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It may also be somewhat dependent on difficulty settings, with things below "Bannerlord" (what setting do Custom Battles use?) not having these sorts of sniper shots happen as often.
Custom battles definitely use realistic. Are you on the latest versions? Because I seem to remember it being like that but I feel like the last few times of been playing it's actually been reasonable and I'm rarely getting hit unless I get within 100m and run in a straight line.

Just look up archery against moving targets, an experienced archer can lead shots pretty well even against fast targets, and considering bows were also frequently used to hunt, theoretically they'd be used to hitting a running target at similar speeds to a horse.
 
However, gives me the possibility to express my opinion that shields do not need a nerf at all. Many archers and wannabe twohanded users during history surely discovered that shields were an unfair advantage for their users, therefore shields were used. They were one of the main reasons that twohanders and archers did not rule the battlefields from the invention of shields in the Bronze Age till the advent of the firearms (one of the last of such events being for example the battle of Flodden where the heavy use of pavises, and some good armor, nullified any effect of the English bowmen on the Scottish central battle during it's attack).
The English infantry were equipped with traditional polearms, mostly bills which were their favoured weapon. There was also a large contingent of well-trained archers armed with the English longbow.[54]

The English won that battle. This is a terrible example for why not to use polearms or bows for shields. The Scots in that battle would also not have been using shields, but polearm weapons.
"Flodden was essentially a victory of the bill used by the English over the pike used by the Scots. "

"An official English diplomatic report issued by Brian Tuke noted the Scots' iron spears and their initial "very good order after the German fashion", but concluded that "the English halberdiers decided the whole affair, so that in the battle the bows and ordnance were of little use."
 
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