Ukraine Today

[cwr]

Bowman, I am ignorant of the situation here; but why would Russia be supporting Transnistria if Moldova is already part of the Commonwealth of Independent States?

 

[Cyborg Eastern European]

Leash?

 

[crodio]

I thought that Transnistrians wanted to be annexed by Ukraine in the beginning? Or they just wanted to create the only country proportionally slimmer than Chile?

 

[Mage246]

Uh... yeah. Wow. You don't know anything about Transnistria, do you? They're a Russian puppet statelet.

 

[The Bowman]

Bowman, I am ignorant of the situation here; but why would Russia be supporting Transnistria if Moldova is already part of the Commonwealth of Independent States?

First of all, the purpose and the status of the CIS is highly questionable among the memeber states. The CIS was created right after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and it included almost all the ex-Soviet republics. Judging by this move, we can aready gather the main idea behind this "commonwealth". When the War in Transnistria erupted in 1992 (it involved the independent Moldovan state against separartists supported openly by Russia), Moldova was already a member, but Russia didn't really seem to care that much about that.

From our experience, this organization has proved to be a great tool in keeping the Russian sphere of influence in eastern Europe and preventing the member states from expanding their foreign affairs in the West.

To sum this up, we shouldn't take the CIS as an eastern analogue of the EU. It's just a rope which holds the ex-Soviet republics closer to Russia.

@Crodio: Not really, but you're pretty close. In the early 90's, the Ukraine played a major role in supporting Transnitria and freezing the conflict. They had many volunteers fighting by the side of Russia/separatists and even let the Russian troops cross their country. Now, the Ukrainians are harvesting the results of their very own work.

Regarding the "independence" of Transnistria: After Moldova declared its sovereignity in 1990, Transnistria made the same move, in an attempt to remain in the Soviet Union. After the USSR collapsed in 1991, it became a bridgehead for Russia. It was also obvious that the Ukraine had its own interests in this region.

 

[rebelknight]

Sometime i feel like Russia is like the random abusive relative who everyone is scared of offending.
When he enter the room, everyone shut up except for the kid who had enough, followed by said kid getting the belt and put back in line by the patriarch. 

 

[Krik]

Then what's the US? The drunken sheriff who's only gonna step in and do something once a couple of Russia's children have died?

 

[Tralfaz]

Pretty much?

 

[rebelknight]

Then what's the US? The drunken sheriff who's only gonna step in and do something once a couple of Russia's children have died?

Naa, that would require for the abused children to give a monetary reason for America to care.

 

[Mage246]

More like the neighborhood mob boss, who doesn't really give a **** what the abusive relative does unless it affects his bottom line or it is so obvious that it embarrasses him in front of the other mob boss.

 

[rebelsquirrell]

More like the neighborhood mob boss, who doesn't really give a **** what the abusive relative does unless it affects his bottom line or it is so obvious that it embarrasses him in front of the other mob boss.

Does that mean 1778 was the Don of freedom? 

 

[Dryvus]

Then what's the US? The drunken sheriff who's only gonna step in and do something once a couple of Russia's children have died?

And shoots the dog, and the neighbours kid, and runs over some old people after leaving.

 

[Anthropoid]

So how are those sanctions working out? Has Russia surrendered yet?

Mage, you there?

 

[Mage246]

So how are those sanctions working out? Has Russia surrendered yet?

Mage, you there?

Seems like you need a refresher-

To some people, anything less than immediate total victory is nothing.

In the long run, over years, sanctions might sting Russia a bit, but in the span of time it will take Russia to achieve its objectives, sanctions are insignificant.

[....]

Bottom-line, we are all better off if we deal in reality. Reality is sanctions have, at best, a very low likelihood of achieving such a 'downshift' compared to a credible threat of military intervention. One must honestly be willing and able to follow through on either the softer or harder diplomatic strategy in order to not be shown to be a hypocrite. But in the case of sanctions, it is much easier to surreptitiously back-peddle out of a hostile economic relationship than it is to back-peddle out of military intervention. In a year, when some significant chunk of Ukraine has effectively been annexed and the unrest, and disagreement within Ukraine itself has led to more transitions in the government and possibly a new pro-Russian regime, sanctions will not matter any more. Once the crisis dies down, sanctions can easily be reversed or made irrelevant without any loss of 'ratings' among the American voter.

