[Werewolf] SMAC: Unity [Game ends!]

[Askthepizzaguy]

My stance on Elisianthus, and more regarding Magorian and Hawk.

I wanted to get data on Elisianthus, again what I said was not entirely at face value.

I was genuinely not sure where I stood on Eli, however, I suspected village power or wolf. So I asked the thread if this person is a villager or a wolf.

The thread said wolf, including people I suspected. But Eli didn't gain votes.

That was the most damning thing about Eli, however.

However, I also get the feeling that a packmate of Eli's will say he's a villager, or be unsure of him. That way they're not cornered into voting for Eli today.

Here's why I take a risk on Eli.

Say he's a wolf: There's already consensus that he is. My puny defense of Eli is going to do jack crap for him today, or even in the long term. I'm not even strongly defending him or attempting to change minds, I say leave him as a suspect, take care of him *in time*.

He survives to the final-ish rounds, then seriously consider lynching him.

But, say he's a village power: Then he's going to look a lot like a wolf AND wolves will be keen to vote for him.

This is the case.

This is why I'm taking the personal risk- Look at how people besides Magorian and Phone are reading me.

The biggest problem/scummy thing I've done so far is my stance on Eli. I'm aware of how I look when I defend Eli, a person who is in my top 3 suspects for wolves.

I'm quite aware. One thing you cannot suggest is that I did not go into a defense of Eli situation without knowing the following:

(A) It's a huge risk he's a wolf, he's on my wolf list. So, defending someone even I think could be a wolf, is a bad look for me.

(B) The consensus is that he's a wolf, so, defending him won't help him survive the game or even, if it came down to it, today. Look where everyone stands. A wagon starts on Eli and he's going to be lynched. My lone defense of Eli will be the thing that sticks out like a sore thumb if he's a wolf.

(C) I've pushed hard on too many others today, if I also defend a wolf, then this will be my record: approximately 4 villagers I've heavily suspected, assuming a three wolf system, plus my being a villager. 5 minimum if I were a wolf which is not the case. Plus a defense of a wolf.

There's no way I survive that game as a wolf.

If Eli were to be lynched and flip wolf, I'm almost permanently a mislynch this game. So, even as a villager, I'm risking the entire game on my stance- I cause an additional mislynch for village, in a small game where mislynches are not plentiful.

That's a massive risk.

Why would I take this risk as wolf or villager?

You fill in the blanks on my reasons for doing it as a wolf- obviously I'm defending a packmate, in Eli.

Or, look at it this way: Perhaps it is my intention to be the one guy who guessed his alignment correctly if he flips villager.

There are scummy motivations, if you think about it surface-level.

Think deeper. I'm not defending Eli. I'm pointing out that a certain other player Magorian has done much in his power to find mislynches today, and has not actually pushed his suspects, nor cleared them.

I am keeping my focus on my top suspect, and also pointing out his behavior toward Hawk has betrayed the fact that he does not really want to lynch Hawk.

So when I said Magorian, tell me to lynch Hawk, and I will, his hesitation is a clue.

He doesn't really believe I am a wolf, either. This suspicion came from the moment when I called him and Hawk both wolves.

Read back and find where his vote moves to me, and examine it from that perspective.

Examine the exchange where I ask for him to tell me to vote Hawk. I do more than tunnel my suspect, I am still keeping my mind open to the idea that my suspect is innocent, and my innocent is a suspect, so I ask and I poke.

And those little asks and pokes which look like villager pizzaguy asking his best buddy Magorian if he would like his assistance, are actually a form of interrogation just as pernicious and just as aggressive as the kind I displayed toward Phonemelter.

Better, Magorian is unaware I am suspecting such a connection when I ask him, so it can betray his real motivations when I ask him questions while he thinks I've locked him blue.

Do you follow the process now?

Elisthantus is someone Wolf!Magorian is completely okay with lynching without further ado. Myself as well.

It would seem a number of folks on Magorian's list are fine lynches, depending on where the village wants to go.

But, not everyone on Magorian's list of suspects is someone he wants votes on.

Even if he can get a villager to place a vote there No-Questions-Asked.

That incriminates Hawk a bit, if Magorian flips wolf.

