Russian-UK diplomatic Incident

[Beny]

Since this is pretty much dominating the news in the UK, I thought it could have its own thread to see what our Europoors and Merifags have to think on the subject.

TL;DR Last week a former Russian spy who worked with MI6 during the late 90s and early 00s, was attacked by chemical weapons in the small English town of Salisbury. Sergei Skripal had been convicted in 2004 by the GRU for treason, but was released in a very cold war style prisoner exchange in 2010. He has lived a quiet life in England ever since.

At the time of writing, the UK has expelled 23 Russian diplomats, frozen some Russian assets and made a few other empty gestures. The EU is mostly standing with the UK and the US has also shown support. 

The Guardian
Russia Today
New York Times
Al Jazeera

 

[Duh]

For some reason I always think of this guy when something ridiculous happens

Obviously, it is doubtful that he is related to this particular incident, but the basic notion that someone within the russian federation acted... let's call it independently... seems plausible to me.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/10/sergei-skripal-salisbury-poisoning-putin

“The Russian state is a strange construction,” said Sir Andrew Wood, a former British ambassador to Russia, now an associate fellow at Chatham House. “The FSB is not a monolithic organisation. There are elements within it like the GRU, which is a sort of rival to the FSB.”

Many within the FSB are ultranationalists. The assassination of a traitor shortly before this week’s presidential election would have made a nice gift for one of their most famous alumni, President Vladimir Putin, who is seeking to win 70% of the vote.

 

[Beny]

Would they really risk an international incident to help with an election that they can't even loose? Seems absurd to me.

 

[Duh]

Would they really risk an international incident to help with an election that they can't even loose? Seems absurd to me.

It isn't (just) about helping the election. It is about ego, pride, nationalism, revenge, power and fear. Not to mention that the majority of the russian public seems to believe that this is a western false flag operation.

 

[Bluehawk]

The GRU is not "within" the FSB or the SVR; one is military and the other two are civilian, but he's right that they're got a rivalry going.

 

[Kharille]

If Putin really wanted to kill the two russians, they could've used a toilet brush, manufactured in Russia.  Russian brand anyone?  Either that or impale them with a bottle of smirnoff.  Just to get the message clear.

 

[Osviux]

I had hoped for more severe sanctions to be enacted by the UK... declaring Russia a terrorist state, placing restrictions on their economy, that sort of thing. I'm disappointed.

 

[Arvenski]

Would they really risk an international incident to help with an election that they can't even loose? Seems absurd to me.

Dude, this is Russia you're talking about.

 

[Kentucky 『 ＨＥＩＧＵＩ 』 James]

Posting to watch.

Russia's weird reactionary foreign relations seem to be aimed at the UK for the most part. Correct me if I'm wrong. The BBC has been targeted by a long campaign of putinbots, both reactionary and liberal, and the russian embassy for the UK regularly tweets out some truly bizzare comments. I wonder what the aim is, if there even is one, or if Russian ultranationalists perceive the UK as the biggest target behind germany.

 

[kurczak]

Would they really risk an international incident to help with an election that they can't even loose? Seems absurd to me.

- Hollywood producers are just insane, this one over there killed a writer just to prove a point.
- Jesus, what was his point?
- That he can kill a writer.

Substitute producers with Russia and writers with, ehm...anyone?

 

[Dystopian]

Its a worldwide Judaeo-Bolshevik conspiracy!

 

[Jhessail]

UK has very little trade with Russia, so there isn't much they can do. And since the UK is busy burning bridges with the EU, the chances of May convincing rest of Europe to extend sanctions is pretty much nil. US isn't going to do anything either, because one day after Rex Tillerson said that Russia was behind the attack and should be punished, Trump fired him without warning.

Not to mention that the majority of the russian public seems to believe that this is a western false flag operation.

Yeah, I know few Russians personally, who live outside of Russia, but they still watch Russian TV and talking world politics with them can be so bizarre. Like they live in an alternate dimension.

 

[kurczak]

They are not even close to being each other's largest trading partner, but the trade is not insignificant either. The problem is that the UK is in a chronic trade deficit generally and with Russia specifically and the structure of the trade is not favorable. UK exports to Russia mostly "high" tech things like cars and machinery, which have a large added value, but can ultimately be replaced by someone else Germany. The imports from Russia, however, is mostly, you guessed it, oil and then coal, gold, platinum and other more or less strategic resources that you can't shop around for as much.

Balance of payments, direct foreign investment and The City's role is a where the problem is really is though imo. Russian oligarchs own like a half of London, they routinely donate to Tories mostly, but they can be quite flexible if needed. The City, trying to defend its role as Europe's #1 exchange and financial against Euronext is definitely not excited by the idea of freezing and boycotting the humongous sums of Russian petro-ruble capital, thereby effectively donating it to Euronext and Duetche Borse.

 

[Kentucky 『 ＨＥＩＧＵＩ 』 James]

A lot of IKEA stuff seems to be made in Russia, including this one brand of glass which I've seen in just about everybody's house. There's on on the desk in front of me right now.

edit: scratch that they're made in Italy now. Never surrender. #brexit

 

[kurczak]

You people used to rule the waves and now you consider IKEA a high end product. For shame.

 

[AreJohn]

Posting to track.

This situation is just weird. Why would the Russian gubbermints (if it is them) use such a detectable manner of offing and ex-agent now when they could've done it so much more discretely and while he was in custody years ago?

 

[Kentucky 『 ＨＥＩＧＵＩ 』 James]

Because the aim probably wasn't just to kill him, it was to create a row with Britain that Britain has no way of responding to besides flaccid denouncements. Also in Russia this is reported as some kind of false flag, using the same reflexive "there's no logical way Russia would do this" arguments.

Russia is the progenitor of a new kind of political engagement which is more like layers and layers of deception. Much of what Moscow does is completely unconventional and seemingly self-destructive, but it serves their interests in a way that's difficult to easily pin on them because of how ridiculous they are. The putinbots are one example, the state-funded neo nazis are another, and the outright provocativity of state organisations on social media is yet another.

Most of this stuff can be traced back to deliberate Russian policies and the evidence is very strong, but trying to counter it is near impossible because of how ridiculous it all is. Twitter is swarming with putinbots, both far right and russia-sympathetic leftist, who have an insane amount of reach, but most people are unlikely to believe any of it.

 

[AreJohn]

So what you're saying is we should secede from the United Kingdom?

 

[Kentucky 『 ＨＥＩＧＵＩ 』 James]

The entire UK should secede from the UK and defect to Luxembourg to re-join the EU.

 

[AreJohn]

And then secede again and defect to Switzerland.