[Werewolf] SMAC: Unity [Game ends!]

[Xardob]

He's definitely a mislynch this game. I can feel it.

If it makes any difference, he always was. Every goddamn time. Which makes him a reasonable early lynch. Who wants such a question mark around in the late game?

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

He's definitely a mislynch this game. I can feel it.

If it makes any difference, he always was. Every goddamn time. Which makes him a reasonable early lynch. Who wants such a question mark around in the late game?

Lynching bad villagers or inactive villagers finds as many wolves as lynching good villagers or active villagers.

People often argue in turbos on 2+2 that someone didn't show, therefore we lose the game unless we lynch them early.

No.

Pretty much all of the time, a wolf is in agreement on it. Even if the inactive person is a wolf, his buddy will love, love, love to spite vote his partner.

Not a lot of wolves have the guts to defend an inactive partner.

I do. That's why I have not spewed myself villager d1 like I really attempted to do. Shot myself in the foot on that one.

But it is much more satisfying to be on the right side of capping the inactive wolf. You feel like you got credit for lynching a wolf and the person wasn't any good to you anyway.

Here's the other, massive problem with lynching on policy early:

A) It's usually a villager, and

B) The village has the least information then, and policy lynches GENERATE the least information

C) Meanwhile wolves know who is the biggest pain in their butts or potentially so pretty early on.

They can brain drain the village and set themselves up for a very nice endgame if they rely on policy lynches and own the night to reduce village to shambles.

Then they can GOAT it up for a round or two and win in just a couple of swift, united movements. Difficult for a divided and struggling and demoralized and brain-drained village to keep up after that.

Policy lynches are pathetic. You don't policy lynch bad teammates.

Lynches are for wolves, not moderating bad players or removing bad teammates.

Furthermore, as massively talkative as I am, there is but one requirement for me for you to be a villager on my team:

Show up and explain your votes you're making which you think solve the game for our team.

Do this and you can post exactly once per round, with a vote and explanation. And that is enough.

I am not discriminatory against people who have real lives or don't feel like wall o texting like I do.

I do feel bad when they deliberately don't play.

But the requirement for "playing" is such a low bar that seriously, everyone can meet in a game with phases this long.

And if someone drops out, that's one less wolf vote on the wolf team. Remove the active wolf first.

I agree with policy lynching in one instance: Where there is no moderator who stops players from openly abusing other players. At that point I moderate them out of the game by the vote and take the loss if that's what's due afterward. Doesn't matter if I think they're on my team or know they're on my wolf team. That's my one policy lynch. I've thankfully never had to vote that way, ever.

I want to find your villageriness Xardob. But a guy who is always a mislynch because X means we should change our behavior not continue it.

Lose the 25 percent of games he's a wolf and don't harm the 70+ percent of games he's a villager. That would be a policy no-lynch.

Sucks, but sometimes you are better off winning the 3 games and losing the one. Sorry a player forces you to place their alignment at exactly rand.

Lynch them at final 3 I suppose.

And rambling again. I must be getting tired.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Pizza is finding a wolf (not Eli, obviously) day 2 before he mislynches a villager for the wolves, I always have greater murder value than Phonemelter, I feel. Phone was lynching Pizza someday. But so was everyone after Eli gets lynched, so he wasn't that remarkable (Sorry Phone, not intended as an insult).

But if I am often mislynching day 2, I have value and wolves want to give me space to work today. Hence, the lack of serious pushing on me during my intentional absence.

Let Pizza lead a mislynch, then suspect him hard day three or if necessary late day 2.

That derives value from pizza, even if he's super correct on a wolf. As long as he pushes hard on a villager though, let's concur with his reasons or mildly disagree. Pointing fingers is bad.

Still don't think it's Llandy, though.

Frisian, doubt it.

I refuse to speculate about the remaining not-wolf leans for the purposes of this thought experiment.

My big time suspects were Magorian Aximand, Soot, and Xardob kinda.

2 of those are villagers, or three.

Do not believe it is three. There's enough wolfiness coming from that cluster of three that there's one wolf in there I believe.

Possible still for there to be two.

But no... doubt I solve the game so hard and live. Phone died to make me look worse, obviously. Kinda level 1 in fact. My response to that kill here, what I'm saying now, actually looks wolfier than the Phone murder itself, from a normal villager's perspective.

No one could have really thought phone was like, a cop or something. He wasn't playing it like anything but a vanillager imo.

So that's a framejob murder, and any equity I could get from that when I am a likely cop peek as a wolf is negligible. The murder actually would do a fair job spewing me villager but you guys aren't ever going to get that, you don't know why it's the case and if I explain it, it renders it useless because WIFOM anyway.

Walk away from this post for several minutes, come back....

No, actually he was universally townread, primary reason. He may also have been suspecting a wolf, or there was value in killing him as a universal townread who suspected no wolves or wasn't in danger of lynching one day one.

