Is the persuation chance shown correctly?

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Adrivan

Sergeant
Ok, so I was trying to get a wife. I wanted someone specific so I had to save scum.

The first step said 81% chance of success. Ok, i click on it, it's a success.
Then the second step, says 84% chance of success. I click on it, it says ineffective, so I reload.

I do it again, first step is success, second step again is ineffective (with 84% chance). I reload again... and i get exact same results. I think I reloaded about 7-8 times, and the 1st option is always success, and the 2nd option is always ineffective. At about the 9th reload, the second option was a success as well. There is NO WAY in hell that the 84% success chance shown in the UI is correct... unless im missing something?
 

Adrivan

Sergeant
It's not 'totally' random, that would mean 50-50 chance of success or fail, but the UI clearly shows a 84% chance of success. There seems to be a bug. First attempt is always success, second attempt is ineffective unless you load 10 times, with success chance of 84%. The real rate is probably closer to 10%, not 84%.
I did not look into the code so I cannot say how the system works, but in my experience passing time can change outcomes. not always positiv, but at least you can notice changes in the outcome.
 
It's not 'totally' random, that would mean 50-50 chance of success or fail, but the UI clearly shows a 84% chance of success. There seems to be a bug. First attempt is always success, second attempt is ineffective unless you load 10 times, with success chance of 84%. The real rate is probably closer to 10%, not 84%.
That´s why I wrote "more or less".

Yes, it´s not totally random but it doesn´t really matter if you choose a 84% chance or 15% chance. You´ll have to save scumm anyway in most cases. I´ve done it with 15% chances first try and I´ve done it with a 84% chance first try but on the other hand I also needed a lot of tries with high chances (see my link) and with low chances.

So for me, it´s more or less totally random :wink:
 

Adrivan

Sergeant
That´s why I wrote "more or less".

Yes, it´s not totally random but it doesn´t really matter if you choose a 84% chance or 15% chance. You´ll have to save scumm anyway in most cases. I´ve done it with 15% chances first try and I´ve done it with a 84% chance first try but on the other hand I also needed a lot of tries with high chances (see my link) and with low chances.

So for me, it´s more or less totally random :wink:

My only wish is for them to show the real chance of success, I think the UI is wrong. To fail 7-8 times in a row with 84% chance is extremely improbable, i should buy a lottery ticket if this works as intended.
 
My only wish is for them to show the real chance of success, I think the UI is wrong. To fail 7-8 times in a row with 84% chance is extremely improbable, i should buy a lottery ticket if this works as intended.
I agree.

But this topic doesn´t seems to be important enough so I guess it won´t change.

I even would prefer a "hard coded" system like:

"You can only marry X if you have charm Y and/or relation Z with her father" or something like this.
 

redmark

Squire
Ok, so I was trying to get a wife. I wanted someone specific so I had to save scum.

The first step said 81% chance of success. Ok, i click on it, it's a success.
Then the second step, says 84% chance of success. I click on it, it says ineffective, so I reload.

I do it again, first step is success, second step again is ineffective (with 84% chance). I reload again... and i get exact same results. I think I reloaded about 7-8 times, and the 1st option is always success, and the 2nd option is always ineffective. At about the 9th reload, the second option was a success as well. There is NO WAY in hell that the 84% success chance shown in the UI is correct... unless im missing something?
Did the second 84% chance also have any negative (red) traits displayed? Those don't seem to be incorporated into the %, but get applied separately.
 

Adrivan

Sergeant
Did the second 84% chance also have any negative (red) traits displayed? Those don't seem to be incorporated into the %, but get applied separately.
Yes, it had a red trait. There were no options available without red traits. If this is the issue, then i understand, but they should at least fix the percentage in the UI.
 

redmark

Squire
Yes, it had a red trait. There were no options available without red traits. If this is the issue, then i understand, but they should at least fix the percentage in the UI.
It would probably be more fitting to remove the % figure and give some visual approximation of how well a particular line might be received (like a colour coded smiley/frowny face), and also make it clearer whether the positive/negative traits are included in that assessment, or applied separately. (Included would be more straightforward, but I don't mind trying to balance a 'good' chance without positive traits versus an 'average' chance with positive traits). Of course, we'd all have a pretty good idea what %s the visual reflected, but it would feel more natural.
 

Dreed89

Sergeant
"You can only marry X if you have charm Y and/or relation Z with her father" or something like this.

Me too. This idea sounds really good in comparison to the current not-so-random random marriage.

This idea is even improvable to the point where different factions/lords can have different quests/conditions for marrying their daughter.

For example, to marry a Sturgian, the condition would be to have won some amount of battles where as for a Vlandian, it would be being a tournament champion at least twice.
 
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