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[Werewolf] Crusade on Castle Mengelberg, (Werewolves Win!)

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Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
The very short of it would be "PilgriMagorian is wolf, Cado is the most likely to be innocent, and I need to look back on a few things because my gut has been going back and forth between you and Adaham for the #2 spot."
 
Nipplemelter said:
The very short of it would be "PilgriMagorian is wolf, Cado is the most likely to be innocent, and I need to look back on a few things because my gut has been going back and forth between you and Adaham for the #2 spot."

Well, that's something at least. If you can elaborate at some point over the next few days that would be great.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
That's the point. It would also be nice to hear those papaya PilgriMagorian has been promising since the previous night, especially since he has shifted from "Adaham is most likely to be Jeep's packer" to "for my next act, I'm going to vote incredibly early for Facemelter in a lynch or lose situation without considering the risks."
 
... so the whole discussion about the risks demonstrates that I didn't consider them? ... huh? You really are excellent at forgetting what is inconvenient for you.

That LoS will be coming up tonight, when I'm home from work.
 

Adaham

Baron
Sorry again, but today was very busy and I had no time to write a proper post. I've read it all and - in short - must say that I'm surprised at how weak Magorian's play is. Who does he want to fool with this act? To paraphrase, his early vote on Nipple was "the wolfiest thing I've ever seen". But I guess I'm not entitled to delivering these kind of lines.

Anyhoo, I wanted to make a bit of a LoS thingy, but for that I need a bit more time than I have now at hand. Hopefully tomorrow will be better.

One thing, though: You guys have to be honest to yourselves and to each other...if all you wanna do is talk and finally lynch me (like I'm pretty sure it's Llandy's intention), then save your breath, as the game will be over. So even if you believe to be sure of my guilt, please consider trying to peg the "other" wolf today, as otherwise we don't need to talk about things.

I'll give some good reasoning for my suspicions right now tomorrow.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
Magorian Aximand said:
... so the whole discussion about the risks demonstrates that I didn't consider them? ... huh?

I means I disagree with your reasoning that the risk was worth taking. Regardless of statistics, the vote itself is wolfy move.
 
Adaham said:
One thing, though: You guys have to be honest to yourselves and to each other...if all you wanna do is talk and finally lynch me (like I'm pretty sure it's Llandy's intention), then save your breath, as the game will be over.

Myeah, I'd prefer to err on the side of caution. If you think I'm wasting my time then you've no need to read what I come up with, and fear not; it's my time to waste.

I did hope to have a WoT up last night but I took an impromptu nap then had some other things to sort. Realistically I'm looking towards weekend now.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
While I have time I am going to address a few things that I have already addressed, but I want to hammer in the point to show how weak Mag's points against me are. Later I'll try to make a post point out all the wolfy things about Pilgtim.

Magorian Aximand said:
Nipplemelter: The problem here is similar to what I wrote above for Adaham. The only difference is the method Nipple used to handle the situation. He, rather successfully, tried to bury the subject with a quote war. Through those pages and pages of back and forth, he never actually came close to addressing the problem with Sheep's quote mining. He obfuscated the issue, and despite multiple clear explanations, he never came clean or admitted error on the right problem. Because, again, how could he? Were he to actually listen to what Calodine was saying, he'd be forced to join the sheep wagon. But by burying the issue amid wall of text after wall of text with a convenient "misinterpretation" (something I find to be rather impossible), he turned it into something enough people didn't want to dig through. And hey, Tuckles was lynched.

1. We all already discussed the whole "burying the quote mining" point, but why on Earth would I, someone normally goes back and rereads parts of thread often and expects everyone to, believe that getting in a fabricated quote war with Cado would bury Sheep's quote-mining? There is nothing to bury; this isn't ****ing 4chan. Sheep's post happened on page 6, and my war started on page 11. You'd think that if I wanted to try to cover Sheep's post I would have done it earlier, before people actually discussed it (which obviously would happen either way, making it pointless to do). It isn't like everyone was going to be "woah, look at this quote war! wait, who was I suspicious of again? oh hey, this Sheep guy looks innocent."

2. As said before, I don't understand how noticing anything short of a roleclaim would "force" anyone to join a bandwagon on a player. Xardob noticed the mining, but didn't see it as particularly suspicious, and he was innocent. CW didn't go for Sheep, and yet she was innocent. Llandy didn't go for Sheep, Adaham didn't go for Sheep, and Pilgrim didn't go for Sheep. Point is, not everybody saw it as something as a cause jump on the wagon, including people we know to be innocent. As my thoughts originally were on Day 1, I would have rather gone with Sheep, but we were not able to get more people to that side at the end of the day because Xardob, Adaham, and Llandy were steadfast in their votes, and CW and Tuckles were nowhere to be seen.

quote author=Magorian Aximand link=topic=313657.msg7487673#msg7487673 date=1413938746]
Nipplemelter said:
@Magorian:

I'm confused as to what situation you are referring to when talking about me, because I had a lot of problems with Sheep on Day 1 and said that I was most willing to lynch him or Pilgrim at the end of the day (though voting swung to Tuckles, so that never happened). Plus, I did admit error when the quote issue was explained to me.
Nipplemelter said:
Also, I don't see how noticing the quote mining would "force" anyone to jump on the Sheep wagon. The only people who cared enough about it seemed to be Cado and Avian. Do you think everyone else to be suspicious for not jumping on the wagon immediately?

