Nukes nukes nukes nukes nukes!

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There you go, calling people Mad.  :ohdear:
His moves are very rational from the perspective of his own survival. His nukes are the cornerstone for his isolationist policy and work their magic internally as well, since he needs that siege mentality.
Unfortunately I can't read his mind, but he's been more rational than some people living in big white houses.

He's about to force the Americans to the negotiating table on his terms. How's that mad?
 
Jhessail said:
Yet there are no checks and balances in the DPRK system.

Not in the democratic sense, but it's pretty clear he isn't a complete autocrat, given the various factions within the DPRK who are split of matters of unification and foreign policy, not to mention the military which is Kim's biggest fear, according to leaked documents and many defectors.

You have to be really careful about screaming "nuclear war!!!" with North Korea because the equivalent of the alt-right in South Korea has a vested interest in spreading alarmist stories about the Kim regime, and tabloids and even broadsheets across the world lap them up without bothering to verify the sources (which are usually non-existent). This nuke situation is part of a cycle between the North and its neighbours for decades, but suddenly because Donald Trump is responding with similar inflammatory language, the press is taking it more seriously and in a more alarmist tone than I think is warranted.
 
Just the other day I was reading on 38north an article by an 80-year old geezer how the NKans could launch a nuke above the US from a barge offshore and EMP the hell out of half the US. While he was a famous EMP warning dude in his days, I think people at old age tend to become alarmist doomsayers.
Note that I'm not saying that Jhess is a year over 60.
 
I'm only commenting because I'm sitting in Seoul and I can see North Korea over the bay. Not been nuked yet, but they have a couple of hours still.

You can have your serious thread back now.
 
Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
There you go, calling people Mad.  :ohdear:
His moves are very rational from the perspective of his own survival. His nukes are the cornerstone for his isolationist policy and work their magic internally as well, since he needs that siege mentality. Unfortunately I can't read his mind
Nonsense. If he was completely rational, he would be improving the lot of his people, using China as an example. His father didn't do it and he isn't doing it either. You're again guilty of impressing your own and values upon him.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
He's about to force the Americans to the negotiating table on his terms. How's that mad?
Ah okay, I guess there is no point in further dialogue with you. You're obviously completely out of touch with reality. North-Korea is more isolated than ever before and is certainly unable to dictate terms to anyone.

Jacobhinds said:
Not in the democratic sense, but it's pretty clear he isn't a complete autocrat, given the various factions within the DPRK who are split of matters of unification and foreign policy, not to mention the military which is Kim's biggest fear, according to leaked documents and many defectors.
Unless I've missed something, which is of course completely possible, he has pretty much wiped out any high level opposition to his regime in the last few years. If you know of any opposition groups that are still alive and in positions of power, do share.

Jacobhinds said:
You have to be really careful about screaming "nuclear war!!!" with North Korea because the equivalent of the alt-right in South Korea has a vested interest in spreading alarmist stories about the Kim regime, and tabloids and even broadsheets across the world lap them up without bothering to verify the sources (which are usually non-existent). This nuke situation is part of a cycle between the North and its neighbours for decades, but suddenly because Donald Trump is responding with similar inflammatory language, the press is taking it more seriously and in a more alarmist tone than I think is warranted.
It's not just Trump, or at least not only because of that. DPRK has accelerated their missile tests in the last 12 months and this latest nuclear test is the biggest they have. They have raised the stakes. That's the main reason for the alarm. This isn't the usual cycle of DPRK complaining about American imperialism and shelling some border post. I agree that yelling that the sky is falling is pointless but trying to brush this under the carpet with a shrug of the shoulders and a laconic statement of "business as usual" isn't productive either.

I also was not screaming nuclear war in my post above. I clearly laid out three broad possibilities and stressed the importance of the diplomatic option.
 
Jhessail said:
Unless I've missed something, which is of course completely possible, he has pretty much wiped out any high level opposition to his regime in the last few years. If you know of any opposition groups that are still alive and in positions of power, do share.

As I said, the regime as a whole is terrified of the military, and many of the defences around pyongyang are designed to protect against its own army. The soldiers are deliberately underfed and undersupplied but official documents show the regime deems them a threat. I mean what else is going to stop them if they all decide to revolt at once? They're stationed all over the country.

