective as possible.
Ativan
Sheep Lynching: There doesn’t seem to be much to point out here. Ativan has been pushing for a lynch on Sheep since Day 1. He’s stated his case whilst avoiding the personal out-reach programme seemingly favoured by Xardob and others. This speaks pretty well of him, in that he states his case and relies on others to understand his posts and reach the same conclusion without being ‘pushy’ and trying to cajole others into seeing things his way. This does sometimes come across that he’s a bit detached from his opinions, but pushed into it he can argue his point just fine. If he is a wolf, I can’t imagine why he’d park his vote on Sheep and insist on lynching him for 2 days when there are much better targets, especially since Sheep was revealed to be the Alpha.
Xardob Death: If Ativan is a wolf, what would he gain by killing Xardob? Well, Xardob was playing human centipede () to Adaham, who was fairly convinced Ativan was a wolf and had even voted for lynching him. So there is some threat there. But whilst Adaham and Nipple were trying to lynch Ativan, Xardob was pushing for Pilgrim. I don’t doubt Xardob would have voted to lynch Ativan if a couple more votes cropped up, but it seemed Xardob’s primary focus was on (mistakenly) protecting Sheep from the pack-vote he perceived, and in implicating Pilgrim in something (we don’t know what).
Calodine
Sheep Lynching: Similar to Ativan, Calodine parked his Sheep-vote early on and refused to move it even when Adaham tried throwing CW in front of him as a way of saving himself. By this stage, Cal had already stated more than once that he had suspicions about CW, so it would have been pretty easy for him to switch his vote to her as a way of getting Adaham/Xardob/Nipple off his back. But he didn’t. He stuck with Sheep because he was more sure of Sheep. Possibly because he himself was the victim of Sheep’s attempted smear-campaign. Regardless of his reasoning, his actions earn him some trust & respect. He’s shown that he’s not willing to throw another player to the wolves (pardon the expression) to save his own hide.
Xardob Death: Again, the only benefit I can see from Xardob’s death if Cal is a wolf, is that Xardob was voting for Cal, and might choose to do so again today. But given that Xardob was making a case for Pilgrim, there might be less of a threat there than initially seems. Xardob made a firm attempt to get people to switch to Pilgrim, so I think Cal wasn’t necessarily highest on his suspicion list, it’s just that Cal seemed a more likely lynch candidate as the day progressed and others refused to change their votes.
ComingWinter
Sheep Lynching: Probably sounding like a broken record again, but she voted Sheep early and stuck to her guns. I know that (like me) there was somebody else (Adaham) that she would have liked to have seen lynched just as much as Sheep, but she stated at least once that Sheep made a blatant ****-up and seemed the more likely one to be lynched. Again, she hasn’t been ‘pushy’ with her reasoning about Sheep, seeming instead to trust that others would come around on their own.
Xardob Death: I can’t remember if Xardob ever voted for CW as a lynch, but I know she’s had a few arguments with him. That doesn’t say very much, though; all of the remaining players except Adaham have had some arguments (or at least, exchanges which could be characterised as heated) with Xardob, myself included. If she is a wolf and playing a very smart game, I can imagine that she’d off Xardob to possibly make it appear that Adaham was a wolf and killing his BFF to make it look like he’d been framed… but I’m not sure if that sounds overly convoluted. In some ways, it wouldn’t make sense for CW to kill Xardob if she is a wolf. One of her earlier arguments was that Soot was killed on Night 1 by the people he was gunning for. Those people were Xardob and Adaham. If anything, this Xardob-kill sorta invalidates that whole line of reasoning; clearly Soot was not killed by Xardob, because Xardob turned out to be innocent.
I’m not as confident about CW as I am Ativan & Cal, but short of her doing something undeniably furry, I’m not likely to lynch her any time soon.
Vieira
Sheep Lynching: I’m a little loathe to put Vieira at this position on my list, because I thought the guy he replaced was shadier than a Bedouin tent on a hot summer day, but I’m attempting to be objective here. Despite his too-late vote, I do believe it was his intention to lynch Sheep. I think he just got caught up in writing his explanation and isn’t very good at obeying deadlines (which could be a future problem for the village if he’s innocent). I suspect if Pilgrim had been around to vote, he would have voted Calodine, because I believed he was a wolf, but Vieira’s Sheep lynch makes me wonder. If he is a wolf, then killing his own Alpha seems like a pretty foolish thing to do, especially since he could have jumped on the Cal vote and then later claimed “Oh sorry guys, I had to read the thread very quickly and didn’t catch all the subtle nuances” or whatever. Had Vieira voted Cal and Cal turned out to be innocent, I think people would have been gunning more for Sheep, Adaham, Xardob and Nipple, than they would have been for the replacement. That said, the last five minutes of the last Day were the most confusing and WTF-inducing for me. I’m still trying to get my head around it all. So, I’m not excluding the possibility that Vieira might be a wolf. But if he is, he either made a really dumb move, or is playing a game too smart for me to comprehend right now.
