I'm pretty sure I get the math, thanks for clearing it up though, especially what you mean by intercepts.
If I understand right,
1) The intercepts aren't meaningful because the actual damage dealt does not go negative, a fact that is ignored by this model. I think this is effectively selling cutting damage short because it's saddled with a greater baggage of doing "negative damage".
2) Multiplying by armor is an arbitrary thing to do. It's not clear that this is, as it were, objective, but seems a rather subjective way to boost the importance of armor. The resultant damage is already a function of armor (and nominal damage) anyway. Why does it matter that the damage was dealt vs armor or not? If we're interested in the overall performance of the weapon, let's measure it directly (ie, the damage), instead of multiplying it by armor.
It's possible I'm misinterpreting something here, or just didn't consider it carefully enough...
The other thing is, at any given point, you're not fighting an "average" enemy. You're most likely to be fighting an unarmored target (as much of the AI armies are low tier, and a lot of high tier troops are helmet-less). It's arguable whether doing well vs soft targets in say 90% (random guess) of your fights is worth doing poorly vs the few hard targets you run into, but combining those two distinct cases into an average misses them both.
What *would* be really interesting is at which point the resultant damage is equal for each type vs a high armor target. It's clear that lots of damage is good vs soft targets (which usually means cutting), but when is it worth it to pull out, say, a military pick instead of a heavy sabre, is to me the meaningful question. Do you do that if you're going to attack a rhodok sharpshooter, or does it only become worthwhile for a swadian knight/sergeant etc.