Ukraine Today

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Adorno

Bedroom Assassin
Archduke
WBNWM&BVC
I'm surprised by the extend of the campaign. It's actually a full scale invasion.
Thought it would 'just' be scaling up the activities in the eastern regions under the guise of "protecting local Russians". That lie doesn't work anymore.
Perhaps a 'blitzkrieg' to swiftly crush the Ukrainian forces before any foreign powers intervene, while it all bogs down in empty words on diplomacy.
Von der Leyen still talks of about sanctions while bombs are falling. What a joke.
Stoltenberg says NATO "had deployed thousands more troops to the eastern part of the alliance". Clearly just a defensive measure that means nothing.
Macron and Johnson just condemning...

tl;dr Looks like no one will do anything, and Russia can pretty much do what they want.
 

Mad Vader

Duhpressed
Duke
M&BWB
The hope is that even if the Russians occupy Ukraine, put a puppet regime, and redraw the borders, they will not be able to hold their gains and that economic and diplomatic isolation will wear them out.
The case now is for increasingly tougher sanctions, never military intervention.
 
Yeah, as someone living in a probable fallout zone from both sides, I really don't get the 'lolol just more useless sanctions'. Especially with how many of those voices come from my own country, get Poland to be European battlefield early on, so that we get the remainder of the century to rebuild, huh?
 

kurczak

Section Moderator
WB
I am not sure what the alternative is though. World War 3?
Cut Russia off. Off and off. No SWIFT, no trade WHATSOEVER. Put a ****ing sweater on and let them choke on their natural gas. Nationalize ALL Russian nationals' money in western banks. Lend and Lease to Ukraine everything you can possibly spare.

The Russian state understands force and force only. Every sign of weakness only encourages it to go further.
 
Judging by the open source info, I'm surprised the Ukrainian army can organize and stage counter-attacks. If they manage to establish defensive positions, this may turn into Russia's Schlieffen plan.
My two coins.
 
Show globalism doesn't work. I fragile at best Europe get its gas from Russia and china for manufacturing cheep goods . Thats now come and slapped Europe in the face. other foolish choices European leaders have made will also slap them in the face. There needs to be a big nation others or scared off America as failed due to wokeness just like Europe .
 

Adorno

Bedroom Assassin
Archduke
WBNWM&BVC
That is completely incoherent to me.

I doubt the Ukrainian military can do much. The Russians are far superior, attacking on multiple fronts with the entire military arsenal.
It's a big country but they only need to conquer the largest cities and take over parliament.
 

Vermillion_Hawk

Butthurt Bushmaster
Grandmaster Knight
WF&SWBVC
Such a defeatist, the Ukrainian army isn't completely incapable. I suppose we'll see how it turns out though. Russia is a big country and, large as their army is, they've been suffering from economic instability for a while and, from a strategic perspective, they can only commit a small portion of their forces to the Ukraine. There's a ton of misinformation out there right now but some of the reports seem to suggest not all things are going according to plan straight out of the gate.
 

Cyborg Eastern European

Canis Mechanicus
Archduke
The Russians are far superior, attacking on multiple fronts with the entire military arsenal.
Fog of War issues for now, but Wiki pins both forces at around 200k at the moment. And several of those fronts are difficult terrain for ground units at the moment.

It's a big country but they only need to conquer the largest cities and take over parliament.
Governments move, and the largest cities are worst thing you can attack.
 

Sundeki

Master Knight
M&BWB
Cut Russia off. Off and off. No SWIFT, no trade WHATSOEVER. Put a ****ing sweater on and let them choke on their natural gas. Nationalize ALL Russian nationals' money in western banks. Lend and Lease to Ukraine everything you can possibly spare.

The Russian state understands force and force only. Every sign of weakness only encourages it to go further.
This might've worked 20 years ago, but since the West has spent the last 30 years propping up crackpot Chinese communists, sanctions are largely a meme at this point. Russia and China signed a pact a few weeks ago saying they'd back each other up, and while this won't amount to a catastrophic global war, it means that Russia can't truly be cut off from international commodity and capital streams, since nobody wants to do anything about China. Mass sanctions with Russia will probably just lead to them accelerating their pivot to China, and Russia is less dependent on everyone else than Europe is on Russia's oil and natural gas. Putin is clearly willing to sacrifice short term revenues for long term goals, and he knew the sanctions were coming, and yet acted anyway. So I don't know how effective they would be, honestly.