Xardob Death: Since Xardob was making a case against Pilgrim (albeit, on a hunch) it stands to reason that Vieira has the most to gain from Xardob’s death. Xardob dying like he did kinda points a big fat finger of blame at Vieira… but I can’t shake the feeling that it would’ve been easier for Vieira to jump on the Cal vote and sit back and watch all the other players take the fall for that, than to kill his own pack-mate and then kill the guy who was making a solid case against him. Chances are, if Cal had died last night, the rest of the village would have gone after Sheep (Ativan, Cal) or Adaham (me, possibly CW?) and Vieira might have coasted through the game especially since any case Xardob had against Pilgrim/Vieira could have flown right out the window if Cal had proven innocent.
So, I’m not sure what to think. Pilgrim was #2 on my lynch list, but like I’ve said in previous posts, I feel like I’d judged one or two people too quickly. Pilgrim’s posts were often full of vitriol, but I don’t know whether that was his usual style, or whether something IRL was affecting him (ejnomad, did Pilgrim give any reason as to *why* he wanted to be replaced?) or whether he was just having a crap game. I’d like to be a little more open towards Vieira’s posts/ideas, but he’s got a lot of damage control to do before he gets anything approaching trust from me.
Nipplemelter
Sheep Lynching: I seriously have no idea what to think. After running around for the whole of Day 2 trying to get everybody else except Sheep lynched, he changes his vote at literally the last second to ensure a wolf kill. His previous votes (in reverse chronological order) are Calodine, Ativan and Xardob. I could see an attempt to lynch Cal/Ativan as an attempt to draw votes away from Sheep (who in this scenario would be his pack-mate) and I can’t say I find his reasons for changing his vote at the last minute to be particularly believable. A last-minute change to Sheep might make Nipple look like an undecided/confused villager, and extend his own life span. Even if he’s an innocent, I just can’t find a reason for him to switch his vote so many times no matter how I try to look at it. This inability to settle on one suspect has me worried more than anything, because as a wolf he could be hedging his bets and trying to leave all his bases covered, but as a villager he is being wildly unpredictable and illogical. I’m fine with people rocking the boat a little, but not capsizing it completely.
Xardob Death: I don’t recall Xardob being particularly suspicious of Nipple, so if Nipple was a wolf then this wouldn’t make sense as a self-defence kill. The only reason I could see for Nipple to kill Xardob, would be to either deflect attention away from himself, or put the attention on somebody else. I’m still considering the different repercussions so don’t have anything more solid than this at the moment, but I can’t help notice that Nipple’s last-minute defection coupled with Xardob’s death leaves Adaham alone and exposed on the ‘vote Cal’ side of the camp. Again, I’m still considering the implications of this. One thing I do know is that Nipple seems to be good at leaving himself with fall-back plans in case his lynch attempts fail. And that feels a little too convenient to me.
Adaham
Sheep Lynching: Or in this case, lack of Sheep Lynching. Despite the fact that he was completely wrong about Sheep, Adaham stuck to his decision to not join the ‘bandwagon’ so he gets some kudos points from me for that. Still, I don’t know whether that’s because he was being a stubborn villager or a clever wolf. If he is a wolf, then sticking with his vote on Cal whilst his pack-mate goes after Sheep does seem like a credible way of distancing themselves and sowing a bit of confusion amongst the rest of the village, but I don’t know whether sacrificing Sheep would have been worth it since a lynched innocent on Day 2 would mean we’d be in the endgame right about now.
Xardob Death: If Adaham is a wolf, then killing off his ‘follower’ could be used as a way of trying to make himself look more innocent in the wake of Sheep’s death. This is the only reason I could think of for Adaham to kill Xardob. Having a follower willing to give you their vote sounds like a useful thing, but maybe by the end of the Day, Xardob had outlived his usefulness. Again, as with Nipple, I’m still somewhat confused. But because I like to be consistent and because other than Nipple I don’t have any better suspects right now…
vote Adaham
I know this is a poor analysis and despite my attempts to remain objective/impartial it’s chock full of gut-feelings and hypothetical scenarios (some of which probably conflict quite a bit), but bob dammit I’m tired and wanted to get this out of the way because I get the feeling there’s going to be another 10 pages of convo to take into consideration by the time weekend is over.
List is in order of ease in which I’m able to to discern player motives/behaviour. I’ve tried to be as objective as possible.
Ativan
Sheep Lynching: There doesn’t seem to be much to point out here. Ativan has been pushing for a lynch on Sheep since Day 1. He’s stated his case whilst avoiding the personal out-reach programme seemingly favoured by Xardob and others. This speaks pretty well of him, in that he states his case and relies on others to understand his posts and reach the same conclusion without being ‘pushy’ and trying to cajole others into seeing things his way. This does sometimes come across that he’s a bit detached from his opinions, but pushed into it he can argue his point just fine. If he is a wolf, I can’t imagine why he’d park his vote on Sheep and insist on lynching him for 2 days when there are much better targets, especially since Sheep was revealed to be the Alpha.
