Ukraine Today

[Weaver]

Probably this in part, but also because his popularity has been tanking since covid and the recent string of covid related scandals he's embroiled in, so I think it's largely an attempt to look strong on the issue and regain some public support. If he's replaced by another conservative before we get to our next gen election (scheduled for 2025) then I would imagine we'll continue this same policy regarding Ukraine since there's a lot of public support for Ukraine here and conservative voters tend to favour military support (I think).

I admit that I don’t follow UK domestic affairs very closely as of late. Do you people still worry about covid out there? Hasn’t been a thing for months for us.
But I get what you’re saying. Still, there is a number of world leaders who want to look strong on the issue and talk big. But not all of them are actually as helpful in practise. So in this case I’m looking at missiles not rhetorics.
These harpoons are a major reason why my city can sleep at night. At least a few hours between air alarms.

 

[Pentagathoos]

No one seems to be worried about covid anymore no, the scandals are actually from when we were in lockdown. The conservative leadership was pretty much just flat out ignoring their own lockdown laws and having parties at number 10 whilst we would get fines for seeing our own families. The stories have been coming out in the last few months and it's obvious that Boris was involved but he won't step down.
Doesn't look like his party are willing to force him out yet either, despite losing recent by-elections so I wouldn't expect to see any change in our support anytime soon. Hopefully this war will be over well before our next GE.

 

[Mad Vader]

Doesn't look like his party are willing to force him out yet either, despite losing recent by-elections so I wouldn't expect to see any change in our support anytime soon.

They are willing to force him out, but they pulled the trigger too early when opposition to him was not in the majority and now must wait for a year to try again. The Tory strategy now seems to be for the right-wing press to put pressure on him along with cabinet ministers resignations. They also might change their internal no-confidence rules specifically to oust him quickly before he loses them more voters.
He's done for.

If a clown gives you nice missiles, he is still a clown. That he personally aspires to appear Churchillian makes this even funnier.

 

[Weaver]

Not sure what you’re getting at. Sure, he’s goofy enough. And apparently was caught on hypocrisy. I’m happy with what Boris is saying and doing, but then again, I’m not a UK citizen.
On a side note, our president is an actual clown and he’s the best we had since forever.

 

[Adorno]

*Caught on crime

 

[Pentagathoos]

Yeah he broke the laws his government implemented and then outright lied about it in parliament. People are fairly pissed off with that whole situation here. His stance on this war is (I think) popular, but it's not exactly inconceivable he'll be forced out of the Cons leadership fairly soon.

 

[Althix]

On a side note, our president is an actual clown and he’s the best we had since forever.

Is he? I mean aside from him being a piano player. Major corruption across all levels, cancelation of all channels except "his" (yeah can be explained by war time, but iirc certain channels has been canceled because these channels "were selling narcissist"), elimination of opposing political movements, kidnapping of ukraine citizens and not to forget neo-nazi movements.
As i see it, Ukraine is totally corrupted dictatorship, when Russia is a coppurted police state and/or dictatorship. I can understand why people in Russia call Putin the best president so far, but i fail to see a any reason why people call Zelensky the best president of Ukraine.

 

[Mad Vader]

Is he? I mean aside from him being a piano player. Major corruption across all levels, cancelation of all channels except "his" (yeah can be explained by war time, but iirc certain channels has been canceled because these channels "were selling narcissist"), elimination of opposing political movements, kidnapping of ukraine citizens and not to forget neo-nazi movements.
As i see it, Ukraine is totally corrupted dictatorship, when Russia is a coppurted police state and/or dictatorship. I can understand why people in Russia call Putin the best president so far, but i fail to see a any reason why people call Zelensky the best president of Ukraine.

I could explain it to you, or you could stop watching exclusively Russian propaganda and see for yourself.

 

[NPC99]

but i fail to see a any reason why people call Zelensky the best president of Ukraine.

Wars polarise politics. People sacrifice peacetime priorities when their homeland is invaded. Millions of years of evolution make us very territorial. Zelensky is Ukraine's rallying point.

 

[Weaver]

*Caught on crime

I had no idea throwing parties at home during covid was a criminal offence in the UK. Crazy stuff. Well, I guess the UK is corrupt enough to let it slide if you’re powerful and rich?
I see why people are pissed. But admittedly I’m in a tunnel vision mode rn. We have hundreds of casualties every day. Every week at least one person I personally know is killed. I can be drafted at any moment. Even if I survive I can lose my home and my livelihood. Not just my country. What I care about is decisive and strong political and military action. What I don’t care about is someone throwing decadent parties on their private territory or looking like a young Donald Trump tossed into a washing machine.
I realise that people elsewhere live in different realities but I have very little emotional and moral resource to care about those things in earnest.