Any number of reasons work if he's not going to be a lynch d2 or anytime reasonably soon and he's also not identifying all the wolves. Then it's dangerous to kill him right away, it connects his wolf list with his death too directly.

Wolves not as worried about village powers in this game and possibly have a method of preventing the reveal of village powers or that's hard coded into the game, so... and especially with no claims.

Hmmm.

Yeah never experienced this before. I did no reveal games, and games which revealed alignment/role, but never games where just alignment was revealed.

Fascinating. It really does blunt the powers that village has and makes it a solve by wolfiness as opposed to solve by massclaim.

I kinda like it.

So, suppose its....

Xardob, Magorian, Soot, two of which are villagers.

Pizza is not getting the big fat push because he's too useful for the wolf team.

Tiem for another dreaded Askthepizzaguy reversal, I feel.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Unvote

I don't like doing a hard unvote and no insertion of a suspect in between.

Soot is virtually my vote here.

I don't know, I kinda telegraphed the Soot vote yesterday.

If I don't lynch Magorian and I am lynching Soot and Soot is a wolf, why doesn't Soot try to get me lynched today?

That is just.... messing with my head so bad.

Need to see if there was any hint of that....

 

[Vermillion_Hawk]

Well, Hawk did have a very strange change of heart about his suspects from yesterday. Suddenly dropping you and Adaham to pick up me and Vieira when we started looking like good lynch candidates is convenient.

I haven't so much dropped pizzaguy and Adaham as it is that other people have suddenly become more interesting/suspicious. The suspicions from Day 1 still, to some degree, hold, although Elisianthus' lynch puts something of a different spin on them. What that lynch also puts a spin on is Vieira's role in the voting, holding his cards fairly close to the chest and generally putting something of a strain on early lynch efforts for Sootshade, who is still quite suspicious and could very well be packmate #2. That there was a lynch compromise at all, fortuitous though it was, was in no small part due to Vieira's haggling with his vote. Thus Vieira has shot up significantly in suspicion since then. Whether or not this is wolfishness will be seen if he's lynched, but I'm of the opinion that he's certainly a valid target for the day.

Yourself, on the other hand, notably parked your vote on Elisianthus in the middle of the voting order, with something of a resigned air about you in doing so. That, in my opinion, makes you worthy of significant attention, and also a valid lynch target. I'll probably have more to go on as I read the thread more but that stuck out to me as something fairly interesting.

And, of course, this is all subject to change as I continue to read and interpret the important bits of the material thus far.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Hawk, are you still here?

It's kinda important I talk to you.

Just, like, 10 minutes of your time. Don't go anywhere.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Shoot.

I can't read people well if I can't sink my saucy bony fingers into their sinewy flesh and feel their pain reaction.

I mean... nice to see you again, Hawk.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

If only one wolf contained within Magorian-Soot-Xardob

Then there is not a Magorian-Soot team. Soot would leave me alive to lynch Magorian or Xardob. Magorian would leave me alive because he's never getting lynched by this village no matter how hard I try, and he can spin the correct-for-wolves narrative that it's gotta be Pizza and Xardob.

Xardog, I dunno. Yeah he's got motive as wolf, but. Now I'm really not feeling it.

Let me examine from start of round.

隐藏

So can we kill the obvious packmates Xardob and Pizza yet?

Wolfy agenda, Villager ego hunch, or lazy/stubborn.

In any case, I feel like there's a whole lot of wrong contained here.

The important thing is that it's obvious and we should kill them.

Because "it's obvious" is an assertion devoid of compelling reasons, and is usually given as an excuse to avoid having to provide those compelling reasons which usually means they don't exist...

But like I said, I'll argue the point.

Magorian!villager really thinks he's nailing me to the wall here. Good sarcasm.

Missing the target as hard as I am if we're villagers, but still. I can follow this.

If only I could see more villagery posts from Magorian. Why are they mostly reading wolf to me, is it confirmation bias or real stuff.

Because "it's obvious" is an assertion devoid of compelling reasons, and is usually given as an excuse to avoid having to provide those compelling reasons which usually means they don't exist...

But like I said, I'll argue the point.

So, you have compelling reasons and you're willing to argue them, but you'd just prefer that people go along with your "its obvious" claim so that you don't actually have to argue the point?

Llandy not seeing what I'm seeing there. Disconnected from Magorian, either v/v or v/w or w/v, almost never w/w.

Ruling out a Llandy-Aximand pack.

So...Xardob promised me a summary of what I've missed during my absence.

And no, I didn't use the long night to read up... 

Where did you stop reading? I'd rather save some effort by not summarizing something you already read.

'round page 68 or so. Basically when I last posted.

But maybe wait for Magorian's case on you and Pizza. Maybe that's convincing enough to rekindle my suspicion of you. I do remember that I still had you high on my list.

Adaham easily could be w/w with Magorian, or w/v with Magorian. I don't know if v/w is likely and I don't think v/v is likely.