ADDIT: and I agree with you that Western "sanctions" against Russia are a joke. It does NOT interdict Russian efforts on the ground right now, which is what is needed to stop the situation from escalating and destabilizing. In the long, LONG run, yeah sure, if truly harsh sanctions were in place and kept in place (and not violated by ANYONE) for a long time, it could hurt Russia (some). But that is irrelevant. This crisis will be over in a year, long before sanctions have really had any chance to harm Russia. The only "honest" responses the West could have made were: (a) ah, we don't care, do what you want Russia, which de facto, is what sanctions amount to; or (b) Russia, we are totally serious now: back off or WAR.

What are the options here?

[....]

2. Sanctions
Pros: Imposes significant economic and political costs on Russia for continuing its current course of action. May over time cause Russia to stop giving support to rebels.
Cons: Russia can keep the conflict at a low level as long as they still have the will to do so.

[....]

Option 2 is the best you're gonna get from the US, and we're dragging Europe along on that already. Complaining about it doesn't do anything to change the situation.

Living in a partisan bubble where everything is Obama's fault simply because the existing solution doesn't immediately resolve the problem does not mean that it is not the best available option.

Current situation - stalemate. Sanctions continue, over a longer time frame than you pretended they would (according to *you*, crisis would be over in a year). Russia has not annexed Eastern Ukraine. Russia continues to keep conflict at a low level. Situation has not escalated and destabilized. No Pro-Russian regime in Ukraine. All previous predictions by me have been proven accurate, while yours continue to appear delusional.

You will no doubt try to re-spin this like the ideologue that you are, and pretend that I claimed that sanctions would certainly send Russia packing. This will immediately fall flat on its face because it never happened. I present Russian draw down as only one of a number of potential results of sanctions, and never claimed that it was the most likely. I consistently explained that sanctions are a slow weapon that require time to have an impact, and that the goal here is to make Russian involvement painful (which in turn will slowly sap their will to remain), not to compel immediate withdrawal. I have repeatedly stated that Russia can continue the conflict at a low level for a substantial period of time as long as they have the will to do so. You are the one who claimed that there would be no such time available, and that sanctions would not succeed in buying any additional time. You have been proven *wrong*.

 

[RalliX]

I consistently explained that sanctions are a slow weapon that require time to have an impact, and that the goal here is to make Russian involvement painful (which in turn will slowly sap their will to remain), not to compel immediate withdrawal. I have repeatedly stated that Russia can continue the conflict at a low level for a substantial period of time as long as they have the will to do so. You are the one who claimed that there would be no such time available, and that sanctions would not succeed in buying any additional time. You have been proven *wrong*.

Well for one thing, so far nationalism in Russia has doubled over and Putin's approval has also increased tremendously.
Leave it to Russians to call for national sacrifice when **** goes down.

Fact is their resolve is only being steeled by the sanctions, making them approve of a conflict which they see as standing up to a imperialistic western aggression. Only an evil government would inflict such economic harm upon common Russians because of some freedom fighters getting in their way.

Or at least that's what's being blared out of every state owned or mouthpieced news agency.(Read, damn near all of them now)
It's working too. Putin would not lie, would he? So now they have a new sacred war against American Obamafascism.

Thing is, I'm not sure Russia wants to invade the rest of Ukraine in the first place. It seems they're only using the conflict as a negotiating tool to make sure the Ukrainians don't join the EU or NATO. They turn up the heat whenever they move closer to the west.
I don't think anything will change until something significant happens, like Ukraine attempting to formally join the EU or NATO

 

[Cyborg Eastern European]

...which they can't, because as was stated in the first 50 pages of the thread, those two don't do disputed territory lands.
Nice Catch-22.

 

[PinCussion]

...which they can't, because as was stated in the first 50 pages of the thread, those two don't do disputed territory lands.
Nice Catch-22.

Even though Putin can't really do anything against it without some kind of consequences, unless he's willing to take the risk or that the EU or NATO stay passive even though it goes against their ideals.

So things could go to hell even if Ukraine managed to become a member of either NATO or the EU or both.

Catch-22 and/or Murphys law indeed.

 

[AreJohn]

Let's have a new crimean war, this time with double the dysentry! 
And some good old fashioned 1800's engraving style propaganda.

 

[TheVideoGameInn]

I don't think Russia will withdraw. Putin doesn't seem like the kind of man who would want to lose his massive ego and personality cult. The guy's office has gold doors, I mean come on.

 

[Wellenbrecher]

Let's have a new crimean war, this time with double the dysentry! 
And some good old fashioned 1800's engraving style propaganda.

Only just now saw the post.
The French rooster cock at the start cracked me up.