Is he? I mean aside from him being a piano player. Major corruption across all levels, cancelation of all channels except "his" (yeah can be explained by war time, but iirc certain channels has been canceled because these channels "were selling narcissist"), elimination of opposing political movements, kidnapping of ukraine citizens and not to forget neo-nazi movements.
As i see it, Ukraine is totally corrupted dictatorship, when Russia is a coppurted police state and/or dictatorship. I can understand why people in Russia call Putin the best president so far, but i fail to see a any reason why people call Zelensky the best president of Ukraine.

Dude, you don’t even have to be educated in XXI cent to avoid embarrassing yourself. Just Google what a dictatorship is before you hit that post button.
Obviously Ukraine is not one. It is very corrupt, that at least is true. Corruption is decreasing under Zelenskiy but I sure wish it was faster. Channels and parties banned since the start of the war were ideologically and financially affiliated with the Russian government. I don’t understand on what planet you wouldn’t make that decision. It speaks highly in his favour that they were allowed all the way until the war started. There are still lots of opposition channels and parties intact, including the ex-president’s which is actually the main contender for power. Kidnappings - you’ll need to explain what you mean by that. And neo nazi stuff is a tired red herring. We have no more of them than any other country. Which has nothing to do with the president. I don’t think there are less ultra right movements under Biden, as there weren’t less ultra lefties under Trump. That’s not an intelligent argument. And the fact that zero political parties running on ultra right platform made it to the parliament (unlike some other major countries, you know who they are) speaks volumes of our society’s disposition in general.
So yes. Spend those 10 minutes on the wiki before you go and insult an entire nation.

 

[NPC99]

I had no idea throwing parties at home during covid was a criminal offence in the UK.

It's not. Fixed penalty notices are “non recordable”, summary offences, which do not come with prison sentences. They are only punishable by fines. Criminal charges can only be brought if the fine isn't paid. During Covid lockdown there were legal limits on how many people could congregate to limit transmitting infections. With increased vaccination those legal limits were repealed. The parties happened late in 2020 or early 2021. However, there is no time limit for the police to issue a fixed penalty notice. Suppressed facts took time to surface.

It's merely offensive to someone who obeyed the rules, which stopped them attending a close relative's funeral or marriage (or comforting a dying relative in hospital), that the chief lawmakers broke their own rules for trivial parties.

To understand Johnson's hypocrisy, you need to have watched his national Covid broadcasts.
He said all the right things but practised none of them. You'll be pleased to note that his political troubles make him more likely to support Ukraine above and beyond the UK's National interests.

 

[Adorno]

Is he? I mean aside from him being a piano player. Major corruption across all levels, cancelation of all channels except "his" (yeah can be explained by war time, but iirc certain channels has been canceled because these channels "were selling narcissist"), elimination of opposing political movements, kidnapping of ukraine citizens and not to forget neo-nazi movements.
As i see it, Ukraine is totally corrupted dictatorship, when Russia is a coppurted police state and/or dictatorship. I can understand why people in Russia call Putin the best president so far, but i fail to see a any reason why people call Zelensky the best president of Ukraine.

Sounds like you've been exposed to some pro-Russian propaganda.
The channels you mention are likely the (3) TV stations that were closed shortly after Zelenskiy took office.
They were owned by Taras Kozak (accused of financing terrorism) and were basically propaganda tools.
This at a time when Russia had annnexed Crimea and supported 'separatists' in the east.
Fighting Russian (enemy) influence in Ukraine has been a difficult task given their close ties, but it should be obvious to anyone why it's necessary in times of war. Spinning it into an issue of freedom of press/expression is simply a hypocritical ploy.
Ukraine is very corrupt but that's beside the point. So is Russia. There's no ideal world here.
I think the kidnapping you speak of was the arrest of some Russian media person. You have to elaborate (if you know more than a propaganda headline).
In short, it's far more complex than you make it seem.

Ukraine bans pro-Russian TV stations – DW – 02/03/2021

Ukraine's pro-Western president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has signed decrees banning pro-Russian media outlets. The broadcasters had their licences revoked and are set to stay off the air for the next five years.

www.dw.com

Taras Kozak - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

I can understand why people in Russia call Putin the best president so far, but i fail to see a any reason why people call Zelensky the best president of Ukraine.

There's a lot to unpack here.

 

[Mad Vader]

There's a lot to unpack here.

That's what she WinRAR said.

