Were Trek: Q-re - Game over, INNOCENTS WIN :iamamoron:

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Moose!

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Duke
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Jock

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Dago Wolfrider said:
This would of course mean swapping out you for either Dago or Brutus in my theory.

Brutus, my man. What is your take on all of this? I've left you out of pretty much all of my posts because I still have no clue about you, mate.

If it's not betraying people, how do you call it? Flip flopping.

Vote Jock
Seriously. Betraying? Do I owe something to either of you? I've barely interacted with Brutus, hence why I specifically asked him to explain his thoughts about me. Calling someone 'mate' is how I refer to people depending on the situation and mood. Seriously, Dago, if I had to lynch anyone based solely on the quality of achieving their goals it'd be you. Either a lazy wolf or a very misled innocent. Definitely questionable choice here, but would wolf Dago vote for me with such flimsy reasoning, considering, as Soot said, there isn't that much pressure on you (nor me before your vote) either?

Marowit said:
I think we have a case of Day 1 repeating itself all over again. Moose! puts down his vote on the most suspicious innocent, then the wolves jump on his wagon. I'm not convinced by the case on Jock.
Nor should you be, as I've repeatedly explained. I haven't, however, heard anything from you regarding what Curio has said. Who was your  flippity floppity post directed at, earlier also? What is the pack you're proposing? You earlier listed me as one of your most suspicious reads along with Curio, what changed?

Xardob said:
I feel like I'm missing something. This pattern indicates that neither Curio or Jock are wolves, unless there's some major bussing going on. But if neither are wolves, then the most likely pack is Dago, Soot and Eternal. Possible, and scary, but Soot reads innocent so far.

Would anyone be up for lynching Eternal today?
I'm up for Eternal, as my alignment chart already suggested. How does Soot read for you if you consider me innocent?

SootShade said:
Makes sense. I'm also struggling to come up with a full pack that fits together, though for slightly different reasons. The entire current situation feel very fractured, it's hard to pick up any particular trends from day 2.

I still agree that Rocco or Moose should not be in consideration for a lynch today, even if I'm struggling to come up with a pack without including them.
I can agree with the last part. That still leaves either you or Eternal as my preferred lynches for today. I'm waiting to hear more from him before changing my vote however as he did step out in my defence. This doesn't mean I can't see him as a possible wolf trying to turn the tables here though.

Xardob said:
SootShade said:
Xardob said:
I feel like I'm missing something. This pattern indicates that neither Curio or Jock are wolves, unless there's some major bussing going on. But if neither are wolves, then the most likely pack is Dago, Soot and Eternal. Possible, and scary, but Soot reads innocent so far.

Would anyone be up for lynching Eternal today?
Can you explain the logic there a bit more?
With the votes as spread out as they are, the wolves have a lot of room to influence the lynch. One support at the right time could basically determine who gets lynched. This would make selling a packmate out unnecessary right now. I'm not saying there's no wolf voting a packmate, but it's not the optimum play today.

So in that light, both you and Dago voting Jock don't make much sense. The only pack I can place Jock without you two is Eternal and Curio. But that pack doesn't really work, because:
Adaham said:
Biggus Dickus (3): Marowit, SootShade, Jock
There's no way this happens. With this, Curio doesn't fit in any pack I can think of unless at least one packmate is voting for him.

Of course this changes if I start considering either Brutus or Rocco in the mix, but let's not go down this particular rabbit hole today.
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Troll

Duke
M&BWB
Eternal:

The starting point of my re-examination is this: Eternal was practically nonexistent for day 1, though one of his two posts did give me a major gut reaction. I've still not been able to substantiate the logic that I came up with to explain that feeling, but I've never been one to dismiss my gut. He showed up a lot more on day 2 however. My initial view of that big post was very positive, because a lot of it lined up quite exactly with my own reads.

There's a bunch of qualifications when it comes to that though: 1) It's not uncommon for a wolf to upgrade their play from one day to another. 2) It's especially easy to make a great post when you are basically arriving into the game late, and just observing what happened previously from the point of view of an outsider. 3) Him marking me as a strong innocent read makes me really paranoid he's trying to buddy up with me. 4) I did not actually examine most of his points in detail at the time. 5) My reads have adjusted somewhat since he made that post,

His next big post also looked pretty fine to me, though by that time I'd somewhat cooled from the excitement of Eternal making sense for once.



