[Werewolf] SMAC: Unity [Game ends!]

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Pharaoh X Llandy 说:
@Vieira

You mentioned you had an opinion on Pizzaguy's innocent special read on Eli, but that you wanted to see Xardob's answer first. Well, Xardob has answered. Do you care to chip in now?

He answered? I've been skimming harder than I thought.  :oops:

I was writing out my explanation, but it just kinda fell apart as I was writing - in that my explanation didn't make much sense the more I look at it. If it ever made sense, I can't remember that line of thought.  :sad:

It was something to do with the method of deducing a role/team from voting patterns that Pizza mentioned here, though under different circumstances to that example - mainly that there is only one subject involved. I'm not sure if this will be of any use for people, but my idea was that the fact that nobody voted for Eli despite the fact nearly everyone was leaning wolf (ie there was no-one saying he was innocent, which a wolf might do if they were packmates with Eli) mixed with something Eli had said (that I can't quite pinpoint).

So yeah. I lost my train of thought, but maybe someone might find that interesting.

Xardob 说:
If Vieira, Hawk, Eli and Frisian got online, this would get very fun very quickly.

I am online, but I was reading along and trying to rack my brain for my old train of thought. Also, 20+ new posts during the making of this, jesus christ. It takes me so long to write.  :dead:
 
And to answer Xardob - mostly Mags.

Not conviced of Pizza innocence at the minute, so a lynch could provide some interesting information regarding some people. If there was no way Mags would get lynched over Pizza, then I'd consider putting my vote on Pizza.

I'd also put my vote on Soot and Hawk (I don't remember any content from any recent posts of his, so that suspicion is subject to change).
 
emocF.jpg
 
Vieira 说:
And to answer Xardob - mostly Mags.

Not conviced of Pizza innocence at the minute, so a lynch could provide some interesting information regarding some people. If there was no way Mags would get lynched over Pizza, then I'd consider putting my vote on Pizza.

I'd also put my vote on Soot and Hawk (I don't remember any content from any recent posts of his, so that suspicion is subject to change).

Why exactly?
 
For the first half of the game up until about page 30 (roughly) something felt off about your play. At least, that is what my gut was telling me when I was rereading. Everything since then is hazy and I can't remember **** and it's annoying me. And I remember finding Pizza having got the upper hand of your early skirmishes (and I can't remember much more), and my gut was screaming to vote you. Something about your posts just wasn't reading innocent to me.

Whether that will change when I get to the latter half of the day in my thorough read through, I don't know yet.



Speaking of my thorough read through, I think I should make it less thorough. I found that once I got past the early stages of not much happening, I've practically been writing notes for the majority of posts. I'm probably overthinking stuff, but it's very difficult to write everything down because I get the feeling my reads might change based on how I interpret the posts each day - which means the notes might be a huge mess of contradictions or strange thoughts. Oh well. 3,013 words, 20,395 characters as of page 21 including formatting  :meh:
 
Fine then. Let's do this.



Everything is based on my read up until the end of page 21. Some points I make are referenced with content that appears later in the thread, but those are only things that stuck out to me hugely at the first time of reading (as I've mentioned, my memory has gotten increasingly hazy in the last 20-25 pages) and I could remember while I was reading through.

It's more of straight notes rather than an LoS, as I try to give my read and thoughts on individual posts. I'll give my overall LoS once I'm done catching up. Some players will have much less, depending on how often the posted during the first 21 pages, and how many of them I found interesting.

Beware: I switch between Kronic and Eli seemingly at random. Pardon me.

Disclaimer: Reads and opinions are subject to change based on more recent information being consumed. Earlier information will be reviewed if newly consumed material tickles my memory.



Adaham: 

Goes for an immediate meta vote on Sootshade. Thought nothing of it at the time, but it might be worth noting that his suspicious lies in the same place now – his last day before he goes travelling for a week. This is very interesting to me, because it could indicate that Adaham has had Soot on his mind all Day, and perhaps has been subconsciously focusing on him. This could either come from paranoia or knowledge that Soot is a wolf – which would indicate that Adaham is also a wolf.