Having listed a few suspicions of a player does not absolve you of your attempts to obfuscate the most clear evidence against them. Wolves often "suspect" their packmates, while happily lynching a more convenient target. What is it you did, again? Oh, right.

What you admitted error on was not the central issue. As evidenced by Cal repeatedly telling you that you still weren't getting it, well after that fact. I'll be sure to quote the relevant bits when I'm back to a computer.

Seeing the quote mining for what it was would force suspicion because of the extreme level of dishonesty it demonstrates. You and Adaham stand out in your reaponses for the reasons I outlined in my LoS. I mean really, what Sheep did amounts to this:

Mag: I can't stand people who think that homosexuals shouldn't have the right to marry.
SheepAnalog: OMG! Mag said, "homosexuals shouldn't have the right to marry"!! How appalling!

Does an innocent have any cause to use such dishonesty? No. And that's what you've tried to hide from the village.
[/quote]


By the way Mag, if you want to see an attempt to discredit Cado, check out this post by one of your past lives.

1. Yes, wolves suspect their packies while voting for someone else, but my point was that on Day 1 there were not enough people to be swayed over to the side of Sheep. If you looked at Day 2, at the beginning I gave Xardob reasons why Sheep was likely a wolf, and up until I decided to vote for Avian, was pretty much trying to point out the wolfiness of Sheep to a degree that a packie would likely not do with the amount of votes on him. I know Llandy has gone over it a million times, but take a look at her actions too. She was so ada(ha)mant on not voting for Sheep and said she wasn't going to switch even though she found him suspicious, until she decided to switch over for him. Do you think that is not potentially a similar in "I'm going to think this guy is a wolf but instead be voting for another person" (until she switched)?

2. At some point I had moved on from the initial screw-up of my arguments against Cado and moved to points that had absolutely nothing to do with anything that was misconstrued. If you remember, I was asking for clarification on some of the things he said because I wasn't sure I was properly understanding them in the first place.

Magorian Aximand said:
Also on my phone here, so I'm limited, but basing your entire view of the game on the chance that the wolves might have had a specific thought about a hunch from a player who historically is cryptic and goes on gut, as though this were an exhaustive account of the possible reasons to kill Xardob, is rather foolish.

Put that paltry, and exclusively WIFOM, evidence next to the veritable mountain that is your defense of Sheep, attempts to bury Sheep's quote mining, attempts to discredit Calodine (and Ativan? Or was it just Adaham who did that. Gotta read back), and the rather large amount of sense you and Adaham make as a pack given your positions and voting history, and I think our choices here are rather clear.



The long night gave me the time to get all caught up, thankfully. I should have an up to date LoS posted shortly. I'll be rather this week, but I'll do my best to stay active from my phone.

1. My entire view of the game is based off more than just what Xardob's "hunch" was. I'm not pulling random suspicious on PilgriMagorian out of my ass, and that one point about the "hunch" I've been making just wraps it all together.

2. I never actually made a defense against Sheep. Near the end I was saying he was more likely innocent because I went from thinking a lynch on Avian would give us the most information to "he is likely to be the wolf in all of this, which would make Sheep likely not a wolf," but I wasn't defending his actions. If I really cared that much I wouldn't have switched my vote on him.

3. My positions on people have been a lot different than Adaham's. What of this game have you exactly read?

4. If you want to see a post trying to discredit Cado, check out this one[/quote] from one of your past lives.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
Whoops, there is an error in there. I meant to put the line after the "hr" as for point #4 on the last quote (the one I ****ed up) and removed that one. Either way it is the same thing, but I screwed up the editing.

 
Nipplemelter said:
1. Yes, wolves suspect their packies while voting for someone else, but my point was that on Day 1 there were not enough people to be swayed over to the side of Sheep. If you looked at Day 2, at the beginning I gave Xardob reasons why Sheep was likely a wolf, and up until I decided to vote for Avian, was pretty much trying to point out the wolfiness of Sheep to a degree that a packie would likely not do with the amount of votes on him. I know Llandy has gone over it a million times, but take a look at her actions too. She was so ada(ha)mant on not voting for Sheep and said she wasn't going to switch even though she found him suspicious, until she decided to switch over for him. Do you think that is not potentially a similar in "I'm going to think this guy is a wolf but instead be voting for another person" (until she switched)?