I get the distinct impression I have Adaham too high on my village list.

Probably just residual love. He is a charismatic player. I'm attracted to that stuff.

Game is supposed to be a social and fun experience, so, charismatic entertaining extroverted players make me squee.

That's my bias.

'round page 68 or so. Basically when I last posted.

Your last post was back on page 53. Here's what happened of importance since then.

Oops, 15 pages difference in perception. God, you guys spam too much.

Mag made a little wall about me,

Skipped, except for last summarizing paragraph.

and I answered.

Skipped. That quote-o-wot is worse than the worst of Phoney.

Llandy made a case against Soot.

Skipped, except for summary in the end. Honestly, every WoT should have a TL;DR summary in the end. Appreciated!

Pizza and Soot did a little LoS.

Those are quite nicely formatted. Thx guys, I definitely have an impression where you guys were standing.

Pizza did another one later.

Llandy and Mag had a little war.

Skipped. That's a battlefield I can't attend to.

Vieira posted a LoS.

Yeah, I read the bit about myself. Strange he doesn't mention my awesome cases against Soot & Xardob. Because awesome.

I started to organize the lynch and from them on we had a very fun chaotic lynch, that I can't hope to summarize. I'd advise you to read it from them on.

Granted, I didn't read all the way up from there, but I must admit that the first few posts following your initial "ok, let's get organized" post leave me with a few impressions.

1) As much as it hurts me, Xardob is probably innocent. Since he's the master of facilitating random lynches, there'd be no point in sacrificing his own packmate like this on day 1. Since he's so random, he could have picked anybody, but it really looks like he was the first one to move things towards a serious lynch of Kronic. So yeah, either he's masterful, or innocent. In any case, off my hook for now.

2) Soot...when reading the posts Xardob quoted above, I took special care to look at Soot. I'm VERY sympathetic to Llandy making a case against Soot, but finally I also don't think it was quite as necessary for him to push Kronic that hard on day 1. Granted, he probably would have preferred to lynch me, but whatever ego drives him, he must know that lynching me on day 1 is very unlikely and - iirc - never happened before. Especially in light of my absence, it was not something that was very likely to happen, so that would have meant he would have had his packmate as a go-to lynch target for the whole day. Talk about playing fancy, but I don't see that happening.

Admitting these two things was rather big for me, so I guess it's back going to primal instincts. Magorian is much discussed, but I can't really get a villainous read on him. Pizza, I'm less sure about than I was earlier in the game. Finally, Vieira still gives me strange vibes. I mean, I know he disappeared in the past no matter his role, but this amount of activity (several WoT's from him, iirc) is very strange for him. So partially that must be him being a bit more serious about it, but I also think his enthusiasm is additionally curbed by his role.

The two big question marks that I'm left with are Hawk and Frisian, and to be honest, I'm more worried about Frisian than about Hawk.

If I'd have to guess right now, I'd say the remaining villains are Vieira and Frisian. But then again, I'm basically missing almost 40 pages worth of spam and I only skimmed over the posts above. So to make it short, I'm very curious to see what I'll be reading today and form my opinion based on that.

BTW, is there anybody who'd like to pick up the voting chart that Phoney usually keeps? It would be really handy to see yesterday's voting patterns now that we have a confirmed wolf.

I definitely have Adaham too high.

Adaham has Xardob as village here.
Adaham has SootShade as village here.
Adaham has Magorian as village here.

Not only that, the first three people he discusses are my exact top 3 wolves.

Then he drops my name in the middle of a cluster. 

Not a lot of thought given to me. Not for the sake of vanity, but, that means he doesn't feel like he's solving. I'm one of the loudest players and I am pushing my suspects hard. No thoughts on me is worse than bad thoughts on me.

Maybe he's giving me space to play. Maybe he doesn't feel like tackling my walls or getting into it with me. Maybe he's a wolf.

Maybe it's Maybeline.

So re: Frisian's vote...how do you (Xardob) see his next-to-last vote on Kronic? Sign of innocence or trying to be part of the crew that lynched a wolf? I lean towards the latter, even though I'll admit that's not really a neutral opinion.

Adaham pushes his suspects more rather than builds consensus first as a villager in Champs game 3.

I don't like this method.

Push first, pressure, then get consensus, imo.

Any word from Hawk? Or do I have to start making helicopter puns?

Only that I have a lot of catching up to do, but I'm very disappointed that I'm not even heavily suspected by many people yet. A wolf in my position would be riding pretty easily.

Hah. I like this post. Even if it's not really helpful.... it somehow is.

Toss Hawk a villager point here.

Soot, *highfive*

Now, as much as I would appreciate Adaham's change of heart otherwise, he's still a wolf and both Frisian and Vieira are probably innocent. I want to say that Pizza is his packie because that's part of the line of thought that led me to going after Kronic at the end of the day, but that is a little too easy of a direction for this to head. While I'm highly sceptical of his play, his read of Kronic really makes no more sense as a wolf than as an innocent.