Later, he posts an LoS of sorts that is short and to the point. Which unfortunately leaves a lot more to be asked than can be concluded from it. He puts myself as his highest suspect, but at the time I considered it a joke on the fact I've been struggling to keep playing in recent games and I never thought more of it. It's probably too late to ask for reasons, but I'd be curious nonetheless. Note: he has Soot as his second favourite lynch.

Makes another post here, a little longer, that seems fine. Explains why he doesn't think Face came out of PizzaMelt all that well, which is a point I agreed with.

After Phoney makes this post Adaham responds with a post I can't quite read. I can't quite figure it out, and it's probably going to bother me. I can't tell what's the most important detail – the fact he is offering a deal or the fact he is throwing Melter's “vibe feel” argument back in his own face. Maybe reading it in the future will offer more.



Elisianthus:

Starts off with this post which is interesting, as it doesn't necessarily read as a joke. I read it as one first time round (because I too made the same joke), but the fact he mentions that he'll have a better read after dinner suggests that what he mentions is still somewhat of a legitimate read. Which he admits here, where he states that it was “half-jokey”. While I think I agree on his original read at this point, this is where he begins to fall into the pits. This post has been well documented and taken apart before, so I won't reiterate, but I will say I agree for the most part on what Magorian argued. He does however take a stance on the PizzaMelt saga, even if its not an extreme stance, that I find less scummy than the rest of the post.

In his post here he does a fair amount of defending oh his previously wolfy post. Which would be fine, if he had shown that he was willing to do much else. The closest we get to some form of wolf hunting is just him listing 3 people he'd happily lynch. He doesn't go after any of them, and has not, and two of them are Soot and Mag whom he mentioned in his first post, however many pages beforehand that was. Makes another post here that basically is made up of more self defence.



Llandy:

There isn't much to go on for the first few pages – she spends most of her time defending playstyles and bantering. She then made a rather large post here, that didn't really offer a huge amount for the size, looking back. Most of it is bantering. A few things I noticed:
“Melter is actually very capable of being a cunning bugger even when he's really drunk. I wouldn't follow that WIFOM too far if I were you. “
Which is interesting, because Llandy is one of the people Melter put as innocent on the LoS in question (the one at the start where only a few people weren't wolves). I'll be keeping this in mind.

One of the things she pursued in the post was the No Lynch thing by Pizza, which was cleared up later. It was something I had thought about at the time, but because Pizza had went on to vote PMelter I didn't think much of it. I consider her pursuit of this information townie.

“Why waste a lynch on Soot? If he’s innocent he’ll be dead by Day 3” This caught my eye. I don't have much of a packmate theory going, but this was interesting as Soot was another person PMelter listed as innocent on his LoS. And if Soot is a wolf, then the implications here are that he'll survive later than Day 3 – and she is insinuating a lynch on Soot would be a waste. Reads like a joke and probably is – but it certainly stood out to me as something that could be looked at once there is more information. Slightly wolf read from that comment. Also,
But since you wanted an initial read, I’ve already said what I think about Melter (drunk posting and giving zero indication of his alignment either way). The one thing that got my back up about Pizzaguy was the same thing that triggered my paranoia alarm in the last game with Delta; I was singled out. Delta “ditto”d my vote on Adaham for no reason that I could get my head around. And now Pizzaguy would have “preferred” my opening vote to be on somebody more wolfy but makes little or no comment about other peoples’ opening votes. With Delta, I made the mistake of letting my paranoia see scum motives in everything she posted, and I’m trying not to make that mistake again.
reads as her saying, “But since you wanted an initial read, I made a mistake last game and I'm not going to do it this game” which doesn't sound like a read at all. It's almost as noncommittal as the post of Soot's that she is replying to.

This post doesn't contain much, but I'm reading it town. It just seems reasonable and doesn't feel like something I think a wolf would do.

Even though I think Soot refuted the arguments in  this post quite well, I didn't find myself reading her arguments as particularly scummy – I felt the meta argument was a little stretched too thin and didn't fit well, so that could be a sign of fur but in general this post leaned on the town side for me. Her follow up was good, too.