And frankly, I don't want to lynch anyone today that Magorian would easily lynch. Now that my cards are on the table, I cannot continue to rely on this method.

Follow the thought process. This is all in black and white in the thread itself dating back for days. You don't have to agree with my conclusion, Day One is my weakest day.

But this should FULLY explain my stance regarding Elisthantus, Magorian, and Hawk.

And it should be too detailed, and too true, for it to be anything but a villagery thing.... (He says, knowing full well all saying this will do, will get people to scumread him for saying so)

Let go of that instinct.

As I told Zander from Dragonmount recently, your gut finds wolves, because it is paranoia, it is fear, it is distrust.

But we developed an upper brain to give Exceptions- I know you can outthink the reflex.

It IS important to me to see if I can persuade you that I am a villager, as a villager- and it is a kind of new part of my villager game. This is not something I've been doing over the past 7 years. This is recent, probably 4 games recent.

As a matter of fact, the clear-villagers priority over find-wolves priority is as recent as April for me. My entire villager game has been changed over the past 2 months, due to interaction with players of that play style on 2+2.

All of a sudden it is important for me to self-clear, and to clear villagers- To AVOID the mislynch.

Before my stance was, if I lynch all the wolves, it doesn't matter who gets in my way, as long as they die, not me.

This was my cutthroat and bloodthirsty approach and it worked to an extent.

But I am always mindful of "the better". Better is not tunnelling all game, better is not allowing my wrongness to be exacerbated, better is not mislynching in the first place, better is finding villagers so that even if I cannot find the wolves directly, they're process of elimination. And, if I have villagers who see things that I do not see, their wisdom is more easily and readily accessible to me, if I have not lynched them off.

It seems rather obvious, but you develop a pattern that works for 7 years and you ignore the obvious, because it's no longer obvious. You're inside of it.

This post is too long, but I got on a stream of thought and I rode it out. If you care to read my brainwave, it is on full display.

It should read villager.

Yes, it's gonna give you the initial reaction of this guy is too concerned with clearing himself.

Yes, that's that paranoid gut reaction. That's good, that's your defense versus wolfy bull****.

But your brain is there for a reason, and I am very confident in this group's abilities now. I know you can outthink your gut on this one.

Assuming I have not failed completely due to Length Of Post, you should have all the tools you need, the key to the backdoor of my brain, and the thread itself.

I should be read-able, accurately, now. Tell me this isn't a good move for a villager.

I'm aware of the risks regarding Eli, and continuing along the path of self-clearing when it provokes that visceral distrust reaction.

I KNOW you're better than that reaction. You can reason it out. I trust in you, and when I say you, I mean Soot, Pharaoh, and basically everyone in this group.

I think Phone is going to have trouble following it because I provoked too much of his distrust reaction due to my methods.

I think Magorian has an agenda to get people to distrust me now, because I called him out.

I think there should be 1-2 wolves who also "think" all of this is "wolfy" because agenda.

But there should be a good 6 villagers... hell.... I can even name you.

Adaham <-------------This guy will get what I'm doing.
Ellisiantus
Llandy <-------------You will understand this process, even though you don't trust it at first, or find it to be quite alien.
Phonemelter <---- We're too far gone, he won't ever trust me again.
Magorian (W)
Soot  <-------------I know you're going to get this. I believe in you.
Hawk (W)
Viera  <-------------You will understand it, if you reason it out.
Xardob  <-------------If you're a villager, I think you can follow it. You used to have a not-brief style, so you're going to get this.
Frisiandude

One of Frisian or Eli will also get this.

A wolf will either be opposed to this or play along. I can't predict what they choose to do.

But I think this post should get 6 people to understand my entire Day One. And that's why I'm going ahead and explaining it in dirty detail. All cards on the table.

If this is correct, and ESPECIALLY if Eli is not a wolf, and I'm praying my hesitation in that regard isn't misguided, then I truly think I've made all the risky but correct moves.

And I've lost about half of you again, this post is too long.  Posting it anyway.

 

[Pharaoh Llandy]

I had a feeling you might be offering your vote to Magorian to judge his response, but I didn't want to ask in case it ruined any Masterplans^tm that you were enacting. Like I said in my LoS, it's a shame he didn't take you up on that, I would have liked to have seen how it played out from both sides.