 

[Anthropoid]

To answer Anthropoid, I do not blame Obama (exclusively).
I can see a consistent approach of the bi-partisan US establishment to Ukraine, Russia, or should I say to everything they see as USSR if they squint a bit and the picture blurs.

The tone was set by Bush Sr. in the 1991 Chicken Kyiv Speech. We knew that what Americans were really worried about, was a bunch of "Balkan" maniacs with heaps of nukes. So as far as all republics leaving the USSR were concerned, giving away the nukes was actually a precondition for independence. Once we gave away the nukes, we were more or less left alone and allowed to do our own thing. No one took Budapest memorandum too seriously anyway.

Then we had a slew of red flags which outlined the Russian MO in the region for decades to come. First, there was Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Then the first attempted coup in Crimea. Some frictions with Kazakhstan. Russia was putting its foot in every available door to maintain a premise for future conflicts. So it developed into an invasion in Georgia in 2008. Then Crimea and Donbas in 2014 happened. What we're seeing today was probably the endspiel, where Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia were to join Russia again and separatist republics, having served their purpose, would be dissolved. The US was apparently ok with this up to this point, at least they saw it as an inevitability. What the US was probably preparing for was stopping the combined Russian and Ukrainian army in Poland and Baltic states a few years from now. The fact that Ukraine stood strong probably was a shock not just for Russia but the US as well. My take is they thought the Ukrainian government to actually be a cleptocratic regime not prepared to stand behind its declared principles and not supported by the population, so they expected the country to fold like a house of cards when Russian tanks enter. They weren't paying attention, now they're so surprised they still don't have a fully formed diplomatic position on this war it seems.

It's not about Obama. Every US president started his cadence with "relations restart".with Putin.
We received some support during Obama's tenure. We received a bit more during Trump's presidency. We receive a hell of a lot more right now. It's very carefully measured. So that we neither lose nor win. I do believe that the main US fear of Russia's balkanisation still stands. If Russian army is decimated and chased away from Ukraine it may start a chain reaction and we'll see a bunch of Kadyrovs with nukes where Russia once stood. So...

Russian army is fatigued but so is ours. I think US is orchestrating the formation of some sort of a Hindenburg line. Which will keep Putin's regime intact but under constant pressure and preoccupied, to make it shut up and sit still for a decade.
Still it's better than Scholz's initial hopes to see Ukraine slowly devoured or partitioned with later normalization of relations with Russia on even more beneficial terms.

Our real friends right now are Poland, Baltic states, Czechia, Slovakia. Guys who basically know they're next. And surprisingly the UK. I attribute this personally to Johnson, who is apparently a huge admirer of Churchill and would loathe to be remembered as the second Chamerlain. They all send as much weapons as they can afford. USA can do so much more though but they won't.

To answer Anthropoid, I do not blame Obama (exclusively).
I can see a consistent approach of the bi-partisan US establishment to Ukraine, Russia, or should I say to everything they see as USSR if they squint a bit and the picture blurs.

The tone was set by Bush Sr. in the 1991 Chicken Kyiv Speech. We knew that what Americans were really worried about, was a bunch of "Balkan" maniacs with heaps of nukes. So as far as all republics leaving the USSR were concerned, giving away the nukes was actually a precondition for independence. Once we gave away the nukes, we were more or less left alone and allowed to do our own thing. No one took Budapest memorandum too seriously anyway.

Then we had a slew of red flags which outlined the Russian MO in the region for decades to come. First, there was Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Then the first attempted coup in Crimea. Some frictions with Kazakhstan. Russia was putting its foot in every available door to maintain a premise for future conflicts. So it developed into an invasion in Georgia in 2008. Then Crimea and Donbas in 2014 happened. What we're seeing today was probably the endspiel, where Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia were to join Russia again and separatist republics, having served their purpose, would be dissolved. The US was apparently ok with this up to this point, at least they saw it as an inevitability. What the US was probably preparing for was stopping the combined Russian and Ukrainian army in Poland and Baltic states a few years from now. The fact that Ukraine stood strong probably was a shock not just for Russia but the US as well. My take is they thought the Ukrainian government to actually be a cleptocratic regime not prepared to stand behind its declared principles and not supported by the population, so they expected the country to fold like a house of cards when Russian tanks enter. They weren't paying attention, now they're so surprised they still don't have a fully formed diplomatic position on this war it seems.

It's not about Obama. Every US president started his cadence with "relations restart".with Putin.
We received some support during Obama's tenure. We received a bit more during Trump's presidency. We receive a hell of a lot more right now. It's very carefully measured. So that we neither lose nor win. I do believe that the main US fear of Russia's balkanisation still stands. If Russian army is decimated and chased away from Ukraine it may start a chain reaction and we'll see a bunch of Kadyrovs with nukes where Russia once stood. So...

