Ukraine Today

[Adorno]

Protests quickly broke out.

Ukraine conflict: Russia arrests hundreds at anti-war protests

Russia's partial military call-up triggers protests - and a rush for flights to foreign destinations.

www.bbc.com

Apparently young men don't want to die and their mothers don't want to see it.

 

[Weaver]

Yup, it’s the one advantage dictators have. They don’t need to be re-elected. They can go for the long con as long as they have consolidated enough power and influence.

But Putin hasn’t used the drafting mobilisation before, right? Since it was never a war but a “special military operation”?

The previous time drafting mobilisation was used in 1941. This sounds a bit desperate when it’s just an SMO.

Protests quickly broke out.

Apparently young men don't want to die and their mothers don't want to see it.

Very small protests. They will remain inconsequential.

In other news, we have confirmed info that a large group of Azov fighters were exchanged. Including the commanding officers. I don’t understand what sort of pr blunder that is.
Just announced mobilisation and immediately exchange the main Ukrainian nazis, satanists and homosexuals for some nobodies and (reportedly) Medvedchuk of all people.

 

[NPC99]

Seems it'll become criminal for Russian soldiers to surrender: https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...shment-crimes-during-mobilisation-2022-09-20/ 10-year jail term, presumably to be served after however long Ukraine keeps them prisoner. Might not get so many volunteers for prisoner exchanges when the news leaks.

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

Seems it'll become criminal for Russian soldiers to surrender: https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...shment-crimes-during-mobilisation-2022-09-20/ 10-year jail term, presumably to be served after however long Ukraine keeps them prisoner. Might not get so many volunteers for prisoner exchanges when the news leaks.

Does this mean that they did not already have punishments in place for deserters? Interesting.

 

[Adorno]

Surrendering and desertion are different things, though. But in reality some will surrender to avoid fighting/getting killed, and hope to get out of military duty that way.

 

[NPC99]

Surrendering and desertion are different things, though. But in reality some will surrender to avoid fighting/getting killed, and hope to get out of military duty that way.

IDK what Putin expects troops to do if they're surrounded and out of ammo. Banzai charges with bayonets?
Maybe it'll also be criminal for a soldier with his legs blown off, not to run away and avoid capture.

 

[Mad Vader]

Returning Soviet POWs after WW2 served time and needed to be re-educated for any dangerous ideas they might have learned in captivity.
You are expected to die for the Motherland, comrade, not return as a nazi homosexual.

 

[NPC99]

Returning Soviet POWs after WW2 served time and needed to be re-educated for any dangerous ideas they might have learned in captivity.
You are expected to die for the Motherland, comrade, not return as a nazi homosexual.

Yes, I'm old enough to remember the Al Stewart song

 

[Sarin]

IDK what Putin expects troops to do if they're surrounded and out of ammo. Banzai charges with bayonets?
Maybe it'll also be criminal for a soldier with his legs blown off, not to run away and avoid capture.

They're expected to blow themselves, and their captors, up with a grenade.

 

[NPC99]

They're expected to blow themselves, and their captors, up with a grenade.

Given resupply problems, I'd be surprised if every Russian soldier has a suicide grenade. I'd throw mine away at whoever was trying to kill me.

 

[Mad Vader]

Given resupply problems, I'd be surprised if every Russian soldier has a suicide grenade. I'd throw mine away at whoever was trying to kill me.

You won't be given a grenade with that attitude, but an explosive bracelet controlled by your superior officer.
(Note that this is fake news by Indians, the real bracelet is an experimental battlefield psych eval tool. It was probably inspired by similar fake news about Chinese explosive helmets launched by Falun Gong media.)

 

[NPC99]

You won't be given a grenade with that attitude, but an explosive bracelet controlled by your superior officer.

But I'll need my suicide grenade, if I'm going to frag my bracelet controller.

 

[Adorno]

I'm thinking it's related to the poor management, morale and organisation in the Russian army.
Trroops will rather flee than fight if there's even a moderate amount of casualties.
Harsher punishments for surrendering and desertion is a desperate attempt to force troops to take a bullet rather than flee.

This headline is kind of comedic, and scary, but says it very well.

Putin's mobilization plan 'very risky' – DW – 09/23/2022

A security expert told DW that Russian forces are spent, explaining how the partial mobilization could be a one-shot chance against Ukraine. A successful defense may depend on the West's timely supply of further weapons.

www.dw.com

That is incredibly depressing on the one hand.

Incredibly Stalin! I always wondered whether Putin really believes that the Russian society of today is the same society Stalin commanded ... but for the time being, the difference doesn't seem to be all too great.

No wonder numerous Russian men have tried getting to Finland, who are now closing their border to 'tourists'.

Dmitry Bulgakov: Putin fires deputy defence chief amid supply failures

Analysts have cited supply chains as a reason why Russia's invasion of Ukraine has faltered.

www.bbc.com

 

[NPC99]

I'm thinking it's related to the poor management, morale and organisation in the Russian army.
Trroops will rather flee than fight if there's even a moderate amount of casualties.
Harsher punishments for surrendering and desertion is a desperate attempt to force troops to take a bullet rather than flee.

To be fair to Russian soldiers, I can't see how Putin expects them to have any moral conviction that his invasion of Ukraine is sufficiently justified for them to risk their lives. Most weren't even told where they were going until after the invasion. Presumably the only ones still motivated are those who enjoy killing, which form an active minority in every army.

 

[Adorno]

Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces

Kyiv’s troops advanced in southern Kherson province and made additional gains in east

www.theguardian.com

Also of interest:

Russia smuggling Ukrainian grain to help pay for Putin's war

BEIRUT (AP) — When the bulk cargo ship Laodicea docked in Lebanon last summer, Ukrainian diplomats said the vessel was carrying grain stolen by Russia and urged Lebanese officials to impound the ship.

apnews.com

 

[NPC99]

Putin deploys world’s largest submarine with ‘apocalypse’ drone capabilities

A new video shows what appears to be a train hauling military equipment linked to a division of the Russian Ministry of Defense that it in charge of the country’s nuclear arsenal. Meanwhile, …

nypost.com

 

[Adorno]

Hans Christensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, noted that Poseidon torpedoes are still in the development stage and won’t be operational for at least the next several years.

It sounds sensationalistic. It won't have any impact on the current (ground) battles.

 

[NPC99]

It sounds sensationalistic. It won't have any impact on the current (ground) battles.

Probably. I'm just wary of any nuclear redeployment ATM. Let's hope Ukraine can clear the Kherson bridgehead back to the Dnieper before winter freezes the frontlines and gives Putin time to build up forces again.

 

[Mad Vader]

Am I too optimistic or the most cool-headed when I don't see how Putin would use nukes because he is losing a war of aggression on foreign soil?
Russians would use nukes ONLY if their vital territory is threatened and they have no alternatives. This won't ever be the case in Ukraine.
Also, their neutral trading buddies would abandon them for being dangerously irresponsible and they will be isolated from most of the world, not just the West.

Of course, vague threats are free and desirable, but that's it.

隐藏: Just stop worrying and have fun

 

[NPC99]

Am I too optimistic or the most cool-headed

NATO would have a problem responding to a tactical nuke. Difficult to be optimistic in the UK ATM, knowing Liz has our nuclear button in her handbag. She's not known for discussing her next move in Cabinet.