What happens when...

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Ok here is my situation, at the start of the game two alliances were formed, one contained Rodoks, Aden, Swadia Antaria and Zekkeria, the other had Nords, Villanese, Marinians, Saranids, Khegits, Imperials and Vageris. Since alliance no 1. was outnumbered alliance no 2. quickly destroyed Zekkerians, and then i left Rodoks(which i was vasal too) and started attacking alliance no 2. I destroyed Nords, Villanese, Marinians, Saranids and Khegits, only Imperials and Vageris left. Adenians seem ATM to be perfectly content with sitting on their hands but the other 3 nations began thoroughly kick no 2.s but, they take 2 cities for every one they lose, it's a slow progress but noticeable, so what happens when they are no more? Will the remaining 4 nations turn against each other? Will they turn on me(we are all at perfect 100 relation) or will they just live happily ever after? I want to eventually rule all of Ponavosa so the best scenario for me would be for them to turn on each other, but if they decide to all turn on me it may be best to preemptively strike now while they are busy fighting the other guys.
 
Don't faction relations improve quicker with each other when they share the same enemies?

Perhaps when they are not fighting for a while the relations between allied kingdoms may gradually drop over time.
 
You might have to get a wee bit creative here once there's only 1 alliance remaining.

You'll first have to become allied to one or more of the nations, then try attacking one of the nations you aren't allied to.  The alliance web between the remaining faction should then get shattered.

What is hard to predict is what order specifically the alliances are triggered.
By this, I mean:

Let's say Nords, Rhodoks, Vaegers, and Adenians are allied and the only remaining faction.  You work it around to be allied to the Nords and Rhodoks.
You attack the Vaegers.  The Adenians declare war on you.  The Nords and Rhodoks though will choose to declare on someone, but who?  They are allied to both you and the Vaegers, so will they declare upon you, upon the Vaegers, or split 50/50 one for each side?

I'm not sure what order alliances are checked, but I do know they get checked 1 at a time.  Instead of seeing the Nords and Rhodoks being allied to both sides, and thus remaining neutral in the conflict, one of the alliances (with you, or with the Vaegers) will get triggered and the other one destroyed by a declaration of war based on the alliance that was triggered.

This is what I mean by you might have to get a little creative.  Timing your own diplomatic overtures for alliance to figure out whether it's the newest or the oldest, or some other method that determines which pact is honored, and which is discarded.
 
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