Russian army is fatigued but so is ours. I think US is orchestrating the formation of some sort of a Hindenburg line. Which will keep Putin's regime intact but under constant pressure and preoccupied, to make it shut up and sit still for a decade.
Still it's better than Scholz's initial hopes to see Ukraine slowly devoured or partitioned with later normalization of relations with Russia on even more beneficial terms.

Our real friends right now are Poland, Baltic states, Czechia, Slovakia. Guys who basically know they're next. And surprisingly the UK. I attribute this personally to Johnson, who is apparently a huge admirer of Churchill and would loathe to be remembered as the second Chamerlain. They all send as much weapons as they can afford. USA can do so much more though but they won't.

Thanks for that clarification Weaver. You are probably correct in almost all respects . . . In particular, I think you are correct that the biggest concern that unifies all the U.S. executives going back all the way to at least Bush senior is that of 'rogue former breakaway Soviet states with nukes.' It is difficult to fully dismiss this fear, but the fact that accepting it means compromising where the lives of decent Ukrainians might be preserved is what makes it sickening.

I wish you all the best.

Slava Ukraini!

We all love Americans jumping in political threads with completely biased, partisan views. It smells like American TV in the morning.

Doesn't change the fact that I was correct back in 2014 and I can come here and rub it in the faces of all those who accused me of a being an insane warmongering rabid dog for wishing Obama would vigorously support Ukraine.

@Weaver if you feel inclined, I would love to hear what your assessment of the conflict is at this stage. It seems that either (a) those of us who have been eagerly lapping up the pro-Ukrainian information war in weeks past were being misled or (b) there is some other form(s) of major misinformation brewing at this stage--possibly intentional by UA government to create a false sense of growing weakness and impending collapse, so as to manipulate Russian leadership, though that is admittedly a bit far-fetched.

Some weeks back various Western defense analyst groups were forecasting that Russian forces were on the verge of collapse, or that they had "at best, one major offensive left in them . . ." But now, some of those same "experts" and various other 'pro-Ukrainian Youtubers seem to be forecasting an ongoing collapse of Ukrainian hold over the remainder of Donbas.

 

[Mad Vader]

I think every serious military analyst from the beginning said that Ukraine is fighting a delaying action (with limited counter-offensives). The Russians were over-extended in the early days and paid for that. Now they fight concentrated and take full advantage of artillery, they are winning where they put the weight of their forces. It's a slow, methodical process in fulfilling their war aim of capturing Donbas.
Russian morale is a problem from them, but that doesn't mean whole units will collapse and run away. Ukrainian morale began to be a problem as well, as they are taking heavy casualties in the heavy fighting.

 

[Anthropoid]

I looked up Sievierodonetsk on Google Earth to look at roughly how big it is. Without getting super sophisticated, I think we can say with reasonable accuracy that the Russians at Sievierodonetsk have gained an area that is about 10km x 20km (it is actually longer than that, but it is narrower at one side [the south] than the other so calling it 10x20km just makes it easier (I think I'm probably being generous to the Russians with this number).

So, The Battle of Sievierodonetsk: 1 month, 2 weeks, 5 days. 49 days for the Russians to take 200 km^2 of strategically useless territory which is not a strong position for further advance (though the south of Lyschansk is arguably better) and offers little value other than being able to say "100% of Luhansk Oblast is liberated."

Ukraine claims Russian losses just for this battle (Rob recounts UA claims at about 24:00):

4,930 total casualties, 192 tanks, 403 AFVs, 142 artillery tubes, 10 fixed-wing aircraft, 30 helicopters and 102 recon UAVs.

So if that cost-ratio were to hold constant for the rest of Donbas that would be something like (roughly):
0.245 days (per square km)
25 soldiers (per square km)
0.96 tanks
2.01 AFVs
0.71 arty tubes
0.05 aircraft
0.15 helicopters
0.51 UAVs

That is roughly what Russian paid per square kilometer to take control of that ~200 square kms of Sievierodonetsk (assuming we take Ukrainian government at their word . . .).

How much more to go to get the whole Donbas?

Very roughly I think we can say that the remainder of the Donbas region is an approximately equilateral triangle with sides in the 130km ballpark.

