[Werewolf] SMAC: Unity [Game ends!]

[Phonemelter]

Right now, there doesn't seem to be many people who would vote Adaham. But that is partially because Soot has not actually attempted to push a lynch there.

Both of us explained why we found Adaham suspicious, but nobody seemed to think the same. Sometimes trying to push a lynch on a player most find innocent is not worthwhile until a better time comes when people are more likely to reconsider, like when there is more information (Day 2).

So, I accepted your comment. Now you cannot call my bluff and say I am "scratching" at Soot.

Oh, but I can. It's just icing on the cake that more people find him suspicious now so you do not have to put effort into anyone else, right? As I said, maybe "scratching pole" isn't the best term, but the focusing of arguing with one player pretty much all day is something I generally do not consider innocent.

 

[Pharaoh Llandy]

Whatever your paranoid mind conjures up about me, there are way more blatantly scummy things going on in this game, and it's very frustrating people getting away with those....

Yes, there are some very blatantly suspicious things in this game. And do you know what I have noticed, over the course of playing WW for the past 10 months or so here? That the more blatantly scummy actions seem to come first and foremost from innocents.

Adaham's emotional self-voting in Mengelberg. Fishy and CW's suspicious voting and heinous lurking in Dwarf Craft. Velmu's weird aggrandizing, Moss's no-lynch stancing and my wacky grandstanding in Black Death. Eternal in any game he plays as an innocent.

It's the less blatant things I'm looking out for now. So, hi.

 

[Pharaoh Llandy]

Oh, but I can. It's just icing on the cake that more people find him suspicious now so you do not have to put effort into anyone else, right?

I don't think anybody can accuse me of not putting in effort in relation to investigating other people. I've spent a lot of time on Pizza. I've had some good Q&A's with Mag which have helped me get a better read on him. I've tried several times to engage with Hawk, to no effect.

But am I going to put effort into getting anyone else lynched, if I do not find them suspicious? No. I sure as hell am not. I will put effort into lynching my suspects, and I will put effort into interacting with those people whom I feel I need to engage with.

Of course, you hold yourself to the same standard you hold me and have been making every effort to investigate a wide range of players and get your #1 suspect lynched.

As I said, maybe "scratching pole" isn't the best term, but the focusing of arguing with one player pretty much all day is something I generally do not consider innocent.

I see I have to explain this again.

I was not "focused on arguing with Soot" in the early part of the Day. I found him suspicious, I said exactly why I found him suspicious, and I moved on to some interaction with Pizza, Mag and a couple of others.

Then you came along and accused me of just EZvoting a player without trying to actually push a lynch where my suspicion was. And I thought yeah, maybe you do have a point about my action, even though you were wrong about my motive behind it.

So then I began to campaign. I am sure if I had taken the alternative route of trying to remain in a more neutral observer mode, you would still be accusing me of "scratching on a 'safe' target without actually trying to get him lynched" instead of "focusing too much on one player."

Do you see what I am saying? Whatever I do, you are there to criticise. I am in a situation that I cannot win with you, because you're just going to complain and criticise no matter what action I take. And that is not an honest way of playing.

 

[Phonemelter]

I don't think anybody can accuse me of not putting in effort in relation to investigating other people. I've spent a lot of time on Pizza. I've had some good Q&A's with Mag which have helped me get a better read on him. I've tried several times to engage with Hawk, to no effect.

90% of this game you gave been fixated with Soot, hardly even moving from him, and talking to Pizza without any sort of obvious goal - I wouldn't say a lot of effort has been put into much else, at least the way I see it. You say the constant talking with Pizza is to help you get a better idea of figuring him out because he is new, but there seems to be waaaaay too much of that for me to think

But am I going to put effort into getting anyone else lynched, if I do not find them suspicious? No. I sure as hell am not. I will put effort into lynching my suspects, and I will put effort into interacting with those people whom I feel I need to engage with.

I wouldn't have a problem with this if the push was a recent phenomenon, but it's been going on for 50+ pages, with your vote having been placed 30 pages ago. Sure, it's nice to get a player you want lynched, but you know that such effort is wholly unnecessary until closer to the deadline, especially on Day 1.

