Ukraine Today

[Weaver]

I don't exactly understand what is happening.
Russians appeared to have no reserves to prop up a proper defense in Belgorod. It seems they were 100% sure that the war will be confined to our territory only. They were preparing for a counter-offensive in the south and maybe in the east. But not along northern Ukraine's border.
They still treat this offensive as a bluff because they do not move troops from other existing fronts. Belgorod is being constantly harassed.
What if the rebels actually start building their own defenses in Belgorod? What if it's not a bluff and the Ukrainian counter-offensive actually happens on Russian territory? It is completely unprepared and unprotected.

 

[NPC99]

Any Ukrainian counter offensive into Russia would lose Western support. The current proxy strikes by Russians under Ukrainian command and control are little more than raids. They don’t represent a military threat but they are a huge political embarrassment to the Kremlin, and the FSB border service. Similar to drone attacks on Moscow they seem designed to distract and destabilise by puncturing myths about homeland security.
ATM the only offensive appears to be cautious flanking advances by the 3rd Assault Brigade near Bakhmut. None of the new brigades created for the counter offensive appear to have been committed as yet. Russia has been given lots of time to construct deep defences, I’d hate to assault them. However, the Russians appear to have surrendered the initiative. Let’s hope Ukraine strikes wisely.

Finland Built Special Vehicles For Breaching Enemy Defenses—And Gave Them To Ukraine’s Weirdest Brigade

The Leopard 2R is a Leopard 2A4 tank that Finnish firm Patria transformed into a specialized engineering vehicle whose main role is to punch a hole in fortifications.

www.forbes.com

Spoke too soon. Seems it may have begun:

Ukraine: significant escalation in fighting reported in Donetsk region

Russia claims to have fought off ‘major offensive’ and killed hundreds of Ukrainian troops in attack

www.theguardian.com

 

[Weaver]

Any Ukrainian counter offensive into Russia would lose Western support. The current proxy strikes by Russians under Ukrainian command and control are little more than raids. They don’t represent a military threat but they are a huge political embarrassment to the Kremlin, and the FSB border service. Similar to drone attacks on Moscow they seem designed to distract and destabilise by puncturing myths about homeland security.

Well, I don't think you can blame Ukraine for this. Russian rebels are trying to start a secession in Belgorod. Maybe we allow them to use our territory for downtime, but we're at war so why shouldn't we?
You're most likely right, but what if there are people with more balls involved? Snowball effect?
I'm rooting for both teams in this conflict, just as in Wagner vs. Kadyrov one.

ATM the only offensive appears to be cautious flanking advances by the 3rd Assault Brigade near Bakhmut.

There is also movement on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzha, around Velika Novosilka. Nothing big though.

Spoke too soon. Seems it may have begun:

Ukraine: significant escalation in fighting reported in Donetsk region

Russia claims to have fought off ‘major offensive’ and killed hundreds of Ukrainian troops in attack

www.theguardian.com

No, I don't think so.
Until you see videos of burning Leopards it will be not a counteroffensive yet.

And just in. ZSU chief spokeswoman answering "Why are muscovites posting so much alarming messages about southern Zaporizhzha this morning?"
She thinks she's funny when she does that or what. Jesus Christ, woman.

 

[NPC99]

Until you see videos of burning Leopards it will be not a counteroffensive yet.

Possibly.

Seeing is believing A close reading of combat videos from Velyka Novosilka suggests a possible course for the impending Ukrainian counteroffensive. But it can all change, and quickly. — Meduza

Russia’s Defense Ministry and the pro-war Telegram channels are circulating combat footage from Velyka Novosilka, claiming that it heralds nothing less than the start of a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive. But is this really true? Meduza’s military analysts take a close look at the...

meduza.io

 

[Weaver]

Apparently, Russians blew up the Kahovka dam.
It does prevent or at least makes extremely difficult for us to cross the river at most places. But it also means an ecological catastrophe of a magnitude we don’t yet understand.

 

[NPC99]

Apparently, Russians blew up the Kahovka dam.
It does prevent or at least makes extremely difficult for us to cross the river at most places. But it also means an ecological catastrophe of a magnitude we don’t yet understand.

Kakhovka hydropower plant fully destroyed, not restorable – power company

Ukraine's hydropower company Ukrhydroenerho has stated that the Kakhovka Hydropower Plant, blown up by Russian forces in the morning of 6 June, is totally destroyed and cannot be restored, as the explosion happened within the machine room of the station...

euromaidanpress.com

While the dam had existing damage and a high water level exerting increased pressure, the destruction of the turbine hall matches the claims of an explosion in the hydroelectric plant’s machine room.

Sanctions or SNAFU? (Telegram google translate):

Either way, the fewer operational Russian mines the better.

 

[Arvenski]

How well-equipped and prepared were the local authorities to rescue people trapped by the flooding? I feel like the awful thing in this situation is, no one living in the flooded areas could have had any warning: It's not like a hurricane where people usually have days to prepare before it hits.

 

[Weaver]

This is a frontline. You can not expect municipal services to operate efficiently, especially on the occupied territory. There was no way this wouldn’t become a humanitarian disaster.

 

[Adorno]

Denmark just sent 2 water pumps (15,000 litres/min) along with rubber dinghies, large tents and a 100kW generator.
I assume they've talked to/coordinated it, with local authorities. But I wonder how much use it is now.