Well Hawk, as a consolation, that post just made my gut scream wolf.

Soot could be distancing here. I'm not saying that's the case but if pressure were to come unto Soot today, this post would clear Adaham pretty well.

Except it doesn't.

And there's the indication of a possible Pizza push today. Yep. The evolution of the read on me went from villagery to less and less and less, very straightforward and dare I say, unnaturally linear progression.

I will say this: If Soot is a villager and Llandy is a villager and Frisian is a villager and I am a villager and Xardob is a villager and Vieira is a villager.... that's seven villagers in nine players leaving a Magorian-Adaham team.

Soot villager allows for Adaham wolf easily, Soot wolf allows for Adaham wolf as well.

I can see it both ways.

Any word from Hawk? Or do I have to start making helicopter puns?

Only that I have a lot of catching up to do, but I'm very disappointed that I'm not even heavily suspected by many people yet. A wolf in my position would be riding pretty easily.

Here's a thought; you're Soot's packmate. You dropped a bit of suspicion on him not expecting anybody to pay attention to it, just making it look like you were contributing. But when somebody did pick up on it, and turn it into a proper case, with a wagon that was rolling quite strongly towards his lynch, it was better for you to be absent because the person pushing that wagon was actively trying to enlist your support in changing your vote to the one guy you warned everybody to watch closely, and you had no real desire to bus your packmate so early.

How's that for some suspicion?

Maybe....

Villager of Pharaoh but over-eager methinks. Leaning not, mildly.

both Frisian and Vieira are probably innocent.

Why do you put Vieira as clearly innocent?

I liked his thought process, especially in his case against me. Basically, his suspicion was not only logical but to me stemmed from a very innocent mindset. He didn't go digging through my every post just to find something to be suspicious about, unlike Llandy, and instead brought up a few specific examples of what he thought to be scummy, arguing for them but not forcing everything to fit his one theory. While a wolf can be very much logical in their cases, they will also always be making them with an ulterior motive, which is something I don't see in Vieira's play.

That's the long and short of it, and I'm still too lazy to go about making a proper LoS entry on him.

Feels a bit like wolfy diplo. But keeping an open mind...

While a wolf can be very much logical in their cases, they will also always be making them with an ulterior motive...

You mean like name-dropping another player you think is trying too hard to get you lynched and implying that player has tunnel-vision, when responding to a request for information about a different player entirely?

I give you +1 for effort for that.



@Pizzaguy

Are you still with us? What are your thoughts about how the lynch went down? Have you changed your suspicions any since the end of yesterday?

Love this post. This post may be why I want to marry Llandy.

In spite of her villager read on me which is, to be fair, mild, she is not letting me get away with anything this game and is in a constant state of reading and re-assessing me, ready to pounce on me if I start acting like a big fat furry freak.

Oh, the vigilance.... the glorious vigilance.

I feel like we'll always win this game with Llandy alive and Soot dead. Not that I'm certain Soot is a wolf, but.... Llandy is going to find the wolves.

隐藏

Hey guys, just letting you know I'm feeling really burned out. It's hard for me to find the motivation to...you know...do the stuff you would expect me to do. I'm even too tired to crack stupid jokes and I definitely need a break after this game. Basically I think I guilt-tripped myself into this game because Pizza wanted to play with me, but yeah...I could really use a break.

That being said, you can count on me to stick around and throw my vote around without much thinking. Not gonna let the host down and become an inactive. But yeah, don't expect me to invest a lot of thought.

*cuestupidjokesaboutAdahamnothavingspendmuchthoughtuptothispoint*

~

Harsh as it sounds, it's kind of a shame that you didn't get lunched instead of Melter last night (if you are in fact an innocent). He's one player who doesn't seem to get bogged down by the thought of playing. I think we could use some of his enthusiasm right about now.

Harsh as it sounds, I feel the same way. And true dat re: Phoney's enthusiasm..

The unknown deadlines are a bummer.

Agreed.

I know that people can turn this around easily on me because of the length of Black Death, but almost 90 pages on day 1 for a game this size is crazy. Maybe elsewhere that's normal, but I don't think that having this much "information" adds really to the "information" we get. Also, it's not like those 90 pages were filled with one-liners either. It's just that we reach a point where every argument tastes like old chewing gum. At least that's how I feel.

Right, and I'd like to point out that subsequent days had way shorter deadlines. The 21 days was only because of Christmas. Nobody wants to host a game around Christmas and New Year because of terrible activity, so we can chalk up 7 of those 21 days due to vacation n'stuff.

Yes, that is true. But having 50% active hints at the fact the other 50% weren't all that active (or even completely absent). Also, that was a thing hard to predict. Anyhoo, no point in discussing the day 1 deadline of Black Death here. I think we agree it would help this current game to have a deadline.