Her post here is a bit of a mixed bag – in 1) she says she use meta to see if that is how Kronic, whom she does not suspect at this point plays normally, yet she then bases 2) heavily on meta reasoning about Soot, whom she does suspect. Is this selective use of meta to make her points? It feels like it. Is leaning wolf, if only because I agree with her point about his pack hunting. Follows up this post with a short post that seems reasonable (and if Hawk's LoS has arrived, I don't recall reading it yet).



Phonemelter:

Joins us with an neoXardobian LoS on Page 3, I assume. Names himself and I as neutral and Llandy, Soot and Xardob as innocent; everyone else wolf. I'm not looking too much into it right now, but it could make interesting reading in the future. However, he mentions here that it was a fabricated LoS, but I still think it might be worth keeping an eye on because the subconscious can do funny things to people.

Makes a post here where he makes some points regarding Pizza, and I felt he was asking the right questions here.

I like this post here. While not a post detailing his current stances, it gives us some insight in how he has viewed certain players at this point (though they all seem to lean one way or the other, rather than remain neutral). I agree with what he says about all three bolded players, and I do find his comment on Hawk about Soot being singled out interesting, especially considering Hawk's earlier question of Adaham.

The next part of the LoS is fine, though this one seems a little more neutral than the last installment. What exactly does Xardob playing more amicably mean, and is that the reason he is leaning innocent on Xar?

The final installment of his LoS features some valid points about Llandy, but he seems to feel unsure about Soot and doesn't give us much of a read. “He seems suspicious because of suspecting people who suspect him, but he also seems innocent because he seems more like an annoyed villager and a wolf lowering suspicion”.  It's hard to tell which one of these he leans more towards, and if it's neither he doesn't clarify which reads slightly suspicious to me.

Makes a good post here. Notices a problem in my LoS and questions me on it. I wouldn't say that he's found a wolf, but I would call it poking in the right places.



I apologise in advance if anything I post in here has been refuted recently. I'll get there eventually, and consider it in my eventual read.

This will be cont'd in the next post (since I'm not sure how many characters I've used and it feels nicer to split it in half by players).

PS: I hope every link is correct.  :lol:
 
Part 2: I Realised I Can't Divide By Two



Magorian:

Starts off with this post which feels innocent. The only reason I would see a wolf posting something like this is if they just want to perhaps release some initial nerves or tension, and pass it off as a joke. It's unlikely, but if Mag is a wolf, I'll eat these words.

Took a back seat once Soot interjected on his behalf, which I don't like. I always considered Magorian to be a player who prods and pokes to keep pressure on a player as a means of hunting. Maybe I've glorified him, maybe he has changed since we last played, or maybe I've misremembered him, but this felt out of sync with what I've come to expect from his style of hunting, especially considering he felt I was nervous.

Makes a good point in this post about Elisianthus.  Listed some minor thoughts about Face, Hawk and Fris too. The comment on Fris seemed almost as a throwaway comment, but it's not hard to see how it's difficult to have gotten anything on Fris, his comment on Hawk was typical and nothing unexpected, and I can't find anything that is reading wolfish no matter how much I try at the minute. His good vibes for Face seem a little strange in hindsight – the only reason he gives is that FMelter managed to not go off-course in the discussion. Maybe Magorian had other reasons for the good vibes, but that he only mentioned this one make it appear like it's his sole reason, and it feels like a hollow reason. I can't quite put words to why I think that, but it just feels like an 'easy' way for him to take a stance on the topic of PizzaMelt.

This post could be quite condemning. It's hard to imagine either player flaunting an implied connection right in the open, though. It's something I could consider Magorian pulling off, but I just don't see it. Especially considering the ****storm that was about to come down between the two of them. Keeping it in my mind, but reserving a read in case it becomes relevant in the future.



Soot:

Interjects on Mags behalf, which in turn kills that avenue of investigation for them. Probably not the cause of the dissipation, but it both allowed Mag to take a back seat and then let off any pressure they could have put on me. Later he mentions how Mag never followed up on it and that gave him a wolf read, but I consider that contrived considering Soot offered Magorian the opportunity to do such in the first place.

