Why does food price inflate in the later game? Starvation seemingly much more commonplace (day 2000+)

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I am day 2k and 1 unit of grain is well 30 denars now in some towns. Is this because of denar inflation or super high demand? Grain producing villages being raided too much maybe?

Possibly unrelated consequence but I've noticed starvation seem to be a much more significant issue for armies now. -- are these related?

Anyone else seeing similar effects in the economy in the later game?
 
I am day 2k and 1 unit of grain is well 30 denars now in some towns. Is this because of denar inflation or super high demand? Grain producing villages being raided too much maybe?

Possibly unrelated consequence but I've noticed starvation seem to be a much more significant issue for armies now. -- are these related?

Anyone else seeing similar effects in the economy in the later game?
It is both inflation and increased demand.

The way it generally plays out is that continent-wide prosperity rises continuously. Prosperity is a huge drain on the continent's grain supply, especially at higher levels like 8000+ and the grain supply (from grain villages) can only keep up to a certain point. That certain point is every grain village near to the town at above 600 hearths, so they produce 150% their normal daily amount of grain. Villages under 300 hearths (IIRC, not looking through game files right this moment) only produce 50% and obviously raided villages produce nothing.

Additionally, prosperity at a high enough level (I forget when it kicks in, but it might be 6000? don't quote me on that though) produces an inflationary effect in the town, at least as far as trade goods are concerned. That ties back into the grain consumption because towns with very low prosperity have cheap goods which caravans snatch up and take to high prosperity towns.

Another massive and overlooked consumer of grain are lord's parties. They have the same supply needs as player's party and will gleefully strip every scrap of food from a town to support their troops. That isn't much of a problem at the game start, but AI clans gain tiers just like the player's clan and in a twenty year playthrough most (if not all) will be at tier 6. That means much bigger parties (160-200+). Also, influence accumulates for AI clans as well, which means much bigger armies (1800-2400 are totally normal sizes) with massive, massive supply needs due to their slow speed. They have no problem buying every foodstuff in a town just to reach the next town and repeat the process, until disbanding and being instantly reformed again (maybe under a different leader) to continue the cycle.

Taken together with increasing prosperity and inflation, grain prices are naturally driven higher. How much higher depends on a playthrough; I had one where there were a handful of mega-cities (over 10,000 prosperity + 500 men in garrison) that ate so much grain just from their daily needs, every other settlement was in various degrees of starvation. Grain was quite expensive (I think anything under 20 was a good deal) and any town that produced serious amounts of it would have it plundered by caravans to be hauled off to the mega-cities for huge profit. Other playthroughs weren't nearly as extreme because there have been changes to the game's economy since then to help stall prosperity growth, due to its quite literally gamebreaking nature.

But you have to expect price inflation for food, even without mega-cities, in a long playthrough. There are going to be more and bigger parties roaming the map, along with prosperity rising.

On the plus side: it makes affording your party easier over time because troop wages are fixed while potential income from trading, fief ownership and workshops steadily ticks upward.

All this comes with a caveat that it is personal experience, virtually all of which has been pre-pillage mechanic. Pillaging definitely has had an economic effect on my game (partially due to an early oversight) but I don't have multiple playthroughs to say anything solid about how bad it should be or usually is.
 
It is both inflation and increased demand.

The way it generally plays out is that continent-wide prosperity rises continuously. Prosperity is a huge drain on the continent's grain supply, especially at higher levels like 8000+ and the grain supply (from grain villages) can only keep up to a certain point. That certain point is every grain village near to the town at above 600 hearths, so they produce 150% their normal daily amount of grain. Villages under 300 hearths (IIRC, not looking through game files right this moment) only produce 50% and obviously raided villages produce nothing.

Additionally, prosperity at a high enough level (I forget when it kicks in, but it might be 6000? don't quote me on that though) produces an inflationary effect in the town, at least as far as trade goods are concerned. That ties back into the grain consumption because towns with very low prosperity have cheap goods which caravans snatch up and take to high prosperity towns.

Another massive and overlooked consumer of grain are lord's parties. They have the same supply needs as player's party and will gleefully strip every scrap of food from a town to support their troops. That isn't much of a problem at the game start, but AI clans gain tiers just like the player's clan and in a twenty year playthrough most (if not all) will be at tier 6. That means much bigger parties (160-200+). Also, influence accumulates for AI clans as well, which means much bigger armies (1800-2400 are totally normal sizes) with massive, massive supply needs due to their slow speed. They have no problem buying every foodstuff in a town just to reach the next town and repeat the process, until disbanding and being instantly reformed again (maybe under a different leader) to continue the cycle.