Most of this is written honestly. There are subtle indications of defensiveness.

But he's not a wolf and Xardob is. Xardob tried to explain away clear wolf behavior from Kronic, then halfheartedly voted for Kronic, and then sold out his packmate when it became clear he was dead weight and gained some villager points. Textbook. Also that nonsense about other suspects being the ultimate back door? He's BSing. He's a wolf.

Pizza also displayed clear packmate behavior. He didn't form an opinion on Kronic early, he asked what everyone thought. Tested the water on his packmate. When it didn't look good, he came up with the absurd notion that Kronic was a special and tried to push that idea to protect his failing packy.

Magorian!Villager is quite tilted here.

It's probably entirely wrong. But yes, I see me through his eyes here. I see a version of me who is a wolf and I see the brainwave that sees that version of me, both in my mind right now.



Congrats, Magorian. You might have just gotten through to me.

I follow that entire thought and it actually reads sincere. Like you're done playing games.

Soot also pushed for a Kronic lynch all day long. Kronic was in his top two suspects and was the defacto number one with Adaham's lynch infeasibility. Not packmate behavior. Period.

So? Looks like TMI to me, actually.

But I follow this as well. Not in full agreement, just following the brainwave.

Vote: Xardob

Solid progression.

... interesting that I'd vote for a player I think is a wolf when I just advocated voting freely to shorten the days ourselves?

Interesting that you have described Xardob's (and Pizza's) behaviour as obviously wolfy and clear packmate behaviour, whilst Pizza thinks that you are obvious wolf, and I think Soot is obvious wolf. Obviously, we can't all be right.

As well, I learnt the hard way last game that sometimes what is obvious packmate behaviour is just accidental innocent behaviour.

From what I was reading, Xardob was doing a lot to get Eli lynched. He was doing much more than Soot, because he was bargaining, and bribing, and blackmailing players into voting for Eli. I really don't see a wolfy Xardob bribing and blackmailing players into lynching his packmate.

Llandy has it correct, I feel.

This post sequence again spews Magorian/Llandy never wolves together.

It might spew both of them villager.

http://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php/topic,333390.msg7928224.html#msg7928224

Not even gonna quote it, Pharaoh villagery process on full display.

But he's not a wolf and Xardob is. Xardob tried to explain away clear wolf behavior from Kronic, then halfheartedly voted for Kronic, and then sold out his packmate when it became clear he was dead weight and gained some villager points. Textbook. Also that nonsense about other suspects being the ultimate back door? He's BSing. He's a wolf.

Pizza also displayed clear packmate behavior. He didn't form an opinion on Kronic early, he asked what everyone thought. Tested the water on his packmate. When it didn't look good, he came up with the absurd notion that Kronic was a special and tried to push that idea to protect his failing packy.

I'm pretty sure a wolf Xardob would have nailed me instead of Kronic in that scenario. At least that's the conclusion I ended up with by the end of yesterday.

Yes, I agree with Soot's knowledge.

As far as I recall, I had four votes on me and Pizza willing to put down the fifth at the time he joined up with me to lynch Kronic. I was definitely reading it as a situation where he could have guaranteed the lynch on me. Not to say that he wouldn't get rid of a packy like Kronic, but that wouldn't have been necessary.

Forgive me for interrupting, but why isn't pizza an option then?

I mean, not that I wouldn't like to pick up my Xardob suspicion of earlier again. It's really tempting. And since Mags and I became photo-buddies, I listen more to him than does me any good, but yeah...

This quote couplet demonstrates Adaham is building towards his agenda for today, which is a Xardob or Pizza lynch.

http://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php/topic,333390.msg7928323.html#msg7928323

This from Llandy demonstrates a possible Soot-Adaham connection.

... you mean you don't see wolfy Xardob selling out a completely absent packy for villager points at the end of the day after defending and bussing him most of the day prior?

I certainly don't. The villager points are never worth the dead packy.

....I believe him.

Because this is one of those rare instances you're so hopelessly wrong, you can't even see right from where you're standing.

And I want the wall. I'm curious about what everyone said.

I believe it is rare, too.

I think I've tilted Magorian so badly he's going to end up like Phonemelter.

MURDERED BY MY HAND, TONIGHT. 

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED, MAGORIAN. I AM COMING FOR YOU. PREPARE YOURSELF TO MEET YOUR DOOOOOOOOOOOOOM. 

And stuff.

While I could still imagine voting for Xardob (because reasons), I feel 100% comfortable voting for Vieira.

Vote: Vieira

Sure, because pushing Pizza here would be.... informative, even? Especially if you're not sure but you're suspecting me?

Why not build a case on me? Why are you only trying to go for a flavorless vote of little potency instead of pushing Xardob or Pizza?

I think I agree with Xardob and Adaham. They make a compelling case! vote: Vieira



I'm not sure what to think right now. I was totally wrong with Eli and now I'm doubting every idea that pops into my brainz. 

