Ukraine Today

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Pentagathoos

Veteran
Is Bromden still around? I'd be curious to hear what the general Hungarian sentiment is around this invasion, Orban's being the slimy rat bastard he tends to be but I don't imagine most Hungarians want a Russian puppet on their border.
 

Trueten

Section Moderator
WBVC
So it seems that a nice load of jet-fighters will be provided to Ukraine by EU countries:
Bolgaria (MiG-29) - 16 units
Bolgaria (Su-25) - 14 units
Poland (MiG-29) - 28 units
Slovakia (MiG-29) - 12 units

I literally have no idea how Russia plans to win. The morale is on Ukrainian side against russian. Basically russian troops dont know exactly what this war is about.
Same as when I was asked "Why would Russia attack Ukraine?", my short answer is "I have no idea". Well, I sort of actually do know, but its a bit complicated one.

Russia would call in total mobilization to stand any chance, but with the amount of their tanks and other vehicle been burnt everyday, what will they send - inf only army? And they dont really have much allies to send them more vehicles. And at the same time Ukraine barely used any tanks since majority of battles are stationary defensive ones.
 

eddiemccandless

Knight at Arms
WBNWVC
So it seems that a nice load of jet-fighters will be provided to Ukraine by EU countries:
Bolgaria (MiG-29) - 16 units
Bolgaria (Su-25) - 14 units
Poland (MiG-29) - 28 units
Slovakia (MiG-29) - 12 units

I literally have no idea how Russia plans to win. The morale is on Ukrainian side against russian. Basically russian troops dont know exactly what this war is about.
Same as when I was asked "Why would Russia attack Ukraine?", my short answer is "I have no idea". Well, I sort of actually do know, but its a bit complicated one.

Russia would call in total mobilization to stand any chance, but with the amount of their tanks and other vehicle been burnt everyday, what will they send - inf only army? And they dont really have much allies to send them more vehicles. And at the same time Ukraine barely used any tanks since majority of battles are stationary defensive ones.
I think Russia is currently engaged in a European, 2022 version of the Vietnam war. It's bound to go about as well as that went for the US. I am honestly a bit surprised that someone like Putin engaged himself in something like this, but maybe there's a long game that we still have to see. Even setting aside everything else I don't understand what Russia could possibly have to gain from this.
 

Trueten

Section Moderator
WBVC
There is no big game. Russias elites are crooks. Mafia based structure. And they often use 'bully' tactics as in to threattening to achieve results. And they usually do.

EU and the West in general is thought to be pussies that can be threatened and will do whatever Russia says out of fear.
But the West did not fall for the bluff and basically said "well then go on, strike if you dare". The bluff didnt work.

If Putin retreats - he aint a Alpha-dog anymore and risked to lose a lot behind his back.
Democratic states dont suffer such things.

And as of Ukraine as a target - I guess they were convinced that Zelensky would freak out like a little kid and runaway + somebody told him that ukrainians worship russians and Put in and that the russian troops will be greeted with flowers among the locals.
But that is so retarded.

And heres another portion from today:
KrD8a.jpg
Bayrakrar's harvest:
-96 tanks
-20 grads
-8 gas transporting trucks
 
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Weaver

Count
Some anecdotal reports from my mates in other cities:

Kyiv, a guy serves in Teroborona (Local Defence): Troops are well-equipped, don't even pick up trophies. Destroyed the armored vehicles in the new attacking column and are sending people to catch the Russians in the nearby woods. They want to undress them and tie them to trees for the night to get revenge for what's happening in Kharkiv.

Another dude in Kyiv: He's not far from Vasilkiv. Said we definitely still have fighter jets and attack helis. Watched a heli stuffing something with rockets earlier today. Air defense still works and intercepts rockets that fly to the airport.

Kharkiv: The guy does not know how to fight so he joined local patrol. Non-militarized. Said they're hitting living quarters in the outskirts with unguided rockets and it's likely a bloodbath. Waiting for casualties report tomorrow.

A guy from Cherkasy, south of Kyiv: Went to Teroborona HQ today and tried to enlist. Said he had his own equipment and rifle. They said they're full and that they'll call him if needs be.

In my city: Teroborona battalion is full and they're sending people to the countryside (smaller towns) if they're eager. Still no sign of a genuine invasion by land here, just rocket strikes, a single unsuccessful paratrooper landing and saboteurs.
 

Pentagathoos

Veteran
Russia would call in total mobilization to stand any chance, but with the amount of their tanks and other vehicle been burnt everyday, what will they send - inf only army?
Honestly at this point I'm not sure if arming the Russian population is a good idea for Putin, they must be pretty pissed off already with their economy absolutely tanking within a few days.
 

Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

Dancing to electro-pop like a robot since 1984
Subforum Moderator
M&BWBNWWF&SVC
that's honestly not a good assessment. russia has plenty of reserves in both manpower and materiel without necessarily having to totally mobilise - the issue isn't having them, it's where they are and how long it will take them to deploy to the operational zone, if so desired.
 

Mabons

Sergeant Knight
M&BWBWF&SNWVC
Like all of you I didnt really understand or follow why Russia made such a rash decision to invade, but I watched this video and it made some sense.

It doesn't justify it in the eyes of the world but I at least understand it now, if the video is true.
 

