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[Werewolf] Crusade on Castle Mengelberg, (Werewolves Win!)

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Nipplemelter said:
The quote war had nothing to do with burying Sheep's quote mining.

And we have only your word on that. I hope you'll forgive me if I don't accept it. I'm fresh out of trust right now. Forgot to refill my canister after CW got lynched.

I'm sure to you, your quote war was completely unrelated to Sheep's quote mining. It just had the unfortunate effect of carrying on for like, three whole pages. And it made nobody want to even think of the subject out of concern of re-igniting it.

Why are you suddenly agreeing with Magorian now?

I'm not agreeing with Magorian; I'm disagreeing with you. Hell, if Adaham was the one who came out and said "Hey Nipple, you tried to bury Sheep's misquote" and you replied exactly the same to him as you did to Magorian, then I also wouldn't necessarily be agreeing with Adaham, but disagreeing with your response to the claim.

I just call the whiffy smells as I see them. And your response was pretty whiffy.

If you remember, I made a case against Sheep to try and convince Xardob to potentially vote for him on Day 2 before I went crazy with the Avian argument.

I don't remember, but I'll go back and look.

Sorry for trying to "stick to my guns" and going for someone else, miss "I'm only going to vote for Adaham every day and not change my mind."

Very well, mister "I'm sticking to my guns."

I recall you saying that either Adaham or Ativan was a wolf. And you were willing to lynch Ativan on Day 2 to either prove his wolfishness, or to prove Adaham's. Well, how's that working out for you? Ativan's obviously innocent.

I know how much you like sticking to your guns, so I assume you'll be lynching Adaham now?

...what's that? You won't? Oh gee, I wonder why  :???:

I'll happily admit that I've had my vote on Adaham since Day 1 and am being stubborn about it. And actually, I'm kinda happy with my stubbornness right now. As for not considering anybody else, that's not true. Xardob asked me on Day 2 what I thought about Sheep and whether I would be willing to lynch him. And I went to great length to tell him that although I thought Sheep was suspicious, there were people I thought more dangerous/wolfy at the time. Specifically, Adaham and Pilgrim.

Yes, I changed for my vote to Sheep. For the love of god, please don't make me repeat my reasoning for doing that. I'm thoroughly sick of quoting myself.

There was apparently going to be no convincing you to got for Sheep until you actually did.

Oh, seems I have to repeat myself after all.

I was more sure of Cal's innocence than Sheep's guilt. But Sheep was still joint #3 on my list at the time. There was no case of "convincing" me to go for Sheep. There was my own case of not wanting to see Cal lynched because, given everything Sheep had just put him through with the quote-mining, Cal appeared to be the victim. And then almost got lynched for his own misfortune.

 
Calodine said:
P.S. Since this is Ativan's castle and he's dead now, I call dibs.

...on what? His stereo system? Do we still say "stereo system?" Or is that totally 90s?

Or do you mean on lynching Adaham? I'd kinda like to vote Adaham first (it's become something of a custom throughout the Days for me...) but I'd really like more time to re-read Day 3 and figure things out re: Nipple/Magorian. Super keen as I am to lynch a wolf and get myself a new fur coat Little Red Riding Hood style, there's still some detectiving to do.

I'm going to need at least 24 hours to re-read Day 3 (and maybe a couple more to post some rambles) and would much rather hold off on voting until I have a strong indication about who to go for next.

Also unfortunately wolfdudes did the smart thing and my BRILLIANT MISDIRECTION failed

What brilliant misdirection was that?
 

Taimat396

Baron
I said 'hey maybe we get lucky and they eat me or ativan'. Because I did not want to pick between CW, Nipple and Maggie today. Then Ativan had his revelation (ALL LIES) and we lynched CW. If they'd eaten Nipple/Magorian, today would be easy :razz:
And I called dibs on the castle, obviously.

But yeah.

 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
Calodine said:
Psst, if you think Maggie is a wolf, it doesn't matter if he votes, they need an innocent for the WOOF WOOF train

What, you think he is innocent?


