Information about developments at snowballing problem

[Spinozart1]

Finally ran a 1.6.1 20 year test.

Spoiler: Year 5 Map

Spoiler: Year 5

Spoiler: Year 10 Map

Spoiler: Year 10

Spoiler: Year 15 Map

Spoiler: Year 15

Spoiler: Year 20 Map

Spoiler: Year 20

Spoiler: Year 20 Clans

Spoiler: Wealth Status Over 20 Years

So this was an interesting run. Even with the hotfix fixes we do see the majority of lords still slipping into the poor category. Something that puzzles me is the majority of Khuzait lords are very poor although their land has been almost untouched. I mean it makes sense because khuzaits new faction con is 20% less taxes, but i am surprised they are essentially as poor as factions that have lost but are still able to hold on to territory. Seems to certainly stop them from snowballing so maybe this is a good thing, just stuck out to me.

It is clear though that winning factions do start to get into the Rich category, so i don't think its fair to say that recent changes have sunk the world economy, even if it is true in the first 10 years.

I still hold the opinion that clans should only get very poor once their faction has been essentially defeated and they can't be carried by other lords funding them. A castle should be able to support a clan having poor wealth, A town should be able to support a clan having Average wealth, two towns should maintain a rich status for AI clans (most kings start with 2 towns).

Good job!
Quite similar run than mine.
As usual Aserai and Vlandia stands in top 3.
And Battania is again wrecked up...
Vlandia defenitely has the advantage by starting with 11 clans. And Battania is the one to face the constant menace.
Aserai indeniabely has the geographical advantage...

 

[Dabos37]

Good job!
Quite similar run than mine.
As usual Aserai and Vlandia stands in top 3.
And Battania is again wrecked up...
Vlandia defenitely has the advantage by starting with 11 clans. And Battania is the one to face the constant menace.
Aserai indeniabely has the geographical advantage...

This should be something new related to 1.6.1, because Battania was pretty strong and always able to wreck Vlandia and Sturgia in every campaign I played before 1.6.1.

@Blood Gryphon nice information as always mate, thanks for sharing it. Would be possible to check the amount of settlements and prosperity for these rich clans in late game?

 

[Apocal]

Something that puzzles me is the majority of Khuzait lords are very poor although their land has been almost untouched. I mean it makes sense because khuzaits new faction con is 20% less taxes, but i am surprised they are essentially as poor as factions that have lost but are still able to hold on to territory.

They have lower prosperity and hearths. Multiple economy nerfs that didn't do anything to stop snowballing but now it is hitting even harder than before so they stay poor.

 

[Blood Gryphon]

Good job!
Quite similar run than mine.
As usual Aserai and Vlandia stands in top 3.
And Battania is again wrecked up...
Vlandia defenitely has the advantage by starting with 11 clans. And Battania is the one to face the constant menace.
Aserai indeniabely has the geographical advantage...

This should be something new related to 1.6.1, because Battania was pretty strong and always able to wreck Vlandia and Sturgia in every campaign I played before 1.6.1.

Only 2 tests, but it is interesting to see Battania go from one of the top kingdoms to the bottom. They actually did really well at the start but lost all progress to rebellions and seemed to never be able to build up their armies again after that.

@Blood Gryphon nice information as always mate, thanks for sharing it. Would be possible to check the amount of settlements and prosperity for these rich clans in late game?

Yeah i'll take a look once in a bit.

They have lower prosperity and hearths. Multiple economy nerfs that didn't do anything to stop snowballing but now it is hitting even harder than before so they stay poor.

Makes sense why they are poor. What doesn't is that they haven't lost any major portion of their kingdom and even maintained their strength, but maybe they fall hard in the next few years.

On another note, rebellions are definitely working. 6 recruited rebel clans in 20 years.

 

[Apocal]

Makes sense why they are poor. What doesn't is that they haven't lost any major portion of their kingdom and even maintained their strength, but maybe they fall hard in the next few years.

I'm running the 1.6.1 test now.

 

[Dabos37]

They have lower prosperity and hearths. Multiple economy nerfs that didn't do anything to stop snowballing but now it is hitting even harder than before so they stay poor.