So yeah, I'll start with Eternal's first big post (page 37):

To be honest, I don't particularly get his read on Moose. I was suspicious of Moose early on, but the particular posts Eternal's picking out don't really strike me as egregious - though I might think otherwise if I wasn't playing last game. Particularly, I'm not sure why he's declaring with certainty here:
Marowit said:
Moose! said:
Soot why don’t we compromise and lynch Brutus?
Moose! wolf confirmed. Thanks for sticking up for me on my birthday, but it makes you no less hairy.

Rocco's 'trademark wolf post' giving him 'serious innocent vibes' is a bit funny, but I'll assume he's talking about a gut feeling for the latter part. That said, it's not that much later (at least in terms of Eternal's post) that Rocco is already giving him scum vibes instead.

I still agree with Eternal that the amount of attention Xardob was getting was weird, and the reasons given for it.

I think Eternal's maybe buying too much into Dago's being heroic and the only one try. Maybe my increased suspicion towards Dago changed my view here, but in the first place my innocent read on Dago wasn't so much because I was convinced by his posts; I wasn't, he just seemed too give too few ****s to be scum.

I still very much like Eternal's observations of the Arch3r wagon as well.

I don't know why I'm the only one not getting marked suspicious at all for jumping on the Arch3r wagon though - it doesn't come up in his LoS either, where he gives me a strong innocent read.  He's right about me being reluctant to jump on it, but if I try to remove my own bias and forget about the Xardob/Arch3r wagon overlap - since that doesn't seem to be what Eternal's working with - I would not think that alone makes me less suspect. It's weird to try to explain why others should suspect me, but this gives the idea of him trying to buddy up with me more weight in my mind.

Especially when you add the fact that he's dismissing my vote on him - following a good post as he admitted - as bizarre, and still not really reacting with any suspicion towards me.

I note that Crassius did not feature particularly prominently in Eternal's big post. Eternal marked him suspicious for having Xardob as his first suspect early on. The key thing seems to be how he jumped on the Arch3r wagon - I still agree that's by far the scummiest part of Crassius's play, so that's fair. Then this:
Crassius's "I told you so" after jumping on the wagon... ooooof. So scummy.
Which I recall has been discussed by Eternal and Crassius as some sort of a misunderstanding on the former's part? I guess I'll get to that as I keep going.

Anyway, that's all the mention that Crassius got before being marked as 'BLATANT WOLF' in Eternal's LoS, and got a vote as well.

Eternal's LoS conclusions I was totally on board with - still am largely - but the fact that Brutus didn't seem to get viewed any more favorably in light of his incident with Xardob is still quite weird. I don't actually recall if Eternal ever answered my question about this, but we'll see as we go forward. The other problem is that, with a more in-depth reading of his previous post, he marked me with such a strong innocent read, is now even more unnerving to me.



His next notable post is the big one on page 43:

Calling out Crassius for joining the Arch3r wagon, started by Moose who was his primary suspect, is still very astute by Eternal.

Again Eternal's really praising Dago overmuch. Yeah, could easily be trying to buddy up again, with another innocent.

Marowit said:
Dago Wolfrider said:
Both SootShade and Marowit being traitors would be rather strange. I mean Arch3r was lynched mostly because of his flip flopping. At least that's what mostly made him suspicious to me. And then what do you do? You try to start a bandwagon on your teammate to then change your vote midair once he show up with a LoS? Moreover you forgot that Marowit parked a vote on me last day. You do not vote one of your teammates if you know that you may be unable to change it and while he is under pressure. All in all I am not denying the possibility that SootShade or Marowit or both may be wolves, yet that's quite unlikely to me. I do not trust them, but their posts are reasonable and well thought, unlike many others.
Okay guys, I realize it's funny for me to say this, but there's been a lot of "oh if it's X then it can't be Y" arguments this game. Almost all of those arguments are worthless. Wolves go after each other all the time. Wolves frequently vote together, especially if they can get on a bandwagon lead by an innocent (Arch3r, anyone?). Wolves are also cautious of being caught on the same wagon, because it makes them look suspicious and associated. My past experience with analyzing packs is that it's usually not very successful and in my last few games where I used it as my primary criterion I ended up being dead wrong on a lot of people. I don't think it's a scummy argument, I just think it's a bad one. I'm much more confident in lynching Curio and/or Rocco because of their incredibly scummy behavior than I am about lynching Curio because of his associations to any other scummy people.
This part is also quite solid. But it's also not difficult for a wolf to explain this reasoning either. You can be very helpful about discussing general game theory without it saying anything about your role. This would also apply to a notable part of Eternal's other good contributions.