Oh. My. God. This again? Seriously?

Yes, take a look at my actions all you like. But I'll save everybody the trouble of having to go looking for my explanations (and also save myself having to explain it again) by quoting myself for the record. Once more. With feeling.

Pharaoh X Llandy said:
Right. I'm going to do something I told myself I wasn't going to do. Because I've done some thinking, and this is the conclusion I've come to. Short bullet points because I'm fed up of my own rambling WoTs and I'm sure everyone else is too:

  • As it stands, we're looking at either a no-lynch or the lynch of somebody I believe to be innocent.
  • Viera said he'd drop a vote in before deadline. There's still time for him to do this. But the only choice he has, if he doesn't want to be accused of being no-voting poop like Tuckles was, is to lynch Cal. Right now, my vote, where it is, is useless.
  • I'm pretty sure that Pilgrim was a wolf and he seemed to have it in for Cal too. But judging by Nipple's recent behaviour, I have to accept the possibility that I screwed up on my analysis of both him, and Pilgrim. Pilgrim's posts were often abrasive and confrontational. Maybe he was just a jerk.
  • There is now a chance that Vieira's caught up with the thread and will be casting his vote soon. Backed into a corner, he's probably going to vote Cal. If he's not a wolf after all, he needs to have a second option.
  • I really hoped I'd be able to make a case for lynching Adaham today.
  • My vote could even the playing field. We might still get a no-lynch. We might still get a Cal lynch. But now at least there's a 1 in 3 chance we'll get a Sheep lynch.

I only hope Vieira makes the right choice, because now I feel like a dirty flip-flopper  :???:

unvote; vote Venerable Sheep

Pharaoh X Llandy said:
Nipplemelter said:
Yes, she had Sheep on her list as #3 or #4 mostly due to others' arguments, but she was incredibly opposed to switching over to Sheep. She explained this was to protect someone she thought was innocent, which is fine, but why wait until Cado was in danger of being lynched instead of when Avian was at risk, whom she also thought was innocent?

I thought I'd explained this adequately in my list of bullet points when I changed my vote for Sheep but I can go over it again if you'd like.

First, to get this out of the way, the reason I didn't change my vote when you voted Ativan and Adaham followed suit, was because although I was very concerned you were going to get an innocent lynched, changing my vote to Sheep at that stage would have accomplished nothing. Everybody who wasn’t voting for Sheep was looking for an alternative to Sheep. Ativan had two votes on him; yours and Adaham's. I thought Xardob was pretty sure to follow suit because he and Adaham had been collaborating all day. And with three votes, I worried that the last two players (Sheep and Pilgrim) who'd been waving red flags for me with some of their posts, would jump at the chance to lynch an innocent. Changing my vote to Sheep would not have affected that, because Sheep wasn't going to vote for himself and I doubted Pilgrim was going to vote for him either. Both Adaham and Xardob had made it pretty clear they were going to keep their votes off Sheep to deny what they thought was a CW/Ativan/Cal pack a victory. In the end, it turned out my concern was for nothing, because it didn't play out that way.

The whole Sheep/Cal situation was a very different scenario. We'd just had one player substituted for another. Vieira had said that he was going to read up on the thread, but I didn't know how much he'd be able to absorb in such a short time, and I was worried he might feel pressured into taking the easy vote (Cal) thus removing another person I considered innocent from the village. At this stage, the danger to Cal was more urgent than the danger to Ativan; Cal had four votes on him, and it was only a few hours before deadline.

All I knew at this stage was that one of my wolf suspects had just been replaced. If Vieira was a wolf, I figured he'd probably vote Cal anyway so it might not even matter what I did. But, and this is the most important part, if there was even a slight chance that I was wrong about Pilgrim then I had to give Vieira another option.

Here is the link to my post where I attempt to summarise my train of thought and reasons for switching to a Sheep vote:  http://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php/topic,313657.msg7464282.html#msg7464282

And you know what? It's a good job I did switch my vote. If I hadn't, then by deadline time Cal would have still had 4 votes on him, and Vieira would not have voted yet giving you no impetus to change your vote either. At that stage, it would have been more beneficial for you to stick with your vote on Cal and hope Vieira was going to vote that way. So damn me for my change in vote if you like, but if I hadn't changed, I'm willing to bet that you wouldn't have changed either. And if ejnomad had counted Vieira's four-second-late vote, we would have had a no-lynch and we'd ALL be at each others throats right now, instead of having bagged a wolf.

If you still can't understand my reasoning for switching my vote, or if you find it really suspicious, then yes, I must totally be a wolf for trying to even the playing field and giving Vieira an option other than voting Calodine.
 
