[Werewolf] SMAC: Unity [Game ends!]
- 主题发起人 MaHuD
- 开始时间
正在查看此主题的用户
Okay Pizza, I’ve managed to sneak some time in at work to read and reread your post here, and tried to wrap my head around your logic. This is how I see things. My numbered points relate to numbered points within your spoilered post.
1. Here’s the first thing which raises my eyebrow. When you were initially asking for a consensus on Eli, he’d made what, 2 or 3 posts at most? And whilst people were giving feedback, you mused that he wasn’t a vanilla villager, but perhaps not a wolf. I.e., he might be a special. I have no idea how you even came up with that, because in those 2-3 posts there was absolutely nothing to indicate that Eli may have a special villager role. This, to me, represents an enormous leap that is nothing more than a random guess.
2. Next, you give your opinion on how a packmate of Eli’s might respond to your question, by being unsure of him or naming him a villager. There is also another alternative which you did not seem to consider; that if Eli is a wolf, his packmates may have said nothing about him. Not everybody answered your question. It would be just as easy for a wolf to refrain from answering to avoid giving their opinion, and your large post here seems to completely discount this variable.
3. This is where I start to be concerned. I know you probably do things very differently on your forum, and from what little I read of the Championship game I know that this very commonplace, but around here we do not call attention to our specials except in very particular circumstances. When we call attention to our specials, they tend to die early. It’s generally considered bad form for another player to point at somebody and say “Hey, I think this guy might be a special, let’s keep him around.”
As well, you say it is the case that if he’s a village power, then he’s going to look like a wolf. Er, what? Why should he look like a wolf if he’s a special? There is no blanket assessment for how innocent specials behave. It depends entirely on the individual. You then go on to say that wolves will want to vote for him, and that this is the case. But this is supposition, because we have no proven wolves yet. Sure, you could say that suspicious players want to vote for him, because that’s true if most of us say it, because we find different players suspicious for different reasons.
4. The three points you list here could be valid if you’re innocent. But they could also be valid if you’re a wolf. If I am reading this right, the general gist of this is “I’m defending somebody I think is a wolf in case they’re a special, which obviously makes me an innocent because a wolf would be stupid to do that.” You also rely heavily on “this is going to make me look bad” WIFOM. But again, you don’t know for certain how it will look to every player in this game. Just as a wagon rolling on Eli might not end with his lynch; you would be surprised at the sorts of things that can happen in our games.
5. You ask why you would take this risk of defending Eli as a villager or a wolf. As a villager, I don’t know, and your own explanation is as valid as anything I can speculate. As a wolf, then there are different possibilities depending on Eli’s alignment. If he is an innocent, then your "guess" turns out to be right. And it makes you look better. And if he does turn out to be a special, it makes you look smart for trying to protect him. And if he’s a wolf, there is always “It is wolfy for a wolf to defend his packmate against such impossible odds, I would never win that game as a wolf, so obviously I am an innocent.” It feels like you’re covering your bases and failing to accept responsibility for your potential future actions here. As in, "If I do this and I'm right, hooray for me, but if I'm wrong then I'm obviously innocent for being so wrong because no scum would make such a bad play on purpose."
The main problem I have with the whole thing is that it appears designed to show how innocent and maybe even how selfless you are, in taking a huge personal risk to protect innocents. And you know what? I too have, in the past, taken huge personal risks to protect innocents. I lynched my packmate in my first ever game to “protect” an innocent and even had a 10 page quote war with Melter to convince him that protecting an innocent was my plan all along. In my second game I wrote a moving, heart-felt confession that I was a panda (wolf) and enlisted the aid of the village in identifying and taking out our third-party vampire villain (granted, allowing my third, unmentioned packmate to then kill with impunity after I died). In my third villain game, I selflessly offered to take up a position of Watchman for the night, despite the fact that I was plagued at the time, and if I was voted into Watch it would mean no cure for me and it basically would have “outed” the one who converted me.
I’m not saying that just because I have done these things as scum means that you’re scum because you’re doing them now, but as something of an expert in putting a “greater good” spin on things, I am inherently suspicious of people who claim to be potentially sacrificing their own safety to protect innocents or act for the benefit of the village.