Pharaoh X Llandy said:
And we have only your word on that. I hope you'll forgive me if I don't accept it. I'm fresh out of trust right now. Forgot to refill my canister after CW got lynched.

And you only have anyone's word on anything, but you seriously going to trust some guy who has clearly not read the thread thoroughly and is pulling out bull**** to try and push for my lynch (since it seems easier than Adaham right now) so early in the day? Even for Mag that is odd. I'm excited to hear his LoS though.

I'm not agreeing with Magorian; I'm disagreeing with you. Hell, if Adaham was the one who came out and said "Hey Nipple, you tried to bury Sheep's misquote" and you replied exactly the same to him as you did to Magorian, then I also wouldn't necessarily be agreeing with Adaham, but disagreeing with your response to the claim.

So what exactly are you disagreeing with if you aren't agreeing with Mag that I intentionally tried to bury Sheep's quote-mining and what is whiffy about my response to it?

Yes, I realize I haven't exactly "stuck to my guns" perfectly, but the point was I was fighting for something that I thought at the time was correct. Whether it is correct or not is up for you to decide how genuine of wolfy it is, but it is why I wasn't going to easily switch back to Sheep.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
Oh, and here was the case I made against Sheep for Xardob:

Nipplemelter said:
Xardob said:
As opposed to us now being stuck between Sheep and Sheep?

Which would you rather have? And no, we aren't necessarily stuck with Sheep, but he has done nothing to make his case look any better (in my eyes).

I can see the reasoning against Sheep, but I'm not at all convinced he's a wolf. I'll ask again, if someone can sum the case against him, I'd appreciate.

A brief list of my thoughts of him:

  • He only has 8 posts, with only about 5 of them having any sort of content. Lurky.
  • After getting called out for the poor reasoning behind his vote on Soot and the misquote of Cado, he claims that the post was to "distance Cado from Soot," sidestepping questions brought about it.
  • He hasn't made an LoS or ever talked much about very many people - only really been involved with situations surrounding himself.
  • Mentions twice that Soot wouldn't be a good Day 1 lynch... when nobody was ever considering it in the first place. Strange and sounds like a preemptive cover-up.
  • Claims his post against Cado and Soot brought up fresh perspectives from other players, which makes no sense because all it brought was people pointing out his flawed logic.
  • Is ignoring people's questions against him and writing it off as a bandwagon.
  • Says lynching Tuckles would be no loss... and is now saying Cado is wolfy because of wanting to lynch Tuckles rather than having a no-lynch. And if Cado is so clearly wolfy, then why is he voting for CW instead?

You can also look back through his posts, since there are few enough.

If possible, can you also expand on your thoughts with more specifics? It isn't helping any of us that you are just saying "yeah, I think these guys are okay and those guys aren't."
 
Calodine said:
I said 'hey maybe we get lucky and they eat me or ativan'. Because I did not want to pick between CW, Nipple and Maggie today. Then Ativan had his revelation (ALL LIES) and we lynched CW. If they'd eaten Nipple/Magorian, today would be easy :razz:
And I called dibs on the castle, obviously.

But yeah.

Ah, okay.

But I get the stereo system :\

Nipplemelter said:
And you only have anyone's word on anything, but you seriously going to trust some guy who has clearly not read the thread thoroughly and is pulling out bull**** to try and push for my lynch (since it seems easier than Adaham right now) so early in the day?

Dude, if I SERIOUSLY was trusting Magorian I would not be spending tonight and tomorrow night trawling through the mess that was Day 3, trying to work out which of you is more suspicious and likely to be in a pack with Adaham.

So what exactly are you disagreeing with if you aren't agreeing with Mag that I intentionally tried to bury Sheep's quote-mining and what is whiffy about my response to it?

....I didn't think my first response was that hard to understand. I am disagreeing with YOUR claim that your actions didn't serve to try and bury Sheep's quote mining. I don't know your intentions. All I know is the effect of your actions. Regardless of whether the accusation against you came from Magorian, or Calodine, or Adaham, had your response been the same, then I still woulda called you out on it.