Do you see what I am saying? Whatever I do, you are there to criticise. I am in a situation that I cannot win with you, because you're just going to complain and criticise no matter what action I take. And that is not an honest way of playing.

I see what you are saying, but the way I see it the way you have gone about targeting Soot and hardly pressuring anyone else is problematic. Had you maybe done more with others and been more open to compromise I'd be less wary (depending on how it was done), but all I am seeing is a wolf not wanting to budge. Sure, some wolves will budge, but you've this more in the past as a wolf.

 

[Vieira151]

Reasons I've mentioned in the past.

1. The past, which according to you "...has gotten increasingly hazy"? 

In thr last part of the quote I said I felt that if wolves were going to vote a wolf Soot, they would have done so already ie. Already on the wagon.

2. So you think all the wolves are going to be on one wagon?

1. It was only the recent past which had gotten hazy. Yesterday I read the last ~15 most recent pages and read from around the beginning of the MagorianPizza situation up until page 43 (I took a note!) so I could refresh. So I'm getting a clearer picture now.

2. Not all wolves, I don't think. I mean, if there are only two wolves, and Soot is one of them, then I'd wager that the other one would be on. I think three wolves is more likely, but I'm not sure if both would put their vote on the wagon. I'd wager at least one wolf, though.

 

[Xardob]

Vieira, what do you think of Eli? Any chance of you voting him today?

 

[Phonemelter]

There are probably going to be three wolves in an 11 person game.

From what I have gathered in looking at the vote charts I have made and general voting patterns, there tends to be one wolf who votes early and doesn't move from their target, one that will switch over for the 3rd or 4th vote, and one who distances themselves by voting for a different player.

To me, it looks like Soot fits the bill for being innocent and we have this pattern going on. Spot could be a wolf, but I do not see why a push for Kronic would be particularly useful because a Pizza vote would be much easier and beneficial (unless Pizza is a packie).

Why do you think a wolf is going to be on a wolf Soot and who would it be? Throwing a packer under the bus on Day 1 when there are other options makes little sense to me.

 

[Xardob]

Pizza, answer me this. Everyone that answered you when you asked their opinion on Eli said that he was a wolf. There are plenty of reasons to think so, and he's a very easy target. If he's innocent, why the hell am I having so much difficult getting enough support to actually lynch him?

 

[Phonemelter]

Xardob, want to vote Frisian?

 

[Pharaoh Llandy]

90% of this game you gave been fixated with Soot, hardly even moving from him, and talking to Pizza without any sort of obvious goal

An obvious goal? Like your unexplained vote on Mag? Like your unexplained vote on me? Like Mag's use of asking me to vote him to prove a point? Like Pizza's masterplanning? I didn't see the part in the rules where it says that you have to state your every intention when interacting with somebody and ensure it is Okay With Melter before proceeding.

My goal is to better understand the motives of the players and try to hunt wolves whilst eliminating innocents.

You say the constant talking with Pizza is to help you get a better idea of figuring him out because he is new, but there seems to be waaaaay too much of that for me to think

I don't know if you noticed, but Pizza talks a lot.

Pound for pound I had the same amount of talking with Delta in the last game, the problem was she posted a whole lot less and did not give a lot back that I could then question further.

Again, I say that you seem to have a problem with me talking and not forming snap judgments. Good.

I wouldn't have a problem with this if the push was a recent phenomenon, but it's been going on for 50+ pages, with your vote having been placed 30 pages ago.

The event which triggered my push of Soot was Adaham saying that he would check back by deadline and possibly move his vote if necessary.

It is in my best interest to keep the people who have already voted for my suspect, and in order for that to happen I needed to demonstrate to enough other people that Soot has done a lot of scummy things an make his lynch viable so that Adaham did not change his vote and the whole thing lose momentum before it had even truly begun.

In the interim I have continued pointing out things which I find suspicious, like the aspects of Mag's play and his potentially hiding behind Neoxardobism, and I have continued questioning people. I really do not know what you want from me here. I'm pushing a wagon. You're either on it or you're not. If you're not, you either make a case for lynching me or you lynch your own target. Trying to constantly paint my play as lazy pole-scratching and tunnel-vision is the most dishonest thing I've ever seen you do in a game, and that includes the game in which you were scum.