6. Your plan, whilst undoubtedly detailed, is just too convoluted for me to fully follow. I’ve said previously that at times I need to be hand-walked through things, but I just can’t follow where you’re going. You say you aren’t defending Eli, and yet your post clearly does offer a defence of him, and then a defence of your defence by claiming it is not a defence.
Your next part of the post, where you get back onto the subject of Mag, makes even less sense to me than your theories about Eli. The simple fact is, although I have some issues with Mags’ play, I just don’t see all the things you’re seeing. Your entire theory seems to hinge off Mag being confirmed wolf, but right now, he isn’t.
7. Again, I have found that when you’re (I’m) scum, the best way to tell a lie is to wedge it between two truths, coat it in sugar and get the villagers to want to eat it. So saying “it should be too detailed and too true to be anything but village,” does not really convince me. Because there are exceptions. I have been one. And knowing how conniving I can be in that situation makes me paranoid about how conniving others can be too. I think you’re a clever enough player to be able to pull off anything I think I could pull off. Take that as a compliment, even though I don’t understand most of what you’re getting at with your masterplan^™.
The things you are saying are just too complex for me to follow. There are masterplans^™ which work. For an example, see Seer-Adaham’s “gotcha” of Shatari in the last game. The premise behind his plan was easy to follow, it did not leave room for multiple interpretations of anything except who was Shatari’s packmate, and it was explained well. Most importantly, it was based on hard evidence that a wolf had been caught in a lie. Your plan is based in conjecture, and if even one of your threads unravels, it has the potential to just destroy your plan completely, which means the whole thing you just posted would need to be re-evaluated in light of new evidence, and attempting to evaluate it even once has been time-consuming and confusing.
8. “A wolf will either be opposed to this or play along.” <---so basically, any stance that player might take could be a wolf. There are only three stances anybody can take on your post. They either accept what you say and pat you on the back, they reject what you say and claim you’re a wolf, or they can’t follow or form an opinion on what you say. Saying “a wolf will either be opposed to this or play along” doesn’t really say anything at all. You additionally say you can’t predict what wolves will choose to do, and yet you predict that they will not only want to suspect/lynch Eli but are already doing it, and most of your post is based off predictions of what wolves and innocents will do.
TL;DR? A few bits and pieces of what you said make sense, but the majority goes over my head. I can’t operate at the level of complexity you seem to involve in your play, and I’m not sure I want to. I know you’ve said you like this level of play and find it fun, so I just hope you don’t feel you wasted your time posting what you did.
Askthepizzaguy 说:My stance on Elisianthus, and more regarding Magorian and Hawk.
I wanted to get data on Elisianthus, again what I said was not entirely at face value.
1. I was genuinely not sure where I stood on Eli, however, I suspected village power or wolf. So I asked the thread if this person is a villager or a wolf.
The thread said wolf, including people I suspected. But Eli didn't gain votes.
That was the most damning thing about Eli, however.
2. However, I also get the feeling that a packmate of Eli's will say he's a villager, or be unsure of him. That way they're not cornered into voting for Eli today.
Here's why I take a risk on Eli.
Say he's a wolf: There's already consensus that he is. My puny defense of Eli is going to do jack crap for him today, or even in the long term. I'm not even strongly defending him or attempting to change minds, I say leave him as a suspect, take care of him *in time*.
He survives to the final-ish rounds, then seriously consider lynching him.
3. But, say he's a village power: Then he's going to look a lot like a wolf AND wolves will be keen to vote for him.
This is the case.
This is why I'm taking the personal risk- Look at how people besides Magorian and Phone are reading me.
The biggest problem/scummy thing I've done so far is my stance on Eli. I'm aware of how I look when I defend Eli, a person who is in my top 3 suspects for wolves.
I'm quite aware. One thing you cannot suggest is that I did not go into a defense of Eli situation without knowing the following:
4.
(A) It's a huge risk he's a wolf, he's on my wolf list. So, defending someone even I think could be a wolf, is a bad look for me.