"nerfs that didn't do anything to stop snowballing"

Could you please elaborate on this? Khuzaits are pretty much balanced since the new cultural traits rebalancing. Even when snowballing was fixed, khuzaits were still dominating in all my campaigns until they got the -20% tax income. Now while they are poor, they are still pretty much able to defend all their territory without problems in every playthrough while do not wrecking everyone anymore.

 

[Apocal]

"nerfs that didn't do anything to stop snowballing"

Could you please elaborate on this? Khuzaits are pretty much balanced since the new cultural traits rebalancing. Even when snowballing was fixed, khuzaits were still dominating in all my campaigns until they got the -20% tax income. Now while they are poor, they are still pretty much able to defend all their territory without problems in every playthrough while do not wrecking everyone anymore.

The economy nerfs didn't do anything to stop their snowballing. They were made last year, around this time.

(not gonna quote directly because I don't want to ping mexxico for this, it is old)
"-less initial prosperity at Khuzait towns and less initial hearth at some Khuzait villages."

https://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php?threads/diplomacy-developments.429850/post-9523725

The nerfs to prosperity have been left in place. Which actually made Khuzait towns somewhat better at being besieged back when it took -20 food and high prosperity was required to starve defenders. That changed to -8 now so it isn't as big a deal but Khuzait towns can still hold way bigger garrisons early on.

 

[Dabos37]

The economy nerfs didn't do anything to stop their snowballing. They were made last year, around this time.

(not gonna quote directly because I don't want to ping mexxico for this, it is old)
"-less initial prosperity at Khuzait towns and less initial hearth at some Khuzait villages."

https://forums.taleworlds.com/index.php?threads/diplomacy-developments.429850/post-9523725

The nerfs to prosperity have been left in place. Which actually made Khuzait towns somewhat better at being besieged back when it took -20 food and high prosperity was required to starve defenders. That changed to -8 now so it isn't as big a deal but Khuzait towns can still hold way bigger garrisons early on.

Oh well, I thought you were talking about the -20% tax income. The truth is that khuzaits need some kind of debuff because having more cavalry is still giving a clear advantage in the campaign map, so Khuzaits could be easily continuing wrecking everyone if not by the economy debuffs. Maybe these prosperity changes are no longer necessary and maybe they actually did not help, but for me it is pretty clear that they still have the cavalry advantage, so the economic penalty for Khuzaits is a good thing to keep in the game thinking on how to avoid them getting huge in every campaign.

 

[Spinozart1]

Khuzaits are still a threat in every campaign despite their low wealth.
Luxury means nothing to them, they just want to conquer the world

 

[Blood Gryphon]

@Dabos37 here ya go

Kingdom	Clan	Fief	Prosperity
Aserai	Banu Hulyan	Sanala	11212​
Aserai	Banu Hulyan	Quyaz	7616​
Aserai	Banu Hulyan	Tubilis Castle	1340​
Aserai	Banu Qild	Hubyar	6302​
Aserai	Banu Qild	Sahel Castle	2059​
Western	Comnos	Zeonica	7371​
Western	Comnos	Jalmarys	5553​
Western	Comnos	Poros	3934​
Western	Comnos	Onica Castle	1112​
Western	Varros	Ortysia	6659​
Vlandia	dey Meroc	Sargot	6009​
Vlandia	dey Meroc	Galend	6183​
Vlandia	dey Meroc	Talivel Castle	1585​
Vlandia	dey Tihr	Pravend	10230​
Vlandia	dey Tihr	Drapand Castle	1595​
Vlandia	dey Arromanc	Jaculan	7704​
Vlandia	dey Fortes	Ocs Hall	8069​
Vlandia	dey Fortes	Verecsand Castle	1794​
Vlandia	dey Folcun	Dunglanys	6929​
Vlandia	dey Folcun	Druimmor Castle	720​
Vlandia	dey Folcun	Ormanfard Castle	778​
Vlandia	dey Folcun	Aster Castle	1308​

 

[Dabos37]