Official documents also state that the regime is trying to crack down on elements within the government sharing and promoting anti-kim propaganda, and military leaders turning a blind eye to soldiers watching arab spring videos.

Admittedly a lot of this is from a Japanese documentary I watched, but the newspaper which organised the leak has been a reliable japanese broadsheet since the Boshin War. Unfortunately only the vaguely nuclear alarmist parts of the quite substantial leak, like a few documents which are written in pompous regimespeak, have been published in English language newspapers. The rest is mostly untranslated. Even the nuclear documents, which outline official NK policy, only want the nukes to be used as a deterrent.
 
Jhessail said:
Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
He's about to force the Americans to the negotiating table on his terms. How's that mad?
Ah okay, I guess there is no point in further dialogue with you. You're obviously completely out of touch with reality. North-Korea is more isolated than ever before and is certainly unable to dictate terms to anyone.
They should allow betting on the forum.
In a few weeks time, after a further round of dubiously effective UN sanctions, there will be an outbreak of diplomacy. The difference from the last time is that Kim has long-range nukes on the table. He won't be "dictating terms", he'll have a stronger hand, because the US needs to deal with him urgently, it doesn't matter how they try to sugarcoat it.
What's your reality-based, obviously-worthy-of-dialog, totally-not-military-science-fiction prediction?
 
Jhessail said:
Now, while even 1 kiloton bomb is quite devastating, it's not that much worse than conventional weaponry. But a 100 kiloton bomb is certainly a "real" nuke and can cause tremendous damage. I've used Alex Wellerstein's nukemap to give you some examples, using an air-bust model for a 100 kT blast:

Seoul
Couple of interesting extra stats you can get from that in the advanced options.

Estimated fatalities:
362,750
Estimated injuries:
1,629,630

Humanitarian impact. Within the 10 psi radius of this detonation there were also:
hospitals/medical facilities: 36
fire stations: 8
schools/educational facilities: 97
places of worship: 164
 
And that's just a single 100 kT warhead, Austyboo. Use five of them to cover Seoul and the fun multiplies exponentially.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
They should allow betting on the forum.
In a few weeks time, after a further round of dubiously effective UN sanctions, there will be an outbreak of diplomacy. The difference from the last time is that Kim has long-range nukes on the table. He won't be "dictating terms", he'll have a stronger hand, because the US needs to deal with him urgently, it doesn't matter how they try to sugarcoat it.
There's that old saying which you should have heeded:
"It is better to remain silent at the risk of being thought a fool, than to talk and remove all doubt of it." -Maurice Switzer.

But I like how you've already moved the goalposts. We went from:
He's about to force the Americans to the negotiating table on his terms. How's that mad?
to
He won't be "dictating terms", he'll have a stronger hand, because the US needs to deal with him urgently, it doesn't matter how they try to sugarcoat it.

Of course, your first statement was completely bonkers and you're barely reigned the crazy in. See, Iran had something to negotiate with exactly because it did NOT have a nuke yet. That meant that the US, Israel and the Gulf States still had a chance to reach their main goal through negotiations. And it worked. North-Korea has nothing to offer. They already have nukes, so they can't promise to put the genie back in the bottle, not to mention that nobody believes them after they did exactly that stunt back in the 1990s. Oh I guess you don't remember that? The Wikipedia page was too boring to read completely? Furthermore, it is unlikely that the DPRK regime would even consider giving up the nukes at this stage. So they really have nothing to offer in negotiations - only demand. Yet demanding is pointless because everybody knows that if they put any threats into actual action, they just committed collective suicide. So no, DPRK has not become stronger and certainly has not forced anyone to negotiate on their own terms. Should I draw you a picture, since there were so many words here?

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
What's your reality-based, obviously-worthy-of-dialog, totally-not-military-science-fiction prediction?
Try actually reading my post then, if that's not too taxing for you. You probably should've read it before you started commenting but oh well. Errare humanum est, perseverare autem diabolicum.



Jacobhinds said:
Admittedly a lot of this is from a Japanese documentary I watched, but the newspaper which organised the leak has been a reliable japanese broadsheet since the Boshin War.
So translate it yourself! How amazing would that be.
 
You are all too easily abusive.
Also wrong in your criticism. It's dull to waste time on this, but hopefully you can see the error of your ways.