Here he posts some thoughts on the more active players at the time, and I've detailed my thoughts on this. TL:grin:R Where it comes to his suspicions he is non-committal here, never stating outright if he finds them wolfy, and leaving avenues that he can lean to either side without much repercussion. It's a very safe LoS that seems to have been made with the apparent intention of not being too offensive to anyone at all, which Pizza notes here.
He makes another post here that I've discussed a little already, here and I think Adaham also touched on this.

This here refute of Llandy's arguments is conflicting as it reads as the opposite of how I've generally been reading Soots. This particular post doesn't read scummy to me.

Makes a post on page 21 that I've replied to and discussed before - in the top half of this post.



Hawk:

Comes in on Page 3 with this post, which didn't ring any alarm bells. It's more a comment of playstyle than anything else, and it's a comment that doesn't read either direction, for me. In my eyes, it's perfectly valid to start the game on any of 3 view points – everyone is innocent and must be proven guilty, everyone is guilty and must be proven innocent, and everyone is neutral and must be proven to be one side or the other. So no, it doesn't read furry to me.

Makes the post here. As I've said before – read moderately wolfy to me. I agree with some points he makes about Soot, but I feel that the point Xardob brought up was a good one that I agree with.

Adaham rejoins us, and Hawk says this which I think is a little bit strange. Adaham does mention it though I'm not quite sure what to make of it. There are a few ways it could be taken, but I'm holding out to see if I can gather more information before deciding.

Forgot about this post but he makes a good point here. Reads town.



Xardob:
Started off fairly banterous, and I didn't get any awkward or furry reads on him. I noticed this, though:
Xardob 说:
Vermillion_Hawk 说:
That's not even uniquely Xardob, that's just smart play in this game.
It's not, actually. Finding innocent is just as, if not more, important than finding the wolves.

While not a bad point, it's kind of just reinforcing what Hawk is saying – if you start with everyone as a wolf, then all you'll be doing is finding innocents. Either I've misread Hawk or Xardob has misrepresented Hawk's point here, even if Xardob's point was valid. This reads scummy, for me.

He makes a larger post here with some thoughts, which was his most major contribution at the time (or at least, most readable). This read innocent to me – I liked most of the points he made here. The one thing I could question is his (short lived?) packmate theory which has little substance, but I felt the logic behind the connection he made to be somewhat understandable.

On page 21 he makes this post which doesn't read furry. There is a lot of banter and joking going on, but he makes some valid points too, including a section on Eli, Hawk and Pizza.  Makes another lengthy post that doesn't read furry either, despite the lack any clear stances (besides Adaham not appearing suspicious). But none of it feels malicious or manipulative, and that's why I'm reading it on the innocent side of things.



Pizzaguy:

Read nothing from his first few posts – just felt like typical introductory posts. I'm curious what his current thoughts on this post. He describes the quoted Magorian post as “very pure”, which implies there is nothing scummy at all. Does it still read as pure to him, or has his opinion changed on the matter at all?

His initial leans reads quite interestingly now. On the topic of Magorian, Pizza places him in “deep blue” which he mentions “I likely never vote here”, and for Magorian specifically he says:
Lean prone to reversal: Unlikely, but it is within the realm of metaphysical possibility

In hindsight this reads wolfy to me. Why? Because it did not seem very difficult at all for that opinion to change. Magorian remained blue for a while on the radar – here – before Pizza goes and says in this post:  “Feel like downgrading Magorian, though. I'm feeling so meh on him right now. Nothing wolfy, just.... nothing good either.” If there is nothing good, then how come he was ever in the blue to begin with? The next time he mentions Magorian here, he mentions that his opinion of Magorian changed very quickly which is at odds with what he said before that suggested it would be very difficult to change opinion (at least, that's what I interpreted “within the realm of metaphysical possibility” as). Oh, and that likely never vote thing? That then happens two posts from Pizzaguy later.

