The very short of it would be "PilgriMagorian is wolf, Cado is the most likely to be innocent, and I need to look back on a few things because my gut has been going back and forth between you and Adaham for the #2 spot."
Nipplemelter said:The very short of it would be "PilgriMagorian is wolf, Cado is the most likely to be innocent, and I need to look back on a few things because my gut has been going back and forth between you and Adaham for the #2 spot."
Nipplemelter said:"Adaham is most likely to be Jeep's packer"
Magorian Aximand said:... so the whole discussion about the risks demonstrates that I didn't consider them? ... huh?
Adaham said:One thing, though: You guys have to be honest to yourselves and to each other...if all you wanna do is talk and finally lynch me (like I'm pretty sure it's Llandy's intention), then save your breath, as the game will be over.
Magorian Aximand said:Nipplemelter: The problem here is similar to what I wrote above for Adaham. The only difference is the method Nipple used to handle the situation. He, rather successfully, tried to bury the subject with a quote war. Through those pages and pages of back and forth, he never actually came close to addressing the problem with Sheep's quote mining. He obfuscated the issue, and despite multiple clear explanations, he never came clean or admitted error on the right problem. Because, again, how could he? Were he to actually listen to what Calodine was saying, he'd be forced to join the sheep wagon. But by burying the issue amid wall of text after wall of text with a convenient "misinterpretation" (something I find to be rather impossible), he turned it into something enough people didn't want to dig through. And hey, Tuckles was lynched.
Nipplemelter said:@Magorian:
I'm confused as to what situation you are referring to when talking about me, because I had a lot of problems with Sheep on Day 1 and said that I was most willing to lynch him or Pilgrim at the end of the day (though voting swung to Tuckles, so that never happened). Plus, I did admit error when the quote issue was explained to me.
Nipplemelter said:Also, I don't see how noticing the quote mining would "force" anyone to jump on the Sheep wagon. The only people who cared enough about it seemed to be Cado and Avian. Do you think everyone else to be suspicious for not jumping on the wagon immediately?
Magorian Aximand said:Also on my phone here, so I'm limited, but basing your entire view of the game on the chance that the wolves might have had a specific thought about a hunch from a player who historically is cryptic and goes on gut, as though this were an exhaustive account of the possible reasons to kill Xardob, is rather foolish.
Put that paltry, and exclusively WIFOM, evidence next to the veritable mountain that is your defense of Sheep, attempts to bury Sheep's quote mining, attempts to discredit Calodine (and Ativan? Or was it just Adaham who did that. Gotta read back), and the rather large amount of sense you and Adaham make as a pack given your positions and voting history, and I think our choices here are rather clear.
The long night gave me the time to get all caught up, thankfully. I should have an up to date LoS posted shortly. I'll be rather this week, but I'll do my best to stay active from my phone.
Nipplemelter said:1. Yes, wolves suspect their packies while voting for someone else, but my point was that on Day 1 there were not enough people to be swayed over to the side of Sheep. If you looked at Day 2, at the beginning I gave Xardob reasons why Sheep was likely a wolf, and up until I decided to vote for Avian, was pretty much trying to point out the wolfiness of Sheep to a degree that a packie would likely not do with the amount of votes on him. I know Llandy has gone over it a million times, but take a look at her actions too. She was so ada(ha)mant on not voting for Sheep and said she wasn't going to switch even though she found him suspicious, until she decided to switch over for him. Do you think that is not potentially a similar in "I'm going to think this guy is a wolf but instead be voting for another person" (until she switched)?
Pharaoh X Llandy said:Right. I'm going to do something I told myself I wasn't going to do. Because I've done some thinking, and this is the conclusion I've come to. Short bullet points because I'm fed up of my own rambling WoTs and I'm sure everyone else is too:
- As it stands, we're looking at either a no-lynch or the lynch of somebody I believe to be innocent.
- Viera said he'd drop a vote in before deadline. There's still time for him to do this. But the only choice he has, if he doesn't want to be accused of being no-voting poop like Tuckles was, is to lynch Cal. Right now, my vote, where it is, is useless.