Nipplemelter said:
For reference, here are my previous thoughts specifically on Pilgrim:

Nipplemelter said:
Some more current suspect thoughts:

1. Suspicious Pilgrim - Bad suggestion of wanting quicker nights. Repeats what has already been said without adding to it. Ignores accusations against him. Trying to hide in the shadows while CW takes the heat much?

Nipplemelter said:
  • Suspicious Pilgrim - Goes after the easiest target right after himself (aka Llandy) and dismisses all arguments previously against him because they are "asinine." He also quotes me for some reason in reference to something I was not even commenting on. Obviously going after Llandy with too much aggression for my tastes on a player that is clearly new to the game. Yeah, I get that we can't go easy on the newbies, but my god this is such a "look at me contribute while not contributing much at all" post. You think Llandy is "shady as ****?" YOU are shady as ****. Additionally, he calls Llandy out for being under the radar and non-committal... even though he has been even more under the radar and even more non-committal. Why go through all that trouble to call her out and ends it with "I don't want to lynch the new kid" and places no vote.

Nipplemelter said:
  • Suspicious Pilgrim's post here and his recovery also makes me feel uneasy (though he has made me feel that way all game). His reluctance to vote for Tuckles could be that of an innocent who honestly doesn't feel like Tuckles was a wolf, but he did make an analysis of Tuckles earlier on that would suggest otherwise. Unwilling to put the nail in the coffin during crunch time and nearly causing a no-lynch (which Soot would have prevented, but that doesn't really matter) under those circumstances makes me think Pilgrim is a wolf who didn't want to have any blood on his hands knowing Tuckles would come out innocent.

Nipplemelter said:
Pilgrim: Every time he posts he says he is going to post more, but never does. Wonderful. Ironically, he thinks Cado's vote on Sheep is rash and hurrying though the day. Didn't someone say on Day 1 that they wanted shorter days? Who could that have been? The only post he has today isn't the worst, but he doesn't take much of a position on anyone, much like what he did on Day 1. His vote at the end of the previous day is interesting because, combined with his unwillingness to take a stance on anything, it looks as if he is trying to play a wolf that is trying to blend in by not being overly controversial or polarizing to the village. Aside from all that, I've said other things about him, but these are the most recent developments.

Nipplemelter said:
Pilgrim/Vieira is also interesting, especially since Pilgrim was never fond of the idea of lynching Sheep. Yeah, Vieira went that way in the end, but there was too much pressure to go that way and, as I'm being accused of, it is better for "brownie points" since he is the new guy. He's been the most ambivalent of the group in his suspicions of people, which could point at wolf trying to float along, which would also explain why he was worried about switching to Tuckles: he knew an innocent was going to be lynched and didn't want to be blamed for it.

Okay, so you'd been making some noise in Pilgrim's direction.

When Xardob was pushing for a lynch of Pilgrim? Why didn't you join him?

What you actually did, when Xardob said "I'd like to lynch Pilgrim because I have a hunch which I'm not willing to explain unless people stop bleating 'Sheep Sheep'", is immediately voted to lynch Xardob.

If you thought Pilgrim was dodgy at that time, why didn't you agree to lynch him with Xardob when Xardob was making a personal appeal to pretty much everybody to follow his lead?
 
Nipplemelter said:
Oh, and here was the case I made against Sheep for Xardob:

Nipplemelter said:
Xardob said:
As opposed to us now being stuck between Sheep and Sheep?

Which would you rather have? And no, we aren't necessarily stuck with Sheep, but he has done nothing to make his case look any better (in my eyes).

I can see the reasoning against Sheep, but I'm not at all convinced he's a wolf. I'll ask again, if someone can sum the case against him, I'd appreciate.

A brief list of my thoughts of him:

  • He only has 8 posts, with only about 5 of them having any sort of content. Lurky.
  • After getting called out for the poor reasoning behind his vote on Soot and the misquote of Cado, he claims that the post was to "distance Cado from Soot," sidestepping questions brought about it.
  • He hasn't made an LoS or ever talked much about very many people - only really been involved with situations surrounding himself.
  • Mentions twice that Soot wouldn't be a good Day 1 lynch... when nobody was ever considering it in the first place. Strange and sounds like a preemptive cover-up.
  • Claims his post against Cado and Soot brought up fresh perspectives from other players, which makes no sense because all it brought was people pointing out his flawed logic.
  • Is ignoring people's questions against him and writing it off as a bandwagon.
  • Says lynching Tuckles would be no loss... and is now saying Cado is wolfy because of wanting to lynch Tuckles rather than having a no-lynch. And if Cado is so clearly wolfy, then why is he voting for CW instead?

You can also look back through his posts, since there are few enough.