Contrast with this change of heart to his change of heart on myself, and it paints an interesting picture: in that initial leans post, on the topic of myself, he says: 
Lean prone to reversal: Realistic but uphill battle.

Recently he mentioned that he had me down as a villager, but I think it wasn't that big a read, and was more of a lean. This fits with his “uphill battle” in the quote. But this steady change contrasts greatly with his inversion of Magorian, whom he claimed he would never vote and whose lean was unlikely to be switched.
It should also be noted that the speed in which Pizza turned from blue to red on Magorian is very similar to the speed in which he turned on Phonemelter. Admittedly this was all early game, so my ideas here crack apart a little, but I still think it holds weight.

I've mentioned before why I don't like this post. However, he has recently moved on to suspecting Magorian and he seems adamant that nothing will persuade him otherwise (similar to his case on Face) and almost directly opposite to his initial read (“likely never vote here”). Maybe I'm reading too much into this, and it's a matter of confidence and playstyle, but for someone who fields such strong positions, it seems very easy for him to move away from those stances quickly, and I feel that weakens the positions he takes.

Soot makes a post on the topic of Kronic, Adaham and Hawk. I've discussed this before and I still consider it weak hunting – it relies on one post by Kronic: gut read, gut feeling mixed with meta for Adaham, and a lovely little (essential) OMGUS on Hawk. It's understandable that there isn't a huge amount to work with, but it felt like he was trying to conjure up a pack of wolves. It felt contrived and doesn't read innocent to me.



Frisiandude:

I can't believe I got to page 10 before finding something to talk about – I just didn't get a read on any of his previous. Here he comes to defend himself (though I'm not sure I'd consider it to be defending :wink:) and make more jokes. And that sums up how I feel about his play, hampered by real life though it is. The problem is that it's typical Frisface, so I don't know which way to read it.

This here post doesn't contain much information, but I read it as villagery. It seems like a genuine attempt at stopping the PizzaMelt from getting out of hand and hampering the rest of the possible discussion.



Again, reads are generally on a post by post basis and I'll give an overall LoS eventually. I'm frustrated with how little I currently have down on Frisian. It looks rubbish compared to the rest.  :mad:

I hope this isn't too much of a slog.  :ohdear:
 
Vieira 说:
Llandy:
“Why waste a lynch on Soot? If he’s innocent he’ll be dead by Day 3” This caught my eye........Reads like a joke and probably is.........

Definitely is. That's why I put the lol-smiley after it. It's a running joke around here that lately Soot has never survived past Day 2 as an innocent, the exception being Dwarfcraft where he survived to Day 3 or Day 4.

......reads as her saying, “But since you wanted an initial read, I made a mistake last game and I'm not going to do it this game” which doesn't sound like a read at all. It's almost as noncommittal as the post of Soot's that she is replying to.

I don't always have strong reads in the early phases of Day 1 (sometimes I don't even get proper reads until Day 2, or later), and I can't be forced by anybody to post reads that I just don't have. That is why I wait until I have more information. And then I analyse peoples' play. Which I did. Hopefully when you reach my LoS analyses you will be more satisfied.

Her post here is a bit of a mixed bag – in 1) she says she use meta to see if that is how Kronic, whom she does not suspect at this point plays normally, yet she then bases 2) heavily on meta reasoning about Soot, whom she does suspect. Is this selective use of meta to make her points? It feels like it. Is leaning wolf, if only because I agree with her point about his pack hunting. Follows up this post with a short post that seems reasonable (and if Hawk's LoS has arrived, I don't recall reading it yet).

I don't even understand this. You're saying that I'm using meta to see if that is how Eli really plays, but I can't use meta to do that because I literally have zero meta on Eli at all. I don't know whether you're misunderstanding my post there, or I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say here. Please clarify.

No, wait, in fact, don't bother.

Vieira, no offence because you've obviously put a lot of time into what you've done so far, but you're covering things that have already been covered, which are now moot, and which we have moved on from. Whilst this may help you figure things out, it doesn't help me get a better understanding of you. You've spent so much time doing this that you're forgetting questions you've been asked and posts you've promised, and you risk being left analysing days-old posts when we're approaching the deadline for lynch.