- I'm pretty sure that Pilgrim was a wolf and he seemed to have it in for Cal too. But judging by Nipple's recent behaviour, I have to accept the possibility that I screwed up on my analysis of both him, and Pilgrim. Pilgrim's posts were often abrasive and confrontational. Maybe he was just a jerk.
- There is now a chance that Vieira's caught up with the thread and will be casting his vote soon. Backed into a corner, he's probably going to vote Cal. If he's not a wolf after all, he needs to have a second option.
- I really hoped I'd be able to make a case for lynching Adaham today.
- My vote could even the playing field. We might still get a no-lynch. We might still get a Cal lynch. But now at least there's a 1 in 3 chance we'll get a Sheep lynch.
I only hope Vieira makes the right choice, because now I feel like a dirty flip-flopper
unvote; vote Venerable Sheep
Pharaoh X Llandy said:Nipplemelter said:Yes, she had Sheep on her list as #3 or #4 mostly due to others' arguments, but she was incredibly opposed to switching over to Sheep. She explained this was to protect someone she thought was innocent, which is fine, but why wait until Cado was in danger of being lynched instead of when Avian was at risk, whom she also thought was innocent?
I thought I'd explained this adequately in my list of bullet points when I changed my vote for Sheep but I can go over it again if you'd like.
First, to get this out of the way, the reason I didn't change my vote when you voted Ativan and Adaham followed suit, was because although I was very concerned you were going to get an innocent lynched, changing my vote to Sheep at that stage would have accomplished nothing. Everybody who wasn’t voting for Sheep was looking for an alternative to Sheep. Ativan had two votes on him; yours and Adaham's. I thought Xardob was pretty sure to follow suit because he and Adaham had been collaborating all day. And with three votes, I worried that the last two players (Sheep and Pilgrim) who'd been waving red flags for me with some of their posts, would jump at the chance to lynch an innocent. Changing my vote to Sheep would not have affected that, because Sheep wasn't going to vote for himself and I doubted Pilgrim was going to vote for him either. Both Adaham and Xardob had made it pretty clear they were going to keep their votes off Sheep to deny what they thought was a CW/Ativan/Cal pack a victory. In the end, it turned out my concern was for nothing, because it didn't play out that way.
The whole Sheep/Cal situation was a very different scenario. We'd just had one player substituted for another. Vieira had said that he was going to read up on the thread, but I didn't know how much he'd be able to absorb in such a short time, and I was worried he might feel pressured into taking the easy vote (Cal) thus removing another person I considered innocent from the village. At this stage, the danger to Cal was more urgent than the danger to Ativan; Cal had four votes on him, and it was only a few hours before deadline.
All I knew at this stage was that one of my wolf suspects had just been replaced. If Vieira was a wolf, I figured he'd probably vote Cal anyway so it might not even matter what I did. But, and this is the most important part, if there was even a slight chance that I was wrong about Pilgrim then I had to give Vieira another option.
Here is the link to my post where I attempt to summarise my train of thought and reasons for switching to a Sheep vote: http://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php/topic,313657.msg7464282.html#msg7464282
And you know what? It's a good job I did switch my vote. If I hadn't, then by deadline time Cal would have still had 4 votes on him, and Vieira would not have voted yet giving you no impetus to change your vote either. At that stage, it would have been more beneficial for you to stick with your vote on Cal and hope Vieira was going to vote that way. So damn me for my change in vote if you like, but if I hadn't changed, I'm willing to bet that you wouldn't have changed either. And if ejnomad had counted Vieira's four-second-late vote, we would have had a no-lynch and we'd ALL be at each others throats right now, instead of having bagged a wolf.
Nipplemelter said:For reference, here are my previous thoughts specifically on Pilgrim:
Nipplemelter said:Some more current suspect thoughts:
1. Suspicious Pilgrim - Bad suggestion of wanting quicker nights. Repeats what has already been said without adding to it. Ignores accusations against him. Trying to hide in the shadows while CW takes the heat much?