If possible, can you also expand on your thoughts with more specifics? It isn't helping any of us that you are just saying "yeah, I think these guys are okay and those guys aren't."

Similar question to my post above. When you were making your case to Xardob for lynching Sheep, why didn't you actually follow this through with a vote on Sheep?

Why did you vote for Xardob himself? And try really hard for whole pages to get Ativan lynched? And then vote for Calodine? If you actually believed what you were saying, why didn't you just go ahead and put a vote on Sheep to actually demonstrate your resolve? If Sheep was so damn dodgy to you, why did you wait until one second before deadline before switching your vote?
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
Post #1: I'm not saying anything about you or your vote being Wolfe; I'm asking Mag if he thinks your situation (i.e. saying he was suspicious but strongly going a different way and ultimately changing it) Is similar to mine according to his reasoning.

Post #2: "White noise?" I'm giving you additional reasons why I find him wolfy. Do you not think there is a thing in there that is useful? I voted for him on Day 1,  but nobody seemed to be into it. I didn't vote for him after Xardob was asking about him because I didn't think there was going to be enough people to go that way, because I was also suspicious of him and wanted him to actually post something substantial first instead of using the same "anyone who doesn't think X is a wolf is a wolf" logic that used with Tuckles, and because I thought there were better targets anyways because there was less information on him than there was with Sheep. TE vote on Xardob was to try to pressure him into actually doing something for once.

Post #3: For one, I don't like making early votes; it just isn't my thing. Secondly, there were already three votes on Sheep within the first five seconds of the day; adding a forth vote and leaving the potentilla 5th vote for a wolf to bomb on an end the day early with (in the case Sheep want a wolf) would have been a bad idea, especial with mr "I want shorter days" around. I ended up on Cado because I convinced myself that the other side was Wolfe and thought even if I was wrong, chances are Sheep would actually be a wolf along with Adajam and we could work from there. It was awful logic, but that is why. I switched my vite at the end for the reason I've been saying a million times: because I thought there might be a no-lunch since Vieia was being slow.
 

Adaham

Baron
  • Right, so I'll start my big post of the day. It's sort of a LoS, but I'll try to include a couple of general things in it as well. The interpretations I make of some things are obviously my own opinion, so I don't expect you guys to agree with all my viewpoints. But there's still two more innocents out there, and I hope that it gets them thinking.

    The nightly kills and their meaning

    I think this is an important issue and something far too less considered by some. Especially, because some people don't include this information in their suspicion, but rather base their suspicions on personal likes/dislikes or obsolete feelings from the earlier days.

    Three guys were munched so far: SootShade, Xardob and Ativan. All three good players and neither of them a lurker. Two of them, Soot and Ativan, were among the most trusted members of the group. Only Xardob was a in a rough spot after being one of the main guys advocating for Tuckles and against Sheep. Therefore I'm pretty sure that Xardob was killed because the wolves thought he might be the seer. I also think the wolves might have believed there was an outright chance that Ativan was the seer, but I don't think it was the main reason he got munched. The emerging pattern is to get rid of good players that are rather trusted in the group. Which leaves the question why Calodine is still alive. If Xardob hadn't flirted with being a seer, probably Cal would have been dead already - at least if he's innocent. So we're left with the fact, that the guy who was the main guy to advocate a lynch on a proven wolf is still around. Personal revenge is probably not high on the list of the wolves, always based on the assumption that Cal is innocent.

    With regards to my own person, the night kills are as deep into WIFOM territory as I've ever seen. While Soot's death could be constructed in a way that has me benefitting from it, the deaths of Xardob and Ativan have left me in a worse situation than ever. If I was a wolf, why would I have killed Xardob, who was about the only guy who trusted me a bit and the only guy I could have easily blamed for the failure of day 2? And why would I kill Ativan after his remarkable turnaround yesterday? Without Ativan, I would have been dead already. If I wanted to get rid of an unlynchable guy, Calodine would have been a much better choice, as it was clear he wanted me dead more so than Ativan. And to assume I've been only doing this so I can come up with this glorious defense is also quite far-fetched.

    Another thing that struck me as odd was Llandy's entrance today. Her whole "I'm suprised I'm still alive, I was expecting to be eaten tonight"-act rubs me wrong on many many levels. Not only have wolves pulled this act in the past, but there's no logical explanation for why she should have been eaten last night. Nipple, Magorian and me were considered prime suspects and therefore good scapegoats if innocent, and Ativan and Calodine were considered almost cleared. Why would the wolves in the late game ever trade somebody who is almost cleared for a person that is at least medium to highly suspicious (like you are, Llandy)? By acting as if you might have been eaten tonight, you're granting yourself an air of trust that isn't really in place. Unless you think that our two "unlynchables" Cal and Ativan were actually the wolves, but the last time I checked yesterday, you didn't think so.