Now, it's half an hour to midnight here. I still have at least 10 pages of Day 3 posts to get through, and I'd like to get at least three of them done before I crash. Any further serious replies for me will have to wait until I get home from work tomorrow.
 

Taimat396

Baron
Nipplemelter said:
Calodine said:
Psst, if you think Maggie is a wolf, it doesn't matter if he votes, they need an innocent for the WOOF WOOF train

What, you think he is innocent?

Nope. I'm not decided. But if he's a wolf, your whole bit about him voting is irrelevant - That two wolves, three votes thing only comes into play if he's innocent.
 
Uh, just out of curiosity. When I do get around to posting my rambles (hopefully tomorrow night), what is it actually worth me doing?

I mean, I think I've made my case against Adaham well (or, at least well enough for me...) since late Day 1. I'd rather not waste my time adding to that case, however we do have 7 days in which to decide this thing, so if people want me to make a case again factoring Day 3 into things, I can. It will just take a bit longer.

I was planning on spending the next day or 2 trying to narrow things down between Nipple and Magorian. But if it will be more useful to see a full LoS from me, I can do that too. Again, it will take a bit longer, as I'll have to factor Adaham AND Cal into that.
 

Adaham

Baron
Just to let you guys know, I've been out all day and haven't fully read up yet (I've seen the first posts of the day on my phone, but not much since then). It's late now and I need sleep, I'll be at the computer working tomorrow, so I'll make sure to read up and post.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
Pharaoh X Llandy said:
....I didn't think my first response was that hard to understand. I am disagreeing with YOUR claim that your actions didn't serve to try and bury Sheep's quote mining. I don't know your intentions. All I know is the effect of your actions.

Gotcha. Though it isn't like people forgot what Sheep did, so I don't think the argument great either way.

Calodine said:
Nope. I'm not decided. But if he's a wolf, your whole bit about him voting is irrelevant - That two wolves, three votes thing only comes into play if he's innocent.

He could still be a wolf placing the first vote in hopes another will follow so his packie can jump on for the finishing blow. This is why I am wary of him making a move so quickly. He can be suspicious of me all he wants, but if he is in fact innocent, I would think that he would have enough sense to wait to vote in order to not give the wolves the opportunity to hop in and spike me out in case he was wrong.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
Pharaoh X Llandy said:
I was planning on spending the next day or 2 trying to narrow things down between Nipple and Magorian. But if it will be more useful to see a full LoS from me, I can do that too. Again, it will take a bit longer, as I'll have to factor Adaham AND Cal into that.

I think that it would be best to just do PilgriMagorian and myself, unless you have anything interesting to add to your previous thoughts on Cado and Adaham. As you said, it would take less time, especially since there is not a whole lot from the trio of replacemelters (which is rather unfortunate).
 
That's a simple failure to understand the probabilities involved. If it were nothing more than a blind guess, it would be a 50/50 chance of hitting on a wolf. But its not a blind guess. Door number one has been opened for me, so to speak. We can know, unless you're trying to keep your options open like a good wolf, that Calodine is innocent. If we were to misunderstand the statistics involved, a blind guess from the remaining three would already yield a 66% success rate. But for those who understand the Monty hall problem, we know that the real probability of guessing right is boosted to 75%.

Mix in the fact that I'm not voting blind, and it can't really be argued that I'm taking much of a risk here. There's a maximum (assuming my analysis of the game affects nothing) 25% chance I could guess wrong and give the wolves a bomb vote opportunity. Not really a tough call for a villager to make.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
True, but I'd still not want to give the wolves such an opportunity, even with the odds being low. Being so confident as to actually make a vote rather than just saying "this is the way I am going to go and here is why" in a lynch or lose scenario like that, to me, is either cocky or dumb. Which is why, in addition to everything else I thought about Pilgrim (Llandy), I believe you are a wolf who knows the bomb vote won't happen because one of the wolves is already voting for me.
 