(B) The consensus is that he's a wolf, so, defending him won't help him survive the game or even, if it came down to it, today. Look where everyone stands. A wagon starts on Eli and he's going to be lynched. My lone defense of Eli will be the thing that sticks out like a sore thumb if he's a wolf.
(C) I've pushed hard on too many others today, if I also defend a wolf, then this will be my record: approximately 4 villagers I've heavily suspected, assuming a three wolf system, plus my being a villager. 5 minimum if I were a wolf which is not the case. Plus a defense of a wolf.
There's no way I survive that game as a wolf.
If Eli were to be lynched and flip wolf, I'm almost permanently a mislynch this game. So, even as a villager, I'm risking the entire game on my stance- I cause an additional mislynch for village, in a small game where mislynches are not plentiful.
That's a massive risk.
5. Why would I take this risk as wolf or villager?
You fill in the blanks on my reasons for doing it as a wolf- obviously I'm defending a packmate, in Eli.
Or, look at it this way: Perhaps it is my intention to be the one guy who guessed his alignment correctly if he flips villager.
There are scummy motivations, if you think about it surface-level.
6. Think deeper. I'm not defending Eli. I'm pointing out that a certain other player Magorian has done much in his power to find mislynches today, and has not actually pushed his suspects, nor cleared them.
I am keeping my focus on my top suspect, and also pointing out his behavior toward Hawk has betrayed the fact that he does not really want to lynch Hawk.
So when I said Magorian, tell me to lynch Hawk, and I will, his hesitation is a clue.
He doesn't really believe I am a wolf, either. This suspicion came from the moment when I called him and Hawk both wolves.
Read back and find where his vote moves to me, and examine it from that perspective.
Examine the exchange where I ask for him to tell me to vote Hawk. I do more than tunnel my suspect, I am still keeping my mind open to the idea that my suspect is innocent, and my innocent is a suspect, so I ask and I poke.
And those little asks and pokes which look like villager pizzaguy asking his best buddy Magorian if he would like his assistance, are actually a form of interrogation just as pernicious and just as aggressive as the kind I displayed toward Phonemelter.
Better, Magorian is unaware I am suspecting such a connection when I ask him, so it can betray his real motivations when I ask him questions while he thinks I've locked him blue.
Do you follow the process now?
Elisthantus is someone Wolf!Magorian is completely okay with lynching without further ado. Myself as well.
It would seem a number of folks on Magorian's list are fine lynches, depending on where the village wants to go.
But, not everyone on Magorian's list of suspects is someone he wants votes on.
Even if he can get a villager to place a vote there No-Questions-Asked.
That incriminates Hawk a bit, if Magorian flips wolf.
And frankly, I don't want to lynch anyone today that Magorian would easily lynch. Now that my cards are on the table, I cannot continue to rely on this method.
Follow the thought process. This is all in black and white in the thread itself dating back for days. You don't have to agree with my conclusion, Day One is my weakest day.
But this should FULLY explain my stance regarding Elisthantus, Magorian, and Hawk.
7. And it should be too detailed, and too true, for it to be anything but a villagery thing.... (He says, knowing full well all saying this will do, will get people to scumread him for saying so)
Let go of that instinct.
As I told Zander from Dragonmount recently, your gut finds wolves, because it is paranoia, it is fear, it is distrust.
But we developed an upper brain to give Exceptions- I know you can outthink the reflex.
It IS important to me to see if I can persuade you that I am a villager, as a villager- and it is a kind of new part of my villager game. This is not something I've been doing over the past 7 years. This is recent, probably 4 games recent.
As a matter of fact, the clear-villagers priority over find-wolves priority is as recent as April for me. My entire villager game has been changed over the past 2 months, due to interaction with players of that play style on 2+2.
All of a sudden it is important for me to self-clear, and to clear villagers- To AVOID the mislynch.
Before my stance was, if I lynch all the wolves, it doesn't matter who gets in my way, as long as they die, not me.
This was my cutthroat and bloodthirsty approach and it worked to an extent.