The nice-Pharaoh in me wants to say yay, you're here, you're posting, you're doing good so far and please, please don't quit.

The paranoid-Pharaoh in me wants to point out that rehashing old posts/observations (many of which are no longer relevant) comes across as a convenient way to appear to contribute whilst skirting around the more recent issue and avoiding addressing anything that is currently relevant.

I would rather that you just stopped taking your notes about the early game, spent however long you need to get fully caught up, and then post notes pertaining to the last 20 pages, not the first 20. It may actually save you work in the long run because then you will not have people debating earlier posts with you when most of the time they will not even be relevant anymore.

Ugh, this post was bigger than I intended. Got shopping to do now and some Fathers-Day-present-buying. Prolly back in a few hours.
 
Sorry wifi was down. And Baldur's Gate was up. Though stupid Minsc won't even talk to my party. Anyway, reading up on the last dozen pages.
 
That thing is just too cute :sad:

And I should have started my character with more than 5 charisntma because I think that's why Minsc just won't talk to me. And I took the portrait of an evil Dwarf.



I have to remark on the similarities I percieve between Mag and Pizza's playstyle though neither would appreciate it much. Both essentially go 'lock on Target and then push hard'. The method of pushing is a bit different and Mag has cloaked himself in Xardobbity, but yeah.



also,

unvote

Sorry MaHuD. :razz:



Also you people make NOTES about this game?  :shock: No wonder I can never keep up.



A while ago I mumbled some assent and support for Llandy's case on Sootshade but never followed up on it.

Vote: Sootshade

I figure it's time to do so now because I'm not interested in the half-baked Llandy-attempt and Magorian and Pizzaguy are just too amusing to keep around. I say amusing but really, it's not. What is however is sort of a spine to the game. Pizzaphone quote war did this at first, now the Pizzorian Pizzaximand war does; it generates.

While I usually consider this a poor reason for anything I also see little reason to vote either of those two yet.

 
FrisianDude 说:
And I should have started my character with more than 5 charisntma because I think that's why Minsc just won't talk to me. And I took the portrait of an evil Dwarf.

The Charisma score used for interactions should be the one of the 'lead' member of your party, so try putting another character into your party leader slot and trying again. If it still doesn't work it could be that your reputation is too low or maybe a bug.

I have to remark on the similarities I percieve between Mag and Pizza's playstyle though neither would appreciate it much. Both essentially go 'lock on Target and then push hard'. The method of pushing is a bit different and Mag has cloaked himself in Xardobbity, but yeah.

I noticed that too. They have different methods of campaigning but they both seem to have a similar focus and level of determination.

And stubbornness.

~Llandy, who will return to chores and check back later.
 
FrisianDude 说:
Also you people make NOTES about this game?  :shock: No wonder I can never keep up.

I find I get lost otherwise.

Apparently I get lost anyway.  :lol:



Pharaoh X Llandy 说:
Her post here is a bit of a mixed bag – in 1) she says she use meta to see if that is how Kronic, whom she does not suspect at this point plays normally, yet she then bases 2) heavily on meta reasoning about Soot, whom she does suspect. Is this selective use of meta to make her points? It feels like it. Is leaning wolf, if only because I agree with her point about his pack hunting. Follows up this post with a short post that seems reasonable (and if Hawk's LoS has arrived, I don't recall reading it yet).

I don't even understand this. You're saying that I'm using meta to see if that is how Eli really plays, but I can't use meta to do that because I literally have zero meta on Eli at all. I don't know whether you're misunderstanding my post there, or I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say here. Please clarify.

No, wait, in fact, don't bother.

I will bother because I noticed I made mistakes. Should read: "in 1) she says she won't use meta to see if that is how Kronic, whom she does not suspect at this point, plays normally, yet she then bases... "

Apologies.

I don't expect anyone to discuss the points unless they find something truly questionable - it's mainly just to show people how I read things and allow them to see my process. Perhaps they can take a stance, a la Xardob though with maybe a little more explanation (:razz:). It also might help in posterity, especially for myself.  :oops:
 
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