So, here we go, bear with me folks.
Jhessail said:
Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
They should allow betting on the forum.
In a few weeks time, after a further round of dubiously effective UN sanctions, there will be an outbreak of diplomacy. The difference from the last time is that Kim has long-range nukes on the table. He won't be "dictating terms", he'll have a stronger hand, because the US needs to deal with him urgently, it doesn't matter how they try to sugarcoat it.
There's that old saying which you should have heeded:
"It is better to remain silent at the risk of being thought a fool, than to talk and remove all doubt of it." -Maurice Switzer.

But I like how you've already moved the goalposts. We went from:
He's about to force the Americans to the negotiating table on his terms. How's that mad?
to
He won't be "dictating terms", he'll have a stronger hand, because the US needs to deal with him urgently, it doesn't matter how they try to sugarcoat it.
I stand by both statements and they are consistent with each other. No goalposts moved anywhere. You tried to insert your strawman phrase "dictating terms" to attack it more easily, because you are very naughty.
I'm sure you can at least try to understand that Kim used his nukes escalation to both bring the Americans to negotiate and improved his negotiating position.

Jhessail said:
Of course, your first statement was completely bonkers and you're barely reigned the crazy in. See, Iran had something to negotiate with exactly because it did NOT have a nuke yet. That meant that the US, Israel and the Gulf States still had a chance to reach their main goal through negotiations. And it worked. North-Korea has nothing to offer. They already have nukes, so they can't promise to put the genie back in the bottle, not to mention that nobody believes them after they did exactly that stunt back in the 1990s. Oh I guess you don't remember that? The Wikipedia page was too boring to read completely? Furthermore, it is unlikely that the DPRK regime would even consider giving up the nukes at this stage. So they really have nothing to offer in negotiations - only demand. Yet demanding is pointless because everybody knows that if they put any threats into actual action, they just committed collective suicide. So no, DPRK has not become stronger and certainly has not forced anyone to negotiate on their own terms. Should I draw you a picture, since there were so many words here?
Calling people crazy, then making an argument is very, very naughty.
You are saying that NK has nothing to offer in negotiations. This is clearly wrong and I'm saddened by this failure of imagination and knowledge.
The US will start by demanding a complete de-nukization, but this clearly won't happen.
Eventually, the US will have to accept NK as a nuclear power and work on limiting NK's nuclear arsenal, capabilities and nuclear program, just as with any other nuclear-armed countries. There are plenty of options here and hopefully an eventual deal would be struck.
Now, please apologize and admit you didn't think this through.

Jhessail said:
Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
What's your reality-based, obviously-worthy-of-dialog, totally-not-military-science-fiction prediction?
Try actually reading my post then, if that's not too taxing for you. You probably should've read it before you started commenting but oh well. Errare humanum est, perseverare autem diabolicum.
I've read your post. The greatest part of it is a military fantasy because KILOTONS WILL KILL YOU A LOT, with a short part saying that diplomacy is the only option, but Kim is CRAZY and NOTHING CAN REALLY BE DONE. It's literally hysterical, much like the popular media stories following the escalation.
You should be ashamed of baseless alarmism and acknowledge your pro-military bias.
 
@Temuzu and Jhessail: I'm going to interrupt my lurking here just to say that you know, it is possible to have a discussion without this many snide remarks. I know it's not really my business, I'm not a regular in these discussion threads, but Jesus. If this is all it takes to make you two start throwing insults around, it's no wonder you both seem to get muted so much.
 
Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
You are all too easily abusive.
When you make flighty claims based on nothing while also making snide remarks, people tend to react negatively. You're the one who started this bull****, don't start whining about it if you can't take it.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
Also wrong in your criticism. It's dull to waste time on this, but hopefully you can see the error of your ways.
As always, nothing of actual substance to back up your ridiculous claims so better start the waahbulance and cry out.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
I stand by both statements and they are consistent with each other. No goalposts moved anywhere.
Liar.
"He's about to force the Americans to the negotiating table on his terms" is certainly not the same thing as "He won't be "dictating terms". You literally said in your first post that he will be dictating the terms. That what it means when someone has to negotiate on YOUR TERMS. You are thus dictating them. Basic logic 101 here. You realised your first flippant statement to have been ridiculous, so you moved the goal posts and made a different claim. Now you're being scummy and lying about it.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
You tried to insert your strawman phrase "dictating terms" to attack it more easily, because you are very naughty.
This is what I love about you spineless weasels. I used your own words and direct quotes, yet you cry about strawmans. How stupid do you think I am? This is such stupid, easily caught lying.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
I'm sure you can at least try to understand that Kim used his nukes escalation to both bring the Americans to negotiate and improved his negotiating position.
No he doesn't. The nukes are a deterrent to prevent an invasion that North-Korean conventional military would be unable to stop.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
Calling people crazy, then making an argument is very, very naughty.
Again with the lies. I did not say you were crazy, I stated that your claims were crazy. But I'm not surprised that you're lying about that too. So many lies in such a short time, no wonder you're tripping up on them.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
You are saying that NK has nothing to offer in negotiations. This is clearly wrong and I'm saddened by this failure of imagination and knowledge.
You haven't actually shown WHAT DPRK could offer at the negotiation table. Which they haven't even proposed, by the way. You claim that DPRK is doing all this to get a stronger hand at a negotiating table that they usually refuse to enter in the first place and the few times they actually have entered, they have never budged on anything. But in your fantasy la-la-land, facts don't matter, I guess.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
There are plenty of options here and hopefully an eventual deal would be struck. Now, please apologize and admit you didn't think this through.
As I said earlier, Iran had something worthwhile to negotiate over. Similarly, the disarmament talks between US and USSR were possible because both countries benefited from it somewhat equally. By comparison, DPRK will never dismantle its nuclear program, that much is obvious to everyone, yet at the same time it is the only thing worth negotiating about. ROK and USA will not stop their military exercises, nor will ROK stop the missile defence program. Finally, DPRK has zero credibility because they have broken previous treaties numerous times. You might want to brush up on your history:
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

But I'm actually curious. What sort of deal you think could be made?

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
I've read your post.
Maybe now you actually did, but your first two responses certainly ignored most of my post. Not to mention your question. So, you were wilfully ignoring elements of that post, then? I'm not surprised.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
The greatest part of it is a military fantasy because KILOTONS WILL KILL YOU A LOT
Funnily enough, in a thread titled "Nukes, nukes, nukes", where discussion has primarily focused on facts about nuclear weapons and their effects, the majority of my post was explaining the DPRK nuclear capabilities. Funny that you attack me on staying on topic while you're doing your best to derail it into some wishy-washy utopistic nonsense.

Rodrigo Ribaldo said:
with a short part saying that diplomacy is the only option, but Kim is CRAZY and NOTHING CAN REALLY BE DONE. It's literally hysterical, much like the popular media stories following the escalation. You should be ashamed of baseless alarmism and acknowledge your pro-military bias.
Again, if Kim were as rational as you claim he is, he could have taken a page from the Chinese playbook. Or the Cuban playbook. Funny how those countries have managed to keep their leadership structures largely intact while also improving the lot in life of their citizens. Diplomacy is the only sane option but it is very unlikely to achieve any sort of permanent solution that would satisfy everyone. ROK has been bribing DPRK for years - didn't help.

You should really stare into a mirror - you're the one who has repeatedly made baseless claims, lied about what you said, and accused me of all sorts of things.



Calradianın Bilgesi said:
I don't understand why Kim is a madman. Crushing opposition and oppressing your own people are nowhere close to being signs of madness.
Shades of grey. Erdogan is not isolating Turkey from the rest of the world despite crushing opposition and oppressing his own people. Just to make one example.
 
Hey, I don't get muted as much. Or at all, apart from a joke we arranged with Goker.

@Jhessail: I've said my own piece, now we wait and see how history unfolds.
BTW, it's not a nuke polishing thread, we are serious people here.

Arvenski said:
@Temuzu and Jhessail: I'm going to interrupt my *** here just to say that you know, it is possible to have a discussion without this many ***. I know it's not really my business, I'm not a regular in these discussion threads, but Jesus. If this is all it takes to make you two start *** around, it's no wonder you both seem to get *** so much.
I'm not a bloody fash, pal. Got a bit of a warning for insulting women, but that's how I roll.
 
So, I was planning to go to Tokyo in a couple of weeks, but the whole Kim situation is starting to make me somewhat nervous and rethink it.

Am I being paranoid?
 
"North Korea fires missile from Pyongyang, media reports say, as Japan warns residents to take cover."

According to my BBC News phone notification.

rG2QmUV.png
 
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