Nipplemelter said:
- Suspicious Pilgrim - Goes after the easiest target right after himself (aka Llandy) and dismisses all arguments previously against him because they are "asinine." He also quotes me for some reason in reference to something I was not even commenting on. Obviously going after Llandy with too much aggression for my tastes on a player that is clearly new to the game. Yeah, I get that we can't go easy on the newbies, but my god this is such a "look at me contribute while not contributing much at all" post. You think Llandy is "shady as ****?" YOU are shady as ****. Additionally, he calls Llandy out for being under the radar and non-committal... even though he has been even more under the radar and even more non-committal. Why go through all that trouble to call her out and ends it with "I don't want to lynch the new kid" and places no vote.
Nipplemelter said:
- Suspicious Pilgrim's post here and his recovery also makes me feel uneasy (though he has made me feel that way all game). His reluctance to vote for Tuckles could be that of an innocent who honestly doesn't feel like Tuckles was a wolf, but he did make an analysis of Tuckles earlier on that would suggest otherwise. Unwilling to put the nail in the coffin during crunch time and nearly causing a no-lynch (which Soot would have prevented, but that doesn't really matter) under those circumstances makes me think Pilgrim is a wolf who didn't want to have any blood on his hands knowing Tuckles would come out innocent.
Nipplemelter said:Pilgrim: Every time he posts he says he is going to post more, but never does. Wonderful. Ironically, he thinks Cado's vote on Sheep is rash and hurrying though the day. Didn't someone say on Day 1 that they wanted shorter days? Who could that have been? The only post he has today isn't the worst, but he doesn't take much of a position on anyone, much like what he did on Day 1. His vote at the end of the previous day is interesting because, combined with his unwillingness to take a stance on anything, it looks as if he is trying to play a wolf that is trying to blend in by not being overly controversial or polarizing to the village. Aside from all that, I've said other things about him, but these are the most recent developments.
Nipplemelter said:Pilgrim/Vieira is also interesting, especially since Pilgrim was never fond of the idea of lynching Sheep. Yeah, Vieira went that way in the end, but there was too much pressure to go that way and, as I'm being accused of, it is better for "brownie points" since he is the new guy. He's been the most ambivalent of the group in his suspicions of people, which could point at wolf trying to float along, which would also explain why he was worried about switching to Tuckles: he knew an innocent was going to be lynched and didn't want to be blamed for it.
Nipplemelter said:Oh, and here was the case I made against Sheep for Xardob:
Nipplemelter said:Xardob said:As opposed to us now being stuck between Sheep and Sheep?
Which would you rather have? And no, we aren't necessarily stuck with Sheep, but he has done nothing to make his case look any better (in my eyes).
I can see the reasoning against Sheep, but I'm not at all convinced he's a wolf. I'll ask again, if someone can sum the case against him, I'd appreciate.
A brief list of my thoughts of him:
- He only has 8 posts, with only about 5 of them having any sort of content. Lurky.
- After getting called out for the poor reasoning behind his vote on Soot and the misquote of Cado, he claims that the post was to "distance Cado from Soot," sidestepping questions brought about it.
- He hasn't made an LoS or ever talked much about very many people - only really been involved with situations surrounding himself.
- Mentions twice that Soot wouldn't be a good Day 1 lynch... when nobody was ever considering it in the first place. Strange and sounds like a preemptive cover-up.
- Claims his post against Cado and Soot brought up fresh perspectives from other players, which makes no sense because all it brought was people pointing out his flawed logic.
- Is ignoring people's questions against him and writing it off as a bandwagon.
- Says lynching Tuckles would be no loss... and is now saying Cado is wolfy because of wanting to lynch Tuckles rather than having a no-lynch. And if Cado is so clearly wolfy, then why is he voting for CW instead?
You can also look back through his posts, since there are few enough.
If possible, can you also expand on your thoughts with more specifics? It isn't helping any of us that you are just saying "yeah, I think these guys are okay and those guys aren't."
Adaham said:Then came Magorian and - oh boy - is he acting strange. The only thing of note he's delivered so far is a somewhat biased recap of day 1, in which he took the convenient position of joining the choir of "Sheep was as obvious as it gets"-people. The whole summary felt rather biased in a way, that he immediately put me on the first spot of suspects.
Adaham said:@ Magorian: Like Llandy, I do agree with everything you said, except for the things you said about me. But all the other stuff is really good