Sure, it's nice to get a player you want lynched, but you know that such effort is wholly unnecessary until closer to the deadline, especially on Day 1.

See above.

I see what you are saying, but the way I see it the way you have gone about targeting Soot and hardly pressuring anyone else is problematic. Had you maybe done more with others and been more open to compromise I'd be less wary (depending on how it was done), but all I am seeing is a wolf not wanting to budge. Sure, some wolves will budge, but you've this more in the past as a wolf.

I've already said I will compromise with Eli.

I am as sure about Soot being scum in this game as I was sure about Eternal being innocent in the last game. And if I turn out to be wrong I'm sure you'll have a great time tomorrow telling everybody how right you were about me.

You will recall in the last game that I also wouldn't budge from Delta; I wouldn't even budge onto Eternal when it looked like I would be lynched if I didn't switch my vote to him. Sometimes, it seems a lack of budging can be useful.



This is all I'm going to say to you now. I only have a few hours left before bed and I have no desire to spend them getting into one of your quote wars.

 

[Xardob]

Xardob, want to vote Frisian?

Sure, lead the way. But I don't see that going anywhere.

 

[Vieira151]

Vieira, what do you think of Eli? Any chance of you voting him today?

I mean, I found some of his early stuff suspicious, which I think I mentioned in the notes I posted. And there has been very little since.

I'm not sure if I would vote him though. I'd prefer if he was replaced, but if there is little chance of a Soot lynch, then he'd be behind Magorian/Pizza for me.

 

[Magorian Aximand]

So vote for Pizza then.

 

[Pharaoh Llandy]

Adaham, Kronic, Hawk, in that order. Also, I did unvote earlier from Frisian, but I guess I might as well place my vote where it's going to be at the end of the day. I would love to go for Adaham, but seeing the reactions I'll have to go for a more realistic lynch.

Vote: Kronic

Well sorry I missed the vote that was not on its own line or LIMEGREEN'D. 

Voting for Kronic is rather safe, especially when it doesn't seem like there are enough people to vote for a lurker right now, don't you think? Are you sure you aren't just placing your vote somewhere else because you do not want to be the player that "tipped the tides?"

Says the guy who won't switch back to his top target and create a clear #1.

Interesting.



Mag, I would be careful about your continually pushing your #1 suspect like this. Especially since you've been doing it for the last... what, 30 pages? Because in Werewolf According To Melter, that is a pretty suspicious thing to do.

Oh wait, your name isn't Llandy. I guess it's not that suspicious after all then 

 

[Xardob]

We have three scenarios right now.

Soot lynch - Pizza and someone else joining. I have no idea who that sixth vote would be, no one seems very likely.

Eli lynch - Mag, Llandy and someone else joining. Vieira or maybe Frisian.

Pizza lynch - The entire Eli wagon flipping their votes and someone else joining, probably Vieira.

I'll check back later to see what the village decided and change my vote if necessary.

 

[Pharaoh Llandy]

Some unanswered questions that I'd like to see answers to before the end of the day. Because this thing is still up in the air, and regardless of how the lynch goes, there may still be answers needed for tomorrow

@Hawk

@Vermillion Hawk - Wherever (or whenever) you are, what do you think about Magorian telling Pizza not to lynch you on his say-so earlier in the game? Do you agree with my assessment that this is a good sign from Mag? Disagree? Other?

@Soot

And I'm still waiting for you to link to those "specific" interactions between Pizza/Eli and Frisian/Eli which make you suspect them.

@Xardob

You're afraid of the trashing I'd give you if you came straight at me, so you're settling on someone else. 

And if I'm innocent, and I think you're a wolf -- not only a wolf, but the most experienced and therefore likely to be the most dangerous wolf in the pack -- would it make sense for me to declare you my #1 suspect, my preferred lynch, spend all day casually remarking how you are the most scummy, and yet make no effort to actually try to get you lynched and instead settle for what I guess is your lurker-wolf packmate, leaving you, aka the biggest threat, to potentially kill me overnight before I can try to lynch you on Day 2?

 

[Magorian Aximand]

Mag, I would be careful about your continually pushing your #1 suspect like this. Especially since you've been doing it for the last... what, 30 pages? Because in Werewolf According To Melter, that is a pretty suspicious thing to do.