Xardob Death: If Ativan is a wolf, what would he gain by killing Xardob? Well, Xardob was playing human centipede (
) to Adaham, who was fairly convinced Ativan was a wolf and had even voted for lynching him. So there is some threat there. But whilst Adaham and Nipple were trying to lynch Ativan, Xardob was pushing for Pilgrim. I don’t doubt Xardob would have voted to lynch Ativan if a couple more votes cropped up, but it seemed Xardob’s primary focus was on (mistakenly) protecting Sheep from the pack-vote he perceived, and in implicating Pilgrim in something (we don’t know what).Calodine
Sheep Lynching: Similar to Ativan, Calodine parked his Sheep-vote early on and refused to move it even when Adaham tried throwing CW in front of him as a way of saving himself. By this stage, Cal had already stated more than once that he had suspicions about CW, so it would have been pretty easy for him to switch his vote to her as a way of getting Adaham/Xardob/Nipple off his back. But he didn’t. He stuck with Sheep because he was more sure of Sheep. Possibly because he himself was the victim of Sheep’s attempted smear-campaign. Regardless of his reasoning, his actions earn him some trust & respect. He’s shown that he’s not willing to throw another player to the wolves (pardon the expression) to save his own hide.
Xardob Death: Again, the only benefit I can see from Xardob’s death if Cal is a wolf, is that Xardob was voting for Cal, and might choose to do so again today. But given that Xardob was making a case for Pilgrim, there might be less of a threat there than initially seems. Xardob made a firm attempt to get people to switch to Pilgrim, so I think Cal wasn’t necessarily highest on his suspicion list, it’s just that Cal seemed a more likely lynch candidate as the day progressed and others refused to change their votes.
ComingWinter
Sheep Lynching: Probably sounding like a broken record again, but she voted Sheep early and stuck to her guns. I know that (like me) there was somebody else (Adaham) that she would have liked to have seen lynched just as much as Sheep, but she stated at least once that Sheep made a blatant ****-up and seemed the more likely one to be lynched. Again, she hasn’t been ‘pushy’ with her reasoning about Sheep, seeming instead to trust that others would come around on their own.
Xardob Death: I can’t remember if Xardob ever voted for CW as a lynch, but I know she’s had a few arguments with him. That doesn’t say very much, though; all of the remaining players except Adaham have had some arguments (or at least, exchanges which could be characterised as heated) with Xardob, myself included. If she is a wolf and playing a very smart game, I can imagine that she’d off Xardob to possibly make it appear that Adaham was a wolf and killing his BFF to make it look like he’d been framed… but I’m not sure if that sounds overly convoluted. In some ways, it wouldn’t make sense for CW to kill Xardob if she is a wolf. One of her earlier arguments was that Soot was killed on Night 1 by the people he was gunning for. Those people were Xardob and Adaham. If anything, this Xardob-kill sorta invalidates that whole line of reasoning; clearly Soot was not killed by Xardob, because Xardob turned out to be innocent.
I’m not as confident about CW as I am Ativan & Cal, but short of her doing something undeniably furry, I’m not likely to lynch her any time soon.
Vieira
Sheep Lynching: I’m a little loathe to put Vieira at this position on my list, because I thought the guy he replaced was shadier than a Bedouin tent on a hot summer day, but I’m attempting to be objective here. Despite his too-late vote, I do believe it was his intention to lynch Sheep. I think he just got caught up in writing his explanation and isn’t very good at obeying deadlines (which could be a future problem for the village if he’s innocent). I suspect if Pilgrim had been around to vote, he would have voted Calodine, because I believed he was a wolf, but Vieira’s Sheep lynch makes me wonder. If he is a wolf, then killing his own Alpha seems like a pretty foolish thing to do, especially since he could have jumped on the Cal vote and then later claimed “Oh sorry guys, I had to read the thread very quickly and didn’t catch all the subtle nuances” or whatever. Had Vieira voted Cal and Cal turned out to be innocent, I think people would have been gunning more for Sheep, Adaham, Xardob and Nipple, than they would have been for the replacement. That said, the last five minutes of the last Day were the most confusing and WTF-inducing for me. I’m still trying to get my head around it all. So, I’m not excluding the possibility that Vieira might be a wolf. But if he is, he either made a really dumb move, or is playing a game too smart for me to comprehend right now.
Xardob Death: Since Xardob was making a case against Pilgrim (albeit, on a hunch) it stands to reason that Vieira has the most to gain from Xardob’s death. Xardob dying like he did kinda points a big fat finger of blame at Vieira… but I can’t shake the feeling that it would’ve been easier for Vieira to jump on the Cal vote and sit back and watch all the other players take the fall for that, than to kill his own pack-mate and then kill the guy who was making a solid case against him. Chances are, if Cal had died last night, the rest of the village would have gone after Sheep (Ativan, Cal) or Adaham (me, possibly CW?) and Vieira might have coasted through the game especially since any case Xardob had against Pilgrim/Vieira could have flown right out the window if Cal had proven innocent.