    The votes and especially the last vote

    It's quite interesting to see, that for some reason Nipple's quote war and his last minute vote change on day 2 are among the most scrutinized things today. Llandy seems to be slightly annoyed by having to answer the same old things all the time, but at the same time she's been beating the same old drum basically since early day 2. Don't expect others not to talk about old stuff, if you're basing everything on old stuff yourself (and no, saying that "x hasn't done anything since then to change my view" is not a really new thing). Llandy also seems to be remarkably passive towards Magorian, who has been inconsistent as hell since he came in. But that doesn't seem to bother her a lot...

    Regarding Magorian: The role of Pilgrim/Vieira/Magorian is hard to pin down because so far, there's been little consistency that we can judge. Pilgrim made a bad first impression, but improved - in my view - later with his cocky attitude. Still, it wasn't quite right. Suspicions of him were well deserved and it's a shame he had to drop out. Vieira gave us almost nothing, only his last-minute-plus-4-seconds decision to vote for Sheep. I explained yesterday why I thought that makes him no wolf, but maybe I was wrong after all (as I've been wrong a lot this game). Vieira didn't make the impression like there was a huge plan behind his play anyway, so he might have just followed suit with his packmate and voted off Sheep. After all, he seemed very stressed in general, and maybe he got stressed out because he was afraid he couldn't come up with a good lie to vote Calodine? I'm not sure about this one, but I don't think anymore this last minute vote makes him a necessary innocent.

    Then came Magorian and - oh boy - is he acting strange. The only thing of note he's delivered so far is a somewhat biased recap of day 1, in which he took the convenient position of joining the choir of "Sheep was as obvious as it gets"-people. The whole summary felt rather biased in a way, that he immediately put me on the first spot of suspects. While that might sound like music to some of you, I think it's not totally honest. Most of the criticism started off with my self-vote on day 2 and the so-called crazy act. Something Magorian didn't even read yet. BTW, the whole question about which parts Magorian has read and which he hasn't is also rather confusing and - imho - not entirely honest. While he might have not read everything in-depth as a spectator, I still think he followed the game reasonably and could have joined more recent discussions, rather than spending half of day 3 and all the time today re-reading old ****. The thing is, this puts him in a position in which we don't yet hold him fully responsible for his choices "because he hasn't fully read up yet". I think he's abusing this position consciously. One prime example was when he came in shortly before the deadline and wanted to answer the replies to his day 1 LoS. If he was a new guy, I'd understand, but he's been in enough games to know that other things were at hand. His whole act came across as rather dishonest. This is supported by the fact, that during twilight he was nowhere to be seen, not even for short postings. It really feels as if he has planned out his appearances rather carefully.

    Finally, today starts and not only has he changed the topic of conversation from me to Nipplemelter, he even voted him directly - because he's 100% sure. I am sorry, but this doesn't sound like innocent Magorian. He hasn't even read up fully, but he's as sure as it gets? The only way for him to be so sure, would be if he's the seer. But if he's the seer, he should claim and we could probably figure out everything at this stage. Instead he announces some big post that is supposed to explain why he's so sure.

    The whole problem with this vote is, that since this is a game of superlatives, this was the wolfiest move ever. Even far less experienced players know, that in a lynch-or-lose situation you don't just vote somebody before everything has been properly discussed. What if he's wrong? After he had voted, Cal and Llandy were online at the same time and I could have come online any moment. This doesn't take four wolves to bomb-vote (like in the famous woof-woof-etc. situation), but only two. A bomb-vote was a very real possibility. Magorian should know that, especially since he just said in the other thread that this bomb-vote back then was legendary. So he knows the danger and he's not Whoopin - who's always cocky and self-assured. Magorian prides himself in being logical and calm, and this vote on Nipple was neither. Regardless of the fact, that the bomb vote didn't happen, there's only a few scenarios:

    Nipple is a wolf, Magorian is innocent
    Magorian is a wolf, Nipple is innocent
    Both are wolves

    The last option might sound a bit far-fetched, but isn't really. It establishes some well-needed distance, while at the same time not posing any real danger for them. It will take some time until Llandy would consider not voting me today, while Cal seems to be hell bent on lynching me as well. And since they probably expected me to make a huge-ass-rant to defend myself, it was going to be wait and see. Anyway, the likeliest target for a lynch today is probably still me, and so Magorian has already a well established suspicion dating back to yesterday which he can use later on easily to vote me if somebody else makes the first step. His vote on Nipple also sends out a wrong signal to the other players, tempting them to also vote somebody, thus opening other options for bomb-votes. What if Llandy is worried she might not get her will today and votes me to counter the vote on Nipple. Next time Nipple and Mag are online at the same time, they switch and it's game over.