The formula for the area of that shape is SQRT(3) / 4 * A^2 (square root of 3 divided by 4 multiplied by A squared [with A being the length of the sides]). (1.73205080757 / 4) = 0.43301270189 130^2 = 16,900 0.43301270189 * 16,900 = 7,317.9 km^2

The Russians have to conquer an additional 7,317 square kilometers to take the rest of Donbas. If we adopt the most simplistic rubric (which is unlikely to be 100% accurate, but about the best rubric we have at hand) of the rate of cost Russia had to pay to conquer Sievierodonetsk, then we can say that taking the rest of Donbas (assuming both Russia and Ukraine's combat power stays where it has been during the battle of Sievierodonetsk) would incur the following costs:
7317*0.245= 1,792.6 days (4.91 years)
7317*25 = 182,925 soldiers
7317*0.96 = 7,024.3 tanks
7317*2.01 = 14,707.2 AFVs
7317*0.71 = 5,195.1 arty
7317*0.05 = 365.9 aircraft
7317*0.15 = 1,097.6 helicopters
7317*0.51 = 3,731.7 UAVs

Of note here: a) TOTAL Russian military was only in the 900,000 ballpark in Jan 2022, with only about 610k ground [CIA World Factbook says "300,000 ground forces"]; b) total tanks was probably only in the ~6k ballpark, though some estimates indicate up to ~10,000 "in storage" . . . 7000 is a lot in any event . . .

There was this famous Greek king named Pyrrhus of Epirus who is famous for having "victorious battles" that were so costly that he wound up losing the war. It would seem that Putin is well on his way to outdoing King Pyrrhus . . . by an order of magnitude or more . . .

 

[Mad Vader]

You lost me at "Ukraine claims Russian losses". The rest of it is just a bunch of unnecessary math that doesn't mean anything even if the numbers were real. Get independent estimates or you look like a sports fan with all the wishful thinking.
Towns are not conquered for their square mileage, but because they are communication centers and, yes, for the prestige value of conquering Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in their entirety. Town battles are notoriously costly in infantry, lengthy and unsuitable for armor deployment, so what happens in a town battle doesn't translate to field battles and maneuver warfare in open terrain.
My advice is not to try hard to "prove" how the Russians are stuck, but to look objectively at the estimates of their combat readiness by military analysts. And certainly stay off Youtube and some right-wing fisherman commenting on wars.

 

[Weaver]

I wish you all the best.

Slava Ukraini!

Thank you. ?

@Weaver if you feel inclined, I would love to hear what your assessment of the conflict is at this stage. It seems that either (a) those of us who have been eagerly lapping up the pro-Ukrainian information war in weeks past were being misled or (b) there is some other form(s) of major misinformation brewing at this stage--possibly intentional by UA government to create a false sense of growing weakness and impending collapse, so as to manipulate Russian leadership, though that is admittedly a bit far-fetched.

Some weeks back various Western defense analyst groups were forecasting that Russian forces were on the verge of collapse, or that they had "at best, one major offensive left in them . . ." But now, some of those same "experts" and various other 'pro-Ukrainian Youtubers seem to be forecasting an ongoing collapse of Ukrainian hold over the remainder of Donbas.

It's all speculation due to the fog of war. I can not reliably estimate how bad it is on the front. But I am sure that regardless of the real situation, the Ukrainian leadership speaks of a dire situation mostly to press western allies who are still on the fence (specifically Germany and USA) to finally send in military aid in serious amounts.

The math in your last post is useless. Ukrainian territory is not homogenous when it comes to how defensible it is. The area around Donbas is heavily fortified, especially the cities. If Russians break the Donbas front, they will advance at a completely different pace.
And Russians are now fighting differently too. At first, they planned to take cities by storm. This was good for us because city warfare makes an advantage in artillery and armored vehicles less decisive. It's just a massive infantry slaughter-fest and our infantry is way more motivated and steadfast. After taking heavy losses Russians switched to a more brutal tactic. Now they raze towns to the ground with air strikes and long-range artillery making them indefensible. Our soldiers withdraw and they occupy the ruins. Rinse and repeat. So it's a losing battle for us until we get more western artillery. Lendlease won't start until October, Germans are still pulling our leg like a Turkish ice-cream vendor. So our strategy is to hold out, and slow down the Russian advance for now. We're waiting for the US to take a more decisive stance.
So in a way, the war actually happens on the diplomatic front. If the US refrains from increasing military support we eventually lose, simple as that.

 

[Lord Grindelvald]

NATO is also upping their game.

Jens Stoltenberg: "A broad dialogue between NATO and #Russia is no longer possible" #NATO will increase the number of rapid reaction forces from 40,000 to 300,000 people. In addition, the alliance promises to increase support for #Georgia and conduct more exercises there.

Increase from 40K to 300K is considerable and wouldn't be done needlessly. Do they know something we don't? What are they expecting? Is this in preparation of UA's acceptance into NATO?