20 years of pointless warmongering in the Middle East, that cost trillions and accomplished nothing but empowering Islamic Extremists has worn everybody out. People can justify a costly and tiresome war if there is an achievable victory. What is to be gained from fighting a war with Russia in it's own backyard? All over what amounts to post-Soviet territorial disputes that weren't resolved previously? I have no problem with ordinary Ukrainians of course, but what is to be gained from propping up one Eastern European kleptocracy in a war against another?

If there's going to be a commitment in Ukraine, it needs to be all in for total victory, or nothing. And yet total victory is impossible because of Nuclear Deterrence. I can't think of a good reason to send tens of thousands to die to defend the special interests of some Ukrainian Oligarch from a Russian Oligarch, especially if the final outcome is going to be the same. If Russia achieves a relatively quick victory, which seems the most likely outcome, then in all likelihood Putin will trade Ukraine it's sovereignty back for the lifting of Western Sanctions, while keeping the Donbass region. But nothing in politics seems to make any sense anymore, so who knows.
 

Adorno

Bedroom Assassin
Archduke
WBNWM&BVC
Such a defeatist, the Ukrainian army isn't completely incapable. I suppose we'll see how it turns out though. Russia is a big country and, large as their army is, they've been suffering from economic instability for a while and, from a strategic perspective, they can only commit a small portion of their forces to the Ukraine. There's a ton of misinformation out there right now but some of the reports seem to suggest not all things are going according to plan straight out of the gate.
Jack Watling, of the Royal United Services Institute estimate the Ukrainian forces at 125,600.
Also, remember Russia has invested a lot in their military and are more experienced.
 

kurczak

Section Moderator
WB
(Serious) sanctions might not be a magic wand, but it will still make life harder for them and it's better than sitting and sighing that oh well nothing can be done. This is similar to saying "nothing will cure all cases of illness or injury so we can as well not bother with the whole medicine and health care stuff"

Russia is willing to make sacrifices, true, and we should be willing too. It will be a little colder and a little more expensive. So what. Are we really that weak? Maybe they will sell it to China. Good, let them. The point is to show them we will make do without their gas and it's not a card they can play.

Yes, Ukraine is kind of a kleptocracy. The conflict isn't some consumer **** about who's the good guy and whose the bad guy. Russia needs to be stopped because they won't stop on their own. If they get away with Ukraine, they will just keep going west until they hit resistance or the Atlantic, whichever happens first.

I can understand if Americans or somesuch don't want to get involved in another conflict far away they don't understand. But especially for us Eastern Euros, this is not only a matter of self preservation, but dignity and soul. If we let Ukraine fall without doing all that is in our power to prevent it, then maybe we deserve the Moscow knout.
 
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Nodice83

Knight
WBWF&SNWVC
I doubt the Ukrainian military can do much. The Russians are far superior, attacking on multiple fronts with the entire military arsenal.
It's a big country but they only need to conquer the largest cities and take over parliament.
Ukrainians may actually do two things surrender or bleed out. When it will move to guerilla in the cities this will be a bloody mess but may end up inflicting heavy casualties on Russians as well. I wish them all to stay safe and pity the victims, but on the other hand, part of me wishes they could resist a little longer. The longer it takes - Putin will have a bigger headache.
I can understand if Americans or somesuch don't want to get involved in another conflict far away they don't understand. But especially for us Eastern Euros, this is not only a matter of self preservation, but dignity and soul. If we let Ukraine fall without doing all that is in our power to prevent it, then maybe we deserve the Moscow knout.
Couldn't agree more but self-preservation is exactly what's at stake here and if that is not enough - I don't know what is.

EU should bring out their "heavy cannons" (sanctions) and cut Russia and BELARUS off, as @kurczak said, from everything, everything, and everyone. This is at least what they can do...

[/SPOILER}
 
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eddiemccandless

Knight at Arms
WBNWVC
If they get away with Ukraine, they will just keep going west until they hit resistance or the Atlantic, whichever happens first.
This doesn't seem realistic to me. I have seen varying estimates but at most Russia has 200k troops in Ukraine right now. That's comparable to how many troops the US had in Iraq, which has a population comparable to Ukraine but is smaller (around 2/3rds of the territory that Ukraine has). I think Russia will have a hard time keeping hold of Ukraine, let alone move forward to invade other countries.
 
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