The events certainly feel like they put more suspicion on Pizza, but I dunno. I don't think Pizza would be dumb enough to kill Facemelter overnight.

As I mentioned in discussion with Face, I would wager there is likely to be one wolf off and one wolf on the wagon. So I'd definitely think there is a wolf between Pizza, Adaham and Hawk (though I think it'd be dumb for Pizza to kill Face if he is a wolf). That would leave a wolf in this list Sootshader, Llandy, Xardob, Frisiandude, Magorian. I would say Soot or Llandy have the safest 'packie voting spot' but my gut is still screaming and sticking the finger at Magorian. But as I mentioned, I'm not sure I can trust my gut after yesterday.

I am of two minds about this post.

On first read, Vieira is basically saying there are two wolves contained somewhere on the player list.

Which isn't solving at all, seemed wolfy and useless.

Brain has reset from certain modes since then. Yet...

This post is not useless. Vieira is saying there's only one wolf contained within Adaham-Pizza-Hawk. Right now I agree. It is one or zero.
I do not see an Adaham-Hawk team here.

BTW, re: Pizza...did I miss the point where he actually dropped out of this game completely? Considering the track record he mentioned earlier this game, that's pretty surprising. Does that mean this forum actually managed to turn him from a confident & dedicated spammaster into a lurking no-show....WITHIN ONE GAME-DAY?

That's awesome, even if it's quite terrible, but yeah...awesome, too... 

No need to really push the agenda hard if village is making no strides, and pizza isn't wrecking it in the thread.

There's a hint of glee here. The terrible/awesome response seems honest. Like a wolf who is glad I'm gone, but the player is not.

Unvote

I need thoughts on Vieira's self vote. Anyone?

Well, I was hoping you'd tell me, cause it sure was strange as ****.

Thinking about when Vieira would self-vote him, I come to the conlusion "never". Yet he did. Which is strange. VERY strange.

In my experience, villagers only vote themselves when terribly frustrated (I'm speaking out of experience), yet he doesn't come across as frustrated at all. In fact, it's much more jokey, laissez-fair, en-passant, and other useless French words. Which points at wolfdom. So yeah, it's definitely wolfish.

Why didn't you come to that conclusion yourself? Worried that you might lose your second packmate like that? Is that why you unvoted? 

And this is where we just go straight into stinky, 100% pure, authentic cow droppings.

I don't believe Adaham believes any of this at all.

He could be asking probing rhetorical questions... but meesa no thinkin so.

As weird as that vote was from a villager perspective, it's even weirder from a wolf. My initial read was the same as yours, yet I can't see what a wolf would gain from that without entering on deep WIFOM territory. I guess I wanted the opinion of an expert on self votes. 

And I'm still waiting for that wall of laments. Maybe it could spark some new discussion.

Good.

Vote: Adaham

Yep.

Can't tell you why. I'm Neoxardobian now.

High-five, Pizza! 

I told this exact joke before earlier in the game, though.

Where is your suspicion on me?

Just sayin', the dude who talked about the spacecraft and Bach surely knew what he was talkin' about. Frickin' genius, that is...

Frisian, don't get high so much...makes you slow. I know what I'm talkin' about.

Adaham claiming his spot on the wall.

It wasn't me, but now I wish I had written something like "Xardob is a wolf".

Tone remains remarkably unshaken.

So, how many of you guys are actually still thinking Xardob is a wolf? Because if there's enough backing for that, I'll gladly pick up my "case" from yesterday.

Yuck.

You would be the fourth. Then you'd only need the final wolf to hop on the bandwagon.

Mmm.

...

Caught up to present.

Adaham-Soot is possible, particularly if Soot is the lynch, she's distancing from Adaham well.

Feel like Magorian is still possible but I need to drop him out of the red zone.

Feel like Xardob is possible but unlikelier.

Llandy is amaze, pushing Soot hard. Soot is possible. Llandy reads well.

Soot looks good if Adaham is the lynch and is wolf but maybe that's the point.

so many players to swirl around. Reads list must change.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is the new list

Askthepizzaguy
Pharaoh X Llandy
FrisianDude
Xardob
Vieira
Vermillion Hawk
Magorian Aximand
SootShade
Adaham

Therefore:

Vote: Adaham

Rest now, my sweet prince. Spew awesome in the afterlife.

You're a little slow on the draw, but you may now drop that big push to get me lynched today that you have been prepping.

Anyone else wanna join in feel free. Think I got it solved to a Soot-Adaham exact team, but there's one wolf in there like 99% of the time.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Soot = he, not she, I take it

Magorian-Adaham worth looking into.

I mean 90 wolfy posts and 10 villager posts is a wolf a lot of the time too. I also think he's good enough as a wolf to sneak past at least a few of my cowpie detectors, if not many of them.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

People who think the wolf team is exactly Pizza-Xardog:

Step right up, test yer skill.