Taimat396

Baron
Pharaoh X Llandy said:
Uh, just out of curiosity. When I do get around to posting my rambles (hopefully tomorrow night), what is it actually worth me doing?

I mean, I think I've made my case against Adaham well (or, at least well enough for me...) since late Day 1. I'd rather not waste my time adding to that case, however we do have 7 days in which to decide this thing, so if people want me to make a case again factoring Day 3 into things, I can. It will just take a bit longer.

I was planning on spending the next day or 2 trying to narrow things down between Nipple and Magorian. But if it will be more useful to see a full LoS from me, I can do that too. Again, it will take a bit longer, as I'll have to factor Adaham AND Cal into that.

Oh, right. You haven't done this before. Fun times! 'kay I'll explain. Obviously these ain't 100% facts everyone agreed on already, but this is how I'm seeing it. Right now we got 3 villagers and 2 wolves. Of those Adaham is almost certainly wolfman, and I'm mostly cleared by now I think. If we lynch an innocent we lose. If we lynch a wolf, I die tonight because having a clear on the last day is REALLY BAD for wolfbros. So tomorrow is very very likely to be you, Maggie and Nipple. Given how today is going, you probably get stuck making the actual choice that wins/loses the game. Unless I'm really really dumb and Adaham is somehow not a wolf.

This basically puts my job for today as 'sit back and try to figure out which of you three is the second wolf'. I'm pretty damn positive it's one of Nipple and Magorian, but maybe you're just really good at this. It could happen!

My job, incidentally, is still a step up from where Adaham landed himself. That being 'try desperately to convince people he isn't a wolf'.
 
Calodine said:
Oh, right. You haven't done this before. Fun times! 'kay I'll explain. Obviously these ain't 100% facts everyone agreed on already, but this is how I'm seeing it. Right now we got 3 villagers and 2 wolves. Of those Adaham is almost certainly wolfman, and I'm mostly cleared by now I think. If we lynch an innocent we lose. If we lynch a wolf, I die tonight because having a clear on the last day is REALLY BAD for wolfbros. So tomorrow is very very likely to be you, Maggie and Nipple. Given how today is going, you probably get stuck making the actual choice that wins/loses the game. Unless I'm really really dumb and Adaham is somehow not a wolf.

Well, that does help. Though it's sorta pants. I suck at important choices... it's how I ended up being a mod :razz:

This basically puts my job for today as 'sit back and try to figure out which of you three is the second wolf'. I'm pretty damn positive it's one of Nipple and Magorian, but maybe you're just really good at this. It could happen!

Hmm. I was going to have a look at Day 3 and just do a basic summary. Now I know what the stakes are, I feel like I should do a complete review of both Nipple and Pilgrim/Vieira/Magorian from the beginning, to give myself as much solid info as possible to go on. The disadvantage of that is that Pilgrim was almost entirely absent for Day 2, and Vieira had very little to say; the most important thing he did was lynch Sheep on Day 2, mere seconds too late for his vote to count for anything.

Bah. I'll see how I get on tonight. If nothing's conclusive from Day 3 posts, I'll go back further.

My job, incidentally, is still a step up from where Adaham landed himself. That being 'try desperately to convince people he isn't a wolf'.

I'm not ruling that out. He managed it pretty well Yesterday. But right now, I do feel that trying to figure out Nipple/Magorian is more important.

I shall get on it tonight!

(On a side note, I see Aust is looking at possibly starting his Werewolf game on Friday. Doesn't affect me, but if anybody's signed up and they're worried about time commitments to either game, they might wanna have a say in Aust's thread before the decision is made.)
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
Trying to figure out between Mag and I is indeed more important because the wolves would have to be absurdly potato-y to have not bomb voted by now, meaning there is almost a guaranteed 100% chance either PilgiMagorian or myself is a wolf.
 

Phonemelter

Marquis
WBM&B
I can, though I don't have much time for sifting through everything again since I should have no free-time until Monday, so I'm limited as to what I can add to previous thoughts.
 
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