Taken together with increasing prosperity and inflation, grain prices are naturally driven higher. How much higher depends on a playthrough; I had one where there were a handful of mega-cities (over 10,000 prosperity + 500 men in garrison) that ate so much grain just from their daily needs, every other settlement was in various degrees of starvation. Grain was quite expensive (I think anything under 20 was a good deal) and any town that produced serious amounts of it would have it plundered by caravans to be hauled off to the mega-cities for huge profit. Other playthroughs weren't nearly as extreme because there have been changes to the game's economy since then to help stall prosperity growth, due to its quite literally gamebreaking nature.

But you have to expect price inflation for food, even without mega-cities, in a long playthrough. There are going to be more and bigger parties roaming the map, along with prosperity rising.

On the plus side: it makes affording your party easier over time because troop wages are fixed while potential income from trading, fief ownership and workshops steadily ticks upward.

All this comes with a caveat that it is personal experience, virtually all of which has been pre-pillage mechanic. Pillaging definitely has had an economic effect on my game (partially due to an early oversight) but I don't have multiple playthroughs to say anything solid about how bad it should be or usually is.
Great read. This helps me understand much of what's going on. Thank you very much for the in depth answer. (y)
 
There are many actors and factors. For example, from my observs a combo of map terrain and overgrow bandit can lead to starvation. In terms of prices I assume most likely is high demand. I haven't really notice real inflation yet, and also in my understanding there won't be, as the prices is kinda fixed and there isn't real growth because of relation between prosperity, hearth, food. It's more a few fixed value balancing in between.

A long time ago there was a discussion about in game economy, one of the stand out point is the troubles that come when linking prosperity with food. As of current there is also less and less serious efforts and discussions now. And I feel like fix economy now would be like putting out fire on a sinking ship, because of explosions.

Didn't play much recently, but can imagine with action like Pillage add in is like one side topping abit.
 
At this point, unless the food requirements are halved, Taleworlds may need to hard-cap the prosperity. Even at modest levels - Towns with only two bound villages (especially villages that do not both produce food) are outstripping supply which in turn hits security and loyalty.

Late game bandits don't help, and while Lord's solve issues, it doesn't seem they aggressively hit up hideouts. If bandit hideout payouts were higher, it would encourage less war, which would lead to less caravans being ganked / village hearths taking a hit, and less food shortage and inflation.

Oh crap - this is Snowballing V2 @mexxico
 
I am day 2k and 1 unit of grain is well 30 denars now in some towns. Is this because of denar inflation or super high demand? Grain producing villages being raided too much maybe?

Possibly unrelated consequence but I've noticed starvation seem to be a much more significant issue for armies now. -- are these related?

Anyone else seeing similar effects in the economy in the later game?
Can you send your save game to [email protected], also can you mention which version you are playing?

I will examine your save file. Yes constantly increasing prosperity (starting with 185K (world total) and being 2x in 20-25 years) is a problem currently.
 
Can you send your save game to [email protected], also can you mention which version you are playing?

I will examine your save file. Yes constantly increasing prosperity (starting with 185K (world total) and being 2x in 20-25 years) is a problem currently.
Sent, all information you need should be provided. But for the sake of readers this result was from game version 1.5.7 stable.
 
This game is doomed. :sad:

they have taken on a half-baked but overly complicated world model of trying to simulate a dynamic economy. but the devs are clearly demonstrating they do not know how to run simulations that will tell them what to fix.

They have too many unneeded variables and attributes to towns.

confusing one variable as if it were *the* problem in a dynamic system is... naive to say the least.

Just one example of how blaming one variable is dumb: the PLAYER can affect multiple variables, so players being players they are going to drive those systems to extremes.... by manipulating multiple dimensions of the system. So you have to figure out how to balance the system within constraints. if you have any unconstrained aspects to the system simulation then players will *always* drive that system over the edge.

This basic principle has been ignored by the devs.
 
Irrigation, or any other new feature could give a surplus of any type of food. I just don't understand why the fields, dairies or any production assets aren't upgradables.
 
Irrigation, or any other new feature could give a surplus of any type of food. I just don't understand why the fields, dairies or any production assets aren't upgradables.

Yeah, if the supply ceiling is flat, but demand can increase well beyond supply, the economic in-game solution feels like upgradable village food production. And probably available through the castle/town menus. With this being a long-term problem, the upgrades should probably take a while (like 15 to 20 in-game years) to implement. Maybe this should occur separately from the regular town/castle upgrades so they don’t block other upgrades.
 
Can you send your save game to [email protected], also can you mention which version you are playing?

I will examine your save file. Yes constantly increasing prosperity (starting with 185K (world total) and being 2x in 20-25 years) is a problem currently.
cant we add a 'technology' effect (that increases production, so, every 5 years or so, theres a small bump to output due to 'tech' advances)?
 
It is instances like this where I simply wish that the old settlement system they showed back in 2016 was still in the game.

Realistically, if the continent prospers to such an extent, then we would see villages growing and expanding, eventually turning into small towns and then potentially cities. Of course, I could only imagine how complex and difficult that implementation would be, so we may have to rely on modders to at least simulate natural village upgrades.
 
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