Hit the correct wolf between Pizza and Xardog, and win a prize.

隐藏

Hint: The balls you're throwing are all bigger than Jennifer Love Hewitt's mouth. I call shenanigans.

 

[Adaham]

Now, that would be fun. Maybe we could bribe the next host? If we're generous enough, maybe the next host would even be willing to throw Adaham in the mix as well? 

Oh yes, that would be awesome! I honestly just thought yesterday that I would so much enjoy playing in a wolf team with you again. 'cause, you know...I like you, but since I don't put any effort into this game, I hardly reach the stage that I can fully trust you.

Also, I'd be happy to play a wolf once again so that all these new kids can finally see what all that Ace-of-Fangs-jazz was all about. You guys are seriously funny if you think this right now would be my wolfish play. If I was a wolf, I'd steamroll this village.

But as I'm literally dead-weight, I won't mind if you lynch me (except that I'd like to make another wall of lament post). I'm constantly jumping in my suspicions. Especially Soot and his stubborn, headbashing case against me - which he doesn't pursue really a lot, other than channeling his inner Cato - make me doubt the free pass I handed him earlier today.

BTW, Frisian could just as well be his wolfish lurky self - I never trust him, especially not since the Panda game. Other than that, I keep coming back to Soot and Xardob as people that I suspect. And Vieira is also in there.

So while I don't mind being vote off, I do have a bit of pride in me and would like to put up a last guess, and that would be Soot and Vieira as the remaining two wolves. If at least one of them turns out to be furry later on, I will feel a sense of Red Dead Redemption.

I'll vote one of those two before the day ends...unless you guys end the day early.

BTW, getting a visitor tonight and will be mostly on the road tomorrow and on monday.

 

[FrisianDude]

If only one wolf contained within Magorian-Soot-Xardob

if only one of those is a wolf then it's Soot.

BTW, Frisian  - I never trust him

that sounds like a complimeeeent.   You said 'could just as well be wolfish' though; do you think it's likely that I am a wolf here right now?

Also lawd have mercy I wouldn't want to have to oppose that wolfteam. That game would be hell for the villagers if there was another villain team of Llandy, Magorian + 1.

 

[Xardob]

Oh yes, that would be awesome! I honestly just thought yesterday that I would so much enjoy playing in a wolf team with you again. 'cause, you know...I like you, but since I don't put any effort into this game, I hardly reach the stage that I can fully trust you.

*Looks at the host list*

Vieira, we have a proposition for you. 

 

[Xardob]

I haven't so much dropped pizzaguy and Adaham as it is that other people have suddenly become more interesting/suspicious. The suspicions from Day 1 still, to some degree, hold, although Elisianthus' lynch puts something of a different spin on them. What that lynch also puts a spin on is Vieira's role in the voting, holding his cards fairly close to the chest and generally putting something of a strain on early lynch efforts for Sootshade, who is still quite suspicious and could very well be packmate #2. That there was a lynch compromise at all, fortuitous though it was, was in no small part due to Vieira's haggling with his vote. Thus Vieira has shot up significantly in suspicion since then. Whether or not this is wolfishness will be seen if he's lynched, but I'm of the opinion that he's certainly a valid target for the day.

Yourself, on the other hand, notably parked your vote on Elisianthus in the middle of the voting order, with something of a resigned air about you in doing so. That, in my opinion, makes you worthy of significant attention, and also a valid lynch target. I'll probably have more to go on as I read the thread more but that stuck out to me as something fairly interesting.

And, of course, this is all subject to change as I continue to read and interpret the important bits of the material thus far.

Have we read the same lynch? 

Saying that Vieira haggled his vote and that I parked mine is a misinterpretation at best.

 

[Vieira151]

Oh yes, that would be awesome! I honestly just thought yesterday that I would so much enjoy playing in a wolf team with you again. 'cause, you know...I like you, but since I don't put any effort into this game, I hardly reach the stage that I can fully trust you.

*Looks at the host list*

Vieira, we have a proposition for you. 

Reminds me, I need to get that sorted. 

 

[Troll]

Okay, Pizza is innocent, and I think that long ramble goes a long damn way for solving the game from my perspective, due to narrowing down Adaham's likely packmate here. I'm unclear on why Pizza doesn't think Hawk is a possibility, and I think he's being a bit too blinded by what I'm increasingly convinced is Llandy wolf play. Magorian makes sense as an option, but I'm not very enthusiastic about it.

Yep, got it. Adaham and Llandy. I'm going to have to go digging back through yesterday, but I think there's pretty clear motivations for killing Face for the two of them. It sure as hell will make more sense than me and Adaham in a pack in this situation.

 

[Pharaoh Llandy]

Saying that... I parked mine is a misinterpretation at best.

He's getting "Xardob" mixed up with "Vermillion Hawk" again. Easily done, I do it all the time.