I'll have to give the rest of your post some careful thought.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

To be clear on Phonemelter-

There are tells and there are Tells.

I find that subtle and moderately accurate tells are good, good enough to apply pressure.

Look at the result, though- you keep an open mind and what happens.

Through the exchange, my gut kept telling me Phone was wolf, phone was wolf, oh god he's even more obvious wolf now.

And then it happened.

During a part where there was a breather between our exchanges, he continued giving leans and solving.

I find that, all too often, a wolf engaged with a villager pushing them hard forgets entirely to do that, especially when it gets powerful, heated, and thread-dominating.

I read that and it overrode my gut instincts. I've seen that too many times from villagers and not enough from wolves that I dropped it.

The reasons to suspect were there. But, when you see your top suspect villager-telling, it's time to move on.

I can't lock him villager but it's enough, and the thread reaction was such an incredible source of info for analysis later, that it is utterly bad play to lynch him today or soon.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

If he is a villager and he probably is, he's also consensus villager now.

That's an excellent and much better result for village than blind tunneling, which I'm afraid was a hallmark of my game for about 6 of those years.

 

[Troll]

That's a long ass tale, but all in all it fits in my read and more importantly answers the biggest holes I've seen in your otherwise solid play. I'd prefer a world where villager weren't compelled to lie for whatever reason (even as suspecting a special role is a relatively good one), but that does seem to fit the usual mindset of a person who likes to conduct all kinds of masterplans in WW.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

That's a long ass tale, but all in all it fits in my read and more importantly answers the biggest holes I've seen in your otherwise solid play. I'd prefer a world where villager weren't compelled to lie for whatever reason (even as suspecting a special role is a relatively good one), but that does seem to fit the usual mindset of a person who likes to conduct all kinds of masterplans in WW.

I know it throws people off when villagers lie, when I first began playing I felt like total honesty was always the best policy, excepting that when as a wolf you don't admit to being one.

I came across a player called Sasaki Kojiro on my native site who, in the third ever game on the site, way before I joined, claimed to be the cop in the first game that even featured one. He ate a murder, and was not the cop.

Easiest example. And of course the person(s) he said was innocent was therefore very much so.

Villagers should not lie without purpose- and the purpose has to be explained fully and it has to make some sense.

If they do so, they can get away with misdirection. Wolves also tend to assume villagers play on the level, which is level 1. That's why it's much easier to fool wolves than it is to fool villagers.

With experience, you have to get more fancy to fool wolves. Here, a straightforward bit of misdirection was enough, I feel. People don't know me and even if you know the gambit I pulled in Champs you're probably not going to suspect the constant and persistent lying method from a villager.

 

[Adaham]

To be honest, I'm a bit too sleepy right now to go through the whole story. I read half of it and thought.."hm...interesting stuff, gotta read that later when not tired", so that's what I'll do.

While I did consider a pizza-setup for a bit of time, maybe this post will alleviate those worries. Anyhow, that's not a top priority for me right now. Right now, I find it much more important to have Hawk and Eli finally show up again.

Frisian showed up and while it's kind of a typical inactive-returning-after-a-long-time reaction, I'm afraid we'll get something similar from always grumpy Hawk and curse-happy Eli. That doesn't go anywhere. So yeah, MahuD...any word from those lurky bastards?

 

[Troll]

That's a long ass tale, but all in all it fits in my read and more importantly answers the biggest holes I've seen in your otherwise solid play. I'd prefer a world where villager weren't compelled to lie for whatever reason (even as suspecting a special role is a relatively good one), but that does seem to fit the usual mindset of a person who likes to conduct all kinds of masterplans in WW.

I know it throws people off when villagers lie, when I first began playing I felt like total honesty was always the best policy, excepting that when as a wolf you don't admit to being one.

That's how I play it, except it's something that something I learned later. Originally I liked to try tricking the villains, but by now I've come to trust my gut and reasoning so much that I feel it's the safest way, so that I don't end up tricking myself instead. For example here I'm not quite convinced by your conclusions, though I'm leaning to believe that you are being honest. I'll just keep it all in mind as I read back on the rest of the players.

 

[Magorian Aximand]

Magorian

...

