The fighting, which has been taking place in Eastern Ukraine for over three months have remained largely ignored by the French press – with the obvious exception of the still not elucidated destruction of flight MH 17. When the TV channel Fr2 sent a journalist in Donetsk, it was only to report some shelling, not attributed to anyone (but once), when it is widely known that Kiev’s forces have heavily shelled urban areas. These combats have been described by the Ukrainian government as an “anti-terrorist” operation, which is an absurdity. The combatants in Eastern Ukraine are members of an independence movement, who may be qualified as separatists, but they are certainly not “terrorists”, and the use of such vocabulary is telling a lot about the state of mind reigning in Kiev. Sources of information are rare. The official Ukrainian sources (from the Ministry of Defence), do not contain much as far as verifiable (or not verifiable…) information is concerned, besides roaring propaganda communiqués. The sources of the insurgents of Eastern Ukraine are also chock-full with propaganda. But they also contain information, which is, sometimes, verifiable . . .
Much has been said during these past days about units from the regular Russian army. The “proofs” of their presence are frequently claimed but so far inexistent[2]. This does not mean that there are no such troops, or no “advisers”. The presence of the latter is probable. But it is strange that the Ukrainian loyalist forces have remained incapable of providing any proof . . .
[Insurgent] forces are equipped with materiel seized from army bases at Donetsk or Lugansk, but also with captured materiel (“Grad” rocket launchers, heavy mortars, tanks…) abandoned in large quantity by the Ukrainian Army during defeats in July and August 2014 . . .
The present situation seems to be characterized, since August 18th, by the wearing out of the offensive of the forces loyal to the Kiev government, and by a string of tactical victories on the side of the insurgents. The Kiev forces seem to have failed to cut in two the territory held by the insurgents and to retake control of the Russo-Ukrainian border. The losses they suffered seem to be quite heavy, including the complete destruction of several combat units[3]. The insurgent militias seem to detain at least a hundred of prisoners of war. But an even greater number have surrendered to Russian forces on the Russian side of the border. . . .
It is striking that the manoeuvres of the loyalist forces seem to have been dictated by
(a) Political will to retake Lugansk and Donetsk as quickly as possible. This determination has led to some “pushes” in situations where the flanks of the engaged units were not protected, which has made it possible for the insurgents to cut them off from their rear bases and to encircle them, and then to destroy them. Moreover, insurgent groups are operating in the region of Kharkov, attacking the logistics of the loyalist forces. This could be the harbinger of much more serious troubles in the Kharkov region. . .
If the military situation stabilizes as it seems to be, or if it turns to the advantage of the insurgents, the Kiev government will face a dilemma, which it cannot resolve. Either it will recognize the situation, but then one will be moving towards a de facto partition of Ukraine for, henceforth, the populations will no longer accept a « Ukrainian » solution, or it will keep the conflict burning, but then Ukraine will be practically deprived of electricity because a large amount of the coal used to this end comes from Donetsk and from the area surrounding it. Pursuing the war during the winter of 2014-2015 will make it ever more unpopular with the Ukrainian population . . .
It is then urgent therefore that combats cease as fast as possible and that an accord be found between the Kiev government and the insurgents, confirming the de facto autonomy of the regions of Lugansk and Donetsk, while keeping them formally inside Ukraine . . .