So, I’m not sure what to think. Pilgrim was #2 on my lynch list, but like I’ve said in previous posts, I feel like I’d judged one or two people too quickly. Pilgrim’s posts were often full of vitriol, but I don’t know whether that was his usual style, or whether something IRL was affecting him (ejnomad, did Pilgrim give any reason as to *why* he wanted to be replaced?) or whether he was just having a crap game. I’d like to be a little more open towards Vieira’s posts/ideas, but he’s got a lot of damage control to do before he gets anything approaching trust from me.
Nipplemelter
Sheep Lynching: I seriously have no idea what to think. After running around for the whole of Day 2 trying to get everybody else except Sheep lynched, he changes his vote at literally the last second to ensure a wolf kill. His previous votes (in reverse chronological order) are Calodine, Ativan and Xardob. I could see an attempt to lynch Cal/Ativan as an attempt to draw votes away from Sheep (who in this scenario would be his pack-mate) and I can’t say I find his reasons for changing his vote at the last minute to be particularly believable. A last-minute change to Sheep might make Nipple look like an undecided/confused villager, and extend his own life span. Even if he’s an innocent, I just can’t find a reason for him to switch his vote so many times no matter how I try to look at it. This inability to settle on one suspect has me worried more than anything, because as a wolf he could be hedging his bets and trying to leave all his bases covered, but as a villager he is being wildly unpredictable and illogical. I’m fine with people rocking the boat a little, but not capsizing it completely.
Xardob Death: I don’t recall Xardob being particularly suspicious of Nipple, so if Nipple was a wolf then this wouldn’t make sense as a self-defence kill. The only reason I could see for Nipple to kill Xardob, would be to either deflect attention away from himself, or put the attention on somebody else. I’m still considering the different repercussions so don’t have anything more solid than this at the moment, but I can’t help notice that Nipple’s last-minute defection coupled with Xardob’s death leaves Adaham alone and exposed on the ‘vote Cal’ side of the camp. Again, I’m still considering the implications of this. One thing I do know is that Nipple seems to be good at leaving himself with fall-back plans in case his lynch attempts fail. And that feels a little too convenient to me.
Adaham
Sheep Lynching: Or in this case, lack of Sheep Lynching. Despite the fact that he was completely wrong about Sheep, Adaham stuck to his decision to not join the ‘bandwagon’ so he gets some kudos points from me for that. Still, I don’t know whether that’s because he was being a stubborn villager or a clever wolf. If he is a wolf, then sticking with his vote on Cal whilst his pack-mate goes after Sheep does seem like a credible way of distancing themselves and sowing a bit of confusion amongst the rest of the village, but I don’t know whether sacrificing Sheep would have been worth it since a lynched innocent on Day 2 would mean we’d be in the endgame right about now.
Xardob Death: If Adaham is a wolf, then killing off his ‘follower’ could be used as a way of trying to make himself look more innocent in the wake of Sheep’s death. This is the only reason I could think of for Adaham to kill Xardob. Having a follower willing to give you their vote sounds like a useful thing, but maybe by the end of the Day, Xardob had outlived his usefulness. Again, as with Nipple, I’m still somewhat confused. But because I like to be consistent and because other than Nipple I don’t have any better suspects right now…
vote Adaham
I know this is a poor analysis and despite my attempts to remain objective/impartial it’s chock full of gut-feelings and hypothetical scenarios (some of which probably conflict quite a bit), but bob dammit I’m tired and wanted to get this out of the way because I get the feeling there’s going to be another 10 pages of convo to take into consideration by the time weekend is over.
This has taken me longer than it should have...
Any particular reason? You stated yourself that I didn't drop any indication (I did once, actually, but I guess it wasn't clear when I said it, and I wasn't 100% sure at the time either so it doesn't really count) so what made you think I was going to drop a vote on you?
I'd be curious to hear which you believe is most likely to be true, and how likely you feel it to be true.
While you made some pretty decent arguments, I can't say I'm overly convinced about Calodine being wolfish (hence my vote choice on Day 2). The actions during the night have certainly cast yourself in a bit of a suspicious light, but I can't say that I've felt you have played particularly suspiciously (from what I gathered from my read). Then again, I guess these views are from hindsight (maybe my gut would have said different had I been playing earlier).
I wouldn't disagree entirely with your suspicions though - I'm a little bit more suspicious of Nipples now. Though he has been playing rather erratically the entire game (from what I gather from my readings). I might have a look back and see if I can find anything particularly incriminating.
Darn. That took way too long. Need to turn of internet and stuff, so I'll see if I can find more to talk about on the morrow.
In-Post EDIT: Ninjlandy
Calodine said:
Any particular reason? You stated yourself that I didn't drop any indication (I did once, actually, but I guess it wasn't clear when I said it, and I wasn't 100% sure at the time either so it doesn't really count) so what made you think I was going to drop a vote on you?