So far, Magorian has been the hardest person for me to read. He’s said some things which give me positive, innocent vibes, but then they are countered by things which I find either suspicious or odd/difficult to understand his motives. For the moment I consider him largely Neutral, but with a slight tendency to furry.

Hey Llandy, want to place a vote on me?

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Not much of a risk at the moment, so false bravado.

 

[Magorian Aximand]

You really shouldn't comment on things you don't yet understand.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Hey Magorian, want to place a vote on Hawk?

I understand this much: he's supposedly a suspect of yours and you could conceivably get him lynched today with my assistance.

So.

 

[Magorian Aximand]

If you had bothered to read anything I've actually said this game, you'd understand the problem in your reasoning. Don't worry, that'll be demonstrated shortly.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm also noting for posterity that you are suggesting I am a villager in that post 630, you're assuming I am not in the know.

This directly contradicts your long-ass case against me.

Sloppy work, wolf.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

隐藏: Don't order delivery!

In addition to the analysis of Pizza's play that I provided in my LoS, Pizza's alignment can be determined by revealing his utterly dishonest means of arguing.

Suspicion that precedes supporting reasons:

Pizza begins prepping his swap in this post. Downgrading to neutral because he hasn't seen anything good recently... sure. In light of his comment on why he found me "deep blue" I don't know why a lack of effort would make me less good rather than just a bad villager (something he's had no problem of accusing Phone of being), but sure. He then drops the vote only after I list a few positions (which shockingly don't line up with his own reads!) and say that I'm going to have to explain them later.

This is an important point in the process to follow, because anything and everything I do from then on is considered wolfish, no matter what it is, and the arguments Pizza presents later on that respond to my posts have nothing at all to do with this seemingly empty flip. The most substance it has is that I provided "explanation free reads", despite the fact that Pizza himself does this (as is pointed out by Phone) and I promised explanations to follow. But more on that later. What is relevant for this sections is that this represents a turning point at which Pizza has arbitrarily decided to spin everything a player does in a certain light, regardless of what they are, and his argument that coincides with this change does not survive later into the exchange.

Hypocrisy, and why it matters:

Is bad reasoning worth following because humans reason imperfectly? No, of course not. Making an error in reasoning does not make a person a wolf, but when an idea is shown to be a bad one, when a conclusion is shown not to follow from a set of premises, it should be abandoned. What reason would a villager have to maintain an idea when it has been shown to be unsound? None. It is the persistence in an argument when the failure in the reasoning has been demonstrated that indicates woflishness, not the mistake itself. Crying, "Villagers can make mistakes!" is a red herring, and isn't an excuse to perpetuate those mistakes to the detriment of the village.

When Player A, presumably a villager, argues that another players behavior indicates that they are a wolf, but Player A also exhibits this behavior, this demonstrates that the behavior cannot indicate wolfishness. QED.

So how hypocritical is Pizza?

• He claims explanation free reads are wolfish, but does the same himself.
• He claims my LoS is problematic because it lists a lot of wolves, when he himself defends the process that has led him to "read" a high number of wolves.
• He claims every word should be analyzed, but asks Phone to ignore half the game to this point.
• He claims that not listing villager "reads" is wolfish because it's too difficult and risky to change those reads when it's convenient, when he's done exactly that in his flip.

Blatant falsehoods:

Pizza's case rests on a number of falsehoods, and his extrapolation of the idea does as well.

His main problem with my LoS is that I list a high number of wolves, and don't give any real reasons why my innocents are innocents. He accuses me of a lot of fence sitting. How true is this?

Well, out of ten players I list 5 people I suspect (3 of which more than the other two), 1 neutral, and 4 players I think are likely innocent. Is that out of the ordinary? With only one neutral read, how can I be fence sitting? Is it not reasonable to find problems with the play of more people than there are wolves?

How about the innocents? Do I really give no reasons for my thoughts on them? Take a look... Frisian is more adventurous than I expect him to be as a wolf, Vieira isn't actually a nervous wreck (usual as a wolf) and is hunting like I know he can as a good guy, Phone fought to keep his conversation with Pizza on point, and didn't let it distract him from hunting, and Soot (the weakest reason given, but still a reason) seems very genuine and I can find no malicious intent with his posts. I tried to get Pizza to acknowledge this, even just suggesting that he reread only the entry on Frisian, but this went ignored.