Nodice83

Knight
WBWF&SNWVC
Bayrakrar's harvest:
-96 tanks
-20 grads
-8 gas transporting trucks
This is literally a modern 'wunderwaffe'. Those Bayraktar's sure gave you guys a cutting edge.
that's honestly not a good assessment. russia has plenty of reserves in both manpower and materiel without necessarily having to totally mobilise - the issue isn't having them, it's where they are and how long it will take them to deploy to the operational zone, if so desired.
fair, but neither they are close to the unbeatable force they portrayed themselves for some time now...
 

Mad Vader

Duhpressed
Duke
M&BWB
I think Russia is currently engaged in a European, 2022 version of the Vietnam war. It's bound to go about as well as that went for the US. I am honestly a bit surprised that someone like Putin engaged himself in something like this, but maybe there's a long game that we still have to see. Even setting aside everything else I don't understand what Russia could possibly have to gain from this.
Here's my take informed by Guardian analysts combined with ignorance of the details.
1. Putin decided already in 2014 that he can't get Ukraine back to the Russian fold by asking nicely, so he decided to take from it what he could: Crimea and the Russian separatist states.
2. Putin is semi-retiring in 2024 and thinks about his legacy to Russia. He decided he wants to end the Ukrainian standoff by force.
3. He predicted he would bring an overwhelming force to secure a quick victory and demilitarize Ukraine by destroying its military equipment after they surrender and that Ukraine would be forced to accept harsh terms about limiting their military size and keeping away from NATO and EU. This is a very similar scenario to Georgia 2008. He would also expand the borders of the Russian entities to take much more territory.
His army would retreat from Ukraine once this is done, there's no reason to stay there after they get what they want, they don't want to fight insurgents and they don't even need to install puppets. They do need to protect the separatist republics though, so some army units may stay there.
4. He didn't count on Ukraine's resolute defense and the willingness of the EU to inflict pain on Russia at cost to themselves, which was again inspired by Ukrainian's spirit of resistance and the leadership of their president.
5. He may still win and do his Georgia thing, but he may also get stuck in the big cities and be bled to death (at the cost of Ukrainian civilian lives, because he will use artillery in urban areas if he's stuck there).
 

Arvenski

Count
M&BWB
Good to hear Ukraine is getting more fighters. From what I gathered (mostly reading this thread) I got the impression the Russians had air superiority, which is not good, especially if there's a threat of large-scale bombing.
 

Swadius 2.0

Grandmaster Knight
I realize that it does sound pretty outrageous in this day and age. But the issue I have with the pragmatic western diplomats is that they seem to believe that people from other cultures have more or less the same values as they do. That "Russians love their children too" and all that crap. The economic and diplomatic pressure they apply will not hit the target. In a scenario where Putin rules an economically prospering country or three piss-poor countries filled with nukes, Putin will always pick the latter because that is exactly his goal. He has no domestic goals other than maintaining stability by force and squeezing out the resources to fuel his geopolitical ambitions. He stops only where he is stopped by another bully brandishing a gun.

That's not an outlandish observation. You are right that Western diplomats, or really any diplomat from any other country, can have a hard time understanding how different cultures and cultural expectations impact how power structures work within a country's leadership. I do not think the sanctions are intended to hurt the Russian people first and foremost and expect Putin to be a bleeding heart, but rather to shift incentives for those around Putin, and incentivize them to decide that perhaps they should be the ones brandishing the gun. One of the aims of enacting sanctions is to cause turmoil and shake the foundations of the political landscape within a country to shift the incentives of those power brokers that the leader relies on for their voluntary cooperation. No leader wages war on their own, marshals resources on his own, or intimidates his political foes on his own, all political structures are a house of cards, and they all have a rhythm where they all fall if the table is shook in a certain way.

Didn't they croak like 200 Wagner boys then with an air strike and Putin did not say a word afterward?

Oh yeah it's was pretty bad. The Russians tried building a pontoon bridge across a river to reach the refinery that the US forces were holding. I think that bridge got shelled several times by US observers. Even so they pressed on which eventually led to the bombardment that killed several hundred. Russia has a fairly normal armed forces structure, but sometimes I wonder in heavily corrupted countries like Russia where rules are a lot more touch and go, if it wasn't some commander trying to take the refinery to see if he could line his own pockets. Apparently buyers for fuel in that region are available even if you're ISIS.

Good to hear Ukraine is getting more fighters. From what I gathered (mostly reading this thread) I got the impression the Russians had air superiority, which is not good, especially if there's a threat of large-scale bombing.

This is like the weird part of the whole invasion. Russia's air-force far outnumbers and outguns Ukraine, but air superiority over an area should pretty much guarantee a very quick and decisive war like Iraq and Afghanistan, or Syria against ISIS.
Either the Russians haven't had their air force go in full force yet, can't send more than a fraction of them at a time, or Ukraine anti-air defences are still holding. Most of the verified videos coming out of Ukraine are of rocket and shell bombardment strangely. There's also claims of Ukraine using Turkish drones to bomb armor, but I'm pretty sure these fall pretty quickly to an fighters if they are around.
 

Adorno

Bedroom Assassin
Archduke
WBNWM&BVC
Either the Russians haven't had their air force go in full force yet...
There are reports of a 40 mile (64 km) long convoy headed towards Kyiv. That's what you can do when you have the air.
I think it's too soon to underestimate the Russians. They have big reserves.

In Finland NATO membership is discussed today.
 

Cyborg Eastern European

Canis Mechanicus
Archduke
but I'm pretty sure these fall pretty quickly to an fighters if they are around.
Well, they started putting up footage of the things nailing Russian convoys, so evidently, they're not getting intercepted that much.

That said, they should have somewhere around 50 of the things, from what I dug up, and Russia claimed at least 4 destroyed.
 
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