Oh wait, your name isn't Llandy. I guess it's not that suspicious after all then 

Point Llandy!



Xardob, I'm another potential Soot vote. But I really want this pizza train to roll.

 

[Phonemelter]

Oh wait, your name isn't Llandy. I guess it's not that suspicious after all then 

Sarcasm is a wolf tell. 

 

[Troll]

Alright, I'll be very brief and reiterate the strongest, least subjective evidence I can for why I'm innocent and why Kronic is scum. Granted that I don't have any actual stats to show for this, but I think everyone playing WW on this forum is at least somewhat aware of these general day 1 voting trends that are very evident in this game. First of all, often there's a player that very early on catches suspicion from the majority of the players in the game. In general those players are new to the game, but this time it was a returning player performing poorly that caught attention. These players are something that many people can compromise on and thus easy pickings for wolves, and thus they almost invariably hang if the wolves want them to. It's not something that many of us like, but it just happens - the last game where unquestionably occupied that role, she only survived because I specifically calculated that it may be in my advantage as a wolf, thus I didn't join in on the wagon. Hell, even then it was only Whoopin's refusal to also do so that saved her. But it's a completely different case when the wolves as a team don't want that lynch to happen, as it removes a good number of votes that are usually necessary to reaching a consensus at all on day 1 from question. In general it's invariably going to be because one of the wolves is the person in focus, never willing to vote on themselves. The other wolves may decide to join in if they judge it to be inevitable or think it's necessary to avoid suspicion, but in general they will not willingly let their packie go down, and they will generally have the power to not only prevent that, but move the focus on a more desirable target. In this case, they haven't really had the need to distract attention from Kronic this game because despite most players agreeing that he's suspicious there hasn't been any pursuit of that from most players - which is in itself an indication of the wolves not wanting to take him down. You could go all WIFOM to explain it away as the wolves not wanting to be seen going for the easy target, but in practice I just don't see this happening unless it's an extremely very forward planning and confident pack.

While moving away suspicion to another target to avoid a wolf lynch isn't applicable to Kronic in this case, I think it seems to explain Pizza's behaviour to me. While having gathered plenty of suspicion on himself he has failed to gather enough support to get Magorian lynched instead, which is the point where a wolf would start thinking of alternatives. I was a pretty obvious choice, having his packmate (Adaham) aboard already and two innocents (Llandy, Vieira) heavily pushing the case on me, and so he decided to engage me in an argument and to reverse his stance on me to see if he could gain more sympathy for the idea, while not fully committing to it - offering me a way out by giving him an arbitrary number of village reads and taking his vote off soon regardless, before he could be seen as a main proponent of my lynch. What I find confusing in this equation was Frisian's random vote on me. I did not expect it, and it might be a part of the phenomenon I'm talking about, but with the consideration I've given it thus far, the rest of his play does not give me the impression he fits, unless Adaham happened to be actually innocent, which I don't believe for a moment. Regardless, this line of thought I know to be more applicable because I'm aware of my innocence and thus am acutely aware of the fact that there has to be at least one wolf among the players going after me at this point. But even without my role specific knowledge, I think all of you have to be able to see how I fit as the scapegoat that's lynched instead of a wolf on day 1, being how Adaham's been sitting a vote on me the entire game with complete meta bollocks for reasoning and how both Pizza and Frisian only started to shift in this direction coming near the end of the day with a Pizza lynch in sight. I'm willing to bet that regardless of Llandy's prejudice against the obvious, you can find that the reason the village doesn't hang wolves on day 1 often is because that's something the wolves actively steer away from come the end of the day, letting the actual scum that was the original top lynch candidate escape just by laying down a vote on the next in line instead.

I will now go and hunt for specific interactions that support this theory of mine being applicable in this game. I don't want to hear any **** for using game theory here, despite it undeniably being my laziness taking over as I don't want to argue every minute point, as I've already gone to a lot of depth in analyzing most of my suspects, and everyone really even fitting to this theory in general. First I'll find the specific posts I was referring to for Llandy and post them, and then I'll go more in depth.

 

[Phonemelter]

Game theory is best theory.