Then his continuation of the idea is that I would claim that I stopped the day one mislynch of Phone because I repeatedly "read" him as a villager. Is this true? As it turns out, I only mentioned Phoney a single time over the course of their discussion. Yes, I read him villager. Once. In one short sentence. Does that constitute a strong defense of a player whose bandwagon never actually got rolling? Nope. More fiction.

The ignoring of counterarguments:

One striking feature of this exchange has been Pizza's unwillingness to acknowledge even the existence of arguments presented to counter his own. He regularly quotes a post, responds to only a small part of it, and ignores the rest. He has even gone as far to say that I haven't actually presented any arguments at all.

When I called him out on this, he took the incredibly dishonest approach of pretending I was claiming he wasn't posting enough and that my demands were unrealistic. When I corrected that idea and explained, again, what I meant, he simply persisted.

Claiming to know what cannot be known:

The accusation that I was stalling and deflecting earlier today rests on the notion that Pizza can know that I lied when I claimed I didn't have time. How could this possibly be substantiated? How could he possibly know what was happening at that time in my life? This is a further demonstration of his determination to read everything I have done as wolfish, no matter what it is, and it is horribly dishonest.

Other wolfy behavior:

One rather terrible post, here, presents the horrible reasoning that even if he's wrong about me and Hawk it will be okay because our deaths will clear (in his mind) enough innocents to win the game. "Don't worry about it guys. Even if I'm wrong, killing my targets will get us to the promised land!" This is particularly dangerous reasoning to advance on the day we have the least information and are most likely wrong in our assessment of the game. And do the math; with an expected 3 wolves that would put us at LoL.

As has already been mentioned, Pizza feels a near constant desire to declare his own innocence, and admonish any player who fails to recognize it. Not only is this an attempt to "hide the human in the humor" as I put it earlier, it's an attempt to cajole players into going along with it. Because if they don't buy it and he does turn out to be innocent, they're a "bad player".



I had more to say, but it's nearly 4 in the morning. Time for sleep.

^
Yet there are things I do not yet understand, and I'm not reading his posts, and there are problems with my reasoning.

Gosh, it's like I'm a villager. How interesting.

 

[Phonemelter]

I'm going to start reading what I missed yesterday and hopefully get a response in. However, I will give my thoughts on one thing that I might have mentioned before:

I know it bit my in the ass in the TT game, but I am wary about all the suspicion on Kronic and Hawk. Both are two players that I would have guessed before the game started would gain quick suspicion because Hawk because it's Hawk, Kronic because he hasn't played in a while. While both have good reasons to be suspected (hell, even I though both were wolfy in my initial read), I am not sure how useful a lynch on either of them would be at this point because of a) how little they have posted and b) it is a rather easy train to ride. If I had to choose between either of them, I would go with Kronic because his initial reactions seem more wolfy to me, people look to be more split on where they stand with him (since I last checked), and due to the meta of Hawk's "fence-sitting" reminding me a whole lot of what I have seen from him in the past as an innocent (especially the TT game), making me more unsure of him.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: Magorian Aximand

I mean, everyone else is doing lime green, so why should I not *join the bandwagon*.

 

[Magorian Aximand]

I'm also noting for posterity that you are suggesting I am a villager in that post 630, you're assuming I am not in the know.

This directly contradicts your long-ass case against me.

Sloppy work, wolf.

... you're clearly not "in the know" about the purpose of my question to Llandy. You can be a wolf and not understand what I'm doing. You really need to slow down and think before you post.

^
Yet there are things I do not yet understand, and I'm not reading his posts, and there are problems with my reasoning.

Gosh, it's like I'm a villager. How interesting.

... what? Did you bother to actually read that at all?

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

I like how you're giving me advice that's a little patronizing here.

I always give my top wolf suspects advice on how to play better. <----Sarcasm used properly.

 

[Magorian Aximand]

What I'm doing is further demonstrating the fact that you're making a conscious effort to read every action I take as a wolfish one, regardless of what it is I'm actually trying to accomplish. This is the behavior of a wolf who is determined to paint a picture of a player as a wolf so they can mislynch them, not the actions of an investigative innocent.