Strategic loss?

[NJSQRL]

Ok I know that when you win tournaments the next one you participate in that town will give you better odds and you make less money from betting... I also know that if you lose the next tournament in that town when you go for a third your odds of winning will go down giving you more favorable bets on yourself... What I want to know is what is the best time to intentionally throw a tournament (think feast here) to maximize your betting ability in the next one?

I was flying through tournaments in Sargoth and won 6 straight (most of the Jarls are still recovering so they go down quick) and my winnings bottomed out but then good ole Ragnar got in a lucky swing or I was slow to block... not sure which but he took me out in the second to last round.

The next tournament I went to place my wager (I have it upped to 250 max bet) and I did not catch the odds but it said my winnings would be 10500 denars if I won  That is more than I have ever seen from a tournament... actually more than I usually get total from a tournament.

So this has me wondering... what is it about losing that makes your odds of winning go down so much? Is it the round? Is it the number of fighters that were in that round? Is it a combination of the two? Or maybe I have just come across some wierd little quirk?

 

[tashim72]

[quote author=NJSQRL]The next tournament I went to place my wager (I have it upped to 250 max bet)...[/quote]

I would guess, partly, it's because you've tuned it... maybe it affected a total win sum?

 

[NJSQRL]

[quote author=NJSQRL]The next tournament I went to place my wager (I have it upped to 250 max bet)...

I would guess, partly, it's because you've tuned it... maybe it affected a total win sum?
[/quote]

I know I tuned it but it doesn't really do anything like this... all it does is allow me to bet more than 100 denars. It does not in any way (at least as far as I know)  allow me to have some goofy odds. All it does is say allow me to be playing for 3,250 rather than 1,300 but at the added cost of an extra 150 of my denars.

I know that winning and losing changes your odds... what I am curious about is when the best time to lose is so the next time out you have massively crazy stacked against you odds... perfect for betting on yourself.

Call it fixing a fight if you will...

 

[killer-blead]

You can lose a fight in the tournament to get better odds but you can also just wait a couple of days before doing any tournament again. From my own experience I've also noticed that the odds might be low in one town but great in another time (often in a different faction).

 

[NJSQRL]

You can lose a fight in the tournament to get better odds but you can also just wait a couple of days before doing any tournament again. From my own experience I've also noticed that the odds might be low in one town but great in another time (often in a different faction).

From what I have seen the odds are always the same the first time you do a tournament in any given town, its the consecutive tournaments in the same town that lower your odds... first from 13-1 to 4-1 then they do slowly raise over time. What I also have experienced is that if I lose a tournament in a town that I had just won one in (again think feast here... I spam them for cash at times) I notice that your odds come back up slightly but it was never the same odds...

What I am trying to get at I guess is the formula for calculating this. Does what round you lost on have any bearing? Is it how many participants in that particular fight? Or is there some other factor here that I am not thinking of?

I want to know what the "optimal" point is to take a dive for the same reason anyone would fix a fight.... to make money.