    This is just one scenario, and to be honest, it's maybe not the most likely of them. But if I look at the other two scenarios, it looks pretty bleak for Magorian. Once again, if Nipple is a wolf and Magorian is innocent, it's completely out of character for him to act like this and vote before he could convince anybody. The only way he could know this wouldn't lead to a bomb-vote end is, if he himself is a wolf.

    Other observations

    So when this day started, my initial suspicions were quickly shaped by the - in my opinion - dishonest attempts of Llandy and Magorian to corner Nipplemelter and make him either a viable option for lynching instead of me. While I know there's a chance I'm once again wrong about my suspicions and Nipple is actually a wolf, I must say that right now I feel he's the most honest in what he does. Maybe I'm sympathizing because we've both been off quite a lot in this game, and while it could be an act for any of us, I still feel I trust him more than the others. If he actually is a wolf, then he's played it damn smart and I congratulate him on that.

    So I thought I'm seeing two wolves cornering an innocent and so I was curious about Cal's take on all of that. Alas, that was very disappointing. If it wasn't for the whole "he suspected Sheep first" thing, everything he did would have been considered extremely wolfish...which is why I still can't get myself to fully trust him. It's fine if he still suspects me, but his rambling - sorry, don't mean to insult you - makes very little sense. Even though he was only bandwagoning for the second day in a row (remember when he blamed me on day 2 for leaving him no choice than to vote Sheep?), he claims the success for himself and leaves the blame for Ativan. Ativan had a hunch to trust me and if you lynch me, you'll find out he was right. Why can't you take your own responsibility for your actions? Yes, you trusted his gut and it turned out wrong. It was your vote, don't blame it on Ativan. By now we know he was innocent, but we don't know that about you for sure yet. And I am very allergic to people that talk about themselves as if they are more or less cleared. Why? You're not, you're shifty as hell, we have no proof of your innocence. And you're whole "hello, have you forgotten we agreed to lynch Adaham today?" thing doesn't make you look like somebody who is careful about the lynch-or-lose. It's bad enough if Llandy thinks you're innocent, but coming in from time to time and proclaiming yourself how you're more or less cleared is not what I think an innocent would do in a lynch-or-lose.

    So that left me in a situation, in which I see a separation between Nipple-Adaham and Magorian-Calodine-Llandy. As I said, it's still possible Nipple is a wolf, but right now I see it as far more likely that the wolves are among Magorian-Calodine-Llandy. That means one of them is a villager that is either stubborn or mislead. Without any disregard to either Calodine or Llandy, my highest expectations for villagerial play lie with Magorian, and as such my disappointment with his performance is the biggest. I cannot imagine him being innocent and being mislead by others so easily. When it comes to stubbornness, Cal and Llandy both have quite a track record, but Llandy takes the crown with her everlasting crusade. While her mode of basically hunting only one guy for the whole game is a very attractive modus operandi for wolves, it also gives her a slight edge in the "stubborn & misguided villager" category. Cal's behavior, on the other hand, is lurky, bandwagony, non-commitive and many other things. In fact, his only saving grace is that he was the first to suspect Sheep and (reluctantly?) voted for him on day 2.

    Conclusion

    Nipplemelter

    +
    • He's been sticking his neck out more than once and took some risks. His cases are not necessarily air tight, but that's part of being an innocent and not knowing things for sure.
    • He doesn't act as if he knows more than he really can know.
    • He changed his vote to Sheep at a time when it would have been a rather surprising "sacrifice" if he was his packmate. Sticking to his vote on Calodine would have still left him with two scapegoats to blame.
    -
    • He might be playing the confused villager, even though that gets him a bit too much attention to be really effective.
    • His last-second vote on Sheep might have been an attempt at scoring brownie points, but that too failed miserably. Also, he didn't really try to paint himself as more trustworthy because of that (as compared to Calodine).
    • His quote-war with Calodine was a possible attempt to distract from Sheep's stupidity. To be honest, I don't believe this to be the case and I think Nipple has debunked this himself pretty well. I'm just putting this out there for sake of completion, because I don't see many other things people accuse him of that I could consider being wolfish.

    Llandy

    +
    • She's stubborn and new to this game. This is not meant as an insult, but in her way of fixating herself on me, she's maybe trying to avoid the devil's circle of doubt that is part of this game. It's easier for her to stick her vote on me and hope she gets to find out whether this is right or not, then to doubt her suspicion and maybe realize that she has been used by the wolves. While she's getting the hang of the game pretty quickly, she's still rather new and we won't know how good she played until the game is over.
    • She voted for Sheep.