But I am always mindful of "the better". Better is not tunnelling all game, better is not allowing my wrongness to be exacerbated, better is not mislynching in the first place, better is finding villagers so that even if I cannot find the wolves directly, they're process of elimination. And, if I have villagers who see things that I do not see, their wisdom is more easily and readily accessible to me, if I have not lynched them off.
It seems rather obvious, but you develop a pattern that works for 7 years and you ignore the obvious, because it's no longer obvious. You're inside of it.
This post is too long, but I got on a stream of thought and I rode it out. If you care to read my brainwave, it is on full display.
It should read villager.
Yes, it's gonna give you the initial reaction of this guy is too concerned with clearing himself.
Yes, that's that paranoid gut reaction. That's good, that's your defense versus wolfy bull****.
But your brain is there for a reason, and I am very confident in this group's abilities now. I know you can outthink your gut on this one.
Assuming I have not failed completely due to Length Of Post, you should have all the tools you need, the key to the backdoor of my brain, and the thread itself.
I should be read-able, accurately, now. Tell me this isn't a good move for a villager.
I'm aware of the risks regarding Eli, and continuing along the path of self-clearing when it provokes that visceral distrust reaction.
I KNOW you're better than that reaction. You can reason it out. I trust in you, and when I say you, I mean Soot, Pharaoh, and basically everyone in this group.
I think Phone is going to have trouble following it because I provoked too much of his distrust reaction due to my methods.
I think Magorian has an agenda to get people to distrust me now, because I called him out.
I think there should be 1-2 wolves who also "think" all of this is "wolfy" because agenda.
But there should be a good 6 villagers... hell.... I can even name you.
Adaham <-------------This guy will get what I'm doing.
Ellisiantus
Llandy <-------------You will understand this process, even though you don't trust it at first, or find it to be quite alien.
Phonemelter <---- We're too far gone, he won't ever trust me again.
Magorian (W)
Soot <-------------I know you're going to get this. I believe in you.
Hawk (W)
Viera <-------------You will understand it, if you reason it out.
Xardob <-------------If you're a villager, I think you can follow it. You used to have a not-brief style, so you're going to get this.
Frisiandude
One of Frisian or Eli will also get this.
8. A wolf will either be opposed to this or play along. I can't predict what they choose to do.
But I think this post should get 6 people to understand my entire Day One. And that's why I'm going ahead and explaining it in dirty detail. All cards on the table.
If this is correct, and ESPECIALLY if Eli is not a wolf, and I'm praying my hesitation in that regard isn't misguided, then I truly think I've made all the risky but correct moves.
And I've lost about half of you again, this post is too long.Posting it anyway.
1. Here’s the first thing which raises my eyebrow. When you were initially asking for a consensus on Eli, he’d made what, 2 or 3 posts at most? And whilst people were giving feedback, you mused that he wasn’t a vanilla villager, but perhaps not a wolf. I.e., he might be a special. I have no idea how you even came up with that, because in those 2-3 posts there was absolutely nothing to indicate that Eli may have a special villager role. This, to me, represents an enormous leap that is nothing more than a random guess.
2. Next, you give your opinion on how a packmate of Eli’s might respond to your question, by being unsure of him or naming him a villager. There is also another alternative which you did not seem to consider; that if Eli is a wolf, his packmates may have said nothing about him. Not everybody answered your question. It would be just as easy for a wolf to refrain from answering to avoid giving their opinion, and your large post here seems to completely discount this variable.
3. This is where I start to be concerned. I know you probably do things very differently on your forum, and from what little I read of the Championship game I know that this very commonplace, but around here we do not call attention to our specials except in very particular circumstances. When we call attention to our specials, they tend to die early. It’s generally considered bad form for another player to point at somebody and say “Hey, I think this guy might be a special, let’s keep him around.”
As well, you say it is the case that if he’s a village power, then he’s going to look like a wolf. Er, what? Why should he look like a wolf if he’s a special? There is no blanket assessment for how innocent specials behave. It depends entirely on the individual. You then go on to say that wolves will want to vote for him, and that this is the case. But this is supposition, because we have no proven wolves yet. Sure, you could say that suspicious players want to vote for him, because that’s true if most of us say it, because we find different players suspicious for different reasons.