Marowit said:
Crassius "Biggus Dickus" Curio said:
@Eternal my previous comment on the "told you so" accusation in case you missed it. I really want to see where you got that from, because if you really just pulled those accusations out of your arse, I know who I'm gonna change my vote to.
I read thirty pages at 2am. Forgive my misinterpretation. You're still scummy.
Ehh... Dunno, seems like a bit overreaching to show this much bravado, when taking into consideration the rather minimal volume of his case on Crassius, even if the point regarding Crassius's part on the Arch3r wagon still stands.
Marowit said:
Lord Brutus said:
Of course with Marowit's misinterpretation of my assessment of Xardob, possibly deliberate, he may be wolf no. 3.
I pretty much skimmed through the first Day 2 pages because role analysis makes a boring game. Not much sense in me doing it deliberately since I really don't care for lynching you.
I guess that explains why I don't recall an answer regarding my earlier inquiry on related to this. Not this answer really reassures me either.

After that post, it's pretty much silence until this:
Marowit said:
I think we have a case of Day 1 repeating itself all over again. Moose! puts down his vote on the most suspicious innocent, then the wolves jump on his wagon. I'm not convinced by the case on Jock.
Well, I guess he wouldn't be so blatant about defending a packie? But as I've noted, it feels like he might be trying to pocket innocents left and right. And yeah, I guess at this point I'm starting to read him as scum.



So, in conclusion, he's showing too much certainty with both his scum and, especially, his innocent reads. Kinda like my day 1 argument regarding Moose, I feel like he's trying to act out the usual stubborn confidence that he shows as an innocent. And even if I'm particular paranoid about being pocketed, this really feels like I'm getting too much trust from his direction. Whilst he's said a lot of the right things, there's really nothing there that indicates innocence strongly, especially considering how easy it is to come across as reasonable when you've not really been involved in the game.

So yeah, I'm good to lynch him. Not that I'm needed for that, looks like.
 

Dago Wolfrider

Sergeant Knight
Again Eternal's really praising Dago overmuch. Yeah, could easily be trying to buddy up again, with another innocent.

So, are you stating Marowit is innocent or are you talking about yourself? Just to be sure.

So yeah, I'm good to lynch him. Not that I'm needed for that, looks like.

? Why shouldn't you be needed? ?
 

Troll

Duke
M&BWB
The latter.

Because Jock's on board as well. What do you think about it, btw?

I will say, such an quick wagon does make me uneasy, compared to how the one on Jock progressed. That said, with Moose, Rocco and Xardob doing it, not like I can see a particular scum influence here.
 

Jock

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There's a bunch of time till the deadline. Is anyone against giving Eternal a chance to defend himself?
 

Troll

Duke
M&BWB
Certainly not. I've come to really appreciate the wisdom of taking the time we are given, after the last game. :lol:
 

Dago Wolfrider

Sergeant Knight
SootShade said:
The latter.

Because Jock's on board as well. What do you think about it, btw?

I will say, such a quick wagon does make me uneasy, compared to how the one on Jock progressed. That said, with Moose, Rocco and Xardob doing it, not like I can see a particular scum influence here.

My bet: you know that Marowit is innocent. Jock is voting him to save his life and disappear in the bandwagon. Still think that Rocco is just an idiot Romeo or Juliet, Xardob don't know, Moose! maybe the evil Romeo or Juliet, yet unlikely.

Jock said:
There's a bunch of time till the deadline. Is anyone against giving Eternal a chance to defend himself?

Not me. Are there already four votes on him?
 

Adaham

Baron
Busy work days...kinda outta the loop, especially since I'm missing like tens of pages at a time. But from what I gathered, you guys are close to coming to a decision, so here's my terribly simplified votecount update:

Votecount:

Eternal (4)

Something else (5): everybody else

---

Sorry, time's really short. I probably shouldn't be hosting right now, but it is what it is...
 

Adaham

Baron
BTW, if I've missed the 5th vote already, then please somebody prod me. I will provide a short narration et al, but other than that, I really can't dig through this here. Sorry.
 

Jock

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Dago Wolfrider said:
My bet: you know that Marowit is innocent. Jock is voting him to save his life and disappear in the bandwagon. Still think that Rocco is just an idiot Romeo or Juliet, Xardob don't know, Moose! maybe the evil Romeo or Juliet, yet unlikely.
Do you have any actual reasons to suspect me besides these nonsensical points you've been making about me not hunting? You seem very unsure about almost everyone so far, could you maybe elaborate a bit on your suspicions?
Marowit said:
Lmao good luck
Is that it?
 
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