Nipplemelter said:
I'd be curious to hear which you believe is most likely to be true, and how likely you feel it to be true.
Adaham said:
While you made some pretty decent arguments, I can't say I'm overly convinced about Calodine being wolfish (hence my vote choice on Day 2). The actions during the night have certainly cast yourself in a bit of a suspicious light, but I can't say that I've felt you have played particularly suspiciously (from what I gathered from my read). Then again, I guess these views are from hindsight (maybe my gut would have said different had I been playing earlier).
I wouldn't disagree entirely with your suspicions though - I'm a little bit more suspicious of Nipples now. Though he has been playing rather erratically the entire game (from what I gather from my readings). I might have a look back and see if I can find anything particularly incriminating.
Darn. That took way too long. Need to turn of internet and stuff, so I'll see if I can find more to talk about on the morrow.
In-Post EDIT: Ninjlandy
ComingWinter
Baron
I think you're asking the wrong question Llandy. The obvious answer is the Xardob's death would be favorable to the wolves because they are the only ones that would know that. Xardob was really on no ones radar and his LoS weren't that really informative.
The only answer that I can come up with is some wolf thought that Xardob was the seer. And got scared. The wolves knew he was innocent but he wasn't really helping the village.
Anyway I needed to post this before my thoughts left me, so I will probably provide quotes to back this up when I get home.
The only answer that I can come up with is some wolf thought that Xardob was the seer. And got scared. The wolves knew he was innocent but he wasn't really helping the village.
Anyway I needed to post this before my thoughts left me, so I will probably provide quotes to back this up when I get home.
ComingWinter
Baron
So, hopefully this clarifies the above post a bit more.
So this makes sense. It seems far out - but to me- it fits.
He says this which pretty much negates any use to the village he could have been. He was useful to the wolves by spreading discord and causing the village to vote. So it would make sense for the wolves to keep him around because he was more useful to them alive than dead. So the next step for me would be to figure out who followed him in his voting.
Calodine said:
So this makes sense. It seems far out - but to me- it fits.
Xardob said:
He says this which pretty much negates any use to the village he could have been. He was useful to the wolves by spreading discord and causing the village to vote. So it would make sense for the wolves to keep him around because he was more useful to them alive than dead. So the next step for me would be to figure out who followed him in his voting.
ComingWinter
Baron
ComingWinter said:
Sorry, forum update messed my post up.
Nipple 1:
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Llandy 1:
Let's put it into another perspective: EVERYBODY must know, that at least one of the wolves was voting for Sheep yesterday. If you decide to lynch me today - which I think is very likely with people like CW around - you'll know tomorrow what I know today, namely that it was two wolves who voted for Sheep yesterday. Now if you exclude Ativan, Cal and CW from that list, that leaves you (Llandy), Nipple and Vieira as the remaining candidates. Since I don't think you're going to accuse yourself, that must mean that by tomorrow you'll have to be sure that Nipple and Vieira are the last remaining wolves.
Tell me, if Vieira and Nipple are wolves...WHY the hell would they decide in the last moment of the day to both vote off their Alpha-packie? For no reason! Nipple had his vote on Cal explained and Vieira just came in and nobody was going to blame him for any outcome whatsoever. But if they would have voted Cal and he turned out innocent, we'd be at a lynch-or-lose right now. And with me still around, they would have had pretty good chances of sealing the deal today. So WHY on earth would they have done that?
With all due respect, Llandy, it's time for you to think out of the box. I'm not gonna feed you scenarios including me as a wolf, as I don't see the point in making up something that I know is not true. I'm not even begging not to vote me, as I fully expect that people will only consider what I said when I'm out of the way. But like you begged Nipple to take his vote down yesterday, I'm begging you to hypothetically think about a "what-if" scenario in which I am innocent. Tomorrow you'll have to think about this, too, only with the added pressure of a lynch-or-lose and the scales tipped in favor of the wolves.
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CW 1:
It's funny you don't doubt your case for one second, even though Xardob's death has made it clear that Soot wasn't as omnipotent as you put it. Also, you seem to completely ignore Xardob's suspicions, as compared to Soot's. Selective perception par excellence.
That statement was just an explanation of my train of thought over the last days. Maybe somebody will find it interesting tomorrow, but seeing as this is a group of wolves filled with a lot of innocents with tunnel vision, I doubt this is going to be the case.
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Nipple 2:
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CW 2:
Fact is, you acted all the time as if you knew everything - or to be more precise, as if Soot knew everything and you borrowed his suspicions.
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Llandy 2:
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Ativan:
In fact, I haven't brought up Xardob's innocence as a defense for myself at all, yet I'm still accused of it (by Ativan and CW). The fact it's the two of you bringing this up, sheds a telling light on you.
7. The wolves were hoping to net the seer when going after Xardob, but as a positive side-effect, they leave Adaham even more isolated in the group (just in case Xardob and Adaham would still find themselves agreeing with each other) and can come up with scenarios in which they blame Adaham for Xardob's death.