4. The three points you list here could be valid if you’re innocent. But they could also be valid if you’re a wolf. If I am reading this right, the general gist of this is “I’m defending somebody I think is a wolf in case they’re a special, which obviously makes me an innocent because a wolf would be stupid to do that.” You also rely heavily on “this is going to make me look bad” WIFOM. But again, you don’t know for certain how it will look to every player in this game. Just as a wagon rolling on Eli might not end with his lynch; you would be surprised at the sorts of things that can happen in our games.
5. You ask why you would take this risk of defending Eli as a villager or a wolf. As a villager, I don’t know, and your own explanation is as valid as anything I can speculate. As a wolf, then there are different possibilities depending on Eli’s alignment. If he is an innocent, then your "guess" turns out to be right. And it makes you look better. And if he does turn out to be a special, it makes you look smart for trying to protect him. And if he’s a wolf, there is always “It is wolfy for a wolf to defend his packmate against such impossible odds, I would never win that game as a wolf, so obviously I am an innocent.” It feels like you’re covering your bases and failing to accept responsibility for your potential future actions here. As in, "If I do this and I'm right, hooray for me, but if I'm wrong then I'm obviously innocent for being so wrong because no scum would make such a bad play on purpose."
The main problem I have with the whole thing is that it appears designed to show how innocent and maybe even how selfless you are, in taking a huge personal risk to protect innocents. And you know what? I too have, in the past, taken huge personal risks to protect innocents. I lynched my packmate in my first ever game to “protect” an innocent and even had a 10 page quote war with Melter to convince him that protecting an innocent was my plan all along. In my second game I wrote a moving, heart-felt confession that I was a panda (wolf) and enlisted the aid of the village in identifying and taking out our third-party vampire villain (granted, allowing my third, unmentioned packmate to then kill with impunity after I died). In my third villain game, I selflessly offered to take up a position of Watchman for the night, despite the fact that I was plagued at the time, and if I was voted into Watch it would mean no cure for me and it basically would have “outed” the one who converted me.
I’m not saying that just because I have done these things as scum means that you’re scum because you’re doing them now, but as something of an expert in putting a “greater good” spin on things, I am inherently suspicious of people who claim to be potentially sacrificing their own safety to protect innocents or act for the benefit of the village.
6. Your plan, whilst undoubtedly detailed, is just too convoluted for me to fully follow. I’ve said previously that at times I need to be hand-walked through things, but I just can’t follow where you’re going. You say you aren’t defending Eli, and yet your post clearly does offer a defence of him, and then a defence of your defence by claiming it is not a defence.
Your next part of the post, where you get back onto the subject of Mag, makes even less sense to me than your theories about Eli. The simple fact is, although I have some issues with Mags’ play, I just don’t see all the things you’re seeing. Your entire theory seems to hinge off Mag being confirmed wolf, but right now, he isn’t.
7. Again, I have found that when you’re (I’m) scum, the best way to tell a lie is to wedge it between two truths, coat it in sugar and get the villagers to want to eat it. So saying “it should be too detailed and too true to be anything but village,” does not really convince me. Because there are exceptions. I have been one. And knowing how conniving I can be in that situation makes me paranoid about how conniving others can be too. I think you’re a clever enough player to be able to pull off anything I think I could pull off. Take that as a compliment, even though I don’t understand most of what you’re getting at with your masterplan^™.
The things you are saying are just too complex for me to follow. There are masterplans^™ which work. For an example, see Seer-Adaham’s “gotcha” of Shatari in the last game. The premise behind his plan was easy to follow, it did not leave room for multiple interpretations of anything except who was Shatari’s packmate, and it was explained well. Most importantly, it was based on hard evidence that a wolf had been caught in a lie. Your plan is based in conjecture, and if even one of your threads unravels, it has the potential to just destroy your plan completely, which means the whole thing you just posted would need to be re-evaluated in light of new evidence, and attempting to evaluate it even once has been time-consuming and confusing.