Anyway, some further concerns I have with Hawk today:

• Giving a dire warning to watch Soot on Day 1 then not following through with any further comment or even a vote. Lazy wolf attempt at packmate distancing? Didn't even "park his vote" on the player he seems to have most concerns with (Soot) and instead goes for Pizza.

• Saying he had LoS on Adaham and Pizza incoming, neither of which ever materialised. Really didn't see Xardob's "back door" comment in relation to Hawk here but now I'm wondering if that back door did exist and I just didn't see it.

• Lack of any meaningful interaction at all. Avoided any opening discussion at the start of the day. No comment on Melter's death. No explanation for his absence at Day end or explanation for parked Pizza vote. Gives some suspicions but zero thought process behind it. No investigation; seems more like opportunistic name-dropping than actual suspicion.

• said...

There will 100% be something somewhat substantial and relevant by tomorrow (24 hours from now).

...still waiting for anything substantial or relevant.

What we actually get is:

In lieu of a LOS, I'll just say that the three people that seem the most suspicious currently seem to be Xardob, Vieira, and Sootshade, with Llandy running up.

Hmm, interesting. Why is Hawk looking for three people to be suspicious, with a potential fourth thrown in there? Pretty much every other player in the game is looking for a couple of strong suspects and narrow down the field. Hawk seems to be keeping his options open?

• Never even mentioned Eli as far as I can see, not once. Not even when Pizza asked for opinions about him. Possible avoidance of commenting on a suspicious packmate, out of fear it might incriminate him or that he might have to actually lynch his packmate at some point.

I believe that if ever there was a wolf who got given his wolf role and didn't know how to handle it, this is it.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Okay, Pizza is innocent, and I think that long ramble goes a long damn way for solving the game from my perspective, due to narrowing down Adaham's likely packmate here. I'm unclear on why Pizza doesn't think Hawk is a possibility, and I think he's being a bit too blinded by what I'm increasingly convinced is Llandy wolf play. Magorian makes sense as an option, but I'm not very enthusiastic about it.

Mmm. I am uneasy about you clearing me for that ramble.

That said, note how I was ready to marry Llandy and had her blue, and now she's green.

Reading Adaham wolf drops Llandy out of 99 percent villager world and puts her at like 85.

 

[Pharaoh Llandy]

@ Llandy directly: I respect you too much for this to be an attempt to make you think better of me or gain an advantage. This is just how I feel as a villager.

I'm ready to marry Llandy. If anyone besides Llandy has any objections they should make that case because it's too late tomorrow.

I wouldn't think better of you for that, in fact I am suspicious of anybody who wants to pat me on the back and tell me "you're doing great, champ," and follow my lead, especially since Whoopin's whole "I believe in you, Llandy" attempt at scum-buddying me.

And I'm going to tell you straight that I'm very disappointed with the fact that you dropped your vote on Soot yesterday and left me high and dry. Granted, losing your vote put us one down and then made my switch to Eli viable, and it ended with the lynch of a wolf, but you'd been agreeing with my case against Soot so far and then dropped it as soon as a ball of Magorian-flavoured tinfoil went rolling past you.

But since we're getting married, I think we should talk about my feelings. So...

I doubt very much that if Xardob was a wolf it would have ended with the lynch of his packmate yesterday. In the times I've seen Xardob be scum, I've never once seen him sell out a packmate like that. I'm not saying it's not something he wouldn't do one day as scum, because one day he might, but I don't think he's doing it today.

I think Adaham, as a wolf, would approach the game with an unrestrained sense of nefarious glee. I'm just not feeling that from him. I've never seen him play scum but I believe him when he says he would steamroll the village. I think Wolfham would be far more involved and interested, and I can empathise with that, because I feel the same way when I'm scum too.

The rest of the players I'm not quite as sure of.

Vieira's contributing, even if some of his contributions don't make sense to me. But I don't get a sense of him crumpling under pressure, which is how I think he would be going right now if he was scum.

Frisian is being Frisian but with more confidence than I expected. Hard to put into words exactly what I mean. If he's a wolf, then he's a wolf who's finally settled into being comfortable with being a quieter member of the pack. But I'd be very surprised if he's a wolf here.

Magorian I already spoke about, and ditto for you.

That leaves Soot, who I'm willing to bet spends his days sitting in a cottage pretending to be Grandma, and Hawk, who I feel I have been very patient with but has completely failed to deliver a single word which makes me think he's innocent.

And this is my dilemma. I hate the thought of Soot living another day. But Soot actually contributes. I respect people who post in games they sign up to, and Soot always does, even when he's a wolf. Hawk's lack of input just rubs me wrong, because it reeks of a wolf trying to pass with the bare minimum of contributions but not actually putting any effort in. And I hate that. Right now I'll go either/or. I'm more confident in my read on Soot but I respect Soot's contributions more than Hawk's and feel that Soot is more deserving of one more night, even if it means he lunches me. Again 

隐藏

VOTE ALL LURKERS