@Dabos37 here ya go

Kingdom	Clan	Fief	Prosperity
Aserai	Banu Hulyan	Sanala	11212​
Aserai	Banu Hulyan	Quyaz	7616​
Aserai	Banu Hulyan	Tubilis Castle	1340​
Aserai	Banu Qild	Hubyar	6302​
Aserai	Banu Qild	Sahel Castle	2059​
Western	Comnos	Zeonica	7371​
Western	Comnos	Jalmarys	5553​
Western	Comnos	Poros	3934​
Western	Comnos	Onica Castle	1112​
Western	Varros	Ortysia	6659​
Vlandia	dey Meroc	Sargot	6009​
Vlandia	dey Meroc	Galend	6183​
Vlandia	dey Meroc	Talivel Castle	1585​
Vlandia	dey Tihr	Pravend	10230​
Vlandia	dey Tihr	Drapand Castle	1595​
Vlandia	dey Arromanc	Jaculan	7704​
Vlandia	dey Fortes	Ocs Hall	8069​
Vlandia	dey Fortes	Verecsand Castle	1794​
Vlandia	dey Folcun	Dunglanys	6929​
Vlandia	dey Folcun	Druimmor Castle	720​
Vlandia	dey Folcun	Ormanfard Castle	778​
Vlandia	dey Folcun	Aster Castle	1308​

Thank you!

I have been checking the information that you have shared and something does not make much sense to me:

Money inflation: All AI clans are below 280K at year 20, so I really do not think we have money inflation issues currently in 1.6.1 version. Keep in mind that having +280K dennars or so, clans are considered very rich, and clans are Rich as much in your test (not even one Very Rich), even when some of them have towns with extremely high prosperity. Maybe a clan having 150K or so could be considered as money inflation, but I do not think so. Especially when the player is able to get 200K completing only one smithing order in just one day.

On the other hand, I have started a new testing campaign, but I want to show something different compared to your tests. I want to show what happens in the first 200 days of all my campaigns in 1.6.1. I am showing the dey Meroc clan (Derthert) as an example, but the same is happening with almost all the ruler clans in 1.6.1.

** Day 1

Clan Strength: 1179 (keep in mind that most of the lords start with half depleted parties the first day, and then they start recruiting units until they fill their parties)
Wealth: Rich
Money: 169514

Settlements - Prosperity:

Sargot - 4500
Galend - 1902
Talivel Castle - 772


** Day 60

Clan Strength: 1449
Wealth: Average
Money: 51904

Settlements - Prosperity:

Sargot - 4101
Galend - 2135
Talivel Castle - 899


** Day 131

Clan Strength: 1116
Wealth: Average
Money: 46865

Settlements - Prosperity:

Sargot - 4120
Galend - 2387
Talivel Castle - 1058


** Day 153:




As you can see, Derthert is just barely able to sustain a pretty small party, especially keeping in mind that his party max size is close to 300 men. The player is able to sustain a similar party at clan Tier 3 without problems (talking about the current 90-100 men Derthert's party).

So, I am asking myself the following questions:

- What is the reason behind keeping AI clans with only 50K gold average? Especially when it is extremely easy for the player to keep a much bigger treasury in early game, after the first 100 days.
- Is the AI supposed to feel totally underpowered when comparing AI clans with the player clan?
- Is it all about just for making it easier for the players to recruit AI clans when creating their own kingdom?

Now please screens below:

- Derthert party when Wealth: Average, having just 40K dennars or so

Derthert2

Image Derthert2 hosted in ImgBB

ibb.co

- Derthert party after I gave him 250K (he was still recruiting more troops when I took the screen):

Derthert1 hosted at ImgBB

Image Derthert1 hosted in ImgBB

ibb.co

So please, just give more money to AI clans and let them feel strong. 40K should not be considered "Average" when lords are not even able to fill 40% of their party capacity.

 

[Blood Gryphon]

Awesome analysis @Dabos37, i'm left with the same questions.

@SadShogun is there something we are missing on why it would be good to keep lords wealth this low?

I think we could all agree at the least initial Ruler clans should be able to maintain a rich status with their initial holdings. A kings party should be the best in their kingdom.

 

[Apocal]

Awesome analysis @Dabos37, i'm left with the same questions.

@SadShogun is there something we are missing on why it would be good to keep lords wealth this low?

I think we could all agree at the least initial Ruler clans should be able to maintain a rich status with their initial holdings. A kings party should be the best in their kingdom.

Are you just looking for clans' wealth on these tests? I'm running another two and gonna send the final results either way but it's faster if I don't have to add up settlements.