8. “A wolf will either be opposed to this or play along.” <---so basically, any stance that player might take could be a wolf. There are only three stances anybody can take on your post. They either accept what you say and pat you on the back, they reject what you say and claim you’re a wolf, or they can’t follow or form an opinion on what you say. Saying “a wolf will either be opposed to this or play along” doesn’t really say anything at all. You additionally say you can’t predict what wolves will choose to do, and yet you predict that they will not only want to suspect/lynch Eli but are already doing it, and most of your post is based off predictions of what wolves and innocents will do.
TL;DR? A few bits and pieces of what you said make sense, but the majority goes over my head. I can’t operate at the level of complexity you seem to involve in your play, and I’m not sure I want to. I know you’ve said you like this level of play and find it fun, so I just hope you don’t feel you wasted your time posting what you did.
I'm about 3/4 of the way through my post about Xardob, but it's time for me to head off to work. I'll have to wrap up the rest tonight.
I'll unvote for the time being. To be clear, Kronic is still a top suspect for me. I'd just like to consider who I'd rather lynch today, Kronic or Pizza, and I'd like to see what Kronic posts after he's caught up.
I'll unvote for the time being. To be clear, Kronic is still a top suspect for me. I'd just like to consider who I'd rather lynch today, Kronic or Pizza, and I'd like to see what Kronic posts after he's caught up.
FrisianDude
Archduke
Readin'. More activity tomorrow. Tired.
FrisianDude 说:
Good, I was just about to @You and Hawk to ask if you could give some idea at who you're looking to lynch. I'd like to see where your suspicions are falling right now, and why.
Question still applies. To both.
Sorry typos; also tired.
Don't worry, I won't. But you have quite an uphill battle ahead of yourself. Last game, I caught Soot because he was doing a lot of things I would as a wolf. This game, I've seen several things I'd do as an innocent from him.Pharaoh X Llandy 说:
Why not both?
Yeah, it's the latter.
Xardob 说:Yay. Wait, I know what tonight means, another week of waiting.Magorian Aximand 说:
You're making a monster post just to make me regret baiting you so much, aren't you?
Yes, that is most definitely my primary purpose with this post.
No, it's a large post, but by no means a monster one. Just detailed.
Alright, I think I'll try to focus on what's actually going on it the game right now, for today. I haven't really paid attention to the stuff going on for the last ten pages as a whole at all yet. Still have four people left for my LoS, but that includes two of my strongest innocent reads (Face and Vieira) and two people I'd rather give some time to post more first (Hawk and Kronic), especially as there still isn't a deadline.
Apologies. Had a bit of a **** day. Decide to relaxate by doing chores and ****. I said hi to the vacuum cleaner from Llandy too. It told me to say hi back. Determined to get reading through the thread and writing more notes and giving y'all them, but the disillusion and frustration evident in the last few pages has rubbed on my mood somewhat, so that's annoying. **** y'all.
But seriously, I'm going to continue with my notesing. Maybe I'll take a break to ask some questions on recent posts, but for the most part, I'll be reading along and notesing until I've scoured the **** out of this.
But seriously, I'm going to continue with my notesing. Maybe I'll take a break to ask some questions on recent posts, but for the most part, I'll be reading along and notesing until I've scoured the **** out of this.
Sup' guys? Seems like I haven't missed a lot during my absence. Yeah, I'm the life of any party, I know.
Anyhoo, today long day (8am till 11:30pm) and tomorrow will be even worse, if possible. So yeah, don't you dare expecting anything more from than the courtesy drop in to say hi.
"Hi"
Anyhoo, today long day (8am till 11:30pm) and tomorrow will be even worse, if possible. So yeah, don't you dare expecting anything more from than the courtesy drop in to say hi.
"Hi"
Are you trying to goad me into giving an emotional response so my arguments will be less believable? Because you should know that I love you too much for that to be a possibility. 
Xardob 说:Of course not. Cheapening tactics like this would only diminish the glory of my victory over you.
I do feel that it's my duty to lighten the mood whenever possible, though. So some banter, boasting and trash talking is just to be expected.
Two week old Chinese food. Used kleenex! Soiled cat litter.
Am I doing this right?
*an
You got served!
You got served!