Since you're so good at finding quotes of me from pages back, I hope you'll remember to quote this one tomorrow.
That aside, I doubt there is actually any specials around (if they were, I probably would have been checked on one of the first two nights and somebody would have at least made an indication of my innocence). I think the wolves thought about this, too. But most importantly, what good is an Alpha if he doesn't do jack**** to at least try to stay alive?
So if I go into Mr. Spock-mode, that means...if you think Cal is innocent, so have to be Nipple and Vieira. If you think either Nipple or Vieira is a wolf, so has to be Cal. Also, Nipple and Vieira can not be packmates of each other (unless they have a shared IQ of a potatoe). This is something rather important, also for Llandy.
So the only possibility for either Nipple or Vieira being a wolf is if Calodine is a wolf, too, and they (one of them) were caught in a choice between two packmates. I think this is as logical as it gets and if you don't see this, then I'm at a loss.
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Llandy 3:
Regarding your LoS:
Even though you found some redeeming features for me, you still can only come up with voting me. Once more, I urge you to think about other possibilities, as there isn't much that'll come up regarding my person as the day goes on. In fact, I'm pretty sure you, CW and Ativan will be very willing to lynch me, so it shouldn't be too hard to find somebody else at the end of the day to join the cause. That's more or less a settled thing and I believe everybody who still tries to make a case in that direction (I'm looking at you Ativan) is consciously avoiding talking about the one (actually two) traitor(s) amongst those that voted Sheep yesterday. This is what you should be discussing today! You'll need that insight tomorrow when it's lynch-or-lose.
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Adaham:
The latest postings of Ativan have tipped my opinion again, and I'm more convinced of his guilt again. Fact is, the wolves were willing to throw Sheep "under the bus" (quote Cal) as they considered him "dead weight" (quote Ativan). At least one of those wolves has made "a case" early on and parked his vote. Forgive me that I don't include scenarios that have me lined up as a wolf, but since Nipple or Vieira can only be wolves if Cal is as well, it means logically that if Cal is innocent, two wolves must be among Ativan, CW and Llandy. So one of those, that made "a case" against Sheep (Ativan, Cal, CW) is a certain wolf. And since it's better to get kudos for lynching your packie, than to be involved in dubious scenarios, I'm leaning now more towards Ativan and CW being in cahoots. Their attempts to discredit me seem to be the most orchestrated right now, so my money is on them being the remaining two wolves.
Additional gut-bonus-feeling: Ativan is enjoying a bit too much the fact that he was right, as opposed to me. If he was a villager, I think he'd focus more on the task at hand, but the way he seemed to be enjoying laughing in my face tells me something is off. Granted, Cal did the same, but - sorry, nothing personal - that was more along the lines of what I would expect from Cal than from Ativan.
Unfortunately, I'm not out of the equation yet and have no way to proof my innocence except by death, so it means you'll have to make the call of which scenario is more likely tomorrow at lynch-or-lose. Though the wisest choice would probably be to lynch Cal today, because if he's innocent, it would also clear Nipple and Vieira and the village would be left with a 2/3rd chance of nailing a wolf between Ativan/CW/Llandy.
But that is moot because I'm still around, so the pressure will be up tomorrow.
Well, I think we could argue about this for a long time without reaching a conclusion. If I hadn't brought up Ativan (who was pretty much on nobody's radar at that time), who knows if you had come up with your case. The fact I didn't vote him before you, was mostly because I was waiting for anybody to make a move into the direction of one of the three people I proposed (Ativan, Cal or CW). By voting one of them first, I would have made a "limiting" choice, so I wanted to know which ones had the highest chance of being lynched.Nipplemelter said:
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Llandy 1:
Let's say credit goes to Ativan, and for somebody like him, that might still not be enough to fully trust him. But the other two...? You guys are making fun of Xardob being the "human centipede", but even though those three were among the first to vote, Cal and CW were not really very active in it.Pharaoh Llandy said:
Let's put it into another perspective: EVERYBODY must know, that at least one of the wolves was voting for Sheep yesterday. If you decide to lynch me today - which I think is very likely with people like CW around - you'll know tomorrow what I know today, namely that it was two wolves who voted for Sheep yesterday. Now if you exclude Ativan, Cal and CW from that list, that leaves you (Llandy), Nipple and Vieira as the remaining candidates. Since I don't think you're going to accuse yourself, that must mean that by tomorrow you'll have to be sure that Nipple and Vieira are the last remaining wolves.
Tell me, if Vieira and Nipple are wolves...WHY the hell would they decide in the last moment of the day to both vote off their Alpha-packie? For no reason! Nipple had his vote on Cal explained and Vieira just came in and nobody was going to blame him for any outcome whatsoever. But if they would have voted Cal and he turned out innocent, we'd be at a lynch-or-lose right now. And with me still around, they would have had pretty good chances of sealing the deal today. So WHY on earth would they have done that?