 

[Duh_TaleWorlds]

@lottendill and @SadShogun have been looking into the recent changes. They identified 3 changes that reduced the income of clans and reverted them on a test branch. We compared test results with the reductions and without them and decided to revert them because

• The reverted branch did not showcase a clear inflation trend line in 40 year tests.
  • The results were potentially more volatile than before ("potentially" because the game can vary notably between play throughs), but the money does not drop as far as in the current version nor does it go beyond the game start gold value.
• The reverted branch does much better on clan poverty indicators that we define for these tests.
  • The reverted branch also does much better on party fullness and troop quality indicators for ai clans.

Naturally, we consider this an ongoing process and will continue to evaluate balance of income & expense for players and AI.

The changes in question are SettlementCommissionRateVillage, fortificationTaxRatio, GetExpectedLootedItemValue. They will be part of a future patch.

 

[Apocal]

@lottendill and @SadShogun have been looking into the recent changes. They identified 3 changes that reduced the income of clans and reverted them on a test branch. We compared test results with the reductions and without them and decided to revert them because

• The reverted branch did not showcase a clear inflation trend line in 40 year tests.
  • The results were potentially more volatile than before (potentially because the game can vary notably between play throughs), but the money does not drop as far as in the current version nor does it go beyond the game start gold value.
• The reverted branch does much better on clan poverty indicators that we define for these tests.
  • The reverted branch also does much better on party fullness and troop quality indicators for ai clans.

Naturally, we consider this an ongoing process and will continue to evaluate balance of income & expense for players and AI.

The changes in question are SettlementCommissionRateVillage, fortificationTaxRatio, GetExpectedLootedItemValue. They will be part of a future patch.

Sweet, thanks.

The changes in question are SettlementCommissionRateVillage, fortificationTaxRatio, GetExpectedLootedItemValue. They will be part of a future patch.

@Dabos37 your wish has been granted.

 

[Dabos37]

@lottendill and @SadShogun have been looking into the recent changes. They identified 3 changes that reduced the income of clans and reverted them on a test branch. We compared test results with the reductions and without them and decided to revert them because

• The reverted branch did not showcase a clear inflation trend line in 40 year tests.
  • The results were potentially more volatile than before (potentially because the game can vary notably between play throughs), but the money does not drop as far as in the current version nor does it go beyond the game start gold value.
• The reverted branch does much better on clan poverty indicators that we define for these tests.
  • The reverted branch also does much better on party fullness and troop quality indicators for ai clans.

Naturally, we consider this an ongoing process and will continue to evaluate balance of income & expense for players and AI.

The changes in question are SettlementCommissionRateVillage, fortificationTaxRatio, GetExpectedLootedItemValue. They will be part of a future patch.

<3

Not sure about how these changes specifically impact the game, but even if we have now a bigger snowballing score, I think that +80% lords having half filled parties is actually much worse.

I think that keeping the game challenging is something pretty good which increase a lot the replayability for the game in the long term. I will provide some tests after receiving these reverted changes. Thanks!

 

[Dabos37]

Sweet, thanks.

@Dabos37 your wish has been granted.

I prefer to think “our wishes have been granted” ?

I cannot think about someone liking to see these kings’ parties with 90 men.

 

[Blood Gryphon]

@Duh_TaleWorlds @SadShogun @lottendill Thank you guys a bunch. The continued collaboration is reassuring.

Good job with testing @Dabos37 @Spinozart1 @Apocal (preemptive thanks, snowball score would be great but do you)

 

[Spinozart1]

@lottendill and @SadShogun have been looking into the recent changes. They identified 3 changes that reduced the income of clans and reverted them on a test branch. We compared test results with the reductions and without them and decided to revert them because

• The reverted branch did not showcase a clear inflation trend line in 40 year tests.
  • The results were potentially more volatile than before ("potentially" because the game can vary notably between play throughs), but the money does not drop as far as in the current version nor does it go beyond the game start gold value.
• The reverted branch does much better on clan poverty indicators that we define for these tests.
  • The reverted branch also does much better on party fullness and troop quality indicators for ai clans.

Naturally, we consider this an ongoing process and will continue to evaluate balance of income & expense for players and AI.

The changes in question are SettlementCommissionRateVillage, fortificationTaxRatio, GetExpectedLootedItemValue. They will be part of a future patch.

Awsome!
Thank you for taking time to share with us the situation

 

[Duh_TaleWorlds]

The changes should be on live 1.6.1.