 

[NPC99]

Intense fighting reported as Ukrainian forces go on attack south of Zaporizhzhia

Counteroffensive reported to have begun, with large force pushing assault against Russian positions

www.theguardian.com

The Russians Just Destroyed Their First Ukrainian Leopard 2 Tank

The Leopard 2 and other vehicles were traveling in an tight column along a road outside Novopokrovka or nearby Mala Tokmachka when artillery struck.

www.forbes.com

 

[Weaver]

Intense fighting reported as Ukrainian forces go on attack south of Zaporizhzhia

Counteroffensive reported to have begun, with large force pushing assault against Russian positions

www.theguardian.com

The Russians Just Destroyed Their First Ukrainian Leopard 2 Tank

The Leopard 2 and other vehicles were traveling in an tight column along a road outside Novopokrovka or nearby Mala Tokmachka when artillery struck.

www.forbes.com

Called it.

Denmark just sent 2 water pumps (15,000 litres/min) along with rubber dinghies, large tents and a 100kW generator.
I assume they've talked to/coordinated it, with local authorities. But I wonder how much use it is now.

It will absolutely be useful when the water starts subsiding. We're grateful for all the help we can get.
We'll probably need to drain what remains in the settlements that were affected the least. But I don't know the magnitude of destruction yet, given there are no official reports from the occupied territory and the unofficial ones are horrifying.

We, in my own city, are now experiencing the aftermath of the catastrophe. Beaches are filled with debris from villages and towns washed away by the river. Fridges, sofas, chunks of buildings, and furniture.
And of course another wave of absolutely broken, shocked people just standing there in the refugee centers. Another batch of thousands of my countrymen who've lost absolutely everything. Except for phones and bank accounts.

 

[Adorno]

Good to hear. There are reports of Russian shelling in the flooded areas where people are scrambling to salvage their belongings.
So it sounds like a difficult task to offer even the most basic help. (I don't suppose international organisations, who would typically offer help in such catastrophes, would jeopardize their workers' lives).

 

[NPC99]

Seismic data adds to evidence Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam was blown up

Signals point to explosion early on Tuesday, as Ukraine says intercepted call proves Russia was responsible

www.theguardian.com

The Ukrainian Army Lost Bradley Fighting Vehicles And A Leopard 2 Tank Trying And Failing To Breach Russian Defenses In Southern Ukraine

The 33rd and 47th Brigades' debacle near Mala Tokmachka might be Kyiv’s first big defeat of the counteroffensive. But losses don’t necessarily mean strategic defeat.

www.forbes.com

 

[NPC99]

Borrowing Tactics From The U.S. Army, The Ukrainian Marine Corps Is Thundering Through Russian Lines In Fast-Moving Columns

The Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade is more than a week into its own prolonged thunder run along the Mokri Yaly River.

www.forbes.com

Ukrainian Paratroopers Join The Marines Thundering South Along The Mokri Yaly River

One of the Ukrainian air-assault forces’ brigades unexpectedly appeared in the town of Neskuchne on Tuesday, joining a growing Ukrainian corps rolling south.

www.forbes.com

Russian forces accused of destroying another dam in Ukraine

Russia has again been accused of blowing up another dam in the western Donetsk region of Ukraine.

www.ibtimes.co.uk

 

[Weaver]

Tonight a rocket strike hit very close to my apartment. Not as close so that my windows shattered, but the sound and the ground's trembling were terrifying. Another supermarket was destroyed along with my favourite McDonalds. At least 3 people dead.
Yesterday I walked by the sea again. It is absolutely heartbreaking. Firstly, because our beautiful beaches now look like garbage dumps. Secondly, because every piece of a fence, every fragment of a roof, every floating door or sofa is a testament of a life destroyed a hundred kilometers across the bay.
I'm in a very bad mood today.

 

[NPC99]

Tonight a rocket strike hit very close to my apartment. Not as close so that my windows shattered, but the sound and the ground's trembling were terrifying. Another supermarket was destroyed along with my favourite McDonalds. At least 3 people dead.
Yesterday I walked by the sea again. It is absolutely heartbreaking. Firstly, because our beautiful beaches now look like garbage dumps. Secondly, because every piece of a fence, every fragment of a roof, every floating door or sofa is a testament of a life destroyed a hundred kilometers across the bay.
I'm in a very bad mood today.

War destroys lives, property, wealth and resources. Unfortunately, humanity seems too immature to find another way. I hope Putin is forced to desist as soon as possible, allowing long-term peace.

Meanwhile, I hope Odessa isn't targeted again and the offensive continues to roll:

Ukraine Counter-Offensive Update June 14: More Gains and Russia’s HIMARS Woes

Probing pushes in two areas; one village gained; advances in Bakhmut; HIMARS strikes on Russian backlines; more Russian helicopters deployed in south Ukraine.

www.kyivpost.com

More FUBAR:

Russia-Ukraine war: Ukrainian fighter pilots learning to fly F-16 jets as Kyiv claims progress in counteroffensive – as it happened

Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg says Ukrainian personnel being trained so when planes are delivered, pilots are ready

www.theguardian.com

 

[NPC99]

One Of Ukraine’s Meanest Mechanized Brigades Just Joined The Southern Counteroffensive

Ukrainian commanders are rushing more troops into the breach the marines opened in Russian lines near Velyka Novosilka last week.

www.forbes.com

Russian Report Implies Ukrainian Gains on South Front - The Moscow Times

Moscow on Friday reported intense fighting near southeast Ukraine settlements that had until recently been under its control, which appeared to indicate advances by Kyiv's forces. Russian officials — including President Vladimir Putin — have repeated that Ukraine's long-expected...

www.themoscowtimes.com

Seems Ukranian HIMARS might get 300kms strike range next year:

storm shadow:

 

[NPC99]

 

[Mad Vader]

War nerds are having the time of their lives.

 

[NPC99]

Very conflicting reports:


Seems to be a major push coordinated with ammo dump strikes behind the lines.