    -
    • She's incredibly stubborn. Her constant vote on me seems like a good way of keeping a straight story, while at the same time feeling around for other options she could go for. It would have been really interesting what she would have done if I was lynched for instance on day 2. My guess is, she would have found another scratching pole and fixated on him. This is a rather common tactic, especially for newbie wolves.
    • Her track record isn't as good as she acts. Her role in the bandwagon on Sheep isn't as well-explained as she claims, her switch to Sheep was one of the shadier ones.
    • She says things that don't make sense, but are intended to make her look better than she is. A good example is her entrance today in which she's surprised not to have been eaten.

    Calodine

    +
    • Was the first one to suspect Sheep and had his vote on him when Sheep was lynched.
    -
    • Playstyle resembles a lurking wolf. He admitted it himself
    • Bandwagoner and refuses to take responsibility for his votes. He even blamed me for leaving him no other choice than to vote Sheep (where's my credit for the Sheep-lynch then?)
    • Grants himself more or less clearance. If there's anybody out there claiming brownie points for the lynching of Sheep, then it's Cal.

    Magorian/Vieira/Pilgrim

    +
    • Voted for Sheep in a last-second decision.

    -
    • Pilgrim wanted shorter days, which was generally considered wolfish. His overall behavior was considered to be wolfish.
    • Xardob was killed after he mentioned having "a hunch" about Pilgrim/Vieira, something that was somewhat considered to be a hint at a seer role.
    • None of the replacements has contributed in a way that allows us to form an opinion of them. Basically we're in limbo with their role since day 2.
    • Magorian is acting very unusual for his own standards. Not as logical, more appeal to emotion. His arguments are oversimplifications of situations and his effort seems to be below par.
    • Magorian acted very careless, if not to say wolfish, by voting early today in a lynch-or-lose situation, where his vote could have ended the day and the game easily

    Thinking back about all of it, I see two options. Either Magorian is a wolf, or he's the seer. If the latter is true, he needs to claim now, because it means there's also a GA around that can protect him tonight and which should be enough to drive this home safely.

    Other than that, I say Magorian is our best bet for a wolf right now.

    I would like you guys to think about all that I've said and please don't dismiss the whole thing if you're innocent and you don't agree with what I said about you. But think about what other options are out there. These are probably the last few days of this game and there's no need to drag this unnecessarily, but let's try to sort out what we can so our guess is as educated as possible.
 
@ Adaham's WoT

If it's okay with you, I'll address that after I've done my rather large Nipple vs Magorian breakdown. I'm already on 8 pages of googledocs stuff and I've still got lots to do. It's a work-in-progress and I can't concentrate on 2 arguments at the same time.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
If PilgriMagorian was the seer and scanned me last night and found I was a wolf (in the alternative universe where that game is happening), then he would have (or should have) claimed it by now to make things easier. But he didn't. For what it is worth (if you want to believe me), I am just a standard innocent, which means the remaining innocents would have to be the two specials for there to be any.
 
Hahaha, I was going to wait until weekend before responding to your post Adaham, but this bit in particular made me laugh.

Adaham said:
Then came Magorian and - oh boy - is he acting strange. The only thing of note he's delivered so far is a somewhat biased recap of day 1, in which he took the convenient position of joining the choir of "Sheep was as obvious as it gets"-people. The whole summary felt rather biased in a way, that he immediately put me on the first spot of suspects.

Were you basically lying your ass off when you said this?

Adaham said:
@ Magorian: Like Llandy, I do agree with everything you said, except for the things you said about me. But all the other stuff is really good  :wink:

Noteworthy at the time because you actually agreed with me on something. Noteworthy now because it's exactly the opposite of what you said.

I'll respond to the rest of your post at weekend.

The reason I haven't addressed much in the way of Magorian's posts yet is because I'm saving it for my impending Nipple/Magorian WoT.

To be continued...


 

Taimat396

Baron
asdgasdfghsd

So I start reading and it's just like, EVERY TIME I read it I start wavering and consider lynching someone other than Adaham. Then I get to Adaham's and what no **** you, seriously.

I spent like three hours umming and ahing over whether to trust Ativan or go with you. I went with him because I've spent basically this whole game second guessing myself. He was wrong. I was wrong for going along with it instead of going for you. Now we're in a ****ty position, because I couldn't just bite the bullet and lynch your ass.

And now you're just going right ahead and claiming I was just bandwagoning behind Ativan the whole time. Great. Wait, no, the other one. Screw you.

You want responsibility? I've buckled and gone along with other people twice now, and been wrong both times. You've been acting scummy all game and twisting it after the fact to make people look bad. And every time people call you out on it, you get all pissy about it as a defence. And it keeps working. Every single goddamn time.

So here, I'm actually gonna go with what my gut's been saying for the last three days. Maybe they bombvote and we lose. More likely I'm right and you finally ****ing die today. And now my vote's done and set, so I can just spend the rest of the day figuring out who the other one is. Although I have a pretty good idea on that front, too.

vote: Adaham
 
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