With all due respect, Llandy, it's time for you to think out of the box. I'm not gonna feed you scenarios including me as a wolf, as I don't see the point in making up something that I know is not true. I'm not even begging not to vote me, as I fully expect that people will only consider what I said when I'm out of the way. But like you begged Nipple to take his vote down yesterday, I'm begging you to hypothetically think about a "what-if" scenario in which I am innocent. Tomorrow you'll have to think about this, too, only with the added pressure of a lynch-or-lose and the scales tipped in favor of the wolves.
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CW 1:
Man, you're such a know-it-all. I can't be bothered to look up your LoS, but it's probably a lot of "Adaham is bad and ridiculous", spiced up with a bit of "Soot said so".ComingWinter said:
It's funny you don't doubt your case for one second, even though Xardob's death has made it clear that Soot wasn't as omnipotent as you put it. Also, you seem to completely ignore Xardob's suspicions, as compared to Soot's. Selective perception par excellence.
Listen, don't worry, you'll get your way and I'll be lynched today, there's little doubt about that. But I hope people do take note how you willing try to miss every single point I'm trying to make. First off, I fully expect Xardob would have doubted my allegiance after the result with Sheep, but since I'm not you, I don't speculate so much about the thoughts and wishes of dead players to back up my own thoughts.ComingWinter said:
That statement was just an explanation of my train of thought over the last days. Maybe somebody will find it interesting tomorrow, but seeing as this is a group of wolves filled with a lot of innocents with tunnel vision, I doubt this is going to be the case.
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Nipple 2:
QFT.Nipplemelter said:
There you go, just what I expected (thanks for looking it up). So tell me CW, how do you feel about your own scumhunting now that you've been so utterly wrong about Xardob?
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CW 2:
You see, it's exactly this kind of crap that makes me suspect you so much, and I hope people seriously consider it when I'm dead tomorrow.ComingWinter said:
Nice retreat. Are you going to come up with similar stuff when I'm dead tomorrow? That you actually weren't so sure about me until [insert innocent] convinced you?ComingWinter said:
Fact is, you acted all the time as if you knew everything - or to be more precise, as if Soot knew everything and you borrowed his suspicions.
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Llandy 2:
To be honest, I can see where Nipple is coming from. Sure, he could be avoiding to stick his neck out, but he could just as well be careful. Right now, the overly sure people are more suspicious to me than the ones who doubt. And yes, I know this might be hypocrisy considering the fact I claimed to be "sure" of Sheep's and Xardob's innocence. Actually, I doubt I even used that expression ("sure"), it was probably more that I just didn't believe the case and wasn't convinced. If I'm totally honest, I still think the case wasn't as strong as it's made out to be, but hey...it netted a wolf, so I'm not complaining.Pharaoh Llandy said:
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Ativan:
Similar to CW, it's this kind of things that makes me doubt your innocence again. If you suspect me, say so, but it's not like there's a lack of lynch-Adaham sentiment around, so you can keep your subtleties for yourself. For the rest, I explained my post already above. And yes, I fully expect Xardob to have doubted me. And yes, I didn't talk about Xardob's thoughts about me because I don't think it is helpful to speculate on a dead players thoughts.Ativan said:
In fact, I haven't brought up Xardob's innocence as a defense for myself at all, yet I'm still accused of it (by Ativan and CW). The fact it's the two of you bringing this up, sheds a telling light on you.
I don't see how that quote of mine is painting an "ugly picture" for me, but the context is quite different from the situation here. Anyway, the first two options are basically what I had said already. Option Nr. 3 is a possibility, though not very likely (especially if the possibility of Xardob being the seer was up in the air, he might have been the most likely to be protected that night). Nr. 4 & 5 is the obvious accusation, but as you might have noted, I'm not doing you the favor of going down that road. Instead I might add the following:
7. The wolves were hoping to net the seer when going after Xardob, but as a positive side-effect, they leave Adaham even more isolated in the group (just in case Xardob and Adaham would still find themselves agreeing with each other) and can come up with scenarios in which they blame Adaham for Xardob's death.
Since you're so good at finding quotes of me from pages back, I hope you'll remember to quote this one tomorrow.
If you were really so innocent yourself, you'd understand that people can mistakes and change their opinion. Besides that, this is also out of context. I was talking out of the perspective of a potential Nipple/Vieira wolf having the choice between packie Sheep and packie Cal. But it's actually funny that you have used that exact same expression yesterday - long before knowing of Sheep's guilt - already. It's a pity I can't prove it, but this really slipped my mind and as such I find it funny you bring it up, because it doesn't make you look better (though you probably don't care, as nobody believes me anyway).
As I explained, the idea was a choice between "better role" and "better player". Since you yourself considered Sheep to be "dead weight", how would you have a chosen as a wolf?
That aside, I doubt there is actually any specials around (if they were, I probably would have been checked on one of the first two nights and somebody would have at least made an indication of my innocence). I think the wolves thought about this, too. But most importantly, what good is an Alpha if he doesn't do jack**** to at least try to stay alive?
Sorry, I sometimes mix these things...English ain't my mother-tongue either. So yes, what I meant is, that if Sheep and Cal are on the line, one of Nipple/Vieira could be the third wolf. And to continue that thought...if Cal is not a wolf, I see no reason for either Nipple or Vieira to sacrifice their Alpha for an innocent and forfeit a lynch-or-lose the next day (in which I'd probably be the next victim).
So if I go into Mr. Spock-mode, that means...if you think Cal is innocent, so have to be Nipple and Vieira. If you think either Nipple or Vieira is a wolf, so has to be Cal. Also, Nipple and Vieira can not be packmates of each other (unless they have a shared IQ of a potatoe). This is something rather important, also for Llandy.
As I've just talked about it - and I think it's the most important thing to notice now - I'll explain it again: Neither Nipple or Vieira were going to get the major part of the blame for a mislynch yesterday. If Cal turned out innocent, Xardob and I were going to be the most scrutinized for it. Nipple might have taken a bit of Flak for it, but since Llandy and CW were very dedicated to get my lynched already, it shouldn't have been too hard to lynch me today and seal the deal. So by voting for their own Alpha instead of an innocent, they not only sacrificed their Alpha, they also gave up an easy chance of ending the game today. Who knows if another great opportunity like this would have come at a later stage? What if a seer figures one of them out, suddenly they could be left with only one wolf left. As a general rule, you don't give up on an easy option to win the game to go a more devious route. And it's not like the whole "scoring brownie points" thing worked out well for Nipple.
So the only possibility for either Nipple or Vieira being a wolf is if Calodine is a wolf, too, and they (one of them) were caught in a choice between two packmates. I think this is as logical as it gets and if you don't see this, then I'm at a loss.
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Llandy 3:
Regarding your LoS:
Even though you found some redeeming features for me, you still can only come up with voting me. Once more, I urge you to think about other possibilities, as there isn't much that'll come up regarding my person as the day goes on. In fact, I'm pretty sure you, CW and Ativan will be very willing to lynch me, so it shouldn't be too hard to find somebody else at the end of the day to join the cause. That's more or less a settled thing and I believe everybody who still tries to make a case in that direction (I'm looking at you Ativan) is consciously avoiding talking about the one (actually two) traitor(s) amongst those that voted Sheep yesterday. This is what you should be discussing today! You'll need that insight tomorrow when it's lynch-or-lose.
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Adaham:
The latest postings of Ativan have tipped my opinion again, and I'm more convinced of his guilt again. Fact is, the wolves were willing to throw Sheep "under the bus" (quote Cal) as they considered him "dead weight" (quote Ativan). At least one of those wolves has made "a case" early on and parked his vote. Forgive me that I don't include scenarios that have me lined up as a wolf, but since Nipple or Vieira can only be wolves if Cal is as well, it means logically that if Cal is innocent, two wolves must be among Ativan, CW and Llandy. So one of those, that made "a case" against Sheep (Ativan, Cal, CW) is a certain wolf. And since it's better to get kudos for lynching your packie, than to be involved in dubious scenarios, I'm leaning now more towards Ativan and CW being in cahoots. Their attempts to discredit me seem to be the most orchestrated right now, so my money is on them being the remaining two wolves.
Additional gut-bonus-feeling: Ativan is enjoying a bit too much the fact that he was right, as opposed to me. If he was a villager, I think he'd focus more on the task at hand, but the way he seemed to be enjoying laughing in my face tells me something is off. Granted, Cal did the same, but - sorry, nothing personal - that was more along the lines of what I would expect from Cal than from Ativan.
Unfortunately, I'm not out of the equation yet and have no way to proof my innocence except by death, so it means you'll have to make the call of which scenario is more likely tomorrow at lynch-or-lose. Though the wisest choice would probably be to lynch Cal today, because if he's innocent, it would also clear Nipple and Vieira and the village would be left with a 2/3rd chance of nailing a wolf between Ativan/CW/Llandy.
But that is moot because I'm still around, so the pressure will be up tomorrow.
Pharaoh Llandy said:
Leaning towards innocent does not mean "I think he is innocent enough to not switch my vote over."
And yet, he technically posted 4 seconds after the deadline. Even though he was in the thread, none of us have any way of 100% knowing that he would post in time.
You seemed to be sure that he was going to vote though.
First off, I never said I wasn't going to switch my vote. Second, of course Adaham would be confused; he probably thought he had control over Xardob, and when I went the way he didn't want, was baffled.
Gotcha. I was asking because you never really talked about Sheep, and since Xardob was all over the place in your mind, didn't know where Sheep stood after your initial LoS.
You better work on that.
I wasn't knocking on your for doing nothing whilst alseep, but because my timeline is different than yours, just wanted to know what was going on in that situation.
Maybe I am more about people than I actually come off as. Acting like I'm constantly on the fence has occasionally has it's benefits. Granted, I have been more unsure in this game than in previous games, but if the Pharaoh wishes, I can be more transparent about my feelings.